[h=1]What Sharps are Betting in NFL Week 12[/h]Three NFL games are in the books already, but sports bettors still have a lucky 13 more to study this weekend. Byes are a thing of the past now in the 2012 campaign. We’ll have 16 games per weekend through the end of the season. Let’s see how the sharps (professional wagerers) are handling this week’s NFL market challenges.
OAKLAND AT CINCINNATI: Oddsmakers anticipated sharp interest in fading Oakland…a tired, bad team whose defense has faded in recent weeks. Cincinnati opened a half point above a critical number at -7.5 and 48, before getting bet up to -8 and 49.5. Support for a team and an Over is usually tied to a soft opposing defense. This game is sitting right in the basic strategy teaser window. You can put the Bengals in two-teamers and move them below both the 7 and the 3 with the six-point teaser adjustment.
PITTSBURGH AT CLEVELAND: Sharps are anticipating a tight defensive struggle here. Charlie Batch will replace the injured Byron Leftwich (who replaced the injured Ben Roethlisberger). Sharps look to prefer Batch to Leftwich. An opener of pick-em has been bet up to -1 or -1.5. The opening total of 36 has been bet down to 34.5 though. That combo represents support for Pittsburgh’s defense against young Brandon Weeden on a field that’s seen low scoring games all season. If the line moves up to Pittsburgh -1.5 and -2 everywhere, that would put the home underdog Browns in the teaser window. You can bet them with a six point adjustment moving up past the 3 and the 7.
BUFFALO AT INDIANAPOLIS: Not much sharp interest in this game. Indy has been getting more media respect. But, Buffalo played well vs. Miami last week, while Indy’s soft defense makes it hard to trust them as a favorite. This game opened at Indy -3 on its home field and stayed there. The total has been bet down from 52 to 51.
DENVER AT KANSAS CITY: Denver opened at -10, and was bet up to -10.5 even though there are old school sharps who automatically bet double digit underdogs. The Broncos continue to get respect from sharps under Peyton Manning. It’s telling that the Chiefs didn’t drop back to +10 after the move. Some traditionalists will still support the dog. We’re hearing that many sharps still believe Kansas City has its eye on the #1 draft pick.
TENNESSEE AT JACKSONVILLE: Tennessee drew support here at the opening line of -3. We’re now seeing -3.5 in many places. It takes a lot of money to move off a key number…though less in a game that the public is likely to ignore. Squares won’t have any interest here. Our sources tell us sharps believe Chad Henne is due for a letdown performance after his big game in Houston last week. That plus Jacksonville’s perceived lack of home field advantage is in play here. The Jags have been awful at home all season.
MINNESOTA AT CHICAGO: No line at press time because Jay Cutler’s status is still up in the air. We can assure you that the sharps who pounded Chicago last week on game day when Alex Smith was a late scratch for San Francisco have little interest in betting on Jason Campbell again if he gets the call for the Bears. We’re hearing the totals guys are looking Under if Campbell does get the start.
ATLANTA AT TAMPA BAY: More interest here on the total than the team side. An opener of 48 has been bet up to 49.5 and 50. Tampa Bay’s defense has struggled often in recent action, but their offense continues to surprise. Atlanta opened at pick-em. We’re seeing pick-em or Atlanta -1 in most places. Sharps who were riding the Bucs early largely believe oddsmakers have now adjusted.
SEATTLE AT MIAMI: Sharps respect Seattle, but they’re not comfortable laying points on the road when teams from the West play early games in the East. This line opened at Seattle -3 and stayed there. Sharps will be looking to bet Seattle in value spots down the stretch when they’re back home again.
BALTIMORE AT SAN DIEGO: Baltimore opened at -2, but has been bet down to -1 or -1.5. Sharps see this as a tough schedule spot for the Ravens…who had to play a brutal rivalry game last Sunday Night in Pittsburgh…THEN travel to the West Coast. Sharps were looking at San Diego in two-team teasers too. We expect many stores to drop this game to one to keep it out of the teaser window on game day.
SAN FRANCISCO AT NEW ORLEANS: Support has come in on New Orleans, who opened at +2 but is down to +1. Our sources say that’s mostly because of improved play from the Saints in recent weeks…rather than a vote against new Niners quarterback Colin Kaepernick. Sharps saw a lot of Kaepernick when he played for Nevada in college. Those who were skeptical of him as a starter last week regretted it. Though, this is his first road start…and some sharps do consider that a meaningful angle to attack.
ST. LOUIS AT ARIZONA: Arizona opened at -3 despite their in flux quarterback situation. Sharps bet St. Louis fairly heavily, driving the line down to Rams +2 or +1.5. Sharps have had mixed success with St. Louis this season. Many lost on them vs. the Jets last week, but have won at other times. The Rams will be in the teaser window as a dog if the price doesn’t move any more.
GREEN BAY AT NY GIANTS: The Giants opened at -2.5, as sharps anticipated Green Bay interest. Instead, sharps hit the home team off a bye week (something they’ve been doing a lot of in recent weeks), driving the number up to a field goal. The total is up two points from 49 to 51…which tells you the weather is probably going to be nice in this much anticipated Sunday Night affair. Late November just isn’t what it used to be for guys who liked betting Unders in cold weather cities.
CAROLINA AT PHILADELPHIA: Nick Foles has struggled badly in place of Michael Vick. So, Carolina opened as a road favorite here despite their poor record. Sharps bet the Panthers! An opener of -1 is up to -2.5. The places that moved to Carolina -3 did see Eagles money come in at that point. Philadelphia will be in the teaser window if the line stays below three. Looks like there will be a lot of teaser options for round robins this weekend. Of course, many sharps start off a NEW week with Monday Night teasers that they leave open-ended until the following week’s likes come out. It will be interesting to see how the public bets this game on Monday. Squares love betting Monday Night football, but they’ll have to decide which slumping squad they’ll want to support.
OAKLAND AT CINCINNATI: Oddsmakers anticipated sharp interest in fading Oakland…a tired, bad team whose defense has faded in recent weeks. Cincinnati opened a half point above a critical number at -7.5 and 48, before getting bet up to -8 and 49.5. Support for a team and an Over is usually tied to a soft opposing defense. This game is sitting right in the basic strategy teaser window. You can put the Bengals in two-teamers and move them below both the 7 and the 3 with the six-point teaser adjustment.
PITTSBURGH AT CLEVELAND: Sharps are anticipating a tight defensive struggle here. Charlie Batch will replace the injured Byron Leftwich (who replaced the injured Ben Roethlisberger). Sharps look to prefer Batch to Leftwich. An opener of pick-em has been bet up to -1 or -1.5. The opening total of 36 has been bet down to 34.5 though. That combo represents support for Pittsburgh’s defense against young Brandon Weeden on a field that’s seen low scoring games all season. If the line moves up to Pittsburgh -1.5 and -2 everywhere, that would put the home underdog Browns in the teaser window. You can bet them with a six point adjustment moving up past the 3 and the 7.
BUFFALO AT INDIANAPOLIS: Not much sharp interest in this game. Indy has been getting more media respect. But, Buffalo played well vs. Miami last week, while Indy’s soft defense makes it hard to trust them as a favorite. This game opened at Indy -3 on its home field and stayed there. The total has been bet down from 52 to 51.
DENVER AT KANSAS CITY: Denver opened at -10, and was bet up to -10.5 even though there are old school sharps who automatically bet double digit underdogs. The Broncos continue to get respect from sharps under Peyton Manning. It’s telling that the Chiefs didn’t drop back to +10 after the move. Some traditionalists will still support the dog. We’re hearing that many sharps still believe Kansas City has its eye on the #1 draft pick.
TENNESSEE AT JACKSONVILLE: Tennessee drew support here at the opening line of -3. We’re now seeing -3.5 in many places. It takes a lot of money to move off a key number…though less in a game that the public is likely to ignore. Squares won’t have any interest here. Our sources tell us sharps believe Chad Henne is due for a letdown performance after his big game in Houston last week. That plus Jacksonville’s perceived lack of home field advantage is in play here. The Jags have been awful at home all season.
MINNESOTA AT CHICAGO: No line at press time because Jay Cutler’s status is still up in the air. We can assure you that the sharps who pounded Chicago last week on game day when Alex Smith was a late scratch for San Francisco have little interest in betting on Jason Campbell again if he gets the call for the Bears. We’re hearing the totals guys are looking Under if Campbell does get the start.
ATLANTA AT TAMPA BAY: More interest here on the total than the team side. An opener of 48 has been bet up to 49.5 and 50. Tampa Bay’s defense has struggled often in recent action, but their offense continues to surprise. Atlanta opened at pick-em. We’re seeing pick-em or Atlanta -1 in most places. Sharps who were riding the Bucs early largely believe oddsmakers have now adjusted.
SEATTLE AT MIAMI: Sharps respect Seattle, but they’re not comfortable laying points on the road when teams from the West play early games in the East. This line opened at Seattle -3 and stayed there. Sharps will be looking to bet Seattle in value spots down the stretch when they’re back home again.
BALTIMORE AT SAN DIEGO: Baltimore opened at -2, but has been bet down to -1 or -1.5. Sharps see this as a tough schedule spot for the Ravens…who had to play a brutal rivalry game last Sunday Night in Pittsburgh…THEN travel to the West Coast. Sharps were looking at San Diego in two-team teasers too. We expect many stores to drop this game to one to keep it out of the teaser window on game day.
SAN FRANCISCO AT NEW ORLEANS: Support has come in on New Orleans, who opened at +2 but is down to +1. Our sources say that’s mostly because of improved play from the Saints in recent weeks…rather than a vote against new Niners quarterback Colin Kaepernick. Sharps saw a lot of Kaepernick when he played for Nevada in college. Those who were skeptical of him as a starter last week regretted it. Though, this is his first road start…and some sharps do consider that a meaningful angle to attack.
ST. LOUIS AT ARIZONA: Arizona opened at -3 despite their in flux quarterback situation. Sharps bet St. Louis fairly heavily, driving the line down to Rams +2 or +1.5. Sharps have had mixed success with St. Louis this season. Many lost on them vs. the Jets last week, but have won at other times. The Rams will be in the teaser window as a dog if the price doesn’t move any more.
GREEN BAY AT NY GIANTS: The Giants opened at -2.5, as sharps anticipated Green Bay interest. Instead, sharps hit the home team off a bye week (something they’ve been doing a lot of in recent weeks), driving the number up to a field goal. The total is up two points from 49 to 51…which tells you the weather is probably going to be nice in this much anticipated Sunday Night affair. Late November just isn’t what it used to be for guys who liked betting Unders in cold weather cities.
CAROLINA AT PHILADELPHIA: Nick Foles has struggled badly in place of Michael Vick. So, Carolina opened as a road favorite here despite their poor record. Sharps bet the Panthers! An opener of -1 is up to -2.5. The places that moved to Carolina -3 did see Eagles money come in at that point. Philadelphia will be in the teaser window if the line stays below three. Looks like there will be a lot of teaser options for round robins this weekend. Of course, many sharps start off a NEW week with Monday Night teasers that they leave open-ended until the following week’s likes come out. It will be interesting to see how the public bets this game on Monday. Squares love betting Monday Night football, but they’ll have to decide which slumping squad they’ll want to support.
$2000.00 -105 Take #233 Atlanta (-1) over Tampa Bay (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 25)
This play is from my NFL 411 System and it is my NFL Game of the Week.
The Falcons are one of the best teams in football. But the oddsmakers have not been treating them like it. They started the season 6-2 ATS before struggling the last two weeks. But last week they beat Arizona despite turning the ball over four times. That is very tough to do. But Atlanta has a lot of All Pro talent on the roster and they can overcome those mistakes. Tampa Bay was getting blown out at Carolina before making a wild comeback. I don't think they will manage that again if they fall behind the Falcons. Tampa Bay ahs won and covered four straight games. But those wins have come against some very weak opponents. This team lost at home to New Orleans and to Washington and I think they are going to struggle with Atlanta's high-powered offense. The Falcons are 23-9-1 ATS in the game after they fail to cover a spread and they are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games against a team with a winning home record. This Atlanta team has been very good on the road under Mike Smith and I think they will get another win here.
$800.00 -105 Take #235 Seattle (-3) over Miami (1 p.m. Sunday, Nov. 25)
The Seahawks had two weeks to prepare for this game. I think they will feel rested and they will beat down the struggling Dolphins. Miami played well early in the year. But they have shown their true colors. They have lost three straight games and Miami has been outgained by its opponents in six straight games. Miami is on a 1-4 ATS skid and they were almost blown out by Buffalo last Thursday night. They were blown out 37-3 in their last home game and Miami is just 22-52-1 ATS in its last 75 home games. Seattle has a strong defense and a great running game. They are 5-1 ATS in their last six games and they should control this one from start to finish.
$400.00 -110Take #222 Cincinnati (-8) over Oakland (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 25)
The Raiders are rebuilding. And they are not very good right now. They are going to continue to struggle and now is not a good time for them to go out on the road. They have lost three straight games by 10 points or more and five of their last six losses have come by 10 points or more. This team is very banged up right now and they do not have the defense to slow down the Bengals passing game. Cincinnati has been strong since its bye week and they blew out Kansas City on the road last week 28-6. I think that they can do the same thing to the Raiders this week. Look for another blowout. The Bengals are 11-4 ATS after a win and the Raiders are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight conference games.
$500.00 -110 Take #229 Tennessee (-3) over Jacksonville (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 25)
The Titans are favored for a reason. They are the much stronger team here and they are coming off of a bye week. Jacksonville is coming off an emotional loss. They lost late in overtime against first place Houston. I think that loss will linger. The Jaguars are going with Chad Henne at quarterback but he has proven that he is an inconsistent starter. The Titans have beaten teams like Detroit, Pittsburgh and Buffalo this year. They played their best game of the season the last time out and this team could have a strong finish to the year. Tennessee will get the job done. Lay the points.
Ace
This play is from my NFL 411 System and it is my NFL Game of the Week.
The Falcons are one of the best teams in football. But the oddsmakers have not been treating them like it. They started the season 6-2 ATS before struggling the last two weeks. But last week they beat Arizona despite turning the ball over four times. That is very tough to do. But Atlanta has a lot of All Pro talent on the roster and they can overcome those mistakes. Tampa Bay was getting blown out at Carolina before making a wild comeback. I don't think they will manage that again if they fall behind the Falcons. Tampa Bay ahs won and covered four straight games. But those wins have come against some very weak opponents. This team lost at home to New Orleans and to Washington and I think they are going to struggle with Atlanta's high-powered offense. The Falcons are 23-9-1 ATS in the game after they fail to cover a spread and they are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games against a team with a winning home record. This Atlanta team has been very good on the road under Mike Smith and I think they will get another win here.
$800.00 -105 Take #235 Seattle (-3) over Miami (1 p.m. Sunday, Nov. 25)
The Seahawks had two weeks to prepare for this game. I think they will feel rested and they will beat down the struggling Dolphins. Miami played well early in the year. But they have shown their true colors. They have lost three straight games and Miami has been outgained by its opponents in six straight games. Miami is on a 1-4 ATS skid and they were almost blown out by Buffalo last Thursday night. They were blown out 37-3 in their last home game and Miami is just 22-52-1 ATS in its last 75 home games. Seattle has a strong defense and a great running game. They are 5-1 ATS in their last six games and they should control this one from start to finish.
$400.00 -110Take #222 Cincinnati (-8) over Oakland (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 25)
The Raiders are rebuilding. And they are not very good right now. They are going to continue to struggle and now is not a good time for them to go out on the road. They have lost three straight games by 10 points or more and five of their last six losses have come by 10 points or more. This team is very banged up right now and they do not have the defense to slow down the Bengals passing game. Cincinnati has been strong since its bye week and they blew out Kansas City on the road last week 28-6. I think that they can do the same thing to the Raiders this week. Look for another blowout. The Bengals are 11-4 ATS after a win and the Raiders are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight conference games.
$500.00 -110 Take #229 Tennessee (-3) over Jacksonville (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 25)
The Titans are favored for a reason. They are the much stronger team here and they are coming off of a bye week. Jacksonville is coming off an emotional loss. They lost late in overtime against first place Houston. I think that loss will linger. The Jaguars are going with Chad Henne at quarterback but he has proven that he is an inconsistent starter. The Titans have beaten teams like Detroit, Pittsburgh and Buffalo this year. They played their best game of the season the last time out and this team could have a strong finish to the year. Tennessee will get the job done. Lay the points.
Ace
$500.00 -105 Take #238 San Diego (PK) over Baltimore (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 25)
The public is all over the Ravens. But I don't think they are the better team here. Baltimore barely beat a banged up Pittsburgh team last week. That was a big win over their hated rivals. And they have to play the Steelers again next week. Those games are more important to Baltimore because they can really bury the Steelers and lock up the division. I don't think they will have the same focus for this week's trip out to San Diego. The Chargers are 9-2 ATS against the AFC and they know they have no shot at the playoffs if they lose this week. San Diego won 34-14 at home as a one-point underdog against the Ravens last December. I think they can do the same thing this week
The public is all over the Ravens. But I don't think they are the better team here. Baltimore barely beat a banged up Pittsburgh team last week. That was a big win over their hated rivals. And they have to play the Steelers again next week. Those games are more important to Baltimore because they can really bury the Steelers and lock up the division. I don't think they will have the same focus for this week's trip out to San Diego. The Chargers are 9-2 ATS against the AFC and they know they have no shot at the playoffs if they lose this week. San Diego won 34-14 at home as a one-point underdog against the Ravens last December. I think they can do the same thing this week
hno:$800.00 -110 Take 'Under' 37.5 St. Louis at Arizona (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 25)
These are two teams with very bad offenses and underrated defenses. There was just 20 points scored in their first meeting this year in St. Louis. And the 'under' is a solid 8-1 in the last nine meetings as these two teams usually slug it out. Arizona is on its third starting quarterback of the season and they have really struggled to move the ball. The Rams have only scored over 20 points two times in the last nine weeks and they do not have a high-powered offense. I see another low-scoring NFC West battle in this one.
1-2-1 on the day -$990
last two games are now showed
Ace
These are two teams with very bad offenses and underrated defenses. There was just 20 points scored in their first meeting this year in St. Louis. And the 'under' is a solid 8-1 in the last nine meetings as these two teams usually slug it out. Arizona is on its third starting quarterback of the season and they have really struggled to move the ball. The Rams have only scored over 20 points two times in the last nine weeks and they do not have a high-powered offense. I see another low-scoring NFC West battle in this one.
1-2-1 on the day -$990
last two games are now showed
Ace
"The system is only as good as it’s weakest link. Sometimes user error applies!"
if you no all the rules and have over 15 diff/veiw of the game and back test a system with a data base going back to 1995....you would know I'm on the right track 11-5-1 this year.
know what you are talking about.........!
I know your system sheet has flaws.
Last week, STL scored 76 ## system points at best........ I had them at 51.
You can spin that any which way tour twisted brain wants and it’s still not a play.
This is one example of 4 so-called system plays this season, and they’re 1-3.
Despite those errors, you have done very well. But just imagine for a second what your record would be,
if had you stuck to the system, and or had the correct numbers.
Again I say subscribers beware..!
Ps. Norv Turner head coach is one of the worst head coaches of all time, not just this season.
Last week, STL scored 76 ## system points at best........ I had them at 51.
You can spin that any which way tour twisted brain wants and it’s still not a play.
This is one example of 4 so-called system plays this season, and they’re 1-3.
Despite those errors, you have done very well. But just imagine for a second what your record would be,
if had you stuck to the system, and or had the correct numbers.
Again I say subscribers beware..!
Ps. Norv Turner head coach is one of the worst head coaches of all time, not just this season.
I dont use the ## sys any more...the new sheet has many more parts.. thats what was missing from the old sheet....Answer me one ?...this weeks numbers look like this to you
only 3 games.... is this the old sheet you have????
| 13 | 12/2/2012 | BUF | 93 |
| 13 | 12/2/2012 | JAC | 60 |
| 13 | 12/2/2012 | CHI | 46 |
| 13 | 12/2/2012 | SEA | 60 |
| 13 | 12/2/2012 | DET | 86 |
| 13 | 12/2/2012 | IND | 67 |
| 13 | 12/2/2012 | GB | 96 |
