[h=1]What Sharps are Betting in NFL Week 11[/h]
Las Vegas sharps are dealing with several betting challenges this week in the NFL. There are backup quarters starting for four different teams. And, other teams are considering quarterback changes after midseason slumps. Let’s see what sharps have been betting thus far in NFL Week 11.
Note that Minnesota, the NY Giants, Seattle, and Tennessee all have byes this week, the final week of byes in the 2012 NFL season. Games are presented in Nevada rotation order.
PHILADELPHIA AT WASHINGTON: This line hasn’t shown any movement. But, it’s sitting on Washington -3.5, which tells you a lot about sharp sentiment by itself. You regulars know that any line that sits for an extended period of time a half point away from a key number like three or seven is telling you something. If sharps liked Philadelphia (and backup quarterback Nick Foles), they would have acted right away. A three-point finish in the NFL is common. The fact that they DIDN’T do that tells you sharps believe Washington is the better team. They’ll wait and see if the public drops the line to three. If not, sharps will either pass the game or invest in Washington on game day. The total has dropped 46 to 44 because of pessimism about Foles after his poor showing as a backup vs. Dallas last week.
GREEN BAY AT DETROIT: Green Bay opened at -3 on the road, and was quickly bet up to -3.5, where it’s stayed since. Once again, no sharp interest on the dog at +3.5. Sharps believe the favorite is the right side in the big picture, and they’ll grab a field goal if they can get it. Note that both Green Bay and Washington had byes last week. Sharps have had good success backing rested teams this season. The opening total of 51 has been bet up to 51.5 or 52 in this indoor attraction.
ARIZONA AT ATLANTA: We did see support for a dog around a key number here. Arizona opened at +10.5. They were bet down to +10, with some places even showing +9.5 as the support continued. That’s not a universal move though…and we’re hearing that some sharps would consider Atlanta at -9.5 because of their quarterback advantage. For the third straight game, that’s a bye team from last week getting early support, as the Cardinals had the week off. The total has come down from 45.5 to 44
TAMPA BAY AT CAROLINA: Sportsbooks will have to decide how to handle this one. There’s been sharp interest in surging Tampa Bay at the opener of -1. Any move higher puts the game in the basic strategy teaser window for underdog Carolina. Games landing on 3 and 7 are so common that sharps would gladly be on Tampa Bay -1 straight and Carolina +7.5 in two-team teasers. The total is up from 47.5 to 48.5 because Tampa Bay has been playing high scoring games lately and weather isn’t likely to be a negative factor for offenses.
CLEVELAND AT DALLAS: Dallas opened in the teaser window at -8, which isn’t something you see too much of any more. There has been some underdog interest on Cleveland, the fourth and final bye team from last week. Maybe sportsbooks aren’t afraid of teasers because they’re hoping fresh Cleveland can spring an upset. No interest from sharps on the total yet. If we don’t mention a total in future games, it’s because sharps have left that option alone. The clearest sentiment in these first few games is that sharps are betting the rest teams off their byes.
NY JETS AT ST. LOUIS: We might have a tug of war spot here, with the sharps generally liking St. Louis at -3 over the imploding Jets, but some buyback hitting the market after moves to Jets +3.5. We’ll see if the weekend brings more bad news from the embattled Jets locker room. We hearing there’s more general support for the Rams, but the percentage players like defensive dogs at +3.5 no matter what the players are saying to reporters.
INDIANAPOLIS AT NEW ENGLAND: Oddsmakers opened New England at -9.5, just a half point below the key number of 10. Did sharps bet the favorite? No! They hit the Colts, bringing the number down to +9 in many spots. It’s very unlikely we’d see a drop to New England -8.5 even if sharps LOVED the Colts because that would put the Pats in the teaser window. All squares betting teasers would want New England -2.5, and books don’t want that kind of exposure. If the public comes in on the Patriots on game day enough to drive the number up to 10, sharps would take the Colts aggressively.
JACKSONVILLE AT HOUSTON: Houston opened at a whopping -16 points. There are some old school sharps who bet every double digit underdog on principal. They were joined by others who thought Houston might be flat off the big Sunday Night victory in Chicago. The number is currently Houston -14.5. or -15 depending on where you shop. The Over/Under has dropped two points from 42.5 down to 40.5 because Jacksonville's offense is so bad, and because Houston has played quick, conservative games as big favorites earlier this season.
CINCINNATI AT KANSAS CITY: No line movements here off openers of Cincinnati -3.5 and 43.5. As we said at the top, a lack of line movement at a line like -3.5 is telling you a lot. Sharps want no part of the home dog Chiefs or they would have gladly taken the hook. This may be the least bet NFL game of the weekend.
NEW ORLEANS AT OAKLAND: The home dog Raiders earned sharp support at the opener of +6.5. The line is now +4.5 or +5 in most places. We’re hearing that this is mostly a bet against the Saints porous defense…figuring that Oakland can either cover the game clean or sneak through the back door in garbage time.
SAN DIEGO AT DENVER: Peyton Manning and the Broncos have earned sharp respect with their continued success. We’ve heard many were impressed with the two straight road covers in Cincinnati and Carolina in what has mostly been a year of the underdog in the NFL. San Diego opened at -7, and was bet up to -8. This creates a headache for sportsbooks because that puts Denver in the teaser window in a spot that would appeal very strongly to the public.
BALTIMORE AT PITTSBURGH: There’s been a huge move in this game because of Ben Roethlisberger’s injury. The earliest offshore numbers before the injury showed Pittsburgh -3. When it looked like he’d be out, the Vegas openers were near pick-em. Sharps have pounded that all the way to the critical number of Baltimore -3 and passed it. We’re now seeing Baltimore -3.5 on the ROAD in a big divisional game. That tells you how little the sharps think about Byron Leftwich. The total has fallen to 40.5 from early numbers around 45 because Leftwich’s scoring potential seems limited…and because Pittsburgh has been playing low scoring home games all season.
Las Vegas sharps are dealing with several betting challenges this week in the NFL. There are backup quarters starting for four different teams. And, other teams are considering quarterback changes after midseason slumps. Let’s see what sharps have been betting thus far in NFL Week 11.
Note that Minnesota, the NY Giants, Seattle, and Tennessee all have byes this week, the final week of byes in the 2012 NFL season. Games are presented in Nevada rotation order.
PHILADELPHIA AT WASHINGTON: This line hasn’t shown any movement. But, it’s sitting on Washington -3.5, which tells you a lot about sharp sentiment by itself. You regulars know that any line that sits for an extended period of time a half point away from a key number like three or seven is telling you something. If sharps liked Philadelphia (and backup quarterback Nick Foles), they would have acted right away. A three-point finish in the NFL is common. The fact that they DIDN’T do that tells you sharps believe Washington is the better team. They’ll wait and see if the public drops the line to three. If not, sharps will either pass the game or invest in Washington on game day. The total has dropped 46 to 44 because of pessimism about Foles after his poor showing as a backup vs. Dallas last week.
GREEN BAY AT DETROIT: Green Bay opened at -3 on the road, and was quickly bet up to -3.5, where it’s stayed since. Once again, no sharp interest on the dog at +3.5. Sharps believe the favorite is the right side in the big picture, and they’ll grab a field goal if they can get it. Note that both Green Bay and Washington had byes last week. Sharps have had good success backing rested teams this season. The opening total of 51 has been bet up to 51.5 or 52 in this indoor attraction.
ARIZONA AT ATLANTA: We did see support for a dog around a key number here. Arizona opened at +10.5. They were bet down to +10, with some places even showing +9.5 as the support continued. That’s not a universal move though…and we’re hearing that some sharps would consider Atlanta at -9.5 because of their quarterback advantage. For the third straight game, that’s a bye team from last week getting early support, as the Cardinals had the week off. The total has come down from 45.5 to 44
TAMPA BAY AT CAROLINA: Sportsbooks will have to decide how to handle this one. There’s been sharp interest in surging Tampa Bay at the opener of -1. Any move higher puts the game in the basic strategy teaser window for underdog Carolina. Games landing on 3 and 7 are so common that sharps would gladly be on Tampa Bay -1 straight and Carolina +7.5 in two-team teasers. The total is up from 47.5 to 48.5 because Tampa Bay has been playing high scoring games lately and weather isn’t likely to be a negative factor for offenses.
CLEVELAND AT DALLAS: Dallas opened in the teaser window at -8, which isn’t something you see too much of any more. There has been some underdog interest on Cleveland, the fourth and final bye team from last week. Maybe sportsbooks aren’t afraid of teasers because they’re hoping fresh Cleveland can spring an upset. No interest from sharps on the total yet. If we don’t mention a total in future games, it’s because sharps have left that option alone. The clearest sentiment in these first few games is that sharps are betting the rest teams off their byes.
NY JETS AT ST. LOUIS: We might have a tug of war spot here, with the sharps generally liking St. Louis at -3 over the imploding Jets, but some buyback hitting the market after moves to Jets +3.5. We’ll see if the weekend brings more bad news from the embattled Jets locker room. We hearing there’s more general support for the Rams, but the percentage players like defensive dogs at +3.5 no matter what the players are saying to reporters.
INDIANAPOLIS AT NEW ENGLAND: Oddsmakers opened New England at -9.5, just a half point below the key number of 10. Did sharps bet the favorite? No! They hit the Colts, bringing the number down to +9 in many spots. It’s very unlikely we’d see a drop to New England -8.5 even if sharps LOVED the Colts because that would put the Pats in the teaser window. All squares betting teasers would want New England -2.5, and books don’t want that kind of exposure. If the public comes in on the Patriots on game day enough to drive the number up to 10, sharps would take the Colts aggressively.
JACKSONVILLE AT HOUSTON: Houston opened at a whopping -16 points. There are some old school sharps who bet every double digit underdog on principal. They were joined by others who thought Houston might be flat off the big Sunday Night victory in Chicago. The number is currently Houston -14.5. or -15 depending on where you shop. The Over/Under has dropped two points from 42.5 down to 40.5 because Jacksonville's offense is so bad, and because Houston has played quick, conservative games as big favorites earlier this season.
CINCINNATI AT KANSAS CITY: No line movements here off openers of Cincinnati -3.5 and 43.5. As we said at the top, a lack of line movement at a line like -3.5 is telling you a lot. Sharps want no part of the home dog Chiefs or they would have gladly taken the hook. This may be the least bet NFL game of the weekend.
NEW ORLEANS AT OAKLAND: The home dog Raiders earned sharp support at the opener of +6.5. The line is now +4.5 or +5 in most places. We’re hearing that this is mostly a bet against the Saints porous defense…figuring that Oakland can either cover the game clean or sneak through the back door in garbage time.
SAN DIEGO AT DENVER: Peyton Manning and the Broncos have earned sharp respect with their continued success. We’ve heard many were impressed with the two straight road covers in Cincinnati and Carolina in what has mostly been a year of the underdog in the NFL. San Diego opened at -7, and was bet up to -8. This creates a headache for sportsbooks because that puts Denver in the teaser window in a spot that would appeal very strongly to the public.
BALTIMORE AT PITTSBURGH: There’s been a huge move in this game because of Ben Roethlisberger’s injury. The earliest offshore numbers before the injury showed Pittsburgh -3. When it looked like he’d be out, the Vegas openers were near pick-em. Sharps have pounded that all the way to the critical number of Baltimore -3 and passed it. We’re now seeing Baltimore -3.5 on the ROAD in a big divisional game. That tells you how little the sharps think about Byron Leftwich. The total has fallen to 40.5 from early numbers around 45 because Leftwich’s scoring potential seems limited…and because Pittsburgh has been playing low scoring home games all season.
The Packers have struggled to keep Rodgers upright this year, but Detroit is so thin on offense I just do not see them winning this game. Burleson is out and Johnson is banged up. I know the Packers Defense is suspect, but I just do not think the Lions Offense is good enough right now to beat this Packers team even if it is shorthanded. Remember when these teams played last year and Matt Flynn threw for a record. A lot of critics said it was the system and not Rodgers. Aaron Rodgers is going to remember this today. The guy has a chip on his shoulder and strives to be the best. He is going to have a monster game as the Lions Safeties continue to be out of the lineup. Take Green Bay
$400 -105 Take #414 Detroit (+3.5) over Green Bay (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 18)
I like the home underdog in this one. Green Bay has been up and down on the road. They are not as strong offensively this year and their defense has suffered a lot of injuries. I think that Detroit will win this game outright. They can pull just one game behind the Packers if they get this win here. The home team has won five of seven in this series and the underdog has covered the spread in three of four. Detroit is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall and I think that they are going to pull the upset. The public is all over the Packers this week and I think that they are going to get buried by the home underdog.
$800.00 -110 Take #417 Tampa Bay (-1.5) over Carolina (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 18)
Tampa Bay already beat Carolina once this year. They are going to beat them again here. Tampa Bay is as hot as any team in the league right now and they just continue to improve under Greg Schiano. Carolina is a team that is fighting. They are not good in the locker room right now. They lost again last week and this team is ready to quit on this season because they are not going to the playoffs. Cam Newton has gone backwards in his second year. And the Tampa Bay offense is really taking off under Josh Freeman. The favorite is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings and the Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.
$2000.00 -105 Take #422 St. Louis (-3) over New York Jets (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 18)
This play is from my NFL 411 System and it is my Game of the Week.
I like the Rams in this one. They played great last week in their tie with San Francisco. I think that Jeff Fisher will get his team to build off that. This team is starting to come together in Fisher's first year. The Jets are starting to come apart. They were blown out again last week at Seattle and this team has lost three of four games on the road. The Rams beat Arizona, Seattle and Washington at home this year. I think that the Jets are in the same category with those teams. I give the Rams the edge with the quarterback and with the defense. And this team has the better running game behind Steven Jackson. The Rams are on a 7-3 ATS run and the Jets are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games. I will go with St. Louis in this one as they will pull away late in the second half for the cash.
I like the home underdog in this one. Green Bay has been up and down on the road. They are not as strong offensively this year and their defense has suffered a lot of injuries. I think that Detroit will win this game outright. They can pull just one game behind the Packers if they get this win here. The home team has won five of seven in this series and the underdog has covered the spread in three of four. Detroit is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall and I think that they are going to pull the upset. The public is all over the Packers this week and I think that they are going to get buried by the home underdog.
$800.00 -110 Take #417 Tampa Bay (-1.5) over Carolina (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 18)
Tampa Bay already beat Carolina once this year. They are going to beat them again here. Tampa Bay is as hot as any team in the league right now and they just continue to improve under Greg Schiano. Carolina is a team that is fighting. They are not good in the locker room right now. They lost again last week and this team is ready to quit on this season because they are not going to the playoffs. Cam Newton has gone backwards in his second year. And the Tampa Bay offense is really taking off under Josh Freeman. The favorite is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings and the Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.
$2000.00 -105 Take #422 St. Louis (-3) over New York Jets (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 18)
This play is from my NFL 411 System and it is my Game of the Week.
I like the Rams in this one. They played great last week in their tie with San Francisco. I think that Jeff Fisher will get his team to build off that. This team is starting to come together in Fisher's first year. The Jets are starting to come apart. They were blown out again last week at Seattle and this team has lost three of four games on the road. The Rams beat Arizona, Seattle and Washington at home this year. I think that the Jets are in the same category with those teams. I give the Rams the edge with the quarterback and with the defense. And this team has the better running game behind Steven Jackson. The Rams are on a 7-3 ATS run and the Jets are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games. I will go with St. Louis in this one as they will pull away late in the second half for the cash.
$600 -110 Take #423 Indianapolis (+9.5) over New England (4:30 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 18)
This is too many points to give an Andrew Luck-led team. The Colts are 6-3 and they are playing with a lot of confidence. They got another road win last Thursday and have had extra time to prepare for this game. The Patriots only beat the Bills by six points last week and they have not been a good bet as a large favorite this year. They lost to Arizona and Seattle when laying big points and they needed overtime to beat the Jets as 11-point favorites. The Patriots are just 1-3 ATS in their last four and the Colts are 4-0 ATS during that time. I think the Patriots will score enough points to make this game competitive and this is too many points for the Patriots and Tom Brady to cover.
$400 -110 Take #431 San Diego (+7.5) over Denver (4:30 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 18)
The Chargers should get some revenge here in Denver. San Diego was up 24-0 over Denver when they met on Monday Night Football before they allowed the Broncos to score 34 unanswered points. These are the two best teams in this division and I think that this is too many points to give to the underdog. San Diego still has an explosive offense. And even if t Broncos get up big in the second half I can see Philip Rivers getting this team in the back door.
This is too many points to give an Andrew Luck-led team. The Colts are 6-3 and they are playing with a lot of confidence. They got another road win last Thursday and have had extra time to prepare for this game. The Patriots only beat the Bills by six points last week and they have not been a good bet as a large favorite this year. They lost to Arizona and Seattle when laying big points and they needed overtime to beat the Jets as 11-point favorites. The Patriots are just 1-3 ATS in their last four and the Colts are 4-0 ATS during that time. I think the Patriots will score enough points to make this game competitive and this is too many points for the Patriots and Tom Brady to cover.
$400 -110 Take #431 San Diego (+7.5) over Denver (4:30 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 18)
The Chargers should get some revenge here in Denver. San Diego was up 24-0 over Denver when they met on Monday Night Football before they allowed the Broncos to score 34 unanswered points. These are the two best teams in this division and I think that this is too many points to give to the underdog. San Diego still has an explosive offense. And even if t Broncos get up big in the second half I can see Philip Rivers getting this team in the back door.
