EXBOOKIE wants to help the players week 11

[ACE-ACE]

Bankroll $75k
INV 10-12 -$3774.00
ACTION 21-17 +$2543.00
TOTAL 31-29 -$1231.00

up CFB 40-32 +$2211.00

EVEN FOR THE YEAR...vs last year at this time -$23,360 in NFL

we are in the 2nd half of the season. 20 weeks season 10 more weeks to go
stats get better more games played

this week there is only one 411 system play....it will be a investment play..".stay tune "

The 1972 NFL season. Regarded by some as the best ever season in the NFL. Why? Because the Miami Dolphins went undefeated. They managed to win all of their 14 regular season games and all three of their post season games, winning the Superbowl and finishing 17-0.
No other team since the NFL-AFL merger had ever gone undefeated, and no team has done it since Miami. The New England Patriots came close to breaking this record in the 2007 season, but they couldn’t win in the Superbowl against the New York Giants, meaning they ended the season 18-1. Other than this occasion, no other team has come close to becoming undefeated and I don’t think no team ever will. Ever. Here’s why.
1. Perfect squad depth
If a team plans to go undefeated, they sure better have the talent to back it up. And I mean in every position, not just the ones that make the big plays. We’re talking having a starting QB and then another starting QB, but as your back up QB. When the Dolphins went undefeated, they won 11 games with back up Earl Morrall filling in for injured starter Bob Griese at QB. If you think Dominique Davis could ever do the same for the Atlanta Falcons if Matt Ryan ever got injured (touch wood) or Graham Harrell could do the same for the Green Bay Packers if Aaron Rodgers ever got injured (touch wood), I think you should book a doctor’s appointment for your head right away. It isn’t going to happen.
Not only a perfect squad depth on offense, but on defence too. Defences tend to unravel as the undefeated streak goes on till they eventually collapse and lose a game. The NFL has changed its rules so much in favour of offenses, that it has become extremely difficult to build a top-notch defence. Also the cost of trying to build a top-notch defence means teams have less money for the offense. Teams would then become one-dimensional, relying on either the offense or the defence to win their games. You can’t go undefeated being a one-dimensional team.
2. Salary Cap
The Dolphins had six ‘Hall Of Famers’ on that team in the 1972 season. Back then, the salary cap didn’t exist, meaning it was easy to pay the players to keep them at the team. Since the salary cap was introduced to the NFL in 1994, teams have found it hard to keep the same kind of talent that helped the Dolphins go undefeated. You look at this year’s free agency and see how many big names changed sides. Wes Welker, Greg Jennings, Jake Long, Ed Reed, Reggie Bush, Steven Jackson. Most of them have changed sides for more money and playing time. It’s hard to keep talent on your squad without paying them huge amounts.
3. The season is longer now that what it was back then
The season is longer now than what it was back when the Dolphins went undefeated. Instead of being 17-0, you have to go 19-0 to achieve an undefeated season. You’ve got to win more games than what the Dolphins did. You could even win more games in a single season than what the Dolphins did and still not go undefeated. The example of that happening is the 2007 New England Patriots as they won 18 games but still didn’t have an undefeated season.
4. Undefeated seasons create too much hype to handle
As soon as one team starts to string some wins together, the media starts to question whether or not the team could go all the way and stay undefeated. Chasing an undefeated season puts all your players under the spotlight, and not all of your players will be able to handle that kind of pressure. The veterans on your team can handle this kind of pressure, but it’s your rookie players you’ve got to worry about. They can start to believe that everything that is being said about them is true, and that’s when you have to start worrying. Big egos and other priorities could occur, which isn’t good on the team’s perspective at all.
5. No team is interested in going undefeated
Most teams just set out each year to win the Superbowl. So does any team start the season by saying: “We’re aiming to win the Superbowl, but we’re going to have an undefeated season too.” Surely being undefeated would be just a side bonus right? I’m sure the Miami Dolphins didn’t start the 1972 season saying their aim was to go undefeated. It just happened. Why would any team be interested? If they do it one year, they’ll have to do it the next year too otherwise that season would be classed as a failure when compared to the undefeated season. Teams shouldn’t be interested in going undefeated because winning the Superbowl should be the priority.
6. No incentive to play your best players
Let’s create a scenario. Your team’s record in the season is currently 13-0. You’ve qualified for the playoffs and you’ve won home-field advantage. Is there an incentive to play your best players for the remainder regular season games before the playoffs to stay undefeated? They could get injured and become unavailable for the entire playoffs meaning the chances of your team winning the Superbowl have significantly reduced. No team would risk having their best players injured and Superbowl hopes ruined over trying to achieve an undefeated season. It’s just common sense.

 

[ACE-ACE]

stats vs ATS

HOME 69
AWAY 77

DOG 66
FAV 77

UN 78
OV 79

points that matter...not one game last week. 24 out of 147 games 16% of the games

 

[ACE-ACE]

MYLINE
MIA -10.5
ATL -1
MIN -5
CLE -3
GB -11
KC -4
NO -7.5
SF -2
DEN -4.5
WAS -9
SD -15
AZ -3
IND -2
PIT -7

record for MYLINE with +6 value is. 7-8.......what I do with those 15 games after I do my home work. 5-3 record

this week value MIN AND GB

 

[JeffPerry]

Ace once again tout talk. This is about helping NFL players in week 11. Your CFB record shouldn't even be included but hey nice job in CFB.

 

[ACE-ACE]

[h=3]Top NFL Public Bets[/h]

#1 465 Denver Broncos 90%

#2 475 Pittsburgh Steelers 85%

#3 467 San Francisco 49ers 76%

#4 456 Green Bay Packers 75%

#5 462 New Orleans Saints 74%

#6 457 Seattle Seahawks 74%

#7 473 New England Patriots 74%

#8 310 Miami Dolphins 68%

#9 459 Atlanta Falcons 65%

#10 470 San Diego Chargers 64%

My 411 play is not in the top 10 this week.

 

[ACE-ACE]

GS
http://www.mediafire.com/download/9l...+Nov+11-17.pdf

GSX
http://www.mediafire.com/download/14...+Nov+11-17.pdf

CKO
http://www.mediafire.com/download/kt...+Nov+11-17.pdf

 

[ACE-ACE]

7 plays this week $8100.00 on the line. Only one 411 play this week

best to all
Ace

 

[abbythird]

Any play tonight?
?

 

[ACE-ACE]

Any play tonight?
?

Yes one

 

[ACE-ACE]

MIA -4.............................$2000.00 -107

Ace

 

[Beerman1600]

Ace- good start for the week- I know this week is going to be good!!!!

 

[ACE-ACE]

Ace- good start for the week- I know this week is going to be good!!!!

I love the smell of napalm in the morning! I feel it too!

 

[abbythird]

GREAT START! How many more investment plays do you have ace?

 

[ACE-ACE]

GREAT START! How many more investment plays do you have ace?

Just ts one more......won UCF LAST NIGHT....and I had a big play in CBB that won.....so I need that key play to win on Sunday

how you doing with your bets this year?

 

[slapshot]

Good Luck Ace

well hope you go 5-1 at least on Sunday you know the one

 

[abbythird]

Just ts one more......won UCF LAST NIGHT....and I had a big play in CBB that won.....so I need that key play to win on Sunday

how you doing with your bets this year?

I am up little this year

 

[jerrykroc]

Bankroll $75k
INV 10-12 -$3774.00
ACTION 21-17 +$2543.00
TOTAL 31-29 -$1231.00

up CFB 40-32 +$2211.00

EVEN FOR THE YEAR...vs last year at this time -$23,360 in NFL

we are in the 2nd half of the season. 20 weeks season 10 more weeks to go
stats get better more games played

this week there is only one 411 system play....it will be a investment play..".stay tune "

The 1972 NFL season. Regarded by some as the best ever season in the NFL. Why? Because the Miami Dolphins went undefeated. They managed to win all of their 14 regular season games and all three of their post season games, winning the Superbowl and finishing 17-0.
No other team since the NFL-AFL merger had ever gone undefeated, and no team has done it since Miami. The New England Patriots came close to breaking this record in the 2007 season, but they couldn’t win in the Superbowl against the New York Giants, meaning they ended the season 18-1. Other than this occasion, no other team has come close to becoming undefeated and I don’t think no team ever will. Ever. Here’s why.
1. Perfect squad depth
If a team plans to go undefeated, they sure better have the talent to back it up. And I mean in every position, not just the ones that make the big plays. We’re talking having a starting QB and then another starting QB, but as your back up QB. When the Dolphins went undefeated, they won 11 games with back up Earl Morrall filling in for injured starter Bob Griese at QB. If you think Dominique Davis could ever do the same for the Atlanta Falcons if Matt Ryan ever got injured (touch wood) or Graham Harrell could do the same for the Green Bay Packers if Aaron Rodgers ever got injured (touch wood), I think you should book a doctor’s appointment for your head right away. It isn’t going to happen.
Not only a perfect squad depth on offense, but on defence too. Defences tend to unravel as the undefeated streak goes on till they eventually collapse and lose a game. The NFL has changed its rules so much in favour of offenses, that it has become extremely difficult to build a top-notch defence. Also the cost of trying to build a top-notch defence means teams have less money for the offense. Teams would then become one-dimensional, relying on either the offense or the defence to win their games. You can’t go undefeated being a one-dimensional team.
2. Salary Cap
The Dolphins had six ‘Hall Of Famers’ on that team in the 1972 season. Back then, the salary cap didn’t exist, meaning it was easy to pay the players to keep them at the team. Since the salary cap was introduced to the NFL in 1994, teams have found it hard to keep the same kind of talent that helped the Dolphins go undefeated. You look at this year’s free agency and see how many big names changed sides. Wes Welker, Greg Jennings, Jake Long, Ed Reed, Reggie Bush, Steven Jackson. Most of them have changed sides for more money and playing time. It’s hard to keep talent on your squad without paying them huge amounts.
3. The season is longer now that what it was back then
The season is longer now than what it was back when the Dolphins went undefeated. Instead of being 17-0, you have to go 19-0 to achieve an undefeated season. You’ve got to win more games than what the Dolphins did. You could even win more games in a single season than what the Dolphins did and still not go undefeated. The example of that happening is the 2007 New England Patriots as they won 18 games but still didn’t have an undefeated season.
4. Undefeated seasons create too much hype to handle
As soon as one team starts to string some wins together, the media starts to question whether or not the team could go all the way and stay undefeated. Chasing an undefeated season puts all your players under the spotlight, and not all of your players will be able to handle that kind of pressure. The veterans on your team can handle this kind of pressure, but it’s your rookie players you’ve got to worry about. They can start to believe that everything that is being said about them is true, and that’s when you have to start worrying. Big egos and other priorities could occur, which isn’t good on the team’s perspective at all.
5. No team is interested in going undefeated
Most teams just set out each year to win the Superbowl. So does any team start the season by saying: “We’re aiming to win the Superbowl, but we’re going to have an undefeated season too.” Surely being undefeated would be just a side bonus right? I’m sure the Miami Dolphins didn’t start the 1972 season saying their aim was to go undefeated. It just happened. Why would any team be interested? If they do it one year, they’ll have to do it the next year too otherwise that season would be classed as a failure when compared to the undefeated season. Teams shouldn’t be interested in going undefeated because winning the Superbowl should be the priority.
6. No incentive to play your best players
Let’s create a scenario. Your team’s record in the season is currently 13-0. You’ve qualified for the playoffs and you’ve won home-field advantage. Is there an incentive to play your best players for the remainder regular season games before the playoffs to stay undefeated? They could get injured and become unavailable for the entire playoffs meaning the chances of your team winning the Superbowl have significantly reduced. No team would risk having their best players injured and Superbowl hopes ruined over trying to achieve an undefeated season. It’s just common sense.

Whatever deuce deuce

 

[ACE-ACE]

[h=1]HOW SHARPS ARE BETTING NFL WEEK 11[/h]

HOUSTON AT CLEVELAND: Cleveland has stayed solid on the key number of -3. It tells you a lot about the relative skepticism of the Browns as a playoff contender that they rate even with the Texans on a neutral field. Home field advantage is generally worth three points in the NFL. Sometimes more in situations like this were a team from the South is facing a team from the North in cold temperatures. Houston did have a bye last week though, which is probably getting some consideration in the number. Note that Ryan Mallet will be making his first career NFL start this week. A lot of sharps do respect his big arm. If the public drives the game off the three, I would expect sharps to bet the game back to the number. The opening total is down a half a point from the opener of 42. From this point forward, I’ll only mention totals that move at least a point.
MINNESOTA AT CHICAGO: Another game frozen on the key number of three. Chicago’s fallen far very quickly in Vegas ratings. They might have been -5 or -6 if this game had been played a month ago. But, very poor showings in recent weeks have made it clear that Chicago doesn’t have a playoff caliber team. Worse, the bulk of the roster may have given up on the head coach and/or the starting quarterback. Given that this game has stayed on the three so long, you can assume here as well that sharps would fade any public move off -3.
PHILADELPHIA AT GREEN BAY: Looks like a tug-of-war developing between Green Bay -5.5 and Philadelphia +6. Both teams are getting respect from sharps in recent weeks. And, Mark Sanchez showed enough this past Monday Night to keep him from being an auto-fade in a big game like this. Smart money preferring the Packers is in at the opener. More might come in on the six if it looks like the public is going to pound the Packers. Sharps will take a position on six then come back on the Eagles at +7 to maximize their profit options. If the public doesn’t flood Green Bay, the tug-of-war that’s already in play would likely continue. The opening total of 56.5 has been bet down to 54.5, possibly because game-time temperatures will be in the 20’s. Note that this is a time change to a later after noon start for a better TV window.
SEATTLE AT KANSAS CITY: We have a flipped favorite here. Seattle opened at -1. Kansas City, who’s been getting respect from sharps for several weeks now (along with Miami), is now the home favorite at -2. The Wise Guys are in on the Chiefs…but they will certainly be looking at Seattle +8 in two-team teasers if the line doesn’t move any more. That’s quite a middle! It will be interesting to see how the public bets this game. Seattle hasn’t been profitable for them. But defending Super Bowl champions aren’t often underdogs so soon after the big win.
ATLANTA AT CAROLINA: Another flipped favorite, but in a relatively unimportant game instead of a battle of playoff teams. Carolina opened at -1.5. Most stores are now showing Atlanta -1. Carolina looked awful this past Monday Night vs. Philadelphia, and has been in a tailspin for several weeks. If Atlanta rises into the teaser window, Carolina at +7.5 or +8 in two-teamers may not get much serious consideration because so many of their losses have been by big margins.
CINCINNATI AT NEW ORLEANS: The Saints often get action from both sharps and squares as home favorites. Sharps jump in early knowing they can buy back later on the dog for value. Squares just like betting an explosive offense indoors on a fast track. The opener of New Orleans -5.5 is up to -7…and some sites are testing -7.5 to see if that encourages Cincinnati money. The public will very likely be on New Orleans at -7 or better. Awkward spot for sportsbooks because a widely available -7.5 would open the doors for New Orleans at -1.5 in teasers. Even more money would flood in on the Saints. Very likely that sportsbooks will be rooting hard for the Bengals.
TAMPA BAY AT WASHINGTON: Not much interest in such a low profile game. But, the money that has presented itself so far has been on Washington -7. We’re starting to see some 7.5’s out there. I would expect the Wise Guys to take that hook if it’s available at higher limits. Washington hasn’t established that they should be big favorites over anyone. The total has dropped from 46 to 45 in many locales. This is not likely to be a heavily bet game this weekend.
DENVER AT ST. LOUIS: Denver opened at -8, and has risen all the way to -9.5. Denver and New Orleans are similar in terms of how sharps bet them on the openers. Though New Orleans gets the brunt of that at home, while Denver is now seen as a blowout team everywhere against non-contenders. Sharps are in at -8, -8.5 and -9. Underdog money might come in on St. Louis +10…though it’s possible dog players will wait to see if the public lifts the number even higher before kickoff. A key number like 10 is much better in a “middle” than as the border of a shot at a middle. Denver is still being priced like the next Super Bowl champions…well clear of the field.
SAN FRANCISCO AT NY GIANTS: Strong move on the Niners off the opener of -3. It takes a lot of money to move a game off the three and stay there. Most stores are showing the Niners at -3.5 or -4. We may have a tug-of-war developing because home dog money does come in on the four. If the public plays the Niners on Sunday, it looks like the Wise Guys will take the Giants at +4 or better. Note that this is a second-straight road game for SF after an overtime win…and also a bad body clock game that starts at 1 p.m. ET, 10 a.m for a West Coast team.
OAKLAND AT SAN DIEGO: San Diego hasn’t been in the best of form lately. But, they did enjoy a bye last week that may have recharged their batteries. An opener of -9 has been bet up to -10. Some stores are testing -10.5 because Oakland money isn’t showing up yet. The Wise Guys are in strong at -9 and -9.5. It might take +11 to bring in some Oakland feelers. The old school guys who take every double digit dog on principal will have some choices to make with the Rams and Raiders.
DETROIT AT ARIZONA: Not much interest here. Arizona opened at -1, and is now -1.5 at most places. This one could dance around the teaser window. Sharps would definitely like Detroit at +7.5 or +8 against Arizona’s backup quarterback. The light late afternoon slate could bring in some public money searching for action. Squares tend to bet favorites. We might have a spot where the public is in at Arizona -1.5, while the Wise Guys have Detroit +7.5. Sportsbooks will be rooting for anything outside that range.
NEW ENGLAND AT INDIANAPOLIS (Sunday Night): This is going to be a heavily bet game. Squares have all day to get their money in on what might be the most entertaining Sunday Night game of the season. We’ve already seen a move from Indianapolis -2 to -3. It’s been solid on the three ever since. Will the public bet Brady as a dog (squares love betting Brady)? Or, will the public bet Indy as a cheap favorite (squares love betting those in TV games!). I can tell you this, the Wise Guys have been very forceful in their support of the Colts this season. You could see that in the recent road prices at Pittsburgh and the NY Giants. Money may split so evenly on the key number of three that sportsbooks will be positioned to collect a large vigorish. Big move to the Over here, from the already high opening total of 56 up to 58. Not a surprise. Great quarterbacks, good scoring conditions, and the chance that it turns into a back-and-forth shootout. I wouldn’t be shocked if public money drives this to as high as 60 before kickoff.
PITTSBURGH AT TENNESSEE (Monday Night): Only a small early move in what is shaping up as a dead spot on the Monday Night schedule. Pittsburgh’s been on TV a lot already recently. Tennessee is playing so poorly that they represent no kind of attraction at all. This could be the lightest bet Monday Nighter of the season, or of the past few seasons. Pittsburgh -5.5 was bet up to -6 by sharps. I would expect at least +7 to show up before any dog money hit the board.

 

[ACE-ACE]

1-0 for the week so far +$2000.00
today I have 6 plays. 6 action, one investment ,one 411 this week

wish all the best to your capping this week.

ACE

 

[slapshot]

HOW SHARPS ARE BETTING NFL WEEK 11

CINCINNATI AT NEW ORLEANS: The Saints often get action from both sharps and squares as home favorites. Sharps jump in early knowing they can buy back later on the dog for value. Squares just like betting an explosive offense indoors on a fast track. The opener of New Orleans -5.5 is up to -7…and some sites are testing -7.5 to see if that encourages Cincinnati money. The public will very likely be on New Orleans at -7 or better. Awkward spot for sportsbooks because a widely available -7.5 would open the doors for New Orleans at -1.5 in teasers. Even more money would flood in on the Saints. Very likely that sportsbooks will be rooting hard for the Bengals.

hopefully this helps and they win outright WHO DEY