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I have 6 plays today....4 will be in the early games...one will be a 411 play...on a record run of 13-1-1 in NFL...another run has started in CBB 4-0 the last 2 days with twogames today....going to Talk with therx to see if they want to do a Promo on my CBB picks....STAY TUNE.
best to all
Ace
best to all
Ace
Sports handicappers and sports bettors know that the 2012 NFL season has mostly been “The Year of the Underdog.” That slowed down last weekend and this past Thursday Night when favorites started cashing tickets. Are you aware which TEAMS have been doing the best and the worst against Las Vegas pointspreads? Here’s an update heading into the 10[SUP]th[/SUP] Sunday of the pro football season.
MOST UNDERRATED (Best ATS Records)
Houston 6-2
Atlanta 6-2
Tampa Bay 6-2
Seattle 6-3
Indianapolis 6-3
Chicago 5-3
Denver 5-3
New England 5-3
San Francisco 5-3
NY Jets 5-3
Nobody’s run the table this year against the Vegas numbers, or even managed a 7-1 ATS mark. Three teams are right at 75% though, with Super Bowl contenders Houston and Atlanta on that short list, along with the very surprising Tampa Bay Bucs. New head coach Greg Schiano has the team playing with intensity and confidence in his first year at the helm.
A pair of rookie quarterbacks clock in at 67% success. Russell Wilson and Andrew Luck both earned market respect with good Preseasons. Yet, the lines have STILL been too low in their games two-thirds of the time.
Note the list of Super Bowl contenders at 5-3 ATS. Even though this has been the year of the dog, you can see that the best teams are still doing well against expectations. That’s an underreported phenomenon in the NFL…you CAN make money betting on the best teams as long as your smart about situations and pricing. The NY Jets are the only surprise in this group at 5-3. Most teams would put them on the “overrated” list off the top of their heads. And, Rex Ryan was just voted as the most overrated coach in a poll of players. Yet, there are the Jets two games over .500 entering Sunday’s game in Seattle.
MOST OVERRATED (Worst ATS Records)
Philadelphia 1-6-1
Kansas City 2-6
Cincinnati 2-5-1
Tennessee 3-6
Baltimore 3-5
Dallas 3-5
Minnesota 3-5-1
Arizona 3-5-1
Buffalo 3-5
Oakland 3-5
Philadelphia has been the disaster of the year. They were supposed to be the best team in the NFC according to many Preseason pundits on TV and in Las Vegas. That’s kept their prices way too high all season long (including last Monday Night’s game in New Orleans). Kansas City is right behind them at 2-6 ATS. Some are wondering if the Chiefs are losing on purpose to try and lock in the #1 spot in the draft. Oddsmakers have been slow to react to the demise of BOTH of those teams, regardless of what’s causing the destruction.
Cincinnati has been one of the quieter disappointments. Quarterback Andy Dalton is suffering some growing pains as he tries to play more aggressively. Too many mistakes from the Red Rifle, and the team as a whole, particularly in crunch time.
Baltimore and Dallas are the other contenders on this list. Baltimore was supposedly going to set the league on fire with a new up-tempo offense. They’re certainly on the short list of potential Super Bowl teams. But, they’re not playing up to expectations on a consistent basis. And, much of that is because quarterback Joe Flacco has been so inconsistent. The mainstream media has been all over the Cowboys problems. Fitting that they play Philadelphia in a big TV game Sunday. Somebody’s going to have even more bad news!
It’s telling though that so few teams are having truly bad seasons against the number…and Kansas City is the only projected non-contender (by most anyway) that’s been really awful against the spread. The true story of “The Year of the Underdog” is that many bad teams are doing enough to cover about half the time. Bad teams aren’t making a fortune. Bad teams are close to break even or a little worse against the number, while GOOD teams are doing very well as underdogs.
Lesson #1: Don’t bet underdogs blindly…bet quality dogs in good situations!
Lesson #2: It’s okay to bet contending favorites at reasonable prices. They’ve been covering!
MOST UNDERRATED (Best ATS Records)
Houston 6-2
Atlanta 6-2
Tampa Bay 6-2
Seattle 6-3
Indianapolis 6-3
Chicago 5-3
Denver 5-3
New England 5-3
San Francisco 5-3
NY Jets 5-3
Nobody’s run the table this year against the Vegas numbers, or even managed a 7-1 ATS mark. Three teams are right at 75% though, with Super Bowl contenders Houston and Atlanta on that short list, along with the very surprising Tampa Bay Bucs. New head coach Greg Schiano has the team playing with intensity and confidence in his first year at the helm.
A pair of rookie quarterbacks clock in at 67% success. Russell Wilson and Andrew Luck both earned market respect with good Preseasons. Yet, the lines have STILL been too low in their games two-thirds of the time.
Note the list of Super Bowl contenders at 5-3 ATS. Even though this has been the year of the dog, you can see that the best teams are still doing well against expectations. That’s an underreported phenomenon in the NFL…you CAN make money betting on the best teams as long as your smart about situations and pricing. The NY Jets are the only surprise in this group at 5-3. Most teams would put them on the “overrated” list off the top of their heads. And, Rex Ryan was just voted as the most overrated coach in a poll of players. Yet, there are the Jets two games over .500 entering Sunday’s game in Seattle.
MOST OVERRATED (Worst ATS Records)
Philadelphia 1-6-1
Kansas City 2-6
Cincinnati 2-5-1
Tennessee 3-6
Baltimore 3-5
Dallas 3-5
Minnesota 3-5-1
Arizona 3-5-1
Buffalo 3-5
Oakland 3-5
Philadelphia has been the disaster of the year. They were supposed to be the best team in the NFC according to many Preseason pundits on TV and in Las Vegas. That’s kept their prices way too high all season long (including last Monday Night’s game in New Orleans). Kansas City is right behind them at 2-6 ATS. Some are wondering if the Chiefs are losing on purpose to try and lock in the #1 spot in the draft. Oddsmakers have been slow to react to the demise of BOTH of those teams, regardless of what’s causing the destruction.
Cincinnati has been one of the quieter disappointments. Quarterback Andy Dalton is suffering some growing pains as he tries to play more aggressively. Too many mistakes from the Red Rifle, and the team as a whole, particularly in crunch time.
Baltimore and Dallas are the other contenders on this list. Baltimore was supposedly going to set the league on fire with a new up-tempo offense. They’re certainly on the short list of potential Super Bowl teams. But, they’re not playing up to expectations on a consistent basis. And, much of that is because quarterback Joe Flacco has been so inconsistent. The mainstream media has been all over the Cowboys problems. Fitting that they play Philadelphia in a big TV game Sunday. Somebody’s going to have even more bad news!
It’s telling though that so few teams are having truly bad seasons against the number…and Kansas City is the only projected non-contender (by most anyway) that’s been really awful against the spread. The true story of “The Year of the Underdog” is that many bad teams are doing enough to cover about half the time. Bad teams aren’t making a fortune. Bad teams are close to break even or a little worse against the number, while GOOD teams are doing very well as underdogs.
Lesson #1: Don’t bet underdogs blindly…bet quality dogs in good situations!
Lesson #2: It’s okay to bet contending favorites at reasonable prices. They’ve been covering!
$2000.00-104 Take #221 Denver (-3.5)over Carolina (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 11)
This play is my NFL 411 System.
I will keep betting on Peyton Manning. This is a small number when we have a big advantage at quarterback and on defense. The Broncos are streaking under Manning and have won and covered three straight games. The Panthers are coming off an emotional game over the Redskins last week. They are not as strong of a team overall and there is a lot of grumbling in the Carolina locker room. Cam Newton is not getting along with his coach and this team is struggling to score points on offense. I do not think that the Panthers are going to be able to keep up with this efficient Broncos attack if this game becomes a shootout.
$400.00 -110Take #220 Tampa Bay (-3) over San Diego (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 11)
This is tough for San Diego. They have to make a long flight across the country to play a tough Tampa team. This is just San Diego's third game in Tampa since 1988. And this game is a 1 p.m. EST start and that is always tough for the West Coast teams to take care of. The Bucs just came off a convincing win at Oakland last week. They are running the ball San Diego won big over Kansas City on Thursday night. But that game was given to the Chargers thanks to Kansas City turnovers. Tampa Bay has scored over 35 points in three of four games and they have a very hot offense. Bucs wide receiver was let go by San Diego prior to this season. I think that he is very motivated to have a big week and I think he will hurt his former team.
$600.00 -105 Take #224 Miami (-6) over Tennessee (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 11)
Miami will bounce back at home this week. They lost to Andrew Luck on the road last week. But now they are facing a Titans team that has looked terrible lately. The Titans were embarrassed by the Bears last week. Tennessee was down 28-2 in that game in the first quarter and gave up over 50 points. Miami is 8-1 ATS in their last nine games after a loss and they are on a nice run of 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games overall. Tennessee is just 3-9-1 ATS in its last 13 games overall and the Titans are 2-6-1 ATS against the AFC. Tennessee is not sure who will start at quarterback. Neither option is a good option. Miami is making good strides in Joe Philbin's first year. I think that they will have another strong showing and will get the home win here.
$400.00-110 Take #227 Atlanta (-1.5) over New Orleans (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 11)
The Falcons are a great value here! They are the last unbeaten team in the league. But they are still not getting respect from the oddsmakers. The Falcons are 6-2 ATS this year and they have lost three straight to the Saints. That means that they will be looking for revenge against their hated rivals. The road team has won four of the last five meetings and home field advantage does not mean as much in this series. New Orleans has won three of four games. They are trying to get back in the NFC South race. But they have some bad signs. They have been outgained in four straight games and five of six. I do not think that this team is strong enough to take down Atlanta. I will lay the small number here and this game could come down to a field goal for the road team to et a win.
This play is my NFL 411 System.
I will keep betting on Peyton Manning. This is a small number when we have a big advantage at quarterback and on defense. The Broncos are streaking under Manning and have won and covered three straight games. The Panthers are coming off an emotional game over the Redskins last week. They are not as strong of a team overall and there is a lot of grumbling in the Carolina locker room. Cam Newton is not getting along with his coach and this team is struggling to score points on offense. I do not think that the Panthers are going to be able to keep up with this efficient Broncos attack if this game becomes a shootout.
$400.00 -110Take #220 Tampa Bay (-3) over San Diego (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 11)
This is tough for San Diego. They have to make a long flight across the country to play a tough Tampa team. This is just San Diego's third game in Tampa since 1988. And this game is a 1 p.m. EST start and that is always tough for the West Coast teams to take care of. The Bucs just came off a convincing win at Oakland last week. They are running the ball San Diego won big over Kansas City on Thursday night. But that game was given to the Chargers thanks to Kansas City turnovers. Tampa Bay has scored over 35 points in three of four games and they have a very hot offense. Bucs wide receiver was let go by San Diego prior to this season. I think that he is very motivated to have a big week and I think he will hurt his former team.
$600.00 -105 Take #224 Miami (-6) over Tennessee (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 11)
Miami will bounce back at home this week. They lost to Andrew Luck on the road last week. But now they are facing a Titans team that has looked terrible lately. The Titans were embarrassed by the Bears last week. Tennessee was down 28-2 in that game in the first quarter and gave up over 50 points. Miami is 8-1 ATS in their last nine games after a loss and they are on a nice run of 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games overall. Tennessee is just 3-9-1 ATS in its last 13 games overall and the Titans are 2-6-1 ATS against the AFC. Tennessee is not sure who will start at quarterback. Neither option is a good option. Miami is making good strides in Joe Philbin's first year. I think that they will have another strong showing and will get the home win here.
$400.00-110 Take #227 Atlanta (-1.5) over New Orleans (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 11)
The Falcons are a great value here! They are the last unbeaten team in the league. But they are still not getting respect from the oddsmakers. The Falcons are 6-2 ATS this year and they have lost three straight to the Saints. That means that they will be looking for revenge against their hated rivals. The road team has won four of the last five meetings and home field advantage does not mean as much in this series. New Orleans has won three of four games. They are trying to get back in the NFC South race. But they have some bad signs. They have been outgained in four straight games and five of six. I do not think that this team is strong enough to take down Atlanta. I will lay the small number here and this game could come down to a field goal for the road team to et a win.
$300.00 -110Take #233 Dallas (-1) over Philadelphia (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 11)
I like Dallas to get the job done here. Philadelphia is a team that has completely imploded. No one on this team looks like they want to save this season and this looks like it will be Andy Reid's last season and Mike Vick's last year with the team. Dallas is playing its fourth road game in five weeks. They had close, late losses at Atlanta and Baltimore. And they beat Carolina. This team also won at New York against the Giants. They are more proven on the road. The Eagles have lost four straight games and they are just 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games. Dallas is the much better team here and that is why they are favored. They get the job done.
I like Dallas to get the job done here. Philadelphia is a team that has completely imploded. No one on this team looks like they want to save this season and this looks like it will be Andy Reid's last season and Mike Vick's last year with the team. Dallas is playing its fourth road game in five weeks. They had close, late losses at Atlanta and Baltimore. And they beat Carolina. This team also won at New York against the Giants. They are more proven on the road. The Eagles have lost four straight games and they are just 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games. Dallas is the much better team here and that is why they are favored. They get the job done.
$2100.00 -110 Take #237 Houston (+1) over Chicago (8 p.m., Sunday, Nov 11)
This is my NFL Game of the Week and from my NFL 411 System.
I really like this Houston team. They are 6-2 ATS on the season and they are one of the AFC favorites. I think that they are going to go to Chicago and get this victory. The Bears are home after a big blowout win over Tennessee. That has got a lot of people on their bandwagon this week. But the Texans have been a powerhouse team for the entire season. This team already has a win over Denver on the road, over the Jets on the road, and by 30 points over a good Baltimore team. I think that the Texans are going to focus hard on not turning the ball over and on minimizing mistakes against the Bears defense. And if Chicago isn't getting touchdowns on defense and special teams they have a hard time scoring. Houston is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games and they are 19-7-2 ATS in their last 28 games overall. I think that Houston is a much more complete football team. And I think that they have played better this year from start to finish. I know that my system is flying in the face of the public here. But I trust my 411 System to deliver the goods again.
This is my NFL Game of the Week and from my NFL 411 System.
I really like this Houston team. They are 6-2 ATS on the season and they are one of the AFC favorites. I think that they are going to go to Chicago and get this victory. The Bears are home after a big blowout win over Tennessee. That has got a lot of people on their bandwagon this week. But the Texans have been a powerhouse team for the entire season. This team already has a win over Denver on the road, over the Jets on the road, and by 30 points over a good Baltimore team. I think that the Texans are going to focus hard on not turning the ball over and on minimizing mistakes against the Bears defense. And if Chicago isn't getting touchdowns on defense and special teams they have a hard time scoring. Houston is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games and they are 19-7-2 ATS in their last 28 games overall. I think that Houston is a much more complete football team. And I think that they have played better this year from start to finish. I know that my system is flying in the face of the public here. But I trust my 411 System to deliver the goods again.
