A FEW OPTIONS THIS WEEKEND
FOR 'BASIC STRATEGY' TEASERS
As we've discussed at great length here in the web articles and in my weekly articles that run in College and Pro Football Weekly the past couple of years, sharps have made a KILLING playing teasers in the NFL.
Oddsmakers in Nevada and offshore have taken to playing defense, particularly deeper into the season once teams are more locked into form, with line adjustments that take numbers out of the strike zone.
With the regular season starting this week, I thought this was the perfect time to review the sharp strategy...and to point out a few games that quality this Sunday and Monday. For those of you looking for my 'What the Sharps Think about the NFL' piece for the week, that will be available Saturday morning here at the website, and will stay up for you all weekend.
First, here's what's been termed 'basic strategy' for betting NFL six-point, two-team teasers:
*Use any favorite in the range of 7.5 to 8.5 points, and move them DOWN six points to the range of minus 1.5 to 2.5 points.
*Use any underdog in the range of 2.5 to 2.5 points, and move them UP six points to the range of plus 1.5 to 2.5 points.
*Take all the nominees each week, and round robin them in all the possible two-team teasers. Sharps squeeze as much out of their edge as they can!
Why are those numbers so important? They cross the key numbers of 3 and 7 in one fell swoop. You're really getting bang for your buck because so many NFL games land on those numbers. Studies have shown that this is really the only way to consistently beat pro teasers (and, it won't even work in the colleges because scoring is so volatile with less experienced athletes on the field).
Now, you may have some outside handicapping edges that will get you winners at other numbers. Say you've got a 10-point favorite that makes SO MUCH sense for a blowout, that teasing them down to -4 would work. Fine, but...you'd better be right. In general, moving -10 down to -4 doesn't get you over the hump by itself.
Sharps have generally taken the handicapping out of the picture, and just play the numerical edges being offered.
Games this weekend that would quality at the current numbers (as of press time):
Pittsburgh +2 vs. Atlanta (move to +8)
Houston +2 vs. Indianapolis (move to +8)
Baltimore +2.5 at NY Jets (move to +8.5)
Now, I'm not recommending that YOU bet these. I'm just telling you what sharps are doing. I don't release teasers as part of my service as a general rule, and I won't be posting 'free teaser picks' here in my articles. I'm just outlining the strategy for you to make sure you're aware of it. It will influence discussions we have later in the season when you're wondering why so many teams are favored by 9 points rather than 8 or 8.5. Sportsbooks don't want to move down off a 9 because it invites in basic strategy teasers from sharps.
Note that Cleveland +2.5 as available earlier in the week at Tampa Bay. That line is currently +3. Sharps with access to teasers whenever they can bet them included the Browns in the mix at +8.5 in their round robins.
Also, you should be aware that sharps are more cautious than usual early in the season, and oddsmakers are more willing to take teasers from sharps early in the season because opening week lines have proven to be soft in past years. Maybe Dennis Dixon isn't ready to keep the Steelers within reach of Atlanta. Maybe Baltimore won't be able to score a TD at the Jets the way they couldn't score a TD in two tries against Indianapolis last year. Sportsbooks are more willing to gamble a bit when variance is in their favor.
If it was up to oddsmakers, only squares would be allowed to bet teasers! That's how they got their name. They teased the public into losing more money. I have known people using the basic strategy approach for many years though, dating back to the 1980's. A book was written about a decade ago discussing the strategy as well. The only antidote later in the season from the sportsbook perspective is to keep the game spreads out of the strike zone. This week, you've got some options if you want to play around with them.
Again, this isn't an approach to use in the colleges even if it makes sense to you. Fewer games land close to the spread in the colleges. And, underdogs in the 7-10 range pull upsets all the time. It's just a wilder sport in terms of victory margins. Sharps don't bet college teasers. I wouldn't recommend them for you either.
Back over the weekend with a look at what the sharps think about the first week of NFL action. In terms of the Thursday Night game, early sharp money was on New Orleans -4.5 (because it's assumed Brett Favre won't be in top form), and Under 51.5 (for the same reasons. The current numbers are 5.5 and 48.5...so we've seen quite a move on the total.
I'll have a selection for my clients Thursday afternoon right here at the website. There's a college game on the card as well (Auburn at Mississippi State). We have two college games on TV Friday Night that will also help us build our bankrolls for a big weekend.
