After the fact I know, but why a big play on Cinnci? Balt is 13-4 ats last 17 at home vs cinnci & cinnci internal problems are well known. Also Det 3-7 ats last 10 with Atl. In both these games you were bucking big ats trends in the 1st game of the year, why? You mentioned in 1 of your threads that your system kicked in in week 5, why a big 1st 1/2 play in a game in week one? Many unknowns league wide, I respect & apprecaite your threads as do most, I just did not understand basis for the investment plays at all. GL on all your future sports investments. 
After the fact I know, but why a big play on Cinnci? Balt is 13-4 ats last 17 at home vs cinnci & cinnci internal problems are well known. Also Det 7-3 ats last 10 with Atl. In both these games you were bucking big ats trends in the 1st game of the year, why? You mentioned in 1 of your threads that your system kicked in in week 5, why a big 1st 1/2 play in a game in week one? Many unknowns league wide, I respect & apprecaite your threads as do most, I just did not understand basis for the investment plays at all. GL on all your future sports investments.
system kicks in week 4....I show trends as candy ...but I feel that when you say Balt is 13-4 ats last 17 at home vs Atl....do you know what that means...most they play them two time a year so you are going to base your play on 8 years trends!!! lots of people come and go every year. what does last years team have to do with this years games??
yes they are fun to see...but dont base my picks on them....Detroit had the best d-line in "pre"....did not base it on them being 4-0...they had it going and could stop anyone.....but....thats not what happen so I lost.
Any one that caps know its about what you think that will happen vs what happens in the game...great when they match.
Trends can be a huge help at times. If you got a rational view on a pick but are hesitating, ive found a trend or system play, can push up my chances of a winner. Trends have been big help for me over the last few years.
Keep on posting those 'candy' plays ace. There's a few system plays from this week i didn't know about and they helped me big. Useful additional factor them.
Thanks for contributing your work dude.
DENVER (7 - 9) at OAKLAND (4 - 12) - 9/8/2008, 10:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 66-91 ATS (-34.1 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
OAKLAND is 16-30 ATS (-17.0 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 4-0 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 3-1 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Broncos @ Raiders-- Denver won eight of last ten series games, four of five at Coliseum, with wins here by 14-28-14-4 points; the last 18 times Oakland scored less than 23 points in series, they've lost to Broncos. Denver lost three of last four road openers, with only win 15-14 at Buffalo (-3)- they scored 10.3 ppg in those four games. Raiders started last five seasons 0-1, failing to cover last five home openers. Under is 5-1 in last six Denver road openers, 4-1 in Oakland's last five home openers.
10:15 PM DENVER vs. OAKLAND
Denver is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Denver is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Oakland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Denver
Oakland is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Denver
Balt being being 13-4 last 17 at home vs Cinnci imo means alot regardless of the player changes, it shows a pettern of one team feeling they own the other in this certain situation & as I mentioned Cinnci internal problems are well documented.
Detroit has been awful on both sides of the ball for years, why not wait to get them in a better spot? 1st game of the year on the road vs a team that Detroit basically has no film on & a team that they have a history of struggling with in this situation.
1st 1/2 plays in week 1 for big $$ were imo out of character for someone like you Ace. If the info you use kicks in in week #4 How can you have faith in any 1st 1/2 play?
Detroit has been awful on both sides of the ball for years, why not wait to get them in a better spot? 1st game of the year on the road vs a team that Detroit basically has no film on & a team that they have a history of struggling with in this situation.
1st 1/2 plays in week 1 for big $$ were imo out of character for someone like you Ace. If the info you use kicks in in week #4 How can you have faith in any 1st 1/2 play?
Because he's working for the books now. Fade his plays if you want to win.After the fact I know, but why a big play on Cinnci? Balt is 13-4 ats last 17 at home vs cinnci & cinnci internal problems are well known. Also Det 3-7 ats last 10 with Atl. In both these games you were bucking big ats trends in the 1st game of the year, why? You mentioned in 1 of your threads that your system kicked in in week 5, why a big 1st 1/2 play in a game in week one? Many unknowns league wide, I respect & apprecaite your threads as do most, I just did not understand basis for the investment plays at all. GL on all your future sports investments.
Do you think its a coinceadence? Ever since he drew a huge following of posters, all he does is give out losers.
SD game I like the whole game...but I did not want to lay that much wood. so I took a short cut....no matter which way I would of when on that game it would have been a lost. 1st week I puch myself a little...in my mind to pick 3 games and if I win one and lost two of the game I would only be down 2 units....we all know it did not work out that way...you make good points on the games....but I never 2nd guess myself...I see a edge and go with it and make my stand. there are 240 more games and this will be a lesson.
3 I mark for this week coming up...if it was you which one would be your Investment play?
N.O.
Ari
Hou
sea
thinking a bet against SF is gold...you know Iam big on turn overs....SF in preseason did 11 and got 5 more in week1.
:think2: Why make any investment plays until after week 4??? Not sure why you thought had any edge in any game in opening week, that completely confuses me. Preseason, starters in most cases play no more than 1.5 quarters, what info do you get from that? Many players from preseason are home betting on the games. I have followed your threads for over 3 yrs now & your NFL plays would be only be only ones I would even consider. You obviously put great effort into the NFL, but for the life of me I will not understand big bets in week 1, unless you have some kind of inside info, which can be assumed you do not.
show you this last year....maybe you can answer this time!
Investment plays only
2004 25-16 +$28,400 we I working for the books that year?
2005 36-18 +$44181...here?
2006 19-22 -$11390...o-yes they play me that year:missingte
2007 26-26 +$3468....did I win that year and you lost with those fades?
so in your world making over $60,000 is to little ?
answer...you did not last year...
if you go back over the years I have alway bet 1-3 plays a week (investment)
last year I when 6-1 +$6000 + WEEK 1
from that thread http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?t=506398&highlight=exbookie&page=10
my Plays For Week 1
Hou -3 -110...............$500.00 Winner
Den-3 -109................$800.00 Lost
Det+2 +100...............$2000.00 winner
Sea-6 +102................$2100.00
wash Un 34 1/2-108....$2200.00 Winner
3 Team Teaser 10 Point Move
wash Under 44 1/2 Win
det +12
sea+4............................$200.00
Dont know...I just copy and paste over here...you want to see wher I get them http://www.bettorschat.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=18
