How Sharps Are Betting This Weekend's NFL
The final weekend of an NFL season is always tricky for sharp bettors. You have mismatched motivation in many games (one team cares and the other doesn’t). You have NO motivation in some games (the result doesn’t matter to either team). And, you have situations where some coaches and quarterbacks are playing for jobs next year…while others are just finishing out their schedules.
Early betting has been fairly tentative this week…exacerbated by a Wednesday Christmas that kept all but NBA lovers away from sportsbooks. Let’s see what sharps have been doing so far. Games are presented in rotation order…
CAROLINA AT ATLANTA: Carolina opened at -7 as a road favorite needing a win to lock in the #2 seed in the NFC. Sharps bet home underdog Atlanta off their impressive showing this past Monday Night in San Francisco. We’re now seeing Atlanta +6 or +6.5 as we go to press. In fact, there’s a bit of a tug-of-war between Carolina -6 and Atlanta +6.5. Nothing happening yet on the Over/Under. We usually provide a disclaimer that we’ll only mention totals in the games where sharp action has become apparent. This week, we’ll hardly mention them at all! Many sharps are waiting for weekend weather updates or confirmation about projected lineups before investing in Over/Unders. Sharps have learned over the years that discretion is usually the bettor part of valor on Week 17 totals unless you have confirmed word that particular offenses will be trying to put up big numbers for one reason or another.
GREEN BAY AT CHICAGO: Note that this game has been time-changed to 4:25 p.m. ET for the late afternoon TV window. Green Bay went up at -3 when it was clear Aaron Rodgers would be playing at quarterback after missing half the season with a broken collarbone. Sharps preferring the dog acted at the key number, concerned that there would be market skepticism about Rodgers’ ability to play at 100% effectiveness. Not clear yet whether we’ll have a tug-of war through the weekend between the 2.5 and the 3 or not. The total has been bet up from 51 to 52.5. That would suggest weather won’t be much of an issue, and is a reflection of shootout potential in a big game, plus the poor Chicago defense.
HOUSTON AT TENNESSEE: Tennessee opened at -6, and has been bet up to -7 in a meaningless game. Well, it’s meaningless in the playoff race. Houston needs to lose to lock in the worst NFL record and next summer’s #1 draft pick! If Houston wins and Washington loses, both teams will be 3-13, and strength of schedule will be the tiebreaker. Sharps have bet the total down a point from 45.5 to 44.5.
CLEVELAND AT PITTSBURGH: Pittsburgh has been bet up from -5.5 to -7 in a game that isn’t quite meaningless because Pittsburgh still has an outside shot to steal a playoff spot if they get a lot of help elsewhere. Reports suggest Pittsburgh is going to play in hopes of that miracle, while fading Cleveland barely has reason to show up at all beyond rivalry pride.
WASHINGTON AT NY GIANTS: The Giants opened on the key number of -3, and have been bet up to -3.5. We’re hearing that’s because Washington has motivation to lose for the draft. Does Kirk Cousins know about that? There hasn’t been a buyback on Washington with the hook. But, the number hasn’t gone to four yet. Sources tell us the game will stay settled at NYG -3.5 barring additional weekend information
BALTIMORE AT CINCINNATI: The Bengals opened at -4, and have been bet up to -6. Both teams have reasons to show up…as the Bengals are trying to get the #2 spot in the AFC brackets (they would need to win here and have New England lose to Buffalo). Baltimore is currently in a three-way tie for the final AFC spot. Interestingly, they own individual tie-breakers over both Miami and San Diego…but would lose in a three-way dance because the Dolphins have the better conference record. Given what’s at stake…that sharp move is rather emphatic. Sources tell us the support is related to Joe Flacco’s knee injury…and the impact that limited mobility will have on the road against this solid Cincinnati defense.
JACKSONVILLE AT INDIANAPOLIS: Not much betting interest at the high opening price of Indianapolis -11.5. The Colts could conceivably improve their playoff lot if they get help in other places. They would need underdogs to beat New England and Cincinnati for that to happen. Most likely scenario is a home game against Kansas City, a team they just beat on the road last week.
PHILADELPHIA AT DALLAS: Note that this game has been time-changed to prime time for NBC. Philadelphia is currently favored by -6.5 on the assumption that Kyle Orton will be playing quarterback for Dallas. Tony Romo was so immobile late last week vs. Washington because of a back injury…and is not responding dramatically to an epidural…that an announcement that Romo will be able to start probably won’t influence the line much. Philadelphia opened at -2.5 when the extent of Romo’s injury wasn’t fully known. The adjusted line topped a touchdown for a while, before getting bet back to the current 6.5. The total dropped from 55.5 to 52.5 once it was clear Romo would be out of severely limited.
NY JETS AT MIAMI: The Dolphins opened at -6.5. Sharps bet the Jets down to +5.5. Sources tell us that’s a combination of skepticism about the Dolphins ability to dominate with their one-dimensional offense…and an assessment that Jets players are trying to save Rex Ryan’s job. Ryan played that card last week vs. Cleveland and it got him a win and a cover.
DETROIT AT MINNESOTA: The Vikings opened at -2, and were bet up to -3 in a lame duck game that has no meaning for either team. Sharps preferred the home team in a rivalry game, particularly with the visitor being eliminated in an upset loss at home last week. We have a possibility here that both coaches will be fired in the next few days.
BUFFALO AT NEW ENGLAND: Note that this game has been time-changed to 4:25 p.m. ET. New England has jumped from -7.5 to -9 or -9.5 in many locales. Part of that is some stores wanting to keep the game out of the teaser window. But, sharps who liked Cincinnati played the natural follow-through that New England would have to win if the Bengals beat Baltimore.
TAMPA BAY AT NEW ORLEANS: Note that this game has also been time-changed to 4:25 p.m. ET. No betting interest yet with an opener of New Orleans -12.5. The Saints are currently tied with Arizona for the sixth and final NFC playoff spot. A win here would seal the deal. Additional motivation would be added if Carolina was upset by Atlanta in an earlier kickoff.
DENVER AT OAKLAND: Denver hasn’t yet wrapped up the #1 spot in the AFC because a loss coupled with a New England victory would give that honor to the Patriots. The teams will be on the field simultaneously. Denver opened as a favorite of -10.5…and has been bet up to -12 because they need to win…and because the Oakland defense has been very suspect in recent weeks against motivated opposition.
SAN FRANCISCO AT ARIZONA: San Francisco is locked into a playoff spot, and could steal the NFC West if Seattle gets stunned at home by St. Louis. Arizona must beat SF and hope Tampa Bay shocks New Orleans…which is a longshot. So…the game has meaning to both teams at kickoff…but might be meaningless by the third quarter if the Saints and Seahawks jump out to big leads. An opening line of San Francisco -1 has been bet down to pick-em.
KANSAS CITY AT SAN DIEGO: The Chargers will either know their fate by kickoff or soon after. They need both Miami and Baltimore to lose in early games for this matchup to be meaningful. Should that happen, then San Diego is playing for the final AFC playoff spot against a team with nothing at stake. The Chargers opened at -10. Some old school sharps played the dog on the assumption that +10 would be too high in a game that was likely to end up not mattering either way.
ST. LOUIS AT SEATTLE: Seattle opened at -10.5 in a game they need to win to wrap up the #1 seed and home field throughout the NFC brackets. Sharps bet that to -11 or -11.5 but not any higher. It’s expected that the public will take the game higher through the weekend.