week 16 newsletters
GS
http://www.mediafire.com/download/cp0v9gb0dphbhux/Gold+Sheet+Week+17.pdf
NC Bowl info
http://www.mediafire.com/download/429y78ujyqv3te8/BOWL+GAME+info.pdf
PS bowl
http://www.mediafire.com/download/sbaf14t9w3887h6/powersweepbowls.pdf
PPBowls
http://www.mediafire.com/download/c611ozblnfc8fle/powerplaysbowls.pdf
pointwise
http://www.mediafire.com/download/98lk3ni3ya48961/Pointwise+Wk#17.pdf
gaming today
http://www.mediafire.com/download/2hfqadaobk6d5xy/GamingToday.12.17.pdf
VK's totals tipsheet
http://www.mediafire.com/download/y6baasobed0nysc/totals+tipsheetpdf
Week 17 lines from PLAYER
http://www.mediafire.com/download/ik4louhmd9bi936/WEEK+17.pdf
sportsreporter
http://www.mediafire.com/download/t0htn5yhm11k92v/Sports+Reporter.pdf
winning points
http://www.mediafire.com/download/n4atvmlrk853smg/Winning+Points(6).pdf
CKO
http://www.mediafire.com/download/yfnbmxtro9ls4kt/CKO.pdf
KS
http://www.mediafire.com/download/7rpvgccxndn7btr/ks_report_2013_16.pdf
playbook bowls
http://www.mediafire.com/download/3w8zltpvq1swc27/PLAYBOOK+BOWL+GAMES.pdf
playbook
http://www.mediafire.com/download/71iabwj8rc9ovi1/playbook(3).pdf
nellys
http://www.mediafire.com/download/pbfpsm4zhxozgiu/NELLY+GREENSHEET+Wk+17+&+BOWL+GAMES.pdf
wiseguy
http://www.mediafire.com/download/fims8bnk88sj0zz/wg04.pdf
GS
http://www.mediafire.com/download/cp0v9gb0dphbhux/Gold+Sheet+Week+17.pdf
NC Bowl info
http://www.mediafire.com/download/429y78ujyqv3te8/BOWL+GAME+info.pdf
PS bowl
http://www.mediafire.com/download/sbaf14t9w3887h6/powersweepbowls.pdf
PPBowls
http://www.mediafire.com/download/c611ozblnfc8fle/powerplaysbowls.pdf
pointwise
http://www.mediafire.com/download/98lk3ni3ya48961/Pointwise+Wk#17.pdf
gaming today
http://www.mediafire.com/download/2hfqadaobk6d5xy/GamingToday.12.17.pdf
VK's totals tipsheet
http://www.mediafire.com/download/y6baasobed0nysc/totals+tipsheetpdf
Week 17 lines from PLAYER
http://www.mediafire.com/download/ik4louhmd9bi936/WEEK+17.pdf
sportsreporter
http://www.mediafire.com/download/t0htn5yhm11k92v/Sports+Reporter.pdf
winning points
http://www.mediafire.com/download/n4atvmlrk853smg/Winning+Points(6).pdf
CKO
http://www.mediafire.com/download/yfnbmxtro9ls4kt/CKO.pdf
KS
http://www.mediafire.com/download/7rpvgccxndn7btr/ks_report_2013_16.pdf
playbook bowls
http://www.mediafire.com/download/3w8zltpvq1swc27/PLAYBOOK+BOWL+GAMES.pdf
playbook
http://www.mediafire.com/download/71iabwj8rc9ovi1/playbook(3).pdf
nellys
http://www.mediafire.com/download/pbfpsm4zhxozgiu/NELLY+GREENSHEET+Wk+17+&+BOWL+GAMES.pdf
wiseguy
http://www.mediafire.com/download/fims8bnk88sj0zz/wg04.pdf
Are trends useless ? Do they contradict one another ? Which one is more relevant to the situation ? Or is it just a bunch of bull to get you confused?
Which one would you follow ? Or would you just throw them out and analyze the game with current information ?
The Eagles are 0-11 ATS (-9.91 ppg) since Jan 09, 2011 at home after a loss.
The Bears are 0-17 ATS (-11.24 ppg) since Nov 27, 1994 on the road the week after a game in which they had at least 150+ yards rushing.
Which one would you follow ? Or would you just throw them out and analyze the game with current information ?
The Eagles are 0-11 ATS (-9.91 ppg) since Jan 09, 2011 at home after a loss.
The Bears are 0-17 ATS (-11.24 ppg) since Nov 27, 1994 on the road the week after a game in which they had at least 150+ yards rushing.
[h=1]How Sharps Are Betting This Weekend's NFL[/h]
There are only two weeks left in the NFL season, and fully 13 of 16 games this weekend could have playoff implications. That should create a very active week of sports betting in Las Vegas. Let’s see how professional wagerers have already been attacking the games the general public will be playing through the weekend.
Games are presented in rotation order…
MIAMI AT BUFFALO: Early action from sharps has generally been a tug-of-war. Miami -2.5 gets support below the key numbers, but sharps prefer home underdog Buffalo at +3. The percentage of games that land exactly on three could make both of those slightly +EV. No action yet from Wise Guys on the total. We’ll only mention Over/Unders in games where early sentiment has been expressed. Sharps generally wait for confirmation of game day weather influences at this time of year in the cold weather cities.
NEW ORLEANS AT CAROLINA: We’re looking at a tug-of-war on the other side of three in this one. Carolina -3 has received some interest from the Wise Guys. But, New Orleans money comes in hard whenever +3.5 shows up for the underdog. It’s expected that the public will bet Carolina on Sunday given the poor road play of the Saints in recent weeks. Sharps will fade any public moves. The Over/Under has been bet up from 45.5 to 46.5 from the numbers guys. That suggests weather isn’t likely to be an issue in Charlotte.
DALLAS AT WASHINGTON: It won’t be all tugs-of-war at the three this Sunday…but the first three games on the schedule are showing that tendency. Sharps have been taking Dallas at -2.5 but Washington at +3. Let’s emphasize, as we have in the past, that we’re talking about separate syndicates doing that. Those preferring Dallas are happy to get -2.5. Those preferring Washington take the three. This game is very similar to Miami/Buffalo in that you have the road team in a divisional game needing the win as they try to chase down a playoff spot, while the host is a non-contender. Big move here on the total, as an opener of 51 has been bet up to 53.5 or 54. That’s an indictment of both defenses, and another indicator that weather should be okay along the mid-coast. To this point in the process, the most passionate Wise Guy play has been the Over in Cowboys/Redskins.
TAMPA BAY AT ST. LOUIS: Sharps had a very nice run with Tampa Bay…but the team has cooled off lately. That didn’t stop the Wise Guys from backing the Bucks at the opener of +5.5, as well as +5. We’re seeing +4.5 and +4 on the board now. Sharps generally fade non-contending favorites late in the season if they believe the dog hasn’t thrown in the towel yet.
CHICAGO AT PHILADELPHIA: Note that this game has been time-changed to prime time for NBC. Ironically, it could turn out to be a relatively meaningless game for the Eagles. If Dallas wins at Washington, then the NFC East will come down to Cowboys/Eagles next week regardless of what happens here. With that in mind, an opener of Philadelphia -4 has been bet down to -3. The total is up from 54.5 to 56 because Chicago tends to play shootouts with a strong offense but a very poor defense.
CLEVELAND AT NY JETS: Some support for the Jets at an opener of -1. We’re now seeing -1.5 or -2 in most stores. This is one of the three meaningless games. And, it’s hard to truly love either side given their recent form. Sharps would certainly come in on Cleveland +3 if the public drives the number that high before kickoff. Normally this would be an invisible game on the card…but New York money often finds its way to Las Vegas.
INDIANAPOLIS AT KANSAS CITY: Huge move on the total, as an Over of 41.5 was bet all the way up to 45. Did oddsmakers not notice that Kansas City’s defense has turned mortal because of injuries? What an inexplicable opening total. Sportsbooks have gotten better at avoiding mistakes like this. But, they still make them occasionally. The team side is fairly locked in at Kansas City -6.5. Any stores testing the seven see Colts money immediately. We probably won’t have a tug-of-war because few stores are going to test the seven. If sharps liked the Chiefs, a flood of money would have come in right below the key number.
MINNESOTA AT CINCINNATI: Cincinnati opened at -7, and got so much support that the number moved up to -7.5 without a tug back. We’re now seeing -7.5 or -8 in most stores, suggesting that the Bengals will be a very popular teaser pick in two-teamers because you can move the line down below the 7 and the 3.
DENVER AT HOUSTON: Denver opened at -9.5…which is usually a dare for the market to take the favorite because oddsmakers are expecting underdog support. Instead, sharps pounded Denver! The line moved through the key number of 10 all the way to -11. We’re now seeing a bit of a tug of war between Houston +11 and Denver -10.5. Oddsmakers expected that to happen a point lower. The total has been bet up from 51.5 to 53.5. A lot of Over sentiment this week…as a season of Overs continues to produce more high scoring games than oddsmakers have expected.
TENNESSEE AT JACKSONVILLE: No interest here, with a dead game on the schedule sitting in a dead spot between critical numbers with the Titans at -5.
ARIZONA AT SEATTLE: Arizona has been impressing sharps this season. They’re now almost a unanimous top 10 team in Power Ratings systems. But, Seattle is a unanimous #1! And, that number one team gets a ton of respect at home. Seattle opened at -9.5. Like Denver, they’ve blown through the key number of 10. We’re now seeing a tug of war between Arizona +10.5 and Seattle -10. Note that Seattle clinches the #1 seed with a victory. Arizona must win to stay alive in their Wildcard chase. Our first Under of the day shows up here, as an opener of 45 was bet down to 43. Two good defenses on the field.
NY GIANTS AT DETROIT: Awkward spot here, because sharps don’t trust Detroit as a favorite but can’t support the Giants given how poorly they’ve been playing. We’re seeing Detroit -9 and NY Giants +9.5 getting tentative interest…but not in a way that represents a true tug-of-war. The total is up from 48.5 to 49.5 because the quants were getting 50 as the best number. Sharps would be more interested in the Giants at +10 if the public drives the line that high Sunday. This is a later start, so there’s an outside chance of that happening.
OAKLAND AT SAN DIEGO: Big moves in this game on both the side and the total. The apparent disinterest from Oakland for playing defense led an opener of San Diego -7.5 to be bet up to -10, and an opening total of 48 to be bet up to 50.5. Sources tell us that’s a mix of pro-San Diego and anti-Oakland sentiment. The Chargers have impressed sharps in recent games, and they have extra rest time leading up to this one after their Thursday Night upset of Denver.
PITTSBURGH AT GREEN BAY: No line yet pending the status of Aaron Rodgers. It’s growing likelier that he’ll be on the field because the Packers are now a legitimate threat to win the NFC North.
NEW ENGLAND AT BALTIMORE: This has been time changed to later afternoon because NBC flexed to Bears/Eagles. The line has mostly hopped between Baltimore -2 and Baltimore -2.5. Not enough Ravens support to get to the key number. And, we’re hearing sharps would pound New England +3 if they saw it. Look for New England to be a popular teaser choice if the line doesn’t move out of this range. Sharps will likely move all underdogs of +2 or +2.5 up to +8 or +8.5, while finding ways to involve Cincinnati -1.5 in teasers as well.
ATLANTA AT SAN FRANCISCO (Monday Night): Sharps have been hitting San Francisco surprisingly hard in the final game ever to be played at Candlestick Park. The Niners opened at 10.5, but are now up to -13! There hasn’t been buy back yet on the Falcons. Are the old school guys waiting to see +14? Or, is there a general assessment that Atlanta is going to no-show the game? Sources tell us it will now take at least +14 to bring in any serious underdog money.
There are only two weeks left in the NFL season, and fully 13 of 16 games this weekend could have playoff implications. That should create a very active week of sports betting in Las Vegas. Let’s see how professional wagerers have already been attacking the games the general public will be playing through the weekend.
Games are presented in rotation order…
MIAMI AT BUFFALO: Early action from sharps has generally been a tug-of-war. Miami -2.5 gets support below the key numbers, but sharps prefer home underdog Buffalo at +3. The percentage of games that land exactly on three could make both of those slightly +EV. No action yet from Wise Guys on the total. We’ll only mention Over/Unders in games where early sentiment has been expressed. Sharps generally wait for confirmation of game day weather influences at this time of year in the cold weather cities.
NEW ORLEANS AT CAROLINA: We’re looking at a tug-of-war on the other side of three in this one. Carolina -3 has received some interest from the Wise Guys. But, New Orleans money comes in hard whenever +3.5 shows up for the underdog. It’s expected that the public will bet Carolina on Sunday given the poor road play of the Saints in recent weeks. Sharps will fade any public moves. The Over/Under has been bet up from 45.5 to 46.5 from the numbers guys. That suggests weather isn’t likely to be an issue in Charlotte.
DALLAS AT WASHINGTON: It won’t be all tugs-of-war at the three this Sunday…but the first three games on the schedule are showing that tendency. Sharps have been taking Dallas at -2.5 but Washington at +3. Let’s emphasize, as we have in the past, that we’re talking about separate syndicates doing that. Those preferring Dallas are happy to get -2.5. Those preferring Washington take the three. This game is very similar to Miami/Buffalo in that you have the road team in a divisional game needing the win as they try to chase down a playoff spot, while the host is a non-contender. Big move here on the total, as an opener of 51 has been bet up to 53.5 or 54. That’s an indictment of both defenses, and another indicator that weather should be okay along the mid-coast. To this point in the process, the most passionate Wise Guy play has been the Over in Cowboys/Redskins.
TAMPA BAY AT ST. LOUIS: Sharps had a very nice run with Tampa Bay…but the team has cooled off lately. That didn’t stop the Wise Guys from backing the Bucks at the opener of +5.5, as well as +5. We’re seeing +4.5 and +4 on the board now. Sharps generally fade non-contending favorites late in the season if they believe the dog hasn’t thrown in the towel yet.
CHICAGO AT PHILADELPHIA: Note that this game has been time-changed to prime time for NBC. Ironically, it could turn out to be a relatively meaningless game for the Eagles. If Dallas wins at Washington, then the NFC East will come down to Cowboys/Eagles next week regardless of what happens here. With that in mind, an opener of Philadelphia -4 has been bet down to -3. The total is up from 54.5 to 56 because Chicago tends to play shootouts with a strong offense but a very poor defense.
CLEVELAND AT NY JETS: Some support for the Jets at an opener of -1. We’re now seeing -1.5 or -2 in most stores. This is one of the three meaningless games. And, it’s hard to truly love either side given their recent form. Sharps would certainly come in on Cleveland +3 if the public drives the number that high before kickoff. Normally this would be an invisible game on the card…but New York money often finds its way to Las Vegas.
INDIANAPOLIS AT KANSAS CITY: Huge move on the total, as an Over of 41.5 was bet all the way up to 45. Did oddsmakers not notice that Kansas City’s defense has turned mortal because of injuries? What an inexplicable opening total. Sportsbooks have gotten better at avoiding mistakes like this. But, they still make them occasionally. The team side is fairly locked in at Kansas City -6.5. Any stores testing the seven see Colts money immediately. We probably won’t have a tug-of-war because few stores are going to test the seven. If sharps liked the Chiefs, a flood of money would have come in right below the key number.
MINNESOTA AT CINCINNATI: Cincinnati opened at -7, and got so much support that the number moved up to -7.5 without a tug back. We’re now seeing -7.5 or -8 in most stores, suggesting that the Bengals will be a very popular teaser pick in two-teamers because you can move the line down below the 7 and the 3.
DENVER AT HOUSTON: Denver opened at -9.5…which is usually a dare for the market to take the favorite because oddsmakers are expecting underdog support. Instead, sharps pounded Denver! The line moved through the key number of 10 all the way to -11. We’re now seeing a bit of a tug of war between Houston +11 and Denver -10.5. Oddsmakers expected that to happen a point lower. The total has been bet up from 51.5 to 53.5. A lot of Over sentiment this week…as a season of Overs continues to produce more high scoring games than oddsmakers have expected.
TENNESSEE AT JACKSONVILLE: No interest here, with a dead game on the schedule sitting in a dead spot between critical numbers with the Titans at -5.
ARIZONA AT SEATTLE: Arizona has been impressing sharps this season. They’re now almost a unanimous top 10 team in Power Ratings systems. But, Seattle is a unanimous #1! And, that number one team gets a ton of respect at home. Seattle opened at -9.5. Like Denver, they’ve blown through the key number of 10. We’re now seeing a tug of war between Arizona +10.5 and Seattle -10. Note that Seattle clinches the #1 seed with a victory. Arizona must win to stay alive in their Wildcard chase. Our first Under of the day shows up here, as an opener of 45 was bet down to 43. Two good defenses on the field.
NY GIANTS AT DETROIT: Awkward spot here, because sharps don’t trust Detroit as a favorite but can’t support the Giants given how poorly they’ve been playing. We’re seeing Detroit -9 and NY Giants +9.5 getting tentative interest…but not in a way that represents a true tug-of-war. The total is up from 48.5 to 49.5 because the quants were getting 50 as the best number. Sharps would be more interested in the Giants at +10 if the public drives the line that high Sunday. This is a later start, so there’s an outside chance of that happening.
OAKLAND AT SAN DIEGO: Big moves in this game on both the side and the total. The apparent disinterest from Oakland for playing defense led an opener of San Diego -7.5 to be bet up to -10, and an opening total of 48 to be bet up to 50.5. Sources tell us that’s a mix of pro-San Diego and anti-Oakland sentiment. The Chargers have impressed sharps in recent games, and they have extra rest time leading up to this one after their Thursday Night upset of Denver.
PITTSBURGH AT GREEN BAY: No line yet pending the status of Aaron Rodgers. It’s growing likelier that he’ll be on the field because the Packers are now a legitimate threat to win the NFC North.
NEW ENGLAND AT BALTIMORE: This has been time changed to later afternoon because NBC flexed to Bears/Eagles. The line has mostly hopped between Baltimore -2 and Baltimore -2.5. Not enough Ravens support to get to the key number. And, we’re hearing sharps would pound New England +3 if they saw it. Look for New England to be a popular teaser choice if the line doesn’t move out of this range. Sharps will likely move all underdogs of +2 or +2.5 up to +8 or +8.5, while finding ways to involve Cincinnati -1.5 in teasers as well.
ATLANTA AT SAN FRANCISCO (Monday Night): Sharps have been hitting San Francisco surprisingly hard in the final game ever to be played at Candlestick Park. The Niners opened at 10.5, but are now up to -13! There hasn’t been buy back yet on the Falcons. Are the old school guys waiting to see +14? Or, is there a general assessment that Atlanta is going to no-show the game? Sources tell us it will now take at least +14 to bring in any serious underdog money.
Just did a two mile run and getting ready for today football games and note taking. If you don't have red zone get it....one TV set on red zone..the other two set on the game I want to see.
today. I have 5 plays....4 are early games. All I've ever wanted was an honest weeks pay for an honest day work......best to all. Ace
today. I have 5 plays....4 are early games. All I've ever wanted was an honest weeks pay for an honest day work......best to all. Ace
$800.00 -105 Take #101 Miami (-2.5) over Buffalo (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 22)
Miami is a hot team right now. I do not think that they will have trouble going to Buffalo and getting a win this Sunday. The Dolphins have revenge for losing to the Bills once already this year. But Miami is playing much better now. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and is 6-3 ATS in the last nine meetings. The road team has won four of the last seven meetings so home field advantage doesn't mean much to these division rivals. The Bills are going to be without their starting quarterback and without their best receiver. Miami has won three straight and are on a 5-0 ATS run. They will keep it going against a Buffalo team that is just waiting for the season to end.
$2000.00 -112 Take #116 Cincinnati (-7) D Juice down to -7 over Minnesota (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 22) (note I bet this game early at -7)
I like the Bengals to bounce back in this game. They were beaten badly by the Steelers last Sunday night. But the Bengals have been very good at home. They have blown out the last three teams they played in Cincinnati. They won by 14 points, 21 points and 40 points. The Bengals are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six home games. And the key to this game is that the books have moved the spread all the way up to 8.0. They moved off the 7.0 and that is important to note.
$3000.00 -105 Take #114 First Half Kansas City (-3.5) over Indianapolis (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 22)
AND
$2000.00 -105 Take #114 Kansas City (-6.5) over Indianapolis (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 22)
I think that the Chiefs are going to win this one in a blowout! It should be a blowout from start to finish and I think that the Chiefs will be up by double-digits in the first half. I played the first half line bigger than the full game line because the Colts have been much better in the second half of games. And I don't want to take a chance of a back door cover from Andrew Luck. The Colts have been terrible in the first half of games. Before last week they had gone 37 straight possessions in the first half without a TD. They had been outscored 114-24 in the first half of their previous six games and had trailed at the half in five of them. They are slow starters and I think that they will have another slow start here. This is one of the worst first half teams in the NFL and they are facing a very good Chiefs team. Kansas City is tied with Denver for the AFC West lead. They still have a chance to win the division. But they need to win and get help. Kansas City jumped out to a 35-10 lead in the first half last week against Oakland and they jumped out to a 38-7 halftime lead against Washington the week before. I think that both of these teams keep playing like they have. The Chiefs will get off to a fast start and the Colts will struggle in the first half. Lay the points in both bets and I want a sweep!
Miami is a hot team right now. I do not think that they will have trouble going to Buffalo and getting a win this Sunday. The Dolphins have revenge for losing to the Bills once already this year. But Miami is playing much better now. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and is 6-3 ATS in the last nine meetings. The road team has won four of the last seven meetings so home field advantage doesn't mean much to these division rivals. The Bills are going to be without their starting quarterback and without their best receiver. Miami has won three straight and are on a 5-0 ATS run. They will keep it going against a Buffalo team that is just waiting for the season to end.
$2000.00 -112 Take #116 Cincinnati (-7) D Juice down to -7 over Minnesota (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 22) (note I bet this game early at -7)
I like the Bengals to bounce back in this game. They were beaten badly by the Steelers last Sunday night. But the Bengals have been very good at home. They have blown out the last three teams they played in Cincinnati. They won by 14 points, 21 points and 40 points. The Bengals are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six home games. And the key to this game is that the books have moved the spread all the way up to 8.0. They moved off the 7.0 and that is important to note.
$3000.00 -105 Take #114 First Half Kansas City (-3.5) over Indianapolis (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 22)
AND
$2000.00 -105 Take #114 Kansas City (-6.5) over Indianapolis (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 22)
I think that the Chiefs are going to win this one in a blowout! It should be a blowout from start to finish and I think that the Chiefs will be up by double-digits in the first half. I played the first half line bigger than the full game line because the Colts have been much better in the second half of games. And I don't want to take a chance of a back door cover from Andrew Luck. The Colts have been terrible in the first half of games. Before last week they had gone 37 straight possessions in the first half without a TD. They had been outscored 114-24 in the first half of their previous six games and had trailed at the half in five of them. They are slow starters and I think that they will have another slow start here. This is one of the worst first half teams in the NFL and they are facing a very good Chiefs team. Kansas City is tied with Denver for the AFC West lead. They still have a chance to win the division. But they need to win and get help. Kansas City jumped out to a 35-10 lead in the first half last week against Oakland and they jumped out to a 38-7 halftime lead against Washington the week before. I think that both of these teams keep playing like they have. The Chiefs will get off to a fast start and the Colts will struggle in the first half. Lay the points in both bets and I want a sweep!
