I was drag race on north line rd by the airport...you got me beat..... So you are on a set income?...only betting small amounts?
me.....once you have money you don't need it any more....don't get me wrong ....I like to built the walet...but now in my life it's a game that I don't like to lose....if I lose $40k or lose $100...... It's all the same....a lost season is a lost season...you know that....my way has work for over 20 years....this week may be the last week to win some....so I'm betting 1.9 units more than most weeks .there rarely a fast track to success,but achieving any goal starts with a willingness to step off the sideline and step on the gas.
Now a days it's mostly for fun. It's takes to much time and effort. I probably watched every game on TV that was on from 1970 to 1992. Plus a radio to my ear that's the way it was. I just got tired of it. Sitting around waiting for people in bars and a whole lot more. Done a lot of biz in dearborn back then. Places like Big Moes, Pine Tree Bowling Alley, Pal O Mar, Copper Mug. Now a days I enjoy going more to the casino. I only play BJ and am a top notch card counter. It's easier and faster. Since the casino's have been in Detroit I have only had 1 losing and that was for $35,000, as for money if I am playing at a $50 dollar min what do you think ?
Countcard myself....track at $65 a hand.....in Las Vegas that is over $10k of action in 4 hours...I get my room and a food and maybe a show. Alway play on 1st base....sometimes you don't know if you won that hand because you are setting up for the next hand...alway find a place that put the red card in at 52 card not 104 or more.....count get better at that point....it's a great game that can be won. Betting between $25-$150. No more no less
What do you mean by track at $65 a hand ? Average bet ? What count do you use balanced or unbalanced ? Level 1 or 2 count ? That spread of 1 to 6 is to small. You need to spread to 1 to 10 to make it more profitable. At 1 to 6 your win rate is about $17.50 per hour. At 1 to 10 your win rate is $30 per hour. See the difference. Best cut at the Detroit casino are usually 1 1/4 cut. Sometimes you will maybe get a one deck. Dealer dependent. I am talking a 6 deck shoe with DA2 DAS S17 rules.
If you ask the pit boss he can tell you what your avg play is...last time I ask $65 a hand is avg. like the mechanics of the game...use to read all the book like BLACKJACK FORUM the best by Arnold Snyder... I know what you mean by 1-10 is better...but...I set my limits on this game.....my count is simple. 2-3-4-5-6. =+1. 7-8-9. Don't count. 10-J-Q-K-ace = -1..... I count ACE"s on the side. I take only $2000 with me...and look for the table with no talking . 50% of the time after 4 hours I'm even...that get me free room and food....32% I win $1000 or more 18% I lose the $2000.00... I track this over 5 years. 2005-2010. Not sure what you mean by balanced or unbalanced?
so
if the count is -18. You have 14 and the dealer has a 5 showing...do you take the card if you have 5 other players on the table. Lots of looks at me after I do it....lol
So you are just using a running count ? Sounds like Hi Lo.
Balanced and Unbalanced counts have a very fundamental difference: Hi-Lo is a balanced counting system (the number of "low" cards equals the number of "high" cards) and KISS is an unbalanced counting system (there are more "low" cards than "high" cards).
The big advantage of an unbalanced counting system is that you don't need to convert from the running count (RC) to the true count (TC). Because of the imbalance, at a certain count (known as the pivot), the RC equals the TC. As the RC moves away from the pivot, it becomes less accurate (which is the big drawback of an unbalanced count) but if you choose your pivot wisely, the unbalanced count will be as accurate as a balanced count in all the right spots (generally between a TC of +1 and +5). Balanced running counts start at 0. I use a unbalanced count (KISS) starts at +9. The count is adjusted so you don't have to deal with negative numbers.
Count is Black 2 +1
.3.4.5.6.7. +1 10,J,Q.K.A -1
Your pivot (when you start raising your bet) is +21 which you be a +2.
Something to read for your pleasure gentlemen.
[h=1]Degenerate, Inc.: The Paranoid and Obsessive Life of a Mid-Level Bookie[/h]
http://www.clevescene.com/cleveland...ife-of-a-mid-level-bookie/Content?oid=3731305
[h=1]Degenerate, Inc.: The Paranoid and Obsessive Life of a Mid-Level Bookie[/h]
http://www.clevescene.com/cleveland...ife-of-a-mid-level-bookie/Content?oid=3731305
As a bookie...this happens all the time......hit the link.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-O-Aq...e_gdata_player
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-O-Aq...e_gdata_player
[h=1]How Sharps Are Betting This Weekend[/h]We’re down to the last three weeks of NFL action. We already have a shocker in the books as San Diego stunned Denver Thursday Night 27-20. Are more surprises in store this Sunday and Monday? Let’s see how sharps have been answering that question with MONEY since the opening lines went on the board.
Games are presented in rotation order so you can makes notes in your schedules…
WASHINGTON AT ATLANTA: The Falcons opened at -3.5 before it was announced that RGIII was being shut down for the season for the Redskins. The line has ballooned up to Atlanta -7 from sharp and public betting. Sources tell us it’s not that sharps believe Cousins is that much worse than RGIII. In fact, many had them close to even in Griffin’s somewhat hobbled state. Wise Guy money was more based on the general collapse of the team, the soap opera between the head coach and the owner, and what is a tough matchup situation with a bad defense playing indoors on a fast track against a veteran quarterback. We’re hearing that some underdog money is out there waiting to hit the board…waiting to see if +7.5 or +8 becomes available. Nothing yet on the Over/Under. We’ll only mention totals in games where sharp preferences have been made apparent.
SAN FRANCISCO AT TAMPA BAY: Not much betting interest yet in this one. San Francisco opened at -5. Some stores have tested -5.5 just to see if that would encourage anyone to bet. The total has dropped from 42 to 41 based on quant projections that had the game in the high 30’s.
ARIZONA AT TENNESSEE: Looks like we have a tug-of-war shaping up here, with Arizona -2.5 as the road favorite and Tennessee +3 as the home underdog. Sharps with preferences are taking the best line for their side where it’s available. Amazing how far Arizona has come this season that they would be a road favorite this late in the season.
NEW ORLEANS AT ST. LOUIS: New Orleans opened at -4.5 but was bet up to -6 before coming to a stop. That may surprise some of you because the Saints have been money burners on the road this season. This isn’t a dramatic road environment for them though since they play their home games in a dome. Also, the Saints are fighting for the #2 seed and can’t afford an off-week. Sharps liked Drew Brees and company at anything below -6. Sources tell us underdog money would come in at +7 if the public drives the number that high before kickoff. The Over/Under has been bet up from 46.5 to 48 because strong Saints performances tend to feature a lot of points.
SEATTLE AT THE NY GIANTS: Possibly a tug-of-war here with Seattle -6.5 and the Giants +7. This may be a game where the public bets the favorite to such a degree on game day that the line just sits on the key number of seven. Wise Guys preferring the favorite are happy to get less than the touchdown. Seattle hopes to be playing again on this field in about six weeks. Nothing has happened yet on the total, but it will come down if there’s a forecast for windy conditions on game day.
CHICAGO AT CLEVELAND: We’ve had a flipped favorite, as a line of Cleveland -1 turned into Chicago -1 when it was announced that Jay Cutler would be coming back for the Bears. Many sharps had Cutler and Josh McCown rated evenly. We’re hearing this move was more about position taking on the assumption that squares (the public) would back Cutler through the week and on game day. The public likes betting “must win” teams at cheap prices when facing non-contenders.
HOUSTON AT INDIANAPOLIS: The Colts have lost so much respect in the market that they’re now laying only -5.5 points against the team positioned to get the #1 draft pick. Actually, the game opened at Houston +6.5 but was bet down because of poor recent play for Indianapolis. Sharps soured on the Colts a few weeks ago, and have largely been rewarded for that read.
BUFFALO AT JACKSONVILLE: The only betting interest far has been on the Over/Under…where a total of 44 has been bet down to 43. Sources tell us that’s because of the poor offensive play we’ve seen recently from the Bills. Nothing’s happened on the team side line of Buffalo -2. Had sharps liked the Bills, they would have hit that right away. Sharps preferring Jacksonville are just going to wait to see if they get a better price.
NEW ENGLAND AT MIAMI: We’ve had a big move here, as an opener of New England -3 has been bet down to Patriots -1 or pick-em. Sharps know how big Rob Gronkowski is to this team. Those using simulation software couldn’t believe they could get Miami at home in a must-win situation at +3. And, it’s telling that money kept coming in on the Dolphins at +2.5, +2, and +1.5. There’s that much skepticism about New England’s offense when they have to play shorthanded.
PHILADELPHIA AT MINNESOTA: Big jump here as Philadelphia opened at -3.5 and has been bet up to -5.5 or -6. Oddsmakers expected affection for the Eagles, which is why the game opened on their side of the key number. But, they underestimated Wise Guy support. We’re hearing this game may scoot past the six because sharps really like what they’re seeing recently from Philly’s offense (even in a blizzard!), and because Minnesota’s already bad defense should be wiped out by all the recent thrillers they’ve been playing.
NY JETS AT CAROLINA: Small move here from an opener of Carolina -10.5 up to -11. This wasn’t a game of interest for most sharps. That being said, it went against the grain because many old-school sharps like taking double digits whenever they see them. And, this game opened at 10 with the hook. Wise Guy pushed the line up anyway.
KANSAS CITY AT OAKLAND: Kansas City is another road favorite that was bet early. A few of those this week with so many playoff contenders visiting non-contenders. The Chiefs opened at -3.5 and were bet up to -4.5 or -5. Wise Guys think Oakland’s out of gas after doing so much travelling recently. If the Chiefs weren’t playing their second straight road game, they would have been hit even harder.
GREEN BAY AT DALLAS: There’s no line up yet in this game pending the status of Aaron Rodgers at quarterback for the Packers. Some reports are suggesting that will be a game time decision. That would make Las Vegas sportsbooks FURIOUS because this would normally be a highly bet game in the high profile TV window. Given the huge difference between Rodgers and Flynn in scoreboard potential, sportsbooks know they have to wait.
CINCINNATI AT PITTSBURGH: Thus far we’re looking at a likely tug-of-war here…with Pittsburgh +3 getting strong support, but Cincinnati -2.5 getting enough consideration that a move back to the key number is possible. The public tends to bet favorites in prime time TV games…particularly when it looks like the underdog is out of the playoff picture. Sharps will keep taking Pittsburgh +3 if public money makes it available again.
BALTIMORE AT DETROIT (Monday Night): The big move here has been on the Over. Sharps were shocked at the 46 that came up on the board to open. Quants bet Over 46, Over 47, and some kept investing even at Over 48. This is a must-win game for both teams. Both teams like playing at a fast tempo. Stick that indoors on a fast track, and many simulation methodologies are going to show something close to 50 even with a defense as good as Baltimore’s on the field. The team side line is shaping up as a potential tug-of-war between Detroit -5.5 and Baltimore +6.
Games are presented in rotation order so you can makes notes in your schedules…
WASHINGTON AT ATLANTA: The Falcons opened at -3.5 before it was announced that RGIII was being shut down for the season for the Redskins. The line has ballooned up to Atlanta -7 from sharp and public betting. Sources tell us it’s not that sharps believe Cousins is that much worse than RGIII. In fact, many had them close to even in Griffin’s somewhat hobbled state. Wise Guy money was more based on the general collapse of the team, the soap opera between the head coach and the owner, and what is a tough matchup situation with a bad defense playing indoors on a fast track against a veteran quarterback. We’re hearing that some underdog money is out there waiting to hit the board…waiting to see if +7.5 or +8 becomes available. Nothing yet on the Over/Under. We’ll only mention totals in games where sharp preferences have been made apparent.
SAN FRANCISCO AT TAMPA BAY: Not much betting interest yet in this one. San Francisco opened at -5. Some stores have tested -5.5 just to see if that would encourage anyone to bet. The total has dropped from 42 to 41 based on quant projections that had the game in the high 30’s.
ARIZONA AT TENNESSEE: Looks like we have a tug-of-war shaping up here, with Arizona -2.5 as the road favorite and Tennessee +3 as the home underdog. Sharps with preferences are taking the best line for their side where it’s available. Amazing how far Arizona has come this season that they would be a road favorite this late in the season.
NEW ORLEANS AT ST. LOUIS: New Orleans opened at -4.5 but was bet up to -6 before coming to a stop. That may surprise some of you because the Saints have been money burners on the road this season. This isn’t a dramatic road environment for them though since they play their home games in a dome. Also, the Saints are fighting for the #2 seed and can’t afford an off-week. Sharps liked Drew Brees and company at anything below -6. Sources tell us underdog money would come in at +7 if the public drives the number that high before kickoff. The Over/Under has been bet up from 46.5 to 48 because strong Saints performances tend to feature a lot of points.
SEATTLE AT THE NY GIANTS: Possibly a tug-of-war here with Seattle -6.5 and the Giants +7. This may be a game where the public bets the favorite to such a degree on game day that the line just sits on the key number of seven. Wise Guys preferring the favorite are happy to get less than the touchdown. Seattle hopes to be playing again on this field in about six weeks. Nothing has happened yet on the total, but it will come down if there’s a forecast for windy conditions on game day.
CHICAGO AT CLEVELAND: We’ve had a flipped favorite, as a line of Cleveland -1 turned into Chicago -1 when it was announced that Jay Cutler would be coming back for the Bears. Many sharps had Cutler and Josh McCown rated evenly. We’re hearing this move was more about position taking on the assumption that squares (the public) would back Cutler through the week and on game day. The public likes betting “must win” teams at cheap prices when facing non-contenders.
HOUSTON AT INDIANAPOLIS: The Colts have lost so much respect in the market that they’re now laying only -5.5 points against the team positioned to get the #1 draft pick. Actually, the game opened at Houston +6.5 but was bet down because of poor recent play for Indianapolis. Sharps soured on the Colts a few weeks ago, and have largely been rewarded for that read.
BUFFALO AT JACKSONVILLE: The only betting interest far has been on the Over/Under…where a total of 44 has been bet down to 43. Sources tell us that’s because of the poor offensive play we’ve seen recently from the Bills. Nothing’s happened on the team side line of Buffalo -2. Had sharps liked the Bills, they would have hit that right away. Sharps preferring Jacksonville are just going to wait to see if they get a better price.
NEW ENGLAND AT MIAMI: We’ve had a big move here, as an opener of New England -3 has been bet down to Patriots -1 or pick-em. Sharps know how big Rob Gronkowski is to this team. Those using simulation software couldn’t believe they could get Miami at home in a must-win situation at +3. And, it’s telling that money kept coming in on the Dolphins at +2.5, +2, and +1.5. There’s that much skepticism about New England’s offense when they have to play shorthanded.
PHILADELPHIA AT MINNESOTA: Big jump here as Philadelphia opened at -3.5 and has been bet up to -5.5 or -6. Oddsmakers expected affection for the Eagles, which is why the game opened on their side of the key number. But, they underestimated Wise Guy support. We’re hearing this game may scoot past the six because sharps really like what they’re seeing recently from Philly’s offense (even in a blizzard!), and because Minnesota’s already bad defense should be wiped out by all the recent thrillers they’ve been playing.
NY JETS AT CAROLINA: Small move here from an opener of Carolina -10.5 up to -11. This wasn’t a game of interest for most sharps. That being said, it went against the grain because many old-school sharps like taking double digits whenever they see them. And, this game opened at 10 with the hook. Wise Guy pushed the line up anyway.
KANSAS CITY AT OAKLAND: Kansas City is another road favorite that was bet early. A few of those this week with so many playoff contenders visiting non-contenders. The Chiefs opened at -3.5 and were bet up to -4.5 or -5. Wise Guys think Oakland’s out of gas after doing so much travelling recently. If the Chiefs weren’t playing their second straight road game, they would have been hit even harder.
GREEN BAY AT DALLAS: There’s no line up yet in this game pending the status of Aaron Rodgers at quarterback for the Packers. Some reports are suggesting that will be a game time decision. That would make Las Vegas sportsbooks FURIOUS because this would normally be a highly bet game in the high profile TV window. Given the huge difference between Rodgers and Flynn in scoreboard potential, sportsbooks know they have to wait.
CINCINNATI AT PITTSBURGH: Thus far we’re looking at a likely tug-of-war here…with Pittsburgh +3 getting strong support, but Cincinnati -2.5 getting enough consideration that a move back to the key number is possible. The public tends to bet favorites in prime time TV games…particularly when it looks like the underdog is out of the playoff picture. Sharps will keep taking Pittsburgh +3 if public money makes it available again.
BALTIMORE AT DETROIT (Monday Night): The big move here has been on the Over. Sharps were shocked at the 46 that came up on the board to open. Quants bet Over 46, Over 47, and some kept investing even at Over 48. This is a must-win game for both teams. Both teams like playing at a fast tempo. Stick that indoors on a fast track, and many simulation methodologies are going to show something close to 50 even with a defense as good as Baltimore’s on the field. The team side line is shaping up as a potential tug-of-war between Detroit -5.5 and Baltimore +6.
