BANKROLL $75k
now $75,751.00
INV 7-7 -$154.00
ACTION 15-14 +905.00
TOTAL 22-21 +751.00
411 system. 6-2. 75%
last 5. 5-0. System get better as the weeks go on
I’m a very strong believer in focusing on your strengths when it comes to making money. Most sports bettors don't live like kings because they make poor betting decisions.
WHAT THE PUBLIC DOES WRONG
Betting too many games
Betting too large for their bankrolls
Betting for entertainment
Thinking they’re smart when they got lucky!
WHAT WINNERS FOCUS ON
Their geographical areas of lifetime expertise
The teams and conferences they know best
The weaknesses in the market they’ve always exploited
For some handicappers, that could mean SEC football, ACC basketball, and the NFL teams they grew up watching on TV. For others, it could mean specializing on underdogs (I have more upset calls than any other handicapper in documented history), or blowout scenarios where the market has underestimated the superior team’s ability to run up the score.
I constantly run into sports bettors who are basically 50/50 lifetime because they do well in their areas of specialty, but can’t resist betting too many other games because they love the action. Look, if you “chase” the thrill of winning, you’re going to constantly be losing. But, if you focus on your areas of specialty, THEN you’ll enjoy the thrill of winning! Winning comes to you when you bet correctly.
now $75,751.00
INV 7-7 -$154.00
ACTION 15-14 +905.00
TOTAL 22-21 +751.00
411 system. 6-2. 75%
last 5. 5-0. System get better as the weeks go on
I’m a very strong believer in focusing on your strengths when it comes to making money. Most sports bettors don't live like kings because they make poor betting decisions.
WHAT THE PUBLIC DOES WRONG
Betting too many games
Betting too large for their bankrolls
Betting for entertainment
Thinking they’re smart when they got lucky!
WHAT WINNERS FOCUS ON
Their geographical areas of lifetime expertise
The teams and conferences they know best
The weaknesses in the market they’ve always exploited
For some handicappers, that could mean SEC football, ACC basketball, and the NFL teams they grew up watching on TV. For others, it could mean specializing on underdogs (I have more upset calls than any other handicapper in documented history), or blowout scenarios where the market has underestimated the superior team’s ability to run up the score.
I constantly run into sports bettors who are basically 50/50 lifetime because they do well in their areas of specialty, but can’t resist betting too many other games because they love the action. Look, if you “chase” the thrill of winning, you’re going to constantly be losing. But, if you focus on your areas of specialty, THEN you’ll enjoy the thrill of winning! Winning comes to you when you bet correctly.
ALL LINE ARE PER SET FOR THE WHOLE YEAR.... THAN COMES ADJUSTMENT. WEEK AFTER WEEK
IF YOU LIKE LINE MOVEMENT....THIS IS THE BEST WAY TO VIEW IT. LONG TERM
BASE ON WHAT THE LINE WAS ON WEEK 1
this is one of the views I use last 4 weeks any game that the line move more than 3 points
as a record of 8-3
two this week
DAL
SEA
PRINT THOSE LINES BELOW
ACE
Week 8
San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (-8.5), Thursday
Detroit Lions (-1) at Atlanta Falcons
Houston Texas at Tennessee Titans (PK)
Seattle Seahawks (-1.5) at Carolina Panthers
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-3)
Miami Dolphins (-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars
St. Louis Rams at Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5)
Chicago Bears at New England Patriots (-4.5)
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (-2.5)
Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)
Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals (-2)
Oakland Raiders at Cleveland Browns (-4.5)
Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2)
Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints (-2.5)
Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-4.5), Monday
Week 9
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (-2.5), Thursday
Tampa Buccaneers at Cleveland Browns (-2.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals, (-11)
Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5)
Philadelphia Eagles at Houston Texans (PK)
New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs (-6)
San Diego Chargers at Miami Dolphins (-2.5)
Washington Redskins at Minnesota Vikings (-1.5)
St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-11)
Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (-1)
Oakland Raiders at Seattle Seahawks (-14.5)
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5)
Indianapolis Colts at New York Giants (-1), Monday
Week 10
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5), Thursday
Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens (-6)
Kansas City Chiefs (-2) at Buffalo Bills
Miami Dolphins at Detroit Lions (-5)
Dallas Cowboys (-10) at Jacksonville Jaguars
San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints (-1.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers (-2) at New York Jets
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (PK)
Denver Broncos (-10) at Oakland Raiders
St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-4)
New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks (-10)
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-6)
Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles (-1), Monday
Week 11
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-3.5), Thursday
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-7)
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-4)
Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns (-1.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Redskins (-2.5)
Denver Broncos (-4.5) at St. Louis Rams
San Francisco 49ers (-3 (-120)) at New York Giants
Cincinnati Bengals at New Orleans Saints (-4)
Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (-4.5)
Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers (-8)
Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals (-2.5)
New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts (-1)
Pittsburgh Steelers (-2) at Tennessee Titans, Monday
Week 12
Kansas City Chiefs (-4) at Oakland Raiders, Thursday
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-12)
Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans (PK)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears (-6)
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-2.5)
Cleveland Browns at Atlanta Falcons (-7 (even))
Green Bay Packers (-4.5) at Minnesota Vikings
Tennessee Titans at Philadelphia Eagles (-7)
Detroit Lions at New England Patriots (-6)
St. Louis Rams at San Diego Chargers (-4)
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-10.5)
Washington Redskins at San Francisco 49ers (-8.5)
Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos (-10)
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (-2.5)
Baltimore Ravens at New Orleans Saints (-6.5), Monday
Week 13
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-3), Thursday
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-1.5), Thursday
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-2.5), Thursday
Oakland Raiders at St. Louis Rams (-5.5)
Cincinnati Bengals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (PK)
San Diego Chargers at Baltimore Ravens (-3)
Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills (-2.5)
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (-5)
Washington Redskins at Indianapolis Colts (-6)
New York Giants (-5.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Carolina Panthers (-3) at Minnesota Vikings
New Orleans Saints at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5)
Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons (-4)
New England Patriots at Green Bay Packers (-3.5)
Denver Broncos (-3) at Kansas City Chiefs
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (-1), Monday
Week 14
Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears (-4.5), Thursday
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions (-6)
Houston Texans (-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Indianapolis Colts (-1) at Cleveland Browns
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-3)
Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins (PK)
St. Louis Rams at Washington Redskins (-2.5)
New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings (-2)
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-3.5)
New York Giants (-1) at Tennessee Titans
Kansas City Chiefs at Arizona Cardinals (-2)
Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos (-11.5)
San Francisco 49ers (-7) at Oakland Raiders
Seattle Seahawks (-1) at Philadelphia Eagles
New England Patriots (-1) at San Diego Chargers
Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers (-6.5), Monday
Week 15
Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis (-1), Thursday
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-6.5)
Green Bay Packers (-4.5) at Buffalo Bills
Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens (-10.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)
Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5) at Cleveland Browns
Washington Redskins at New York Giants (-3.5)
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-7)
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-4.5)
Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5)
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-6.5)
Denver Broncos (-3.5) at San Diego Chargers
New York Jets at Tennessee Titans (-1.5)
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5)
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-3)
New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears (-3), Monday
Week 16
Tennessee Titans (-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars, Thursday
Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5) at Washington Redskins, Saturday
San Diego Chargers at San Francisco 49ers (-7), Saturday
Cleveland Browns at Carolina Panthers (-7.5)
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-4)
Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans (-1)
Minnesota Vikings at Miami Dolphins (-4)
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-6.5)
New England Patriots (-3) at New York Jets
Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5)
Green Bay Packers (-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
New York Giants at St. Louis Rams (-3)
Indianapolis Colts at Dallas Cowboys (-2.5)
Buffalo Bills (-1) at Oakland Raiders
Seattle Seahawks (-3.5) at Arizona Cardinals
Denver Broncos (-1.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
IF YOU LIKE LINE MOVEMENT....THIS IS THE BEST WAY TO VIEW IT. LONG TERM
BASE ON WHAT THE LINE WAS ON WEEK 1
this is one of the views I use last 4 weeks any game that the line move more than 3 points
as a record of 8-3
two this week
DAL
SEA
PRINT THOSE LINES BELOW
ACE
Week 8
San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (-8.5), Thursday
Detroit Lions (-1) at Atlanta Falcons
Houston Texas at Tennessee Titans (PK)
Seattle Seahawks (-1.5) at Carolina Panthers
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-3)
Miami Dolphins (-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars
St. Louis Rams at Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5)
Chicago Bears at New England Patriots (-4.5)
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (-2.5)
Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)
Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals (-2)
Oakland Raiders at Cleveland Browns (-4.5)
Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2)
Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints (-2.5)
Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-4.5), Monday
Week 9
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (-2.5), Thursday
Tampa Buccaneers at Cleveland Browns (-2.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals, (-11)
Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5)
Philadelphia Eagles at Houston Texans (PK)
New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs (-6)
San Diego Chargers at Miami Dolphins (-2.5)
Washington Redskins at Minnesota Vikings (-1.5)
St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-11)
Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (-1)
Oakland Raiders at Seattle Seahawks (-14.5)
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5)
Indianapolis Colts at New York Giants (-1), Monday
Week 10
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5), Thursday
Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens (-6)
Kansas City Chiefs (-2) at Buffalo Bills
Miami Dolphins at Detroit Lions (-5)
Dallas Cowboys (-10) at Jacksonville Jaguars
San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints (-1.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers (-2) at New York Jets
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (PK)
Denver Broncos (-10) at Oakland Raiders
St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-4)
New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks (-10)
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-6)
Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles (-1), Monday
Week 11
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-3.5), Thursday
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-7)
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-4)
Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns (-1.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Redskins (-2.5)
Denver Broncos (-4.5) at St. Louis Rams
San Francisco 49ers (-3 (-120)) at New York Giants
Cincinnati Bengals at New Orleans Saints (-4)
Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (-4.5)
Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers (-8)
Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals (-2.5)
New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts (-1)
Pittsburgh Steelers (-2) at Tennessee Titans, Monday
Week 12
Kansas City Chiefs (-4) at Oakland Raiders, Thursday
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-12)
Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans (PK)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears (-6)
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-2.5)
Cleveland Browns at Atlanta Falcons (-7 (even))
Green Bay Packers (-4.5) at Minnesota Vikings
Tennessee Titans at Philadelphia Eagles (-7)
Detroit Lions at New England Patriots (-6)
St. Louis Rams at San Diego Chargers (-4)
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-10.5)
Washington Redskins at San Francisco 49ers (-8.5)
Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos (-10)
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (-2.5)
Baltimore Ravens at New Orleans Saints (-6.5), Monday
Week 13
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-3), Thursday
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-1.5), Thursday
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-2.5), Thursday
Oakland Raiders at St. Louis Rams (-5.5)
Cincinnati Bengals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (PK)
San Diego Chargers at Baltimore Ravens (-3)
Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills (-2.5)
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (-5)
Washington Redskins at Indianapolis Colts (-6)
New York Giants (-5.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Carolina Panthers (-3) at Minnesota Vikings
New Orleans Saints at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5)
Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons (-4)
New England Patriots at Green Bay Packers (-3.5)
Denver Broncos (-3) at Kansas City Chiefs
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (-1), Monday
Week 14
Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears (-4.5), Thursday
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions (-6)
Houston Texans (-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Indianapolis Colts (-1) at Cleveland Browns
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-3)
Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins (PK)
St. Louis Rams at Washington Redskins (-2.5)
New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings (-2)
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-3.5)
New York Giants (-1) at Tennessee Titans
Kansas City Chiefs at Arizona Cardinals (-2)
Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos (-11.5)
San Francisco 49ers (-7) at Oakland Raiders
Seattle Seahawks (-1) at Philadelphia Eagles
New England Patriots (-1) at San Diego Chargers
Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers (-6.5), Monday
Week 15
Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis (-1), Thursday
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-6.5)
Green Bay Packers (-4.5) at Buffalo Bills
Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens (-10.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)
Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5) at Cleveland Browns
Washington Redskins at New York Giants (-3.5)
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-7)
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-4.5)
Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5)
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-6.5)
Denver Broncos (-3.5) at San Diego Chargers
New York Jets at Tennessee Titans (-1.5)
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5)
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-3)
New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears (-3), Monday
Week 16
Tennessee Titans (-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars, Thursday
Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5) at Washington Redskins, Saturday
San Diego Chargers at San Francisco 49ers (-7), Saturday
Cleveland Browns at Carolina Panthers (-7.5)
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-4)
Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans (-1)
Minnesota Vikings at Miami Dolphins (-4)
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-6.5)
New England Patriots (-3) at New York Jets
Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5)
Green Bay Packers (-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
New York Giants at St. Louis Rams (-3)
Indianapolis Colts at Dallas Cowboys (-2.5)
Buffalo Bills (-1) at Oakland Raiders
Seattle Seahawks (-3.5) at Arizona Cardinals
Denver Broncos (-1.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
All the games. Myline numbers
SD -5.5
Det -9
Sea -7.5
bal -7.5
mia -8.5
kc -7
ne -3
nyj pk
min -5
hou -3
az -6.5
cle -9.5
ind -5.5
gb-2
dal-11
we are looking for the value in the line.....there is more than one way to see this....I have alway said +6 value is what I like to see
lets take SEA....REAL LINE IS -4. Myline is -7.5. Only a +3.5 value....BUT ITS OVER A PRIME NUMBER 7
so as you see you could find a big value in SEA GOING OVER A PRIME NUMBER. More than one way to use MYLINE.
SD -5.5
Det -9
Sea -7.5
bal -7.5
mia -8.5
kc -7
ne -3
nyj pk
min -5
hou -3
az -6.5
cle -9.5
ind -5.5
gb-2
dal-11
we are looking for the value in the line.....there is more than one way to see this....I have alway said +6 value is what I like to see
lets take SEA....REAL LINE IS -4. Myline is -7.5. Only a +3.5 value....BUT ITS OVER A PRIME NUMBER 7
so as you see you could find a big value in SEA GOING OVER A PRIME NUMBER. More than one way to use MYLINE.
Newsletter
GS
http://www.mediafire.com/download/jo5elxpmmh6ahcu/GS_NO_9.pdf
GSX
http://www.mediafire.com/download/cye4kl88pz1acez/GS_XTRA_NO_9.pdf
CKO
http://www.mediafire.com/download/iu8geylnngbz71b/GS_CKO_NO_9.pdf
GT
http://www.mediafire.com/download/13ayk8slzgzxcz3/gt10212014_v2.pdf.pdf
Week 9 Advance lines
http://www.mediafire.com/download/at59v9gr003d3vh/week+9+LINES.pdf
VK's total tipsheet
http://www.mediafire.com/download/sl3kdbblxa5bev1/2014Tipsheet8.pdf
PS
http://www.mediafire.com/download/8ellv7rwx8m0x1p/Power+Sweep+9.pdf
PP
http://www.mediafire.com/download/xz32yq3nr3q3iqg/PowerPlays9.pdf
SR
http://www.mediafire.com/download/8t6x58wd7mjm2s9/Sports+Reporter+Week+9.pdf
SF
http://www.mediafire.com/download/bbz2haehxf5j2jr/Statfox9.pdf
WP
http://www.mediafire.com/download/n5cffdkj556f2c4/Winning+Points+%281%29.pDF
Nelly
http://www.mediafire.com/download/s5vu01lpi2lqb5x/GreenSheet9.pdf
PW
http://www.mediafire.com/download/y313wgtr59uexrc/Pointwise+Wk#+9.pdf#_9.pdf
PlayBook
http://www.mediafire.com/download/u25jrq3q8ccfai7/2014PB10(2).pdf
GS
http://www.mediafire.com/download/jo5elxpmmh6ahcu/GS_NO_9.pdf
GSX
http://www.mediafire.com/download/cye4kl88pz1acez/GS_XTRA_NO_9.pdf
CKO
http://www.mediafire.com/download/iu8geylnngbz71b/GS_CKO_NO_9.pdf
GT
http://www.mediafire.com/download/13ayk8slzgzxcz3/gt10212014_v2.pdf.pdf
Week 9 Advance lines
http://www.mediafire.com/download/at59v9gr003d3vh/week+9+LINES.pdf
VK's total tipsheet
http://www.mediafire.com/download/sl3kdbblxa5bev1/2014Tipsheet8.pdf
PS
http://www.mediafire.com/download/8ellv7rwx8m0x1p/Power+Sweep+9.pdf
PP
http://www.mediafire.com/download/xz32yq3nr3q3iqg/PowerPlays9.pdf
SR
http://www.mediafire.com/download/8t6x58wd7mjm2s9/Sports+Reporter+Week+9.pdf
SF
http://www.mediafire.com/download/bbz2haehxf5j2jr/Statfox9.pdf
WP
http://www.mediafire.com/download/n5cffdkj556f2c4/Winning+Points+%281%29.pDF
Nelly
http://www.mediafire.com/download/s5vu01lpi2lqb5x/GreenSheet9.pdf
PW
http://www.mediafire.com/download/y313wgtr59uexrc/Pointwise+Wk#+9.pdf#_9.pdf
PlayBook
http://www.mediafire.com/download/u25jrq3q8ccfai7/2014PB10(2).pdf
[h=1]HOW SHARPS ARE BETTING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOOTBALL[/h]
SAN DIEGO at DENVER (Thursday-NFL): Denver opened at -7, but was immediately bet up to -7.5 by early position takers or sharps preferring the Broncos who knew they wouldn’t see anything cheaper. As of publication time Thursday, we’re now seeing Denver -8 in many stores, with some testing -8.5. As you regular readers know, this is a trouble spot for sportsbooks. Denver is in the teaser window for “basic strategy” two-teamers that cross both the 3 and the 7. Many sharps AND squares will be putting Denver -2 or -2.5 in six-point teasers. (In fact, many Wise Guys will pair Denver up in what had been open-ended teasers with Houston +8.5 from this past Monday Night).
Sources tell us that sharp money on San Diego will eventually hit the board during the day, as dog backers are waiting to see how many points they can get before jumping in. The public is going to bet Denver…which could conceivably push the game all the way to -9. Sharps who wanted Denver are in a -7, and are very happy with teaser options. Sharps preferring San Diego are waiting to see what they can get.
The Over/Under has nudged upward from 51 to 51.5. There’s plenty of time for a bigger move. You saw in Tuesday’s Sun Belt game that steam can really take off on a total in the hours before kickoff.
CONNECTICUT at EAST CAROLINA (Thursday-College): This projected blowout was bet up from an opener of East Carolina -26.5 to the somewhat “key” number of -28. It hasn’t moved past the four-TD threshold. This isn’t a high interest game for sharps, or a game the public is likely to bet heavily. Sharps expecting EC to run up the score got in below -28. Value dog bets from old-school sharps are likely to come in late in the day at whatever’s perceived to be the likely apex at the time. No interest yet on the total.
MIAMI at VIRGINIA TECH (Thursday-College): Huge move here initially, as the market responded to injury news regarding Virginia Tech and other concerns. We had a flipped favorite for awhile, as an opener of Virginia Tech -3 moved all the way to Miami -2.5 or -3. But, Virginia Tech was BLASTED Thursday morning by some Wise Guys...actually RE-FLIPPING the favorite! Minutes before posting this article, I was seeing Virginia Tech -1 at many locales...but with indications that more Miami money was about to hit the board hard in response. Looks like we have strong opinions from different syndicates on both sides of this game. We have a meaningful move on the total, as an opener of 51.5 has been bet down to 49. Some stores are testing 48.5 as we go to press.
TROY at SOUTH ALABAMA (Friday-College): Favored South Alabama was bet up from the opener of 12.5 to the key number of -14. Some of that was position-taking on the assumption that the line would rise. That strategy will lead some Troy money finding the board for middles at +14 or anything better. This isn’t likely to be bet much by the public. USA money is in at -12.5 and -13. Old school “double digit dogs always offer value” money will probably trickle in Friday afternoon.
SOUTH FLORIDA at CINCINNATI (Friday-College): It’s always telling when an openermoves towards the underdog. Sharps weren’t waiting to see if public money would come in. South Florida +11 on the opener has been bet down to +10.5, with some +10’s being tested. Sources tell us many of the Wise Guys were surprised the game opened so high and didn’t want to miss the eleven. The Over/Under has been bet up two points from an opener of 58 to 60. That combination is an indictment of the Cincinnati defense. Any “Dog and Over” combo is telling you sharps expect a shootout.
BYU at BOISE STATE (Friday-College): Position-takers jumped on Boise State at the opener of -6…because Boise always gets bet at home, and because BYU hasn’t excelled with their new quarterback since star Taysom Hill was lost for the season to injury. But, there’s enough Wise Guy skepticism about Boise State this year when matched up vs. quality that a tug-of-war looks to be starting between Boise State -6.5 and BYU +7. I'm also hearing that the upgrade of BYU running back Jamaal Williams is a factor here, as he's expected to take some of the offensive load away from new quarterback Christian Steart. This is the ESPN game Friday Night, and the public usually bets Boise State on TV. Looks like sharps will have plenty of opportunities to get BYU at +7 or better in the hours leading up to kickoff. The total is up a point from 58 to 59.
OREGON at CALIFORNIA (Friday-College): Interesting game here in market terms. Oregon has a history of running up the score, and is often bet by the public. Sharps have generally liked improved California this year…though many took a big hit when the Bears lost at Washington recently. An opener of Oregon -18.5 has come down to Cal +18 or +17.5. That’s telling because it went against the projected square side before squares had much of a chance to bet. Nobody’s waiting to see if they get anything better! More than a few Wise Guys like fading Oregon on the road. It’s only been sharp money coming in early. Sportsbooks are lowering the number to encourage the public to take shots on the Ducks. The Over/Under is up from 78.5 to 80.
SAN DIEGO at DENVER (Thursday-NFL): Denver opened at -7, but was immediately bet up to -7.5 by early position takers or sharps preferring the Broncos who knew they wouldn’t see anything cheaper. As of publication time Thursday, we’re now seeing Denver -8 in many stores, with some testing -8.5. As you regular readers know, this is a trouble spot for sportsbooks. Denver is in the teaser window for “basic strategy” two-teamers that cross both the 3 and the 7. Many sharps AND squares will be putting Denver -2 or -2.5 in six-point teasers. (In fact, many Wise Guys will pair Denver up in what had been open-ended teasers with Houston +8.5 from this past Monday Night).
Sources tell us that sharp money on San Diego will eventually hit the board during the day, as dog backers are waiting to see how many points they can get before jumping in. The public is going to bet Denver…which could conceivably push the game all the way to -9. Sharps who wanted Denver are in a -7, and are very happy with teaser options. Sharps preferring San Diego are waiting to see what they can get.
The Over/Under has nudged upward from 51 to 51.5. There’s plenty of time for a bigger move. You saw in Tuesday’s Sun Belt game that steam can really take off on a total in the hours before kickoff.
CONNECTICUT at EAST CAROLINA (Thursday-College): This projected blowout was bet up from an opener of East Carolina -26.5 to the somewhat “key” number of -28. It hasn’t moved past the four-TD threshold. This isn’t a high interest game for sharps, or a game the public is likely to bet heavily. Sharps expecting EC to run up the score got in below -28. Value dog bets from old-school sharps are likely to come in late in the day at whatever’s perceived to be the likely apex at the time. No interest yet on the total.
MIAMI at VIRGINIA TECH (Thursday-College): Huge move here initially, as the market responded to injury news regarding Virginia Tech and other concerns. We had a flipped favorite for awhile, as an opener of Virginia Tech -3 moved all the way to Miami -2.5 or -3. But, Virginia Tech was BLASTED Thursday morning by some Wise Guys...actually RE-FLIPPING the favorite! Minutes before posting this article, I was seeing Virginia Tech -1 at many locales...but with indications that more Miami money was about to hit the board hard in response. Looks like we have strong opinions from different syndicates on both sides of this game. We have a meaningful move on the total, as an opener of 51.5 has been bet down to 49. Some stores are testing 48.5 as we go to press.
TROY at SOUTH ALABAMA (Friday-College): Favored South Alabama was bet up from the opener of 12.5 to the key number of -14. Some of that was position-taking on the assumption that the line would rise. That strategy will lead some Troy money finding the board for middles at +14 or anything better. This isn’t likely to be bet much by the public. USA money is in at -12.5 and -13. Old school “double digit dogs always offer value” money will probably trickle in Friday afternoon.
SOUTH FLORIDA at CINCINNATI (Friday-College): It’s always telling when an openermoves towards the underdog. Sharps weren’t waiting to see if public money would come in. South Florida +11 on the opener has been bet down to +10.5, with some +10’s being tested. Sources tell us many of the Wise Guys were surprised the game opened so high and didn’t want to miss the eleven. The Over/Under has been bet up two points from an opener of 58 to 60. That combination is an indictment of the Cincinnati defense. Any “Dog and Over” combo is telling you sharps expect a shootout.
BYU at BOISE STATE (Friday-College): Position-takers jumped on Boise State at the opener of -6…because Boise always gets bet at home, and because BYU hasn’t excelled with their new quarterback since star Taysom Hill was lost for the season to injury. But, there’s enough Wise Guy skepticism about Boise State this year when matched up vs. quality that a tug-of-war looks to be starting between Boise State -6.5 and BYU +7. I'm also hearing that the upgrade of BYU running back Jamaal Williams is a factor here, as he's expected to take some of the offensive load away from new quarterback Christian Steart. This is the ESPN game Friday Night, and the public usually bets Boise State on TV. Looks like sharps will have plenty of opportunities to get BYU at +7 or better in the hours leading up to kickoff. The total is up a point from 58 to 59.
OREGON at CALIFORNIA (Friday-College): Interesting game here in market terms. Oregon has a history of running up the score, and is often bet by the public. Sharps have generally liked improved California this year…though many took a big hit when the Bears lost at Washington recently. An opener of Oregon -18.5 has come down to Cal +18 or +17.5. That’s telling because it went against the projected square side before squares had much of a chance to bet. Nobody’s waiting to see if they get anything better! More than a few Wise Guys like fading Oregon on the road. It’s only been sharp money coming in early. Sportsbooks are lowering the number to encourage the public to take shots on the Ducks. The Over/Under is up from 78.5 to 80.
Sharp report
DETROIT AT ATLANTA (London): Most sharps prefer waiting for confirmed status of Megatron before stepping out in any game involving the Lions. To this point there’s been some interest on Atlanta +4, dropping the number to +3.5 at many locales. Remember that this is a neutral field game. These teams were seen as about even in most respected Power Ratings back after Atlanta won its season opener over New Orleans. The surge to a four-point differential is very big by NFL standards. Not much interest yet on the Over/Under. We’ll only mention totals today when there’s been a move of at least one point.
MINNESOTA AT TAMPA BAY: Generally a solid Tampa Bay -2.5 right now. Tough spot for sportsbooks because most sentiment thus far has been on the Bucs -2.5. Any move to the three would bring in much stronger support for Minnesota on the key number. But, if sportsbooks stick at 2.5, then Minnesota +8.5 will be a heavily bet option in two-team teasers. They’ll have to pick their poison. The small number of sharps preferring Tampa Bay are in at -2.5 (if there were a large number of sharps, the line would be a solid three). Those preferring Minnesota will play teasers and wait to see if +3 becomes widely available. The Over/Under has dropped a point from 43 to 42, keyed by the general lack of offensive production from Teddy Bridgewater in recent action.
CHICAGO AT NEW ENGLAND: We’re seeing a solid six right now, after New England had opened at -6.5. It’s telling that sharps jumped in immediately on the dog rather than waiting to see if +7 came available after public betting. The six looks to be the dividing line that brings in sharp money on the Bears and square money on the Pats. Big early move on the Over/Under, with an opener of 49 being bet up to 51. That suggests the weather will be nice Sunday in Foxboro, and that quants are expecting production from both quarterbacks.
ST. LOUIS AT KANSAS CITY: The Chiefs have been bet up from an opener of -6 to -7 in many spots, with a few testing even higher numbers. Why such support for Alex Smith all of a sudden? Sources tell us that this is an anti-St. Louis play in large part, as situational handicappers expect a flat performance after a pair of divisional showdowns for the Rams. It’s obviously a letdown spot off the Seattle upset. St. Louis played San Francisco the week before, and then has two divisional road games immediately on deck. It should be mentioned though that the Chiefs have been rising in sharp Power Ratings ever since that Monday Night shellacking of New England. Last week’s win at San Diego didn’t hurt either. Kansas City is now rated as a clear playoff caliber team rather than a question mark. Note that if the Chiefs get pushed past -7 to -7.5, they will become a popular choice in two-team teasers too.
SEATTLE AT CAROLINA: Seattle opened at -3.5, and has been bet up to -5. This is obviously a huge bounce back spot for the Seahawks off back-to-back losses. Plus, sharps entered the season skeptical about Carolina, and have really soured on this defense in recent weeks. Seattle hasn’t taken much of a hit in Wise Guy Power Ratings because the talent is still there. Sharps will regret not docking them if the team keeps losing. Seattle is 2-4 ATS at the end of regulation enduring their Super Bowl hangover.
BUFFALO AT NY JETS: An opener of NYJ -2.5 has moved to a solid three through the week. Sharps who wanted the Jets because of the percentage power of the key number got in immediately. There wasn’t enough of a buyback initially to create a tug-of-war between Jets -2.5 and Buffalo +3. Sources tell us more sharps prefer Buffalo at the three…and may come in heavily on game day to see if they can drop the number to +2.5 to set up two-team teaser possibilities on Buffalo +8.5.
MIAMI AT JACKSONVILLE: Miami opened at -4.5, and has been bet up to -6. That may not be as dramatic a move as it first looks because the five isn’t a very important number in football betting. But, it’s telling that Jacksonville money didn’t come in at the six. In fact, some stores are testing Miami -6.5 to see if that brings in some balancing Jaguars action. We hear sharps like what they’re seeing from the Dolphins the past few weeks. Miami blew out Oakland, lost to Green Bay in the final seconds, then controlled the Chicago game on the road last week. That’s another team improving in recent Wise Guy Power Ratings.
HOUSTON AT TENNESSEE: This line moved from Houston -1 to Houston -3 on the news that rookie Zach Mettenberger would get the start for the Titans. He’s an unknown quantity at this level. This is not likely to be a heavily bet game from sharps or squares until everyone sees Mettenberger in action. Maybe the Wise Guys will express a sentiment in the hours before kickoff. There are no rumblings of anything imminent as of press time. Note that the Over/Under dropped from 43.5 to 42 on the same news.
BALTIMORE AT CINCINNATI: The Bengals are dealing with a slew of injuries. That plus recent disappointments while playing shorthanded have soured the sharps on their current form. An opener of Cincinnati -2.5 has been bet all the way to Baltimore -1. The Ravens were -1 back when these teams played each other in the season opener…in Baltimore! You would expect a move of about 5-6 points in a site switch…so there’s been a dramatic change in perception for these two teams since early September. Baltimore is on the list of rising teams. Shorthanded Cincinnati isn’t seen as playoff caliber, coming off a combined 70-17 loss to New England and Indianapolis, plus the five-quarter tie against fading Carolina. It’s the Ravens who are Power Rated as the best team in the AFC North at the moment.
PHILADELPHIA AT ARIZONA: This game has been sitting on Arizona -2.5 all week. Right away you know that the sharps don’t like the hosts, or they would have pushed the game to three immediately in advance of typical public action on home favorites. No position-takers! That tells you that sharps would pound the Eagles if the number came up, and will likely be pounding the Eagles in two-team teasers at +8.5. This one will likely stay on the 2.5 unless the public creates a tug-of-war on game day with support for the cheap home favorite. Arizona’s not a “national” team yet, so that’s probably not likely.
INDIANAPOLIS AT PITTSBURGH: A fairly solid three all week, with Indianapolis priced as a road favorite. Sentiment is heavily their way though, and some stores are testing Indy at -3.5 to see if that generates interest in the Steelers. Normally Wise Guys would fade a move off the key number. But, Indy is in very good form right now, while Pittsburgh manages to look bad even when they win and cover. We’ll have to see if game day brings a tug-of-war around the key number. For now, the sharps who like Indy are in at the field goal. It’s a bit of mystery how much interest sharps would have in the inconsistent Steelers at better prices.
OAKLAND AT CLEVELAND: Looks like a tug-of-war shaping up between Cleveland -6.5 and Oakland +7. Those playing Cleveland in the bounce-back spot against the inconsistent Raiders are pretty sure -6.5 is the best they’re going to see. Old school sharps…those most likely to think Cleveland shouldn’t be favored by that much over anybody (possibly proven true in the loss last week to Jacksonville!)…are coming in on the Raiders at the full seven. The public generally comes in on home favorites in the late TV window, but Oakland does have a “locals” betting presence in Nevada because of geographic proximity. The tug-of-war could continue until kickoff unless one or two syndicates make major moves on game day.
GREEN BAY AT NEW ORLEANS (Sunday Night): An opener of New Orleans -2 has been bet down to -1.5. New Orleans is one of the teams that’s been sliding backward in Wise Guy Power Ratings. But, this team’s home history in the Brees era makes them tough to fade aggressively at such low prices. Note that Green Bay money is much more likely to come in on two-team teasers that cross both the 3 and the 7. This is likely to be a heavily bet game in Las Vegas because of entertainment value. Sharps may be waiting for that heavy public involvement before hitting the board aggressively themselves. We can assume the Wise Guys don’t love the Saints or they would have hit them at such a low number! Big early move on the Over, as the opening total of 54 has been bet up to 56. Sharps are expecting a high scoring shootout featuring star quarterbacks.
WASHINGTON AT DALLAS (Monday Night): The line jumped from the opener on reports that Colt McCoy was going to get the start for the Redskins. The early post of Dallas -7.5 is all the way up to -9.5, with some stores testing the full ten. The sharps aren’t fond of McCoy because of poor arm strength and the tendency to get rattled when under pressure. It may take more than +10 to get them involved. The opening total of 51 is down to 49 because Washington will either struggle to score, or will take their time grinding clock if they are able to move the ball.
DETROIT AT ATLANTA (London): Most sharps prefer waiting for confirmed status of Megatron before stepping out in any game involving the Lions. To this point there’s been some interest on Atlanta +4, dropping the number to +3.5 at many locales. Remember that this is a neutral field game. These teams were seen as about even in most respected Power Ratings back after Atlanta won its season opener over New Orleans. The surge to a four-point differential is very big by NFL standards. Not much interest yet on the Over/Under. We’ll only mention totals today when there’s been a move of at least one point.
MINNESOTA AT TAMPA BAY: Generally a solid Tampa Bay -2.5 right now. Tough spot for sportsbooks because most sentiment thus far has been on the Bucs -2.5. Any move to the three would bring in much stronger support for Minnesota on the key number. But, if sportsbooks stick at 2.5, then Minnesota +8.5 will be a heavily bet option in two-team teasers. They’ll have to pick their poison. The small number of sharps preferring Tampa Bay are in at -2.5 (if there were a large number of sharps, the line would be a solid three). Those preferring Minnesota will play teasers and wait to see if +3 becomes widely available. The Over/Under has dropped a point from 43 to 42, keyed by the general lack of offensive production from Teddy Bridgewater in recent action.
CHICAGO AT NEW ENGLAND: We’re seeing a solid six right now, after New England had opened at -6.5. It’s telling that sharps jumped in immediately on the dog rather than waiting to see if +7 came available after public betting. The six looks to be the dividing line that brings in sharp money on the Bears and square money on the Pats. Big early move on the Over/Under, with an opener of 49 being bet up to 51. That suggests the weather will be nice Sunday in Foxboro, and that quants are expecting production from both quarterbacks.
ST. LOUIS AT KANSAS CITY: The Chiefs have been bet up from an opener of -6 to -7 in many spots, with a few testing even higher numbers. Why such support for Alex Smith all of a sudden? Sources tell us that this is an anti-St. Louis play in large part, as situational handicappers expect a flat performance after a pair of divisional showdowns for the Rams. It’s obviously a letdown spot off the Seattle upset. St. Louis played San Francisco the week before, and then has two divisional road games immediately on deck. It should be mentioned though that the Chiefs have been rising in sharp Power Ratings ever since that Monday Night shellacking of New England. Last week’s win at San Diego didn’t hurt either. Kansas City is now rated as a clear playoff caliber team rather than a question mark. Note that if the Chiefs get pushed past -7 to -7.5, they will become a popular choice in two-team teasers too.
SEATTLE AT CAROLINA: Seattle opened at -3.5, and has been bet up to -5. This is obviously a huge bounce back spot for the Seahawks off back-to-back losses. Plus, sharps entered the season skeptical about Carolina, and have really soured on this defense in recent weeks. Seattle hasn’t taken much of a hit in Wise Guy Power Ratings because the talent is still there. Sharps will regret not docking them if the team keeps losing. Seattle is 2-4 ATS at the end of regulation enduring their Super Bowl hangover.
BUFFALO AT NY JETS: An opener of NYJ -2.5 has moved to a solid three through the week. Sharps who wanted the Jets because of the percentage power of the key number got in immediately. There wasn’t enough of a buyback initially to create a tug-of-war between Jets -2.5 and Buffalo +3. Sources tell us more sharps prefer Buffalo at the three…and may come in heavily on game day to see if they can drop the number to +2.5 to set up two-team teaser possibilities on Buffalo +8.5.
MIAMI AT JACKSONVILLE: Miami opened at -4.5, and has been bet up to -6. That may not be as dramatic a move as it first looks because the five isn’t a very important number in football betting. But, it’s telling that Jacksonville money didn’t come in at the six. In fact, some stores are testing Miami -6.5 to see if that brings in some balancing Jaguars action. We hear sharps like what they’re seeing from the Dolphins the past few weeks. Miami blew out Oakland, lost to Green Bay in the final seconds, then controlled the Chicago game on the road last week. That’s another team improving in recent Wise Guy Power Ratings.
HOUSTON AT TENNESSEE: This line moved from Houston -1 to Houston -3 on the news that rookie Zach Mettenberger would get the start for the Titans. He’s an unknown quantity at this level. This is not likely to be a heavily bet game from sharps or squares until everyone sees Mettenberger in action. Maybe the Wise Guys will express a sentiment in the hours before kickoff. There are no rumblings of anything imminent as of press time. Note that the Over/Under dropped from 43.5 to 42 on the same news.
BALTIMORE AT CINCINNATI: The Bengals are dealing with a slew of injuries. That plus recent disappointments while playing shorthanded have soured the sharps on their current form. An opener of Cincinnati -2.5 has been bet all the way to Baltimore -1. The Ravens were -1 back when these teams played each other in the season opener…in Baltimore! You would expect a move of about 5-6 points in a site switch…so there’s been a dramatic change in perception for these two teams since early September. Baltimore is on the list of rising teams. Shorthanded Cincinnati isn’t seen as playoff caliber, coming off a combined 70-17 loss to New England and Indianapolis, plus the five-quarter tie against fading Carolina. It’s the Ravens who are Power Rated as the best team in the AFC North at the moment.
PHILADELPHIA AT ARIZONA: This game has been sitting on Arizona -2.5 all week. Right away you know that the sharps don’t like the hosts, or they would have pushed the game to three immediately in advance of typical public action on home favorites. No position-takers! That tells you that sharps would pound the Eagles if the number came up, and will likely be pounding the Eagles in two-team teasers at +8.5. This one will likely stay on the 2.5 unless the public creates a tug-of-war on game day with support for the cheap home favorite. Arizona’s not a “national” team yet, so that’s probably not likely.
INDIANAPOLIS AT PITTSBURGH: A fairly solid three all week, with Indianapolis priced as a road favorite. Sentiment is heavily their way though, and some stores are testing Indy at -3.5 to see if that generates interest in the Steelers. Normally Wise Guys would fade a move off the key number. But, Indy is in very good form right now, while Pittsburgh manages to look bad even when they win and cover. We’ll have to see if game day brings a tug-of-war around the key number. For now, the sharps who like Indy are in at the field goal. It’s a bit of mystery how much interest sharps would have in the inconsistent Steelers at better prices.
OAKLAND AT CLEVELAND: Looks like a tug-of-war shaping up between Cleveland -6.5 and Oakland +7. Those playing Cleveland in the bounce-back spot against the inconsistent Raiders are pretty sure -6.5 is the best they’re going to see. Old school sharps…those most likely to think Cleveland shouldn’t be favored by that much over anybody (possibly proven true in the loss last week to Jacksonville!)…are coming in on the Raiders at the full seven. The public generally comes in on home favorites in the late TV window, but Oakland does have a “locals” betting presence in Nevada because of geographic proximity. The tug-of-war could continue until kickoff unless one or two syndicates make major moves on game day.
GREEN BAY AT NEW ORLEANS (Sunday Night): An opener of New Orleans -2 has been bet down to -1.5. New Orleans is one of the teams that’s been sliding backward in Wise Guy Power Ratings. But, this team’s home history in the Brees era makes them tough to fade aggressively at such low prices. Note that Green Bay money is much more likely to come in on two-team teasers that cross both the 3 and the 7. This is likely to be a heavily bet game in Las Vegas because of entertainment value. Sharps may be waiting for that heavy public involvement before hitting the board aggressively themselves. We can assume the Wise Guys don’t love the Saints or they would have hit them at such a low number! Big early move on the Over, as the opening total of 54 has been bet up to 56. Sharps are expecting a high scoring shootout featuring star quarterbacks.
WASHINGTON AT DALLAS (Monday Night): The line jumped from the opener on reports that Colt McCoy was going to get the start for the Redskins. The early post of Dallas -7.5 is all the way up to -9.5, with some stores testing the full ten. The sharps aren’t fond of McCoy because of poor arm strength and the tendency to get rattled when under pressure. It may take more than +10 to get them involved. The opening total of 51 is down to 49 because Washington will either struggle to score, or will take their time grinding clock if they are able to move the ball.
