sorry about being so late to posted this
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH LINEMAKER NICK BOGDANOVICH[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]WHAT THE SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT THIS WEEKEND'S NFL GAMES[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Three games were played on Thanksgiving, but we still have a lucky 13 to discuss for Sunday and Monday. As always, games are presented in rotation order...[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]DENVER AT NY JETS: There was some early interest on the Jets at -7, as that line is sitting at 7.5 as I write this. As I've said in the past, whenever a line sits a half point over a critical number, the sharps like the favorite. If they liked the dog, the line would have been pounded back down to the critical number. There are some old school guys who are waiting to see how many points they can get with Denver...figuring the public will bet Brett Favre over the weekend. The public doesn't bet early...so that initial move was sharp money on the Jets. Nothing on the total yet. The totals guys always pay attention to the weather up North. The fact that games have gotten so high scoring lately has a few scratching their heads. Unders up North in late November and early December are far from automatic now based on some of the games you've been watching on TV. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]SAN FRANCISCO AT BUFFALO: There was early interest on the Underdog and the Under, as San Francisco +7 is down to +6.5 as I write this. The fact that it didn't go right back to seven tells you most sharps are looking for a close game. The total dropped from 44 to 42.5. Part of that is the influence of Mike Singletary. And, some guys will just bet late season Unders in Buffalo hoping to catch a weather break. They can always buy off it if they need to on game day. I'm surprised there's this much affection for the San Francisco defense. The attitude of the Niners impressed some guys in that Monday Night game in Arizona. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]NEW ORLEANS AT TAMPA BAY: Tampa Bay opened at 3.5, and the line stayed there for a few days. After Thanksgiving some money drove it up to -4. That tells you that the sharps REALLY like the favorite because love for the dog would have brought the line down immediately. New Orleans has a short week to get ready, and tends to be turnover prone on the road against good defenses. Throw in revenge, and a lot of the systems guys are naturally going to like the Bucs at a cheap price. Just remember that anything moving up on the high side of the three is a big deal. The total has dropped from 48 to 46.5. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]CAROLINA AT GREEN BAY: The total has dropped a bit from 43 to 42.5. We have another cold weather site late in the season. I'm not sure what's going to happen in these last few weeks with these. There are now media reports all over the place about how scoring has exploded, and about how slowly Las Vegas lines have reacted to the increase. Unders guys may wait to let the public bet Overs before acting. They may start betting Overs themselves out of the gate to set up positions. For now, this is an Under call from the sharps. Nothing yet on the team side, which has been sitting at Green Bay -3 all week. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]NY GIANTS AT WASHINGTON: This is one of those games that may flash between 3 and 3.5 all weekend. The Giants are the favorite, and have been getting bet. Some places are charging expensive juice (up to -135) at the field goal. Others have lifted the number up to 3.5 just to see a bunch of Washington money coming in. Nobody wants to get "sided" here, with the line landing right on three for a push/lose scenario for the books. It will be interesting to see what happens over the weekend. The public has been pounding the Giants for weeks with great success. Sportsbooks may have to come off the three once public money outdistances the sharps. The total has come down from 42 to 41. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]MIAMI AT ST. LOUIS: Not much interest in yet pending some personnel developments. The sharps don't want any part of St. Louis right now because they've been playing so badly. And, the old school guys who took flyers on the ugly dogs on Thanksgiving got spanked badly (as did sportsbooks because the public loves favorites!). It's hard to lay this number with somebody like Miami. That was true last week with Chicago on this field, and it was never a game. Right now, not much going on in this matchup. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]BALTIMORE AT CINCINNATI: Very quiet here as well. That's going to be common in these games with sizable road favorites. Sharps have either given up on the ugly dogs for awhile, or are waiting to get even bigger numbers over the weekend. There's just no reason to bet a big ugly dog early in the week for the most part. Good numbers will be there later in the week for dog lovers...and there are fewer of those each week right now. Nothing on the total yet. If weather becomes an issue we'll see sharp Under bets Sunday morning. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]INDIANAPOLIS AT CLEVELAND: The line opened Indy -4, and is up to -4.5 or -5 as I write this. The Colts have been playing well lately, while Cleveland didn't look like they even cared in the Houston game last week. Considering the public is very likely to bet on Peyton Manning over the weekend...the opener was probably too low. The early money could be from people taking positions for later middles...or those who figure Indy should be laying around a TD like many of the other road favorites this week. The total has come down from 46 to 45. There's a theory out there that the sportsbooks lifted all of their totals last week because of the high scores...and sharps hit a lot of the Unders because everything seemed a point high. I'm not much of a totals guy, so I'm going to sit back and watch how that plays out. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]ATLANTA AT SAN DIEGO: The underdog has been getting some action here, as Atlanta is now +4 or +4.5 after opening at +5. It's a tough spot for the Falcons, having to travel back out to the West Coast after winning a huge divisional game. But, San Diego is in such a funk that the sharps just can't see them laying this many points. The Chargers faded down the stretch vs. the Colts, and were lucky to beat poor Kansas City on this field awhile back. Atlanta's certainly better than Kansas City, and isn't playing any worse than the Colts right now. I can see the move, but I'm aware of the travel situation. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]PITTSBURGH AT NEW ENGLAND: The books are hoping for a heavy action game here. They could really use a guaranteed profit in a game they won't have to sweat. Pittsburgh should get a lot of action at a cheap price. New England is becoming a favorite with the public again. Split action would be a welcome rarity right now. Nothing from the sharps yet. They don't trust Ben Roethlisberger on the road in big games. And, as much as they like what they're seeing with the Patriots, they may not be ready to lay points in a playoff style game with Matt Cassel. The Pats did lose to the Jets on this field not too long ago. The sharps will probably go anti-public once the public makes its preference known. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]KANSAS CITY AT OAKLAND: The total went up a tick. That's about the only news. How could you bet either side? Both teams have struggled much of the year. Yet, either one will jump up and bit you if you're not paying attention. Should the public move the game off Oakland -3, the sharps would definitely take whatever hook was available. This probably won't be a heavy action game for the public or the sharps come Sunday afternoon. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]CHICAGO AT MINNESOTA: This one WILL be a heavy action game because it's a Sunday Night TV matchup involving the Bears. People will have all day to bet it. It's another one that's sitting on a field goal. There's extra juice to lay the points with the home favorite. Places that have moved the line to 3.5 have seen Bears money come in quickly. A few of these the sportsbooks will have to sweat this week. And, a high action game like this is one that they definitely don't want to risk getting sided on. If you're not sure what I mean there....if the Minnesota money is at -3, and the Chicago money is at +3.5...a three-point win for the Vikings would mean part of the money pushes...and the rest wins. The books lose big because they don't win anything![/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]JACKSONVILLE AT HOUSTON: Great, another -3 in a TV game! Same story as with the others. Any move off the field goal is likely to bring in sharp money on the hook. Here we have another home favorite that's paying extra juice right now. The public is probably going to be on the favorite because Houston has been winning some games lately while Jacksonville continues to be a disappointment. Tough call for oddsmakers. If the game sits on the field goal, they'll be overexposed on one side. Move the number and risk getting sided when sharp money comes in on the dog. The total has come down from 49 to 48. I wouldn't be surprised to see the public bet it higher Monday afternoon. The public has cleaned up on Overs this year on Mondays, as they're 11-1 ATS.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH LINEMAKER NICK BOGDANOVICH[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]WHAT THE SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT THIS WEEKEND'S NFL GAMES[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Three games were played on Thanksgiving, but we still have a lucky 13 to discuss for Sunday and Monday. As always, games are presented in rotation order...[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]DENVER AT NY JETS: There was some early interest on the Jets at -7, as that line is sitting at 7.5 as I write this. As I've said in the past, whenever a line sits a half point over a critical number, the sharps like the favorite. If they liked the dog, the line would have been pounded back down to the critical number. There are some old school guys who are waiting to see how many points they can get with Denver...figuring the public will bet Brett Favre over the weekend. The public doesn't bet early...so that initial move was sharp money on the Jets. Nothing on the total yet. The totals guys always pay attention to the weather up North. The fact that games have gotten so high scoring lately has a few scratching their heads. Unders up North in late November and early December are far from automatic now based on some of the games you've been watching on TV. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]SAN FRANCISCO AT BUFFALO: There was early interest on the Underdog and the Under, as San Francisco +7 is down to +6.5 as I write this. The fact that it didn't go right back to seven tells you most sharps are looking for a close game. The total dropped from 44 to 42.5. Part of that is the influence of Mike Singletary. And, some guys will just bet late season Unders in Buffalo hoping to catch a weather break. They can always buy off it if they need to on game day. I'm surprised there's this much affection for the San Francisco defense. The attitude of the Niners impressed some guys in that Monday Night game in Arizona. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]NEW ORLEANS AT TAMPA BAY: Tampa Bay opened at 3.5, and the line stayed there for a few days. After Thanksgiving some money drove it up to -4. That tells you that the sharps REALLY like the favorite because love for the dog would have brought the line down immediately. New Orleans has a short week to get ready, and tends to be turnover prone on the road against good defenses. Throw in revenge, and a lot of the systems guys are naturally going to like the Bucs at a cheap price. Just remember that anything moving up on the high side of the three is a big deal. The total has dropped from 48 to 46.5. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]CAROLINA AT GREEN BAY: The total has dropped a bit from 43 to 42.5. We have another cold weather site late in the season. I'm not sure what's going to happen in these last few weeks with these. There are now media reports all over the place about how scoring has exploded, and about how slowly Las Vegas lines have reacted to the increase. Unders guys may wait to let the public bet Overs before acting. They may start betting Overs themselves out of the gate to set up positions. For now, this is an Under call from the sharps. Nothing yet on the team side, which has been sitting at Green Bay -3 all week. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]NY GIANTS AT WASHINGTON: This is one of those games that may flash between 3 and 3.5 all weekend. The Giants are the favorite, and have been getting bet. Some places are charging expensive juice (up to -135) at the field goal. Others have lifted the number up to 3.5 just to see a bunch of Washington money coming in. Nobody wants to get "sided" here, with the line landing right on three for a push/lose scenario for the books. It will be interesting to see what happens over the weekend. The public has been pounding the Giants for weeks with great success. Sportsbooks may have to come off the three once public money outdistances the sharps. The total has come down from 42 to 41. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]MIAMI AT ST. LOUIS: Not much interest in yet pending some personnel developments. The sharps don't want any part of St. Louis right now because they've been playing so badly. And, the old school guys who took flyers on the ugly dogs on Thanksgiving got spanked badly (as did sportsbooks because the public loves favorites!). It's hard to lay this number with somebody like Miami. That was true last week with Chicago on this field, and it was never a game. Right now, not much going on in this matchup. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]BALTIMORE AT CINCINNATI: Very quiet here as well. That's going to be common in these games with sizable road favorites. Sharps have either given up on the ugly dogs for awhile, or are waiting to get even bigger numbers over the weekend. There's just no reason to bet a big ugly dog early in the week for the most part. Good numbers will be there later in the week for dog lovers...and there are fewer of those each week right now. Nothing on the total yet. If weather becomes an issue we'll see sharp Under bets Sunday morning. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]INDIANAPOLIS AT CLEVELAND: The line opened Indy -4, and is up to -4.5 or -5 as I write this. The Colts have been playing well lately, while Cleveland didn't look like they even cared in the Houston game last week. Considering the public is very likely to bet on Peyton Manning over the weekend...the opener was probably too low. The early money could be from people taking positions for later middles...or those who figure Indy should be laying around a TD like many of the other road favorites this week. The total has come down from 46 to 45. There's a theory out there that the sportsbooks lifted all of their totals last week because of the high scores...and sharps hit a lot of the Unders because everything seemed a point high. I'm not much of a totals guy, so I'm going to sit back and watch how that plays out. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]ATLANTA AT SAN DIEGO: The underdog has been getting some action here, as Atlanta is now +4 or +4.5 after opening at +5. It's a tough spot for the Falcons, having to travel back out to the West Coast after winning a huge divisional game. But, San Diego is in such a funk that the sharps just can't see them laying this many points. The Chargers faded down the stretch vs. the Colts, and were lucky to beat poor Kansas City on this field awhile back. Atlanta's certainly better than Kansas City, and isn't playing any worse than the Colts right now. I can see the move, but I'm aware of the travel situation. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]PITTSBURGH AT NEW ENGLAND: The books are hoping for a heavy action game here. They could really use a guaranteed profit in a game they won't have to sweat. Pittsburgh should get a lot of action at a cheap price. New England is becoming a favorite with the public again. Split action would be a welcome rarity right now. Nothing from the sharps yet. They don't trust Ben Roethlisberger on the road in big games. And, as much as they like what they're seeing with the Patriots, they may not be ready to lay points in a playoff style game with Matt Cassel. The Pats did lose to the Jets on this field not too long ago. The sharps will probably go anti-public once the public makes its preference known. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]KANSAS CITY AT OAKLAND: The total went up a tick. That's about the only news. How could you bet either side? Both teams have struggled much of the year. Yet, either one will jump up and bit you if you're not paying attention. Should the public move the game off Oakland -3, the sharps would definitely take whatever hook was available. This probably won't be a heavy action game for the public or the sharps come Sunday afternoon. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]CHICAGO AT MINNESOTA: This one WILL be a heavy action game because it's a Sunday Night TV matchup involving the Bears. People will have all day to bet it. It's another one that's sitting on a field goal. There's extra juice to lay the points with the home favorite. Places that have moved the line to 3.5 have seen Bears money come in quickly. A few of these the sportsbooks will have to sweat this week. And, a high action game like this is one that they definitely don't want to risk getting sided on. If you're not sure what I mean there....if the Minnesota money is at -3, and the Chicago money is at +3.5...a three-point win for the Vikings would mean part of the money pushes...and the rest wins. The books lose big because they don't win anything![/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]JACKSONVILLE AT HOUSTON: Great, another -3 in a TV game! Same story as with the others. Any move off the field goal is likely to bring in sharp money on the hook. Here we have another home favorite that's paying extra juice right now. The public is probably going to be on the favorite because Houston has been winning some games lately while Jacksonville continues to be a disappointment. Tough call for oddsmakers. If the game sits on the field goal, they'll be overexposed on one side. Move the number and risk getting sided when sharp money comes in on the dog. The total has come down from 49 to 48. I wouldn't be surprised to see the public bet it higher Monday afternoon. The public has cleaned up on Overs this year on Mondays, as they're 11-1 ATS.[/FONT]
ope:
