Exbookie Want To Help The Player Week 5

[ACE-ACE]

The truth in examining games is the detail.....anyonewho expects to be successful had better learn to read between the lines to determine how or why teams are winning or losing....

one capper may say that turnover are the most important stat. others home field......passing.....running....ect...

BUT ONE FACTOR USUALLY DONT TELL THE STORY....

anybetter who wants to take advantage of edges will have to learn to read between the lines

other factors can infuence a team's performance....injuries, weather and coaching ......emotion too....

so remember....sometimes stats can lie. stats are a good starting point,but successful betters DIG DEEP.....

Expanding your thinking helps you get better in life......

and at the betting window.......

I have made a comp program that find the line of a game.....most the games are right on.......(1-2 point + or -)

ITS base on:

turnovers,penalties,total time,bookies line( how many over or under)

a bit on how it works:

last week pitt beat cin by 11 points......
the line was pit -4
that would be +7 for pitt and -7 for cinn....I do this eash week

the program kick in with good number after week 4.....

I find it works good between week 4-10.....

after that the line are .....TIGHT....


SO.............

ONLY ONE GAME THE PROGRAM PICK....(IT PICKS ALL THE GAME ....BUT THIS GAME THE LINE IS OFF 9 1/2 POINTS

NYG + 3 1/2......

TURN OVER 3-6 = NYG
TIME 6-1 = NYG
PENALTIES 168 VS279= NYJ

THAT JUST 3 OF THE 12 i USE

PROGRAM SAID: NYG -6.....


MY BET IS NYG +3 1/2 FOR $3000.00

MY RECORD FOR THE YEAR IS 8-4 +$7525.00



MORE TO COME.....

 

[rparker]

I enjoy your posts.........Only problem is.. your program does not factor in the coach...Parcells with a extra week to prepare, is money in the bank.....


gl, on the rest of your plays

 

[MARTEL910]

I like it ACE-ACE, no matter who wins its gonna be decided by a field goal....

 

[jwblue]

I was leaning towards the G-men. Thanks for confirming my thoughts on the game.

IS

 

[thecruncher]

Looking at the number when first posted I liked the 3.5 for the Giants. I also have a spreadsheet program I've designed that uses many, many factors, but not Time of Possession. I log TOP with the stats, but I'm not sure how useful it is, as some teams score quickly and win with less than half of the TOP. Anyway, my spreadsheet gave me a number of Cowboys -5, and as my computer doesn't shade favorites like a book would, I'm laying off of the Giants.

Could you explain why you think TOP is a strong factor?

 

[ACE-ACE]

THE TWO TOP ARE.....TURNOVER.....NYG GET 1 FOR THAT AND
PENALTIES NYG GET 1 1/2 POINT FOR THAT.....THERE ARE 9 MORE ...PLUS YOUR GUT FEELING....


BUT DONT FORGET THE BOOKIES LINE

NYG WEEK ONE LINE + 9 LOSE BY 14.....OFF BY -5
WEEK 2 LINE + 3 WON BY 16.....OFF BY +19
WEEK 3 LINE -3 1/2 WON BY 17.. OFF BY +14
WEEK 4 LINE + 7 WON BY 7....... OFF BY +14
ADD THIS UP ...+42

DALLAS IS A +4.........THIS MEANS THAT THE BOOKIE HAVE THE LINE RIGHT OR CLOSE ON DALLAS.....BUT CANT GET THE LINE RIGHT ON NYG..........

THIS IS A BIG FACTER.....ONE YOU CAN NOT TURN YOUR BACK ON........

 

[Moves]

What kind of stupid theory is that????
Why dont you also take into account the temperature, grass or turf, dome or outdoors?

THE BOTTOM LINE IS FOOTBALL IS ABOUT MATCHUPS NOT ALL THAT OTHER CRAP. ITS OFFENSE VS DEFENSE. LOOKING FOR ADVANTAGES WITH YOUR PERSONNEL.

ALL OF THAT BOOKIE CRAP IS MEANINGLESS IN THE OUTCOME OF THE GAME.

 

[truthteller]

Sorry Ace but I think Cowboys win this one. I took Dallas at -3 (buy 1/2).

 

[fosho]

So you think the G men will win straight up. Would you play the ML?

 

[tatehill2000]

good luck,,,

tater

 

[ACE-ACE]

What kind of stupid theory is that????
Why dont you also take into account the temperature, grass or turf, dome or outdoors?

THE BOTTOM LINE IS FOOTBALL IS ABOUT MATCHUPS NOT ALL THAT OTHER CRAP. ITS OFFENSE VS DEFENSE. LOOKING FOR ADVANTAGES WITH YOUR PERSONNEL.

ALL OF THAT BOOKIE CRAP IS MEANINGLESS IN THE OUTCOME OF THE GAME.

the bookie line makes the game even......that why the point are there.....
its are job to find the right side.......its just one of many part.....like home vs away......grass vs turf ....dome vs outdoor.....pass vs running and I can think of 40 more.....:think:

 

[ACE-ACE]

So you think the G men will win straight up. Would you play the ML?

I think the nyg will win out right....but for my money its with the points


good luck....

 

[silver7]

If You Thnk!!

It`s ALL about talent & matchups, then you are either uninformed or about to lose your ass! Most likely both. There are countless variabes that affect a $$ win, not the least of which is the line & its moves. Also motivation. All you have to do is look @ yesterdays CFB to see many gms where talent alone was not enuff. Miss/SC, Tenn/Ga, NC/NCSt to name just a few. Like NYG, Det, & Hous., will take the #? on all of these.

 

[ACE-ACE]

silver......all Im saying is the line make the game even.......lets take nyg game

nyg is +3 1/2......I see the game as nyg - 6 or 7.......its base on passing ,running,time,turn over ,penalties,talent and matchups......
get it..................

 

[ACE-ACE]

nyj - 6 1/2 for $ 1000...
sea -6 1/2 for $ 1000...

two more bets......

nyj 64 yd of penalties vs 237 = nyj
turn over 2 vs 5 = nyj
only two turnover and 64 yd of penalties in 3 game.....the best in the nfc and the afc.....

sett only 3 turnover vs 7 (arz)
penalties:123 vs 213...

sett have the top -ranked defense for the 5th time in team hisory....

one more big play to come still thinking about the amount...

 

[themanowesme]

What kind of stupid theory is that????
Why dont you also take into account the temperature, grass or turf, dome or outdoors?

THE BOTTOM LINE IS FOOTBALL IS ABOUT MATCHUPS NOT ALL THAT OTHER CRAP. ITS OFFENSE VS DEFENSE. LOOKING FOR ADVANTAGES WITH YOUR PERSONNEL.

ALL OF THAT BOOKIE CRAP IS MEANINGLESS IN THE OUTCOME OF THE GAME.

Hey Ghost poster whoever you are, STFU :finger: Ace is posting a theory on how he plays his games, if you dont like it again STFU. If you arent a ghost and this is your 4th post on here then go to hell, your going to be useless on this site. Make a pick yourself you ball less wonder or once again STFU!!!!!!!

 

[CAV]

Keep up the good work ace!

I enjoy reading your columns. As for "moves" its just information. Process it as you will, but don't slam the messinger.

 

[fivedoorsdown]

if it really matters to anyone
teams off a bye week are 48-49-2
last year was the best year 17-14

 

[ACE-ACE]

it is what it is.....thank (themanowesme & cav)

 

[Moves]

Bite me......I will watch him lose on his theory with the Giants today.