Exbookie Afl Picks Week 4

[ACE-ACE]

RECORD 7-7 -$60.00 FOR THE YEAR

HOME TEAMS VS LINE IS 14 WINS
AWAY TEAMS VS LINE IS 10 WINS

DOG HAVE WON 10....FAV WON 14

POINTS THAT MATTER 24 GAMES 2 MATTER 8%
DOG WINNING STRIGHT-UP 8 OUT OF 24 33%
FAV HAVE WON 59% OF THE GAMES

FORGET ABOUT THE POINTS ....BET THE TEAM THAT GOING TO WIN...

OVER AND UNDER THIS YEAR
THE LINE LESS THAN 99 1/2 GOES OVER
10-4-2........................................................THAT'S 71%..........
THE LINE OVER 99 1/2 GOES UNDER
7-1.............................................................THAT'S 87%.........
IF YOU PLAY THIS THE 1ST 3 WEEKS....TOTAL 17-5-2 77%
HOW LONG CAN THIS GO ON!!!!!


THE LINE ............VS ......................MY LINE OVER & UNDER
ORL ........... 95 1/2...........................................98
CHI............94.5...............................................97
NY.............101 1/2...........................................97
GR..............101................................................90
ARI....TO COME
NO.............107................................................95
SJ..............102................................................102
GEO...........92.5............................................... 89

NOT TO FIGHT THAT 77%......

TWO OVER AND TWO UNDER THIS WEEK

MY BET IS ORL OVER 95 1/2 ....$800.00
................CHI OVER 94 1/2.....$800.00
................NY UNDER 101 1/2...$800.00
...............PHI UNDER 107.........$800.00

ORLANDO VS DALLAS....

THE LINE IS -6 1/2........MY LINE IS -9....A 2 1/2 POINT VALUE
THE LINE OFF ORL +26 VS DAL +1 =ORL
PENALTIES ORLANDO 146 YDS VS DAL 231YDS(THAT HIGHEST BY ANY TEAM IN PLT. YDS).......BIG EDGE ORL....
THE T/O GAME......ORL 5 VS DAL 10...=EDGE ORL

THIS IS NOT A TRAP GAME ....DALLAS WILL SELF-DESTRUCT WITH PENALTIES AND TURN OVERS....
I SEE THE SCORE AS ORLANDO 63 TO DALLAS 48....

THIS IS THE 1ST WEEK I HAVE "MY LINE WORKING"....THIS IS THE NO 2 PICK OFF THE WEEK...I HAVE ONE BETTER COMING!!!!

THIS WILL BE MY 1ST $1,000 BET OF THE AFL


MY BET IS ORL -6 1/2 $1,000.00


ACE

 

[AFLGuru]

First off, you make a great point, with one modification I'd like to make if you don't mind... Pick the team that's going to win, ASSUMING that the team is giving a TD or less. I said at the beginning of the year that anything under a TD may as well be considered a pick 'em.

Ace man, you don't know how bad I hope you show me up with the Orlando game... Trust me that I'll be pulling for you to make me look dumb, but the Preds are in a real bad spot with this game. They've also got the case of too many fullbacks with Marlon Moyer-Moore coming off of IR. The way the Preds fullbacks have been playing, no one can get cut, meaning a lineman gets cut, which is Orlando's trademark... carrying 8 lineman when everyone else carries 7... Historically when Orlando only carries these 7 lineman, they have a long game offensively, as they usually cut the guy posing as the 3rd center. Something bad usually happens. Orlando's also not going to cover everyone... They're due. It's either this week (@ Dallas) or next week (@ Chicago... a game in which I see Orlando coming out massively fired up over last year's debacles against the Rush).

Like the play in the Chicago game, despite the fact that ALL signs point to an under game. Columbus is going to score eventually, under the Orlando's not covering everyone theory.

However, I don't like the play in either of the other games, one under the same logic, and one because it's against me again... We've gotta stop this bullcrap being against each other Ace!!! Eh, it should work out fine for both of us at several points this season, though I had the feeling you'd be on the under in this game. Anyway, the New York game... New York is due for a MASSIVE over game... 0-2 O/U this season, and they're finally going to get me off of their backs this week. I figured they would go over, over, under to start the season... oh well... If this trend of mine continues though, you're screwed Ace... lol.

Just my two cents. Best of luck as always this week. Hope we both burn the man. Can't wait for this great last play of yours. Just hope I'm not on the opposite side of it.

--AFLGuru:toast:

 

[TheHawk]

Ace,

I'm confused.

You say you see Orlando winning 63-48, but earlier in the post you say you have the total at 98.

Is one of these a typo?

 

[AFLGuru]

Probably just a rough guesstimate... Anything over the 95.5 is good enough, so by just how many is irrelevent.

 

[TheHawk]

Guru,

I thought he was using a formula to generate his "my line". If so, then one would have to be wrong.

Also, the "how many" is not irrelevent at all. If ACE is really saying he has the game capped at 111, then that's some great value at 95.

 

[ACE-ACE]

First off, you make a great point, with one modification I'd like to make if you don't mind... Pick the team that's going to win, ASSUMING that the team is giving a TD or less.


However, I don't like the play in either of the other games, one under the same logic, and one because it's against me again... We've gotta stop this bullcrap being against each other Ace!!! Eh, it should work out fine for both of us at several points this season, though I had the feeling you'd be on the under in this game. Anyway, the New York game... New York is due for a MASSIVE over game... 0-2 O/U this season, and they're finally going to get me off of their backs this week. I figured they would go over, over, under to start the season... oh well... If this trend of mine continues though, you're screwed Ace... lol.

Just my two cents. Best of luck as always this week. Hope we both burn the man. Can't wait for this great last play of yours. Just hope I'm not on the opposite side of it.

--AFLGuru:toast:

AG....THE POINT DOES NOT MATTER ....BET THE GAME DONT THINK ABOUT THE POINT....I DID THIS IN THE NFL IT WAS 45 GAMES THE POINTS MATTER!!! 18 % OF THEM
IT JUST MAKE IT EASY ....NOT TO THINK ABOUT THE "LINE".....6%.....EVERY BODY SHOULD THINK MORE ABOUT IF THE QB HAS THE FLU...OR SOMETHING!!

IN THE NFL I ALWAY HAD TWO WAYS OF BETTING....UNDER $1300 AND OVER $2000 BET......THE UNDER IS FOR ACTION....THE OVER $2000 BET ARE FOR INVESTMENTS...
IT WOULD HAVE TO BE A GREAT EDGE WITH A LINE OFF AND YOU ALSO ON IT FOR ME TO BET OVER $2000 ON A GAME.....1ST YEAR AT IT(AFL)

BUT
I'M TRYING OUT "MY LINE" ON ALL THE GAMES THIS YEAR...AND I WILL BE TRUE TO IT.....WIN OR LOSE......EXP YEAR NUMBER 1..... BUT I ALSO HOPE TO SEE US ON THE SAME SIDE NOW AND THAN.....
I HAVE TO SAID YOU KNOW THE AFL BETTER THAN ANY ONE I HAVE SEEN...

BUT I HAVE LEARN YEAR AGO YOU CAN KNOW ALL THERE IS TO KNOW ABOUT A SPORT..... ITS THE BETTING LINE....THE MONEY MANAGEMENT....KNOW WHAT THE LINE MAKES KNOW.....HARD CORD BETTING....TRENDS...ECT..ECT

ALL THIS CAN MAKE YOU A WINNING YEAR.........THERE MANY ROAD TO TAKE TO GET YOU WHERE YOU WANT.....

I DONT LOOK AT IT AS YOU AGAINST ME.....WE ARE BOTH GOOD AT WHAT WE DO....


ACE

AG.....IF YOU ARE LUCKY ENOUGH TO DO WELL
IT'S YOUR RESPONSIBILITY TO SEND THE ELEVATOR BACK DOWN:toast:

 

[ACE-ACE]

Ace,

I'm confused.

You say you see Orlando winning 63-48, but earlier in the post you say you have the total at 98.

Is one of these a typo?

98 IS WHAT I WOULD OF MADE THE LINE AT....BASE ON STAT....T/O......PASSING....QB......TIME....PENALTIES....AND PAST OVER AND UNDER....AND ABOUT 6 MORE THING....

I SEE IT AS BEING HIGH THAN THAT(MORE ON HOW THE MATCH-UP BETWEEN THE TWO TEAM ARE)....EACH TEAM PLAYES DIFF WITH DIFF TEAMS....
ORL SHOULD WIN BY 2 OR MORE TD....

 

[AFLGuru]

"IT'S YOUR RESPONSIBILITY TO SEND THE ELEVATOR BACK DOWN:toast:"


Nice job Ace... great line. I don't typically look at it as "you against me." I look at it as a perfect middle opportunity for us both. I also look as it as that you might have taken over from the opening line but now that it's a ridiculous 8.5 points higher, that it has given you momentum the other way.

Best of luck as always.

--AFLGuru:toast:

 

[ACE-ACE]

Guru,

I thought he was using a formula to generate his "my line". If so, then one would have to be wrong.

Also, the "how many" is not irrelevent at all. If ACE is really saying he has the game capped at 111, then that's some great value at 95.

I USE IT IN THE NFL AND I ALWAY DO GOOD WITH IT.....SO I'M TRING IT HERE
PLUS
LINE THAT ARE UNDER 99 1/2 WITH THE BOOKIE

GOES OVER 10-4-2.......71%

 

[Roxygurl]

hi ace how are ya! well i see theres disagreement between you and guru on these games. its maddening isnt it? arena footballs tuff to win at consistently.seems the only game you agree on is san jose-8. ace im going to email you i need to ask you a professional question. catch ya soon. ~RG

 

[TampaLuke]

BUT I HAVE LEARN YEAR AGO YOU CAN KNOW ALL THERE IS TO KNOW ABOUT A SPORT..... ITS THE BETTING LINE....THE MONEY MANAGEMENT....KNOW WHAT THE LINE MAKES KNOW.....HARD CORD BETTING....TRENDS...ECT..ECT


Exactly

 

[ACE-ACE]

RECAP....

ORL OVER 95 1/2 ....$800.00......LOST
CHI OVER 94 1/2.....$800.00
NY UNDER 101 1/2...$800.00
PHI UNDER 107.........$800.00



ORL -6 1/2............... $1,000.00.....LOST

 

[ACE-ACE]

GRAND RAPIDS VS AUSTIN

AS AG SAID: GR IS WORKING INTO A NEW OFFENSIVE SYSTEM.......NOT GOOD FOR A HIGH SCORING GAME

1ST TWO WEEKS GRAND RAPIDS SCORE

IST HALF OF GAME (1) 13....2ND HALF 25
GAME (2 )..................23....2ND HALF 29

LOOKS LIKE A SLOW STARTING TEAM.....

AUSTIN THE SAME

AUSTIN AVG 18 POINTS 1ST HALF 25 POINTS THE 2ND HALF
G.R. AVG 18 POINTS 1STHALF 29 POINTS THE 2ND HALF

THE KEY WORD HERE IS SLOW STARTER...........


I HAVE PUT A SIDE $10,000 BANKROLL TO BET THE AFL MY 1ST YEAR.....
(LAST YEAR I MADE A LOT OF MONEY IN NFL.....STOCK...AND BLACKJACK)

FOR ALL THAT FOLLOW AFLGURU....KEEP FOLLOWING HIM ....HE KNOW A LOT ABOUT THE GAME...I'M A CAPPER... AND THIS IS MY 1ST YEAR ...IF I LOSS DONT FEEL BAD FOR ME.....I HAVE PUT THIS AMOUNT ASIDE AND THAT ALL THEY WILL GET.....
I POST MY PICK TO TRY TO MASTER THE GAME....FOR ALL TO SEE....

I SAID AT THE START THAT I WOULD NOT BET OVER $1,000 ON A GAME
(IN THE NFL I BET ACTION AND FOR FUN (UNDER $1300 BETS)....FOR INVESTMENTS I BET(OVER $2,000 BETS).....

THIS IS MY 1ST $2,000 BET


MY BET IS 1ST HALF UNDER 51 FOR $2,000.00


ACE

 

[AFLGuru]

Not a bad call Ace... best of luck

 

[LakersFan4Life]

gl to u ace hope u can master the game sounds like u have in the nfl gl on ur under i for one am pulling for you. :howdy:

 

[HOOTERGUY]

here's one for ya rampage - 1- B I G arty:

 

[AFLGuru]

Wow man... terrible breaks this week. Sorry to see all of this. You're a great capper dude. Keep up the good work.

 

[AFLGuru]

Man Ace, I know you've got me tomorrow. You're so due for a W it's not even funny. You've got me considering jumping aboard because I know you can't go 0-fer in a week. Too good of a capper for that.

Best of luck.

--AFLGuru