Euro 2012

[chriscol]

starting this off here with some general thoughts.

Group A: obviously the weakest and for sure an "under group".
i see russia definately is the best team. Although you cannot judge on friendlies, but seeing them beating italy you could see that they have their usual potential up fronnt with quick strikers and the group seemed to have fun playing together...russia is usually a very moody team, either they show up and they can beat everybody or they just lay down...have a feeling they show up and that should carry them at least through the group.
Greece: solid team: ON DEFENSE only ... sure bet for any unders and maybe on the hdc if you get more than a +0.5 line...they might be hard to beat by teams like Poland or czech without much firepower.
Czech: dont like them at all and cant see any potential here
poland: stronger of the home nations and definetely able to advance from this group on home ground.

Russia + Poland to advance ....lot's of unders...if you find an under on total group goals: dont think it will be more than 10

Group B: Tough group and the Dutch and Germany should and likely will advance. dark horse? Denmark, not Portugal
Not much to write about the two top team: they are simply good in every aspect of the game.
Portugal i dont like at all...they are Ronaldo (with a bit of Nani), but Germany is a bad draw for them to start with: Germany owns them and since Klinsmann's reign (with Loew as assistant) Germany figured out a way to completely shut down Ronaldo and therefore Portugal. You could actually see it as well when Bayern played Real in ECL with Schweinsteiger and Kroos taking care of business there in midfield.
Apart from that..just a one dimensional team...something to write in the books...yellow/red card bets for the Portugal/Dutch match: remember the World CUP!!!!
Denmark: always underestimated and as a typical north europe country tough to play...german and netherland might sqeeze out close wins, but it will be tough..But Denmark has a chance vs. Portugal.
Germany + Netherlands to advance: Portugal-Dutch: over booking whatever it is.

Group C:
Spain + Italy: end of story!
Spain will not win it..they are getting old and tired of success..they will make it from group, but likely have their down game in the KOs and loose..maybe on penalties or something.
Italy is dangerous...yes betting scandal..last time that happened? yes, right: before WC 2006 and it was the team against everybody else and they won the WC...even in loss to Russia they have shown me some new italy football which has much more potential up front (you could see it during qualifiers as well). Balotelli and Di Natale up front is one of the best you can get and we dont have to worry about their defense.
Ireland not good at all..craotia is tough to predict as always..probably struggle vs. Ireland and fight back against the bigger team, but i dont see that being enough...one thing alwys to have in mind..not only Ireland is an under team, Spain as well:their success was always based on strong defense, so i expect them being good for more unders than Italy.
Spain+ Italy to advance

Group D
Tough one for me: i dont like the French, but they seem to be better this time around and changed the team a lot..still they are french and you never know if they show up.
England is a mess...no coach, no team and rooney out for the first matches is a big blow..think they concentrating more on the OLYMPICS!!
Sweden, no clue, but similar to Denmark..only thing to put in the books: they like to play England!!
Ukraine: not good enough

Advance: France and Sweden, with Sweden beating England

Overall: ofcause i like Germany, the Dutch will be up there, Spain not and my dark horse (although it's only gray) it's Italy...big factor is that they will face group A inthe quarters...so very likely they should go to the semis if they make it out of the group and once you are in the semis and in the mid of the tourney Italy is always a nice bet to have in the mix.

Futures so far:

Germany to win @ 4.1
Italy to win @ 16
Total goals scored: Italy over 4.5 @ 1.80
Total goals scored: Greece under 3@ 1.80
Advance further: Italy over England @ 1.85


BOL to all

 

[nojuice9]

nice write-ups and best of luck.

 

[chriscol]

Saturday:

Netherlands- Denmark: over 4 yellow cards@ 2.24

dont get the line. first of all Skomina is known as a ref bringing his authority by stopping play for small things. Consistent on that, but not much flow of a game. Then looking at his recent big matches he is an over-ref:
this years champ-league season 7,5,6,7,4,8 yellow cards in 6 games+ two euro-league matches on 3 and 4 and in three EURO 2012 qualifiers he gave 6,4,5 yellows.
that's 11 matches with only one being below the number.
Apart from the ref we will see two physical teams with one supposed to be the dominant, which should lead to even more defending and tackles of the danish against quick dutch players. End of the day i see a phsical game anyway with the addition of an yellow happy ref.

 

[chriscol]

Netherland- Denmark: NEtherland -.5@ 1.80

yes, they should be the better team, but i expect a clse one as the Denmark will show tough defending. But with the line moving from hdc that have seen the Dutch at -1, i now like this line.

Germany- Portugal: Germany pk,-0.5 @ 1.90 and over 2,2.5 @ 1.85

recent history between the teams shows overs and germany winning. i go with the same trend here. Germany better in all aspects of the game and they know how to defend Ronaldo (see my overall write up on the top of page). in addition i heard that Nani is doubtful, which would limit Portugal to a one-man team.
for the total: that might end on 2 if Portugal fails to score, but i see more of a 2-1,3-1 game. Germany will definetely go for the win, maybe having the one defense laps that allows Port to get one.Portugal is not a team that can just sit back...if they try this Germany will caryy the score over themselves.

BOL to all

 

[chriscol]

Spain- Italy: Italy +0.5,+1 @ 1.90

i just expect a close game like the games yesterday with Italy having a good chance coming away with a draw

Special under 4 yellow card @ 1.90

Both teams well under the mark during qualification and Kassei also known for not getting unnecessary wild on booking. i also dont expect hot temper in this being an opening match and both hope to get their points in the other two matches if required.

 

[chriscol]

Croatia- Ireland: Ireland +0.5 @ 1.89 and under 2 @ 1.90

Croatia is not better than Ireland...Ireland very tough to beat as seen in the qualies. Croatia might actually look better against attacking superior opposition like italy or spain...today they will get frustrated.
Under is the obviuos choice here and th ebest play.

special: over 4 yellow card @ 1.96 !! 2 units!!
if you look at the qualis both teams with a very high tendency to get bookings. this combined with Kuipers as a very strict ref makes it a great bet for me.
also this is the most important match for both teams..if they want to go through it's winning today. it's almost an "early" elimination game that is usually bound to go over (especially with a hot tempered balcan-team).

BOL to all

 

[kidman232]

Croatia- Ireland: Ireland +0.5 @ 1.89 and under 2 @ 1.90

Croatia is not better than Ireland...Ireland very tough to beat as seen in the qualies. Croatia might actually look better against attacking superior opposition like italy or spain...today they will get frustrated.
Under is the obviuos choice here and th ebest play.

special: over 4 yellow card @ 1.96 !! 2 units!!
if you look at the qualis both teams with a very high tendency to get bookings. this combined with Kuipers as a very strict ref makes it a great bet for me.
also this is the most important match for both teams..if they want to go through it's winning today. it's almost an "early" elimination game that is usually bound to go over (especially with a hot tempered balcan-team).

BOL to all

lots of whistles, but no cards yet. whistles in the crowd seem to have players pausing