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Friday, October 29, 2004
Old logic doesn't apply
<HR width="100%" noShade SIZE=1>By Hank Goldberg
ESPN Insider
<LI>In-depth game breakdowns, simulations, fantasy projections
In this topsy-turvy season, more than one reliable handicapping tenet has been blown up. Home underdogs have always been a major consideration – like the first factor to look for when the line is released.
Just a year ago, only 39 percent of road favorites won straight up. NFC travelers who have been favored this year are 27-23.
Laying more than a touchdown home or away has been a ticket to bankruptcy in years past. That's not the case in the eyes of the oddsmakers this year, as last weekend offered 10 such situations.
Those favorites were 4-5-1 against the spread. In other words, the results are inconclusive. In Week 8, there are five TD or more numbers.<OFFER>
Philadelphia hosts Baltimore, giving the Ravens 8 points. Baltimore is without Jonathan Ogden, its star left tackle. He also missed the opener and his team put up just three points against Cleveland. The Eagles are 3-0 at home by an average of 19 points.
The Giants are getting 7 at Minnesota. Randy Moss will be back and Daunte Culpepper registers 3½ touchdowns per game. The Giants are now 3-13 following a bye. Was that what caused the turnovers last week against Detroit?
Denver is favored by 6½ over Atlanta, victims of a 56-point outbreak by Kansas City. The Broncos didn't fare much better as 7-point favorites at Cincinnati Monday, and came away embarrassed. The Falcons gave up eight rushing touchdowns to the Chiefs.
Seattle, zero for its last three, including a loss at Arizona in which Matt Hasselbeck tossed four picks, is giving 8 to Carolina. I will do what neither he nor the Panthers' Jake Delhomme is doing very well at – pass.
The Chargers are playing well, but suddenly they are 6-point favorites over the Raiders. And the Jets, 1-4 the last two seasons giving 6 or more at home, are 7-point favorites over Miami, which overcame being a 7-point dog last week in beating the Rams, 31-14.
The only dependable team with this kind of impost is Philadelphia. Other Early Picks:
Indianapolis -2 at K.C.
Miami +7 at N.Y. Jets
Friday, October 29, 2004
Old logic doesn't apply
<HR width="100%" noShade SIZE=1>By Hank Goldberg
ESPN Insider
<LI>In-depth game breakdowns, simulations, fantasy projections
In this topsy-turvy season, more than one reliable handicapping tenet has been blown up. Home underdogs have always been a major consideration – like the first factor to look for when the line is released.
Just a year ago, only 39 percent of road favorites won straight up. NFC travelers who have been favored this year are 27-23.
Laying more than a touchdown home or away has been a ticket to bankruptcy in years past. That's not the case in the eyes of the oddsmakers this year, as last weekend offered 10 such situations.
Those favorites were 4-5-1 against the spread. In other words, the results are inconclusive. In Week 8, there are five TD or more numbers.<OFFER>
Philadelphia hosts Baltimore, giving the Ravens 8 points. Baltimore is without Jonathan Ogden, its star left tackle. He also missed the opener and his team put up just three points against Cleveland. The Eagles are 3-0 at home by an average of 19 points.
The Giants are getting 7 at Minnesota. Randy Moss will be back and Daunte Culpepper registers 3½ touchdowns per game. The Giants are now 3-13 following a bye. Was that what caused the turnovers last week against Detroit?
Denver is favored by 6½ over Atlanta, victims of a 56-point outbreak by Kansas City. The Broncos didn't fare much better as 7-point favorites at Cincinnati Monday, and came away embarrassed. The Falcons gave up eight rushing touchdowns to the Chiefs.
Seattle, zero for its last three, including a loss at Arizona in which Matt Hasselbeck tossed four picks, is giving 8 to Carolina. I will do what neither he nor the Panthers' Jake Delhomme is doing very well at – pass.
The Chargers are playing well, but suddenly they are 6-point favorites over the Raiders. And the Jets, 1-4 the last two seasons giving 6 or more at home, are 7-point favorites over Miami, which overcame being a 7-point dog last week in beating the Rams, 31-14.
The only dependable team with this kind of impost is Philadelphia. Other Early Picks:
Indianapolis -2 at K.C.
Miami +7 at N.Y. Jets
