ESPN.com - NFL - Take 2: Ravens vs. Patriots Friday, November 26, 2004
Scouts Inc.
Tuesday, our scouts filed their advance advance scouting report on this
week's matchup between the Ravens and Patriots. Now they're back with a
second look.
For the second week in a row, the Patriots catch a break with their
opponents' top running back on the shelf. Ravens RB Jamal Lewis is not
expected to play against New England because of an ankle sprain he
suffered against Dallas last week. His absence is a crushing blow for a
unit that started to show signs of life last week and could really use his
bruising running style on the road against the Patriots this week. The
Ravens' entire philosophy is centered around Lewis' ability to carry a
heavy load on the ground, chew up the clock and put the defense in best
position to turn the tide in games.
With LOT Jonathan Ogden returning healthy last week, the Ravens once
again have the offensive line in place to wear an opponent out with a
serious reliance on the running game, but they no longer have the back to
do so with. Chester Taylor is a quality third down back but he's not big
or powerful enough to accomplish what the Ravens are looking for out of
their zone running scheme. Musa Smith has more of those qualities but he's
too impatient, inconsistent and inexperienced to rely on at this point.
Without Lewis, QB Kyle Boller will once again need to take on a
greater role in the offense. He seems to be seeing the field more clearly
and is doing a noticeably better job of making his reads during his drop
rather than waiting to get set. Boller is getting rid of the ball quicker
and got into a rhythm in the second half of last week's game when coach
Brian Billick opened it up and let his young quarterback take over.
Against a Patriots secondary that has been hobbled for weeks now and was
finally exploited for 353 yards in their win at Kansas City on Monday
Night, trying to get Boller into a rhythm with a lot of attempts early on
might not be such a bad idea.
The Ravens don't have much speed on the perimeter but neither does Kansas
City and it was able to find soft spots in New England's cover-2 zone. If
TE's Darnell Dinkins and Daniel Wilcox continue to improve on last week's
performance, the Ravens should have enough weapons to pick apart spots of
the Patriots' zone in this game. After doing most of their work against
Dallas' man-coverage scheme last week, though, it will be interesting to
see if Dinkins and Wilcox can transfer that production over against a zone
coverage scheme that requires less physical and more mental.
A big key for the Patriots will be the pressure they apply on Boller. The
second-year quarterback is a good athlete but he doesn't have a great
pocket presence and his tendency to hold onto the ball too long has played
a big role in him getting sacked 24 times this season. Against a cerebral
veteran like Peyton Manning, the Patriots will drop seven or eight and do
less pressuring. Head coach Bill Belichick and defensive coordinator Romeo
Crennel often times will go after young quarterbacks with more blitzes and
stunts than usual.
The versatility of the Patriots' blitz package is what could be a problem
for a young quarterback and an offensive line that lacks good overall
athleticism. Eleven different Patriot defenders have chipped in with at
least one of the team's 30 sacks this season. With blitzes coming from all
angles, Boller is likely to make some mistakes under pressure.
As the week has progressed the Ravens optimism has improved
regarding DC Chris McAlister's status. Early in the week McAlister was not
expected to play, which would have put the Ravens in an awful bind because
Deion Sanders is also questionable with a toe injury that has kept him out
of the past two games.
In that case, Corey Fuller would have started in McAlister's spot on the
left side, which would have made him a huge target for WR David Givens.
However, if McAlister does indeed play, the Patriots no longer have the
mismatches at wide receiver that they were hoping for with Deion Branch
back healthy opposite Givens and Troy Brown, David Patten and Bethel
Johnson providing depth.
The Patriots have to feel good about their ability to overcome what
was a below average rushing performance in Kansas City last week. The team
misses rookie TE Ben Watson, but Daniel Graham more than made up for his
absence with three catches for 83 yards. With so many injuries at wide
receiver in the first half of the season, the Patriots were forced to rely
more on RB Corey Dillon than ever anticipated. In fact, the only game
they've lost all season was the game Dillon didn't play against
Pittsburgh.
Outside of the season opener against the Colts, the Patriots haven't been
able to rely on their passing attack to win a football game like they did
last week when Brady completed 65 percent of his passes for 315 yards.
With Branch back and Graham contributing, Brady looked as comfortable as
he has been since last season's Super Bowl. Against a Ravens' defense that
ranks seventh in the NFL versus the run, Brady will more than likely need
to carry the offense again this Sunday.
Special Teams
The Ravens have been very solid in the kicking game with Dave Zastudil
41.4 yards per punt and PK Matt Stover hitting on 17-of-18 field goal
attempts. There isn't a huge difference between the two teams but New
England is simply more consistent in this facet.
PT Josh Miller has been a huge upgrade from a season ago with his 45.3
yards-per-attempt average and nobody in the NFL is hotter than PK Adam
Vinatieri, who has hit on 25-of-26 FGA's.
The Patriots return game has shown signs of life recently with Bethel
Johnson rounding into shape as the KOR and Kevin Faulk handling the PR
duties. However, B.J. Sams has brought more consistency and explosiveness
to the Ravens' return game than anyone the Patriots can boast of. Sams has
averaged 20.6 yards per kickoff return but he's been special on punt
returns, averaging 10.6 yards per attempt and two for scores. Miller's
hang time, distance and directional skills should allow the Patriots to
keep Sams under wraps.
Prediction: Patriots 19, Ravens 13
Scouts Inc.
Tuesday, our scouts filed their advance advance scouting report on this
week's matchup between the Ravens and Patriots. Now they're back with a
second look.
For the second week in a row, the Patriots catch a break with their
opponents' top running back on the shelf. Ravens RB Jamal Lewis is not
expected to play against New England because of an ankle sprain he
suffered against Dallas last week. His absence is a crushing blow for a
unit that started to show signs of life last week and could really use his
bruising running style on the road against the Patriots this week. The
Ravens' entire philosophy is centered around Lewis' ability to carry a
heavy load on the ground, chew up the clock and put the defense in best
position to turn the tide in games.
With LOT Jonathan Ogden returning healthy last week, the Ravens once
again have the offensive line in place to wear an opponent out with a
serious reliance on the running game, but they no longer have the back to
do so with. Chester Taylor is a quality third down back but he's not big
or powerful enough to accomplish what the Ravens are looking for out of
their zone running scheme. Musa Smith has more of those qualities but he's
too impatient, inconsistent and inexperienced to rely on at this point.
Without Lewis, QB Kyle Boller will once again need to take on a
greater role in the offense. He seems to be seeing the field more clearly
and is doing a noticeably better job of making his reads during his drop
rather than waiting to get set. Boller is getting rid of the ball quicker
and got into a rhythm in the second half of last week's game when coach
Brian Billick opened it up and let his young quarterback take over.
Against a Patriots secondary that has been hobbled for weeks now and was
finally exploited for 353 yards in their win at Kansas City on Monday
Night, trying to get Boller into a rhythm with a lot of attempts early on
might not be such a bad idea.
The Ravens don't have much speed on the perimeter but neither does Kansas
City and it was able to find soft spots in New England's cover-2 zone. If
TE's Darnell Dinkins and Daniel Wilcox continue to improve on last week's
performance, the Ravens should have enough weapons to pick apart spots of
the Patriots' zone in this game. After doing most of their work against
Dallas' man-coverage scheme last week, though, it will be interesting to
see if Dinkins and Wilcox can transfer that production over against a zone
coverage scheme that requires less physical and more mental.
A big key for the Patriots will be the pressure they apply on Boller. The
second-year quarterback is a good athlete but he doesn't have a great
pocket presence and his tendency to hold onto the ball too long has played
a big role in him getting sacked 24 times this season. Against a cerebral
veteran like Peyton Manning, the Patriots will drop seven or eight and do
less pressuring. Head coach Bill Belichick and defensive coordinator Romeo
Crennel often times will go after young quarterbacks with more blitzes and
stunts than usual.
The versatility of the Patriots' blitz package is what could be a problem
for a young quarterback and an offensive line that lacks good overall
athleticism. Eleven different Patriot defenders have chipped in with at
least one of the team's 30 sacks this season. With blitzes coming from all
angles, Boller is likely to make some mistakes under pressure.
As the week has progressed the Ravens optimism has improved
regarding DC Chris McAlister's status. Early in the week McAlister was not
expected to play, which would have put the Ravens in an awful bind because
Deion Sanders is also questionable with a toe injury that has kept him out
of the past two games.
In that case, Corey Fuller would have started in McAlister's spot on the
left side, which would have made him a huge target for WR David Givens.
However, if McAlister does indeed play, the Patriots no longer have the
mismatches at wide receiver that they were hoping for with Deion Branch
back healthy opposite Givens and Troy Brown, David Patten and Bethel
Johnson providing depth.
The Patriots have to feel good about their ability to overcome what
was a below average rushing performance in Kansas City last week. The team
misses rookie TE Ben Watson, but Daniel Graham more than made up for his
absence with three catches for 83 yards. With so many injuries at wide
receiver in the first half of the season, the Patriots were forced to rely
more on RB Corey Dillon than ever anticipated. In fact, the only game
they've lost all season was the game Dillon didn't play against
Pittsburgh.
Outside of the season opener against the Colts, the Patriots haven't been
able to rely on their passing attack to win a football game like they did
last week when Brady completed 65 percent of his passes for 315 yards.
With Branch back and Graham contributing, Brady looked as comfortable as
he has been since last season's Super Bowl. Against a Ravens' defense that
ranks seventh in the NFL versus the run, Brady will more than likely need
to carry the offense again this Sunday.
Special Teams
The Ravens have been very solid in the kicking game with Dave Zastudil
41.4 yards per punt and PK Matt Stover hitting on 17-of-18 field goal
attempts. There isn't a huge difference between the two teams but New
England is simply more consistent in this facet.
PT Josh Miller has been a huge upgrade from a season ago with his 45.3
yards-per-attempt average and nobody in the NFL is hotter than PK Adam
Vinatieri, who has hit on 25-of-26 FGA's.
The Patriots return game has shown signs of life recently with Bethel
Johnson rounding into shape as the KOR and Kevin Faulk handling the PR
duties. However, B.J. Sams has brought more consistency and explosiveness
to the Ravens' return game than anyone the Patriots can boast of. Sams has
averaged 20.6 yards per kickoff return but he's been special on punt
returns, averaging 10.6 yards per attempt and two for scores. Miller's
hang time, distance and directional skills should allow the Patriots to
keep Sams under wraps.
Prediction: Patriots 19, Ravens 13
