ESPN.com - NFL - Take 2: Raiders vs. Broncos Friday, November 26, 2004
Scouts Inc.
Tuesday, our scouts filed their advance advance scouting report on this
week's matchup between the Raiders and Broncos. Now they're back with a
second look.
Denver RB Reuben Droughns has to be licking his chops as he prepares for
the Raiders. Droughns had the second-best rushing performance of his
career (176 yards on 38 carries) on the road against the Raider defense in
Week 6, and the Raiders haven't done much to improve things since then.
The key is to stay patient against the Raider defense.
For starters, the Raiders don't have good depth in their front seven, so
if you continue to run at them and get 30-plus carries in a game, the unit
typically wilts in the second half. Secondly, the Raiders' defense simply
isn't a consistent tackling group. The more carries a back gets the
greater his odds are of breaking the long one. That was coach Mike
Shanahan's theory in the first meeting and it was San Diego's theory last
week when RB LaDainian Tomlinson had 37 carries. If the Broncos can get
Droughns upwards of 30 carries on Sunday they should win this game.
The Raiders' secondary will begin to take on a new look, as CB
Phillip Buchanon will be playing less in favor of second-year pro Nnamdi
Asomugha. Buchanon is a former first-round pick who is loaded with
athletic ability, but he hasn't come close to reaching his potential due
to inconsistent recognition skills and sloppy technique.
The team also will start to get SS Stuart Schweigert more playing time.
Schweigert isn't as physical versus the run as starter Marques Anderson,
but Schweigert has better instincts and ball skills. The plan is to get
Schweigert in for Anderson on more obvious passing downs, which would
allow both to stay fresh and would play to the strength of both players.
The Broncos are using a lot more two-back and two-tight end sets than they
are three-receiver sets because they simply lack the depth at wide
receiver to challenge opposing nickel and dime packages in coverage. As a
result, TEs Dwayne Carswell and Jeb Putzier have become much bigger
factors in the team's passing attack. With so much of the passing game
coming off of rollouts and play-action, QB Jake Plummer often finds
Carswell and Putzier with a step-or-two advantage on linebackers who have
taken false steps versus the play-fake.
The team no longer has the vertical presence down the middle that it once
had with Shannon Sharpe, but Carswell and Putzier are drawing enough
attention in the intermediate zones that WRs Rod Smith and Ashley Lelie
are subsequently finding more room to operate on the perimeter. Against a
Raiders secondary that will be playing younger and less experienced
players like Schweigert and Asomugha, taking some shots vertically to
Smith and Lelie off of the play-fake is undoubtedly on Shanahan's mind
this week.
The turnover battle is a big area to focus on in this game. The Broncos
have not done a good job of generating turnovers this season and, in all
reality, have been way below average the past few years. Last week,
however, their defense came up with three interceptions after New Orleans
was forced to throw on nearly every down in an attempt to get back in the
game.
One of the big reasons why the team made the trade for CB Champ Bailey was
to improve in this area and his interception last week was promising. The
Broncos were minus-seven in turnover differential heading into last week's
game but finished minus-three after a plus-four performance against the
Saints. If they can build on that momentum against a Raiders team that is
ranked 30th in the NFL with a minus-15 differential on the season, it
would be a huge boost for the stretch run.
LynchDenver SS John Lynch returned to action last week after missing a
game due to a stress fracture, and the plan is to continue to use him in a
rotation. Lynch will start at SS in the team's base package but will give
way to Nick Ferguson in the nickel and dime personnel groupings. That
should help to keep Lynch healthy and it really plays to the strength of
both players involved. Lynch should play a big role on first and second
down this week against Tyrone Wheatley and the Raiders' north-south
running attack. Then Lynch will be replaced by Ferguson, who provides the
pass defense with more speed and range down the middle on more obvious
passing downs.
It doesn't make any sense that Norv Turner, whose entire scheme revolves
around the power running game, has been aborting the run so easily this
season. The Raiders have gotten behind in some games, but Wheatley had
only 19 carries in a close win over Carolina and 12 in last week's close
game versus the Chargers. The Raiders haven't run for more than 100 yards
in the past six games. If Turner doesn't show more patience and dedication
to the ground game, it will be another six games before they break the
century mark.
Special Teams
The one area the Raiders hold an advantage in is special teams. Buchanon
has been reliable, averaging 6.6 yards per return, but his long is only 18
yards. He has flashed explosiveness in the past, and if he can rekindle
that magic with less playing time on defense the Raiders could be
downright scary on special teams. Doug Gabriel is averaging 21.8 yards per
kickoff return with a long of 68 yards.
PK Sebastian Janikowski is an impressive 16-of-18 on field goal attempts
and Shane Lechler leads the NFL with an average of 48 yards per punt. The
Raiders' punt cover team has been inconsistent, so it will be important
for Lechler to do a good job this week with his hang time and directional
punts against Denver's Rod Smith.
In all reality, Smith is solid and reliable but he doesn't provide a huge
home run threat, which is why we don't expect the Broncos to exploit the
Raiders' coverage woes. The Broncos haven't found the answer on kickoff
returns, but Roc Alexander does show promise and is averaging a
respectable 21.2 yards per attempt.
PK Jason Elam (17-of-19 on FGAs) has been his usual consistent self and
Micah Knorr has a solid punting average (42.6 yards per attempt), but the
team is struggling on kickoffs and Knorr has been inconsistent with his
directional skills.
Prediction: Broncos 26, Raiders 23
Scouts Inc.
Tuesday, our scouts filed their advance advance scouting report on this
week's matchup between the Raiders and Broncos. Now they're back with a
second look.
Denver RB Reuben Droughns has to be licking his chops as he prepares for
the Raiders. Droughns had the second-best rushing performance of his
career (176 yards on 38 carries) on the road against the Raider defense in
Week 6, and the Raiders haven't done much to improve things since then.
The key is to stay patient against the Raider defense.
For starters, the Raiders don't have good depth in their front seven, so
if you continue to run at them and get 30-plus carries in a game, the unit
typically wilts in the second half. Secondly, the Raiders' defense simply
isn't a consistent tackling group. The more carries a back gets the
greater his odds are of breaking the long one. That was coach Mike
Shanahan's theory in the first meeting and it was San Diego's theory last
week when RB LaDainian Tomlinson had 37 carries. If the Broncos can get
Droughns upwards of 30 carries on Sunday they should win this game.
The Raiders' secondary will begin to take on a new look, as CB
Phillip Buchanon will be playing less in favor of second-year pro Nnamdi
Asomugha. Buchanon is a former first-round pick who is loaded with
athletic ability, but he hasn't come close to reaching his potential due
to inconsistent recognition skills and sloppy technique.
The team also will start to get SS Stuart Schweigert more playing time.
Schweigert isn't as physical versus the run as starter Marques Anderson,
but Schweigert has better instincts and ball skills. The plan is to get
Schweigert in for Anderson on more obvious passing downs, which would
allow both to stay fresh and would play to the strength of both players.
The Broncos are using a lot more two-back and two-tight end sets than they
are three-receiver sets because they simply lack the depth at wide
receiver to challenge opposing nickel and dime packages in coverage. As a
result, TEs Dwayne Carswell and Jeb Putzier have become much bigger
factors in the team's passing attack. With so much of the passing game
coming off of rollouts and play-action, QB Jake Plummer often finds
Carswell and Putzier with a step-or-two advantage on linebackers who have
taken false steps versus the play-fake.
The team no longer has the vertical presence down the middle that it once
had with Shannon Sharpe, but Carswell and Putzier are drawing enough
attention in the intermediate zones that WRs Rod Smith and Ashley Lelie
are subsequently finding more room to operate on the perimeter. Against a
Raiders secondary that will be playing younger and less experienced
players like Schweigert and Asomugha, taking some shots vertically to
Smith and Lelie off of the play-fake is undoubtedly on Shanahan's mind
this week.
The turnover battle is a big area to focus on in this game. The Broncos
have not done a good job of generating turnovers this season and, in all
reality, have been way below average the past few years. Last week,
however, their defense came up with three interceptions after New Orleans
was forced to throw on nearly every down in an attempt to get back in the
game.
One of the big reasons why the team made the trade for CB Champ Bailey was
to improve in this area and his interception last week was promising. The
Broncos were minus-seven in turnover differential heading into last week's
game but finished minus-three after a plus-four performance against the
Saints. If they can build on that momentum against a Raiders team that is
ranked 30th in the NFL with a minus-15 differential on the season, it
would be a huge boost for the stretch run.
LynchDenver SS John Lynch returned to action last week after missing a
game due to a stress fracture, and the plan is to continue to use him in a
rotation. Lynch will start at SS in the team's base package but will give
way to Nick Ferguson in the nickel and dime personnel groupings. That
should help to keep Lynch healthy and it really plays to the strength of
both players involved. Lynch should play a big role on first and second
down this week against Tyrone Wheatley and the Raiders' north-south
running attack. Then Lynch will be replaced by Ferguson, who provides the
pass defense with more speed and range down the middle on more obvious
passing downs.
It doesn't make any sense that Norv Turner, whose entire scheme revolves
around the power running game, has been aborting the run so easily this
season. The Raiders have gotten behind in some games, but Wheatley had
only 19 carries in a close win over Carolina and 12 in last week's close
game versus the Chargers. The Raiders haven't run for more than 100 yards
in the past six games. If Turner doesn't show more patience and dedication
to the ground game, it will be another six games before they break the
century mark.
Special Teams
The one area the Raiders hold an advantage in is special teams. Buchanon
has been reliable, averaging 6.6 yards per return, but his long is only 18
yards. He has flashed explosiveness in the past, and if he can rekindle
that magic with less playing time on defense the Raiders could be
downright scary on special teams. Doug Gabriel is averaging 21.8 yards per
kickoff return with a long of 68 yards.
PK Sebastian Janikowski is an impressive 16-of-18 on field goal attempts
and Shane Lechler leads the NFL with an average of 48 yards per punt. The
Raiders' punt cover team has been inconsistent, so it will be important
for Lechler to do a good job this week with his hang time and directional
punts against Denver's Rod Smith.
In all reality, Smith is solid and reliable but he doesn't provide a huge
home run threat, which is why we don't expect the Broncos to exploit the
Raiders' coverage woes. The Broncos haven't found the answer on kickoff
returns, but Roc Alexander does show promise and is averaging a
respectable 21.2 yards per attempt.
PK Jason Elam (17-of-19 on FGAs) has been his usual consistent self and
Micah Knorr has a solid punting average (42.6 yards per attempt), but the
team is struggling on kickoffs and Knorr has been inconsistent with his
directional skills.
Prediction: Broncos 26, Raiders 23
