ESPN.com - NFL - Take 2: Jaguars vs. Colts Friday, October 22, 2004
Tuesday, our scouts filed their advance advance scouting report on this
week's matchup between the Jaguars and Colts. Now they're back with a
second look.
An interesting development to monitor in this game is the position
change that Greg Favors has made from OLB to DE. Favors is an undersized
end, but he has always had good pass rushing skills and has the initial
quickness, power, motor and athleticism to make up for it by avoiding
blocks.
Most importantly, Favors, who had a sack and two pass breakups in his
first action as the Jaguars' starting right defensive end last week
against the Chiefs, should help to provide a boost to a front four that
has been miserable when it comes to rushing the passer on its own. Against
a quarterback like Peyton Manning, who can dissect defenses that are
forced to leave underneath zones open because of blitzing linebackers,
Favors' pass-rush production will play a big key in the outcome of
Sunday's contest.
The Colts got all they could out of their three-receiver personnel package
in the first meeting between these two teams and it wouldn't be surprising
in the least bit if they went right back to it on Sunday. First off,
because the Jaguars must use double coverage on WR Marvin Harrison, they
can't afford to use a safety in man-coverage versus No. 3 WR Brandon
Stokley. As a result, the Jags were forced to play mostly nickel and dime
defenses against the Colts in the previous game, which made them a lot
smaller versus the run and gave them less men in the box to defend the run
or blitz Manning with.
Secondly, offensive coordinator Tom Moore recognized the mismatch between
Stokley and No. 3 CB Juran Bolden and exploited it by isolating that
matchup as much as possible. If the Jaguars don't adjust by playing more
zone coverage and by pressing Stokley more, it could result in another
productive afternoon for Stokley, who finished with eight receptions for
97 yards.
The Jaguars would like to play more man-to-man coverage, which would allow
them to blitz more and to become more aggressive with SS Donovin Darius,
but rookie Rashean Mathis still makes too many inexperienced mistakes to
take such a risk. Especially with Mathis matched up against Harrison this
week, expect the Jags to remain in a lot of soft cover-2 looks with Darius
and FS Deon Grant playing deep one-half responsibility. That should limit
big plays in the vertical passing game for Harrison, Reggie Wayne and
Stokley, but it provides Manning the opportunity to pick the Jags apart
underneath and it also limits what the Jags can do in terms of ganging up
on RB Edgerrin James with eight-man fronts.
LeftwichJaguars QB Byron Leftwich showed good poise and accuracy against
the Colts' cover-2 defensive scheme in the first meeting between these two
teams and he'll have to do the same in order to keep his team in Sunday's
game at Indianapolis. Leftwich is a streaky passer who can get hot like he
was in that first meeting, but he also can "lose the strike zone" from
time to time.
Against a "soft" zone coverage scheme like the one the Colts run in their
back seven, the key is for opposing quarterbacks to show a lot of patience
and discipline in order to hit the "soft spots" in the underneath zones.
Furthermore, CBs Nick Harper and David Bush have not been playing with
good consistency and have been missing too many tackles immediately after
receivers catch the ball. If Leftwich does a good job of hitting his
receivers in stride, Jimmy Smith, Reggie Williams, Troy Edwards and Cortez
Hankton could provide a lot of yards after the catch.
The other big key to Jacksonville's success on Sunday is going to be its
discipline to and production from the running game. RB Fred Taylor had
only 68 rushing yards on 21 carries in the first meeting and the Jaguars
know that they need Taylor to be more of a workhorse in this game in order
to control the field position and time of possession battles that will
help keep Manning and company on the sideline.
The Colts have given up only 91.8 yards per game on the ground so far this
season, but that statistic is deceiving, as the team has gotten out to a
couple big leads in its first five games that have forced opponents to
abort the run. The Colts lack ideal size up front and at both outside
linebacker positions with David Thornton (230 pounds) and Cato June (227
pounds). They can pursue from sideline-to-sideline with the best of them,
but if the Jaguars can establish a solid north-south power running attack
with Taylor early on they should be able to wear that unit down as the
game progresses.
Special Teams
If this game comes down to special teams, the Colts should win it. From
top-to-bottom, the Colts are impressive from a personnel, scheme and
statistical basis on special teams. After missing a potential game-tying
field goal attempt in the opener against New England, PK Mike Vanderjagt
has connected on three in a row. PT Hunter Smith is having another solid
season with an average of 46.7 yards per attempt with six of his 15
attempts landing inside the opponents' 20-yard line. Furthermore, the
Colts are much improved on special teams, where they are averaging 23.3
yards per kickoff and 7.7 yards per punt return.
The Jaguars actually have the advantage in the punt return game, where
Jermaine Lewis is averaging 11.3 yards per attempt, but the Colts have the
edge everywhere else. Lewis hasn't been nearly as effective on kickoff
returns, as he is averaging just 18.1 yards per attempt. PK Josh Scobee is
5-of-7 on FGAs this season and isn't nearly as reliable as Vanderjagt. PT
Chris Hanson is averaging a solid 42.9 yards per punt but he isn't as good
of a directional kicker as Smith.
Prediction: Colts 30, Jaguars 23
Tuesday, our scouts filed their advance advance scouting report on this
week's matchup between the Jaguars and Colts. Now they're back with a
second look.
An interesting development to monitor in this game is the position
change that Greg Favors has made from OLB to DE. Favors is an undersized
end, but he has always had good pass rushing skills and has the initial
quickness, power, motor and athleticism to make up for it by avoiding
blocks.
Most importantly, Favors, who had a sack and two pass breakups in his
first action as the Jaguars' starting right defensive end last week
against the Chiefs, should help to provide a boost to a front four that
has been miserable when it comes to rushing the passer on its own. Against
a quarterback like Peyton Manning, who can dissect defenses that are
forced to leave underneath zones open because of blitzing linebackers,
Favors' pass-rush production will play a big key in the outcome of
Sunday's contest.
The Colts got all they could out of their three-receiver personnel package
in the first meeting between these two teams and it wouldn't be surprising
in the least bit if they went right back to it on Sunday. First off,
because the Jaguars must use double coverage on WR Marvin Harrison, they
can't afford to use a safety in man-coverage versus No. 3 WR Brandon
Stokley. As a result, the Jags were forced to play mostly nickel and dime
defenses against the Colts in the previous game, which made them a lot
smaller versus the run and gave them less men in the box to defend the run
or blitz Manning with.
Secondly, offensive coordinator Tom Moore recognized the mismatch between
Stokley and No. 3 CB Juran Bolden and exploited it by isolating that
matchup as much as possible. If the Jaguars don't adjust by playing more
zone coverage and by pressing Stokley more, it could result in another
productive afternoon for Stokley, who finished with eight receptions for
97 yards.
The Jaguars would like to play more man-to-man coverage, which would allow
them to blitz more and to become more aggressive with SS Donovin Darius,
but rookie Rashean Mathis still makes too many inexperienced mistakes to
take such a risk. Especially with Mathis matched up against Harrison this
week, expect the Jags to remain in a lot of soft cover-2 looks with Darius
and FS Deon Grant playing deep one-half responsibility. That should limit
big plays in the vertical passing game for Harrison, Reggie Wayne and
Stokley, but it provides Manning the opportunity to pick the Jags apart
underneath and it also limits what the Jags can do in terms of ganging up
on RB Edgerrin James with eight-man fronts.
LeftwichJaguars QB Byron Leftwich showed good poise and accuracy against
the Colts' cover-2 defensive scheme in the first meeting between these two
teams and he'll have to do the same in order to keep his team in Sunday's
game at Indianapolis. Leftwich is a streaky passer who can get hot like he
was in that first meeting, but he also can "lose the strike zone" from
time to time.
Against a "soft" zone coverage scheme like the one the Colts run in their
back seven, the key is for opposing quarterbacks to show a lot of patience
and discipline in order to hit the "soft spots" in the underneath zones.
Furthermore, CBs Nick Harper and David Bush have not been playing with
good consistency and have been missing too many tackles immediately after
receivers catch the ball. If Leftwich does a good job of hitting his
receivers in stride, Jimmy Smith, Reggie Williams, Troy Edwards and Cortez
Hankton could provide a lot of yards after the catch.
The other big key to Jacksonville's success on Sunday is going to be its
discipline to and production from the running game. RB Fred Taylor had
only 68 rushing yards on 21 carries in the first meeting and the Jaguars
know that they need Taylor to be more of a workhorse in this game in order
to control the field position and time of possession battles that will
help keep Manning and company on the sideline.
The Colts have given up only 91.8 yards per game on the ground so far this
season, but that statistic is deceiving, as the team has gotten out to a
couple big leads in its first five games that have forced opponents to
abort the run. The Colts lack ideal size up front and at both outside
linebacker positions with David Thornton (230 pounds) and Cato June (227
pounds). They can pursue from sideline-to-sideline with the best of them,
but if the Jaguars can establish a solid north-south power running attack
with Taylor early on they should be able to wear that unit down as the
game progresses.
Special Teams
If this game comes down to special teams, the Colts should win it. From
top-to-bottom, the Colts are impressive from a personnel, scheme and
statistical basis on special teams. After missing a potential game-tying
field goal attempt in the opener against New England, PK Mike Vanderjagt
has connected on three in a row. PT Hunter Smith is having another solid
season with an average of 46.7 yards per attempt with six of his 15
attempts landing inside the opponents' 20-yard line. Furthermore, the
Colts are much improved on special teams, where they are averaging 23.3
yards per kickoff and 7.7 yards per punt return.
The Jaguars actually have the advantage in the punt return game, where
Jermaine Lewis is averaging 11.3 yards per attempt, but the Colts have the
edge everywhere else. Lewis hasn't been nearly as effective on kickoff
returns, as he is averaging just 18.1 yards per attempt. PK Josh Scobee is
5-of-7 on FGAs this season and isn't nearly as reliable as Vanderjagt. PT
Chris Hanson is averaging a solid 42.9 yards per punt but he isn't as good
of a directional kicker as Smith.
Prediction: Colts 30, Jaguars 23
