ESPN.com - NFL - Take 2: Cowboys vs. Packers Friday, October 22, 2004
Tuesday, our scouts filed their advance advance scouting report on this
week's matchup between the Cowboys and Packers. Now they're back with a
second look.
The Packers' biggest weakness on defense is versus the run, but the
Cowboys simply lack the explosiveness and consistency at the running back
position to exploit it. Without DTs Grady Jackson (knee) and James Lee
(knee) in the lineup, the Packers have really struggled to hold their
ground versus the run. Not only do they miss the size that Jackson and Lee
provided when healthy, but the injuries have also created a depth issue
that has led to starters Cletidus Hunt and Cullen Jenkins wearing down too
quickly.
The unit played better in last week's win at Detroit, but that had a lot
to do with Detroit's lack of talent at running back combined with the fact
that the Packer offense put up 31 points in the first three quarters,
which led to Detroit aborting the run in comeback mode. Much like Detroit,
the Cowboys also lack the premier running back to fully make the Packers
pay for their inability to stop a strong running game right now. Coach
Bill Parcells will want to establish the run early with a heavy does of RB
Eddie George and FB Richie Anderson, but neither has the burst, cutback
ability or acceleration to make enough the type of impact that backs like
Tiki Barber (Giants) and Chris Brown (Titans) made against the
injury-hobbled Packer defense.
One reason why opponents are spreading the field against the
Packers is to isolate MLB Nick Barnett. Barnett is Green Bay's dime
linebacker – mostly by default – and he has struggled in that role so far
this season. He appears uncomfortable in space, lacks the necessary skills
to recognize draws and has had a hard time getting off blocks as a result
of being undersized. In addition, his positioning and depth in zone pass
drops has been inconsistent. Barnett has also become susceptible to
play-action fakes because of his impatience and an overall lack of
experience. The Cowboys will look to capitalize on this situation by using
more three- and four-receiver sets this week. With TE Jason Witten and FB
Anderson, the Cowboys also have the right personnel to go after Barnett
underneath in coverage.
Turnovers, sacks and penalties have been killing the Cowboys. They should
be able to move the football against the Packers in this game, but the
Cowboys must cut down on the mental mistakes that have been thwarting
drives all season long. Through the first five games of the season, Dallas
has a -5 turnover margin. With 42 penalties for 383 yards they are the
second most penalized team in the NFC. In addition, QB Vinny Testaverde
has been sacked 10 times for a combined loss of 73 yards. Although the
Lambeau mystique may be starting to wear off, the Packers will be
extremely tough to beat at home if Dallas fails to clean up its act.
The return of RB Najeh Davenport has helped to improve a struggling Green
Bay ground attack. Davenport, who missed three weeks nursing a hamstring
injury, is coming off a big game against Detroit and his presence has made
life much easier on starter Ahman Green. When healthy, Davenport will
spell Green anywhere from 5-10 carries per game and his downhill style is
a nice complement to an otherwise horizontal Packer running game. Green is
at his best attacking the perimeter and will try to stretch the Cowboys'
defense, but when Davenport comes on in relief, expect a more physical
approach between the tackles. Davenport is also a fine receiver out of the
backfield and the Packers like to get him involved in that facet on a lot
of swing patterns and screens.
NewmanCowboys defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer would like to get his
safeties more involved near the line of scrimmage, but with CB Terence
Newman continuing to struggle that hasn't been a sound approach. Heading
into the season, Zimmer planned on playing a lot of "cover-1" or
"man-free" schemes, using one safety to provide the right cornerback with
deep support while the other played in the box, serving as a fourth
linebacker.
However, Newman has not responded to the challenge that this defense
creates on the left side, getting beat too often in one-on-one situations.
As a result, Zimmer will occasionally have to give Newman safety help
against the Packers particularly when he and WR Javon Walker are matched
up. Walker, who is currently the only the player in the league to average
over 18.0 yards per catch on 30 or more receptions, would dominate this
matchup if Newman was forced to cover him without support.
Special Teams
The Cowboys' special teams play has been average at best. The team isn't
getting much out of the return game, as KOR ReShard Lee is averaging 21.3
yards per attempt and PR Dedric Ward is averaging 8.1 yards per attempt.
PK Billy Cundiff is 5-of-7 on field goal attempts and has been solid in
that regard, but he missed his only attempt over 50 yards and hasn't shown
great range. Rookie PT Mat McBriar has a huge leg but is struggling with
his consistency and is only averaging 40.2 yards per punt.
If this game comes down to special teams play, the Packers have a decided
advantage. For starters, they have great consistency in the kicking game
with veterans Bryan Barker (PT) and Ryan Longwell (PK). Barker is
averaging just 39.8 yards per punt but has shown good directional skills
and hang time, while Barker is 6-of-8 on FGAs this season. RS Antonio
Chatman also provides the team with more potential explosiveness in the
return game. He is averaging 22.2 yards per kickoff return with a long of
50 yards and 7.6 yards per punt return. While he hasn't taken one back for
a score yet, you get the sense that he's due to break one soon.
Prediction: Packers 26, Cowboys 20
Tuesday, our scouts filed their advance advance scouting report on this
week's matchup between the Cowboys and Packers. Now they're back with a
second look.
The Packers' biggest weakness on defense is versus the run, but the
Cowboys simply lack the explosiveness and consistency at the running back
position to exploit it. Without DTs Grady Jackson (knee) and James Lee
(knee) in the lineup, the Packers have really struggled to hold their
ground versus the run. Not only do they miss the size that Jackson and Lee
provided when healthy, but the injuries have also created a depth issue
that has led to starters Cletidus Hunt and Cullen Jenkins wearing down too
quickly.
The unit played better in last week's win at Detroit, but that had a lot
to do with Detroit's lack of talent at running back combined with the fact
that the Packer offense put up 31 points in the first three quarters,
which led to Detroit aborting the run in comeback mode. Much like Detroit,
the Cowboys also lack the premier running back to fully make the Packers
pay for their inability to stop a strong running game right now. Coach
Bill Parcells will want to establish the run early with a heavy does of RB
Eddie George and FB Richie Anderson, but neither has the burst, cutback
ability or acceleration to make enough the type of impact that backs like
Tiki Barber (Giants) and Chris Brown (Titans) made against the
injury-hobbled Packer defense.
One reason why opponents are spreading the field against the
Packers is to isolate MLB Nick Barnett. Barnett is Green Bay's dime
linebacker – mostly by default – and he has struggled in that role so far
this season. He appears uncomfortable in space, lacks the necessary skills
to recognize draws and has had a hard time getting off blocks as a result
of being undersized. In addition, his positioning and depth in zone pass
drops has been inconsistent. Barnett has also become susceptible to
play-action fakes because of his impatience and an overall lack of
experience. The Cowboys will look to capitalize on this situation by using
more three- and four-receiver sets this week. With TE Jason Witten and FB
Anderson, the Cowboys also have the right personnel to go after Barnett
underneath in coverage.
Turnovers, sacks and penalties have been killing the Cowboys. They should
be able to move the football against the Packers in this game, but the
Cowboys must cut down on the mental mistakes that have been thwarting
drives all season long. Through the first five games of the season, Dallas
has a -5 turnover margin. With 42 penalties for 383 yards they are the
second most penalized team in the NFC. In addition, QB Vinny Testaverde
has been sacked 10 times for a combined loss of 73 yards. Although the
Lambeau mystique may be starting to wear off, the Packers will be
extremely tough to beat at home if Dallas fails to clean up its act.
The return of RB Najeh Davenport has helped to improve a struggling Green
Bay ground attack. Davenport, who missed three weeks nursing a hamstring
injury, is coming off a big game against Detroit and his presence has made
life much easier on starter Ahman Green. When healthy, Davenport will
spell Green anywhere from 5-10 carries per game and his downhill style is
a nice complement to an otherwise horizontal Packer running game. Green is
at his best attacking the perimeter and will try to stretch the Cowboys'
defense, but when Davenport comes on in relief, expect a more physical
approach between the tackles. Davenport is also a fine receiver out of the
backfield and the Packers like to get him involved in that facet on a lot
of swing patterns and screens.
NewmanCowboys defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer would like to get his
safeties more involved near the line of scrimmage, but with CB Terence
Newman continuing to struggle that hasn't been a sound approach. Heading
into the season, Zimmer planned on playing a lot of "cover-1" or
"man-free" schemes, using one safety to provide the right cornerback with
deep support while the other played in the box, serving as a fourth
linebacker.
However, Newman has not responded to the challenge that this defense
creates on the left side, getting beat too often in one-on-one situations.
As a result, Zimmer will occasionally have to give Newman safety help
against the Packers particularly when he and WR Javon Walker are matched
up. Walker, who is currently the only the player in the league to average
over 18.0 yards per catch on 30 or more receptions, would dominate this
matchup if Newman was forced to cover him without support.
Special Teams
The Cowboys' special teams play has been average at best. The team isn't
getting much out of the return game, as KOR ReShard Lee is averaging 21.3
yards per attempt and PR Dedric Ward is averaging 8.1 yards per attempt.
PK Billy Cundiff is 5-of-7 on field goal attempts and has been solid in
that regard, but he missed his only attempt over 50 yards and hasn't shown
great range. Rookie PT Mat McBriar has a huge leg but is struggling with
his consistency and is only averaging 40.2 yards per punt.
If this game comes down to special teams play, the Packers have a decided
advantage. For starters, they have great consistency in the kicking game
with veterans Bryan Barker (PT) and Ryan Longwell (PK). Barker is
averaging just 39.8 yards per punt but has shown good directional skills
and hang time, while Barker is 6-of-8 on FGAs this season. RS Antonio
Chatman also provides the team with more potential explosiveness in the
return game. He is averaging 22.2 yards per kickoff return with a long of
50 yards and 7.6 yards per punt return. While he hasn't taken one back for
a score yet, you get the sense that he's due to break one soon.
Prediction: Packers 26, Cowboys 20
