ESPN.com - NFL - Take 2: Chargers vs. Panthers Friday, October 22, 2004
Tuesday, our scouts filed their advance advance scouting report on this
week's matchup between the Chargers and Panthers. Now they're back with a
second look.
Carolina RB Stephen Davis is listed as questionable and could miss this
game with the knee injury that forced him to miss three games earlier this
year. With DeShaun Foster out with a broken collarbone and Rod Smart out
with a knee injury, FB Brad Hoover would start at running back if Davis is
unavailable. Hoover runs with good power and will pick up yards after
contact, but he doesn't have the burst to consistently turn the corner. If
Hoover starts, San Diego can take advantage of this weakness by clogging
up the middle. It's also important to note that there is some concern that
Davis won't be able to finish the game or shoulder a heavy load if he does
start. As a result, expect Hoover to get plenty of carries even if Davis
is in the lineup.
The Chargers did well to sign WR Bobby Shaw and trade for Keenan
McCardell, as they will soften the blow of losing Reche Caldwell to a
season-ending knee injury. Shaw is expected to play this week, but he is
learning a new system and San Diego has received a two-week roster
exemption for McCardell. It doesn't help that Eric Parker is playing with
a sore neck and Tim Dwight has been slowed by a toe injury. RB LaDainian
Tomlinson can expect to see a steady diet of eight- and nine-man fronts
despite the fact that QB Drew Brees is playing well.
The Chargers are having DC Jamar Fletcher compete with Sammy Davis for the
starting job opposite Quentin Jammer. Davis has struggled mightily, but
San Diego would like for him to fend off Fletcher and remain the starter.
He has more natural talent than Fletcher, and there's no guarantee that
Fletcher will play any better, as he was beaten deep on Atlanta's
game-winning TD last week. Expect Carolina to attack whomever gets the
start.
With the Panthers' defensive line failing to provide consistent pressure,
defensive coordinator Mike Trgovac has blitzed in certain situations and
has brought FS Colin Branch off the edge at times. Branch has excellent
speed but timing is critical when a defensive back blitzes; he needs to do
a better job of anticipating the snap. Last week Branch blitzed from the
high point and Philadelphia QB Donovan McNabb had plenty of time exploit
the single-coverage the blitz created.
Trgovac doesn't want to leave his corners in man coverage, so he
frequently runs zone blitzes with a defensive lineman dropping back to
replace the blitzing linebacker in coverage. Zone blitzes can be very
effective when executed properly, but Carolina's defensive linemen aren't
getting deep enough when they drop into coverage, which creates a seam for
receivers to exploit. QB Drew Brees is putting good touch on his throws,
and if he can hit a receiver that gets behind the Panthers' linebackers
and stays in front of the secondary in-stride, the result should be some
big plays for the Chargers.
San Diego will line TE Justin Peelle up in the backfield when it goes to a
two-back pro style shotgun formation for two reasons. The first is Peelle
has better size than most backs. That bulk allows him to hold his ground
at the point of attack in pass protection, which helps give Brees enough
space to step into his throws. The second reason is Peelle rarely drops a
pass that he should catch. If he doesn't read blitz and no defender comes
into his area, Peelle can slide out into the flat giving Brees a reliable
safety valve underneath.
Carolina can line backup FB Nick Goings at receiver when it goes to its
four- and five-receiver sets. Goings doesn't have breakaway speed or the
elusiveness to make multiple defenders miss, but he runs with good power
and is capable of picking up yards after contact. The Chargers' secondary
must make sure to wrap Goings up at the legs, or he will be productive
after the catch.
Panthers QB Jake Delhomme clearly made some poor throws last week, but it
became evident that he had little time to go though his reads when we
broke down the film. The pass protection was so porous at times that the
receiver didn't have enough time to make the break in his route before
Delhomme had to release the ball. Carolina will use some max-protect
schemes that keep a back or tight end to help out. If the front five
doesn't improve its ability to handle pressure, Delhomme won't be able to
take advantage of a San Diego secondary that has given up some big plays.
Chargers FB Lorenzo Neal isn't a great receiver, but San Diego will use
him as a blocker on passing downs; he'lll release into a route if nothing
comes to him much like Peelle. The Panthers must be aware of Neal after
the catch. Neal is a true professional that will look to throw a block
after a receiver makes a reception and is capable of knocking linebackers
and defensive backs off their feet.
One of the reasons Brees' play has improved is his ability to read
defenses has improved, making him more confident in his throws. Trgovac
won't blitz Brees on every down, but he can help keep him off-balance by
bluffing and moving defenders around before the snap. The movement could
confuse Brees' pre-snap reads, resulting in stalled drives or possibly
interceptions. However, Carolina must make sure it gets set just before
the snap. If any defender gets caught out of position and Brees hands the
ball off, Tomlinson has the vision to exploit the mistake for a long gain.
Special Teams
San Diego rookie PK Nate Kaeding has connected on all eight of his
field-goal attempts, including three from beyond 40 yards. He also flashed
the ability to make the clutch kick under pressure when he hit a 28-yard
field goal on the road last week in a four-point game with just over six
minutes left.
Prediction: Chargers 24, Panthers 20
Tuesday, our scouts filed their advance advance scouting report on this
week's matchup between the Chargers and Panthers. Now they're back with a
second look.
Carolina RB Stephen Davis is listed as questionable and could miss this
game with the knee injury that forced him to miss three games earlier this
year. With DeShaun Foster out with a broken collarbone and Rod Smart out
with a knee injury, FB Brad Hoover would start at running back if Davis is
unavailable. Hoover runs with good power and will pick up yards after
contact, but he doesn't have the burst to consistently turn the corner. If
Hoover starts, San Diego can take advantage of this weakness by clogging
up the middle. It's also important to note that there is some concern that
Davis won't be able to finish the game or shoulder a heavy load if he does
start. As a result, expect Hoover to get plenty of carries even if Davis
is in the lineup.
The Chargers did well to sign WR Bobby Shaw and trade for Keenan
McCardell, as they will soften the blow of losing Reche Caldwell to a
season-ending knee injury. Shaw is expected to play this week, but he is
learning a new system and San Diego has received a two-week roster
exemption for McCardell. It doesn't help that Eric Parker is playing with
a sore neck and Tim Dwight has been slowed by a toe injury. RB LaDainian
Tomlinson can expect to see a steady diet of eight- and nine-man fronts
despite the fact that QB Drew Brees is playing well.
The Chargers are having DC Jamar Fletcher compete with Sammy Davis for the
starting job opposite Quentin Jammer. Davis has struggled mightily, but
San Diego would like for him to fend off Fletcher and remain the starter.
He has more natural talent than Fletcher, and there's no guarantee that
Fletcher will play any better, as he was beaten deep on Atlanta's
game-winning TD last week. Expect Carolina to attack whomever gets the
start.
With the Panthers' defensive line failing to provide consistent pressure,
defensive coordinator Mike Trgovac has blitzed in certain situations and
has brought FS Colin Branch off the edge at times. Branch has excellent
speed but timing is critical when a defensive back blitzes; he needs to do
a better job of anticipating the snap. Last week Branch blitzed from the
high point and Philadelphia QB Donovan McNabb had plenty of time exploit
the single-coverage the blitz created.
Trgovac doesn't want to leave his corners in man coverage, so he
frequently runs zone blitzes with a defensive lineman dropping back to
replace the blitzing linebacker in coverage. Zone blitzes can be very
effective when executed properly, but Carolina's defensive linemen aren't
getting deep enough when they drop into coverage, which creates a seam for
receivers to exploit. QB Drew Brees is putting good touch on his throws,
and if he can hit a receiver that gets behind the Panthers' linebackers
and stays in front of the secondary in-stride, the result should be some
big plays for the Chargers.
San Diego will line TE Justin Peelle up in the backfield when it goes to a
two-back pro style shotgun formation for two reasons. The first is Peelle
has better size than most backs. That bulk allows him to hold his ground
at the point of attack in pass protection, which helps give Brees enough
space to step into his throws. The second reason is Peelle rarely drops a
pass that he should catch. If he doesn't read blitz and no defender comes
into his area, Peelle can slide out into the flat giving Brees a reliable
safety valve underneath.
Carolina can line backup FB Nick Goings at receiver when it goes to its
four- and five-receiver sets. Goings doesn't have breakaway speed or the
elusiveness to make multiple defenders miss, but he runs with good power
and is capable of picking up yards after contact. The Chargers' secondary
must make sure to wrap Goings up at the legs, or he will be productive
after the catch.
Panthers QB Jake Delhomme clearly made some poor throws last week, but it
became evident that he had little time to go though his reads when we
broke down the film. The pass protection was so porous at times that the
receiver didn't have enough time to make the break in his route before
Delhomme had to release the ball. Carolina will use some max-protect
schemes that keep a back or tight end to help out. If the front five
doesn't improve its ability to handle pressure, Delhomme won't be able to
take advantage of a San Diego secondary that has given up some big plays.
Chargers FB Lorenzo Neal isn't a great receiver, but San Diego will use
him as a blocker on passing downs; he'lll release into a route if nothing
comes to him much like Peelle. The Panthers must be aware of Neal after
the catch. Neal is a true professional that will look to throw a block
after a receiver makes a reception and is capable of knocking linebackers
and defensive backs off their feet.
One of the reasons Brees' play has improved is his ability to read
defenses has improved, making him more confident in his throws. Trgovac
won't blitz Brees on every down, but he can help keep him off-balance by
bluffing and moving defenders around before the snap. The movement could
confuse Brees' pre-snap reads, resulting in stalled drives or possibly
interceptions. However, Carolina must make sure it gets set just before
the snap. If any defender gets caught out of position and Brees hands the
ball off, Tomlinson has the vision to exploit the mistake for a long gain.
Special Teams
San Diego rookie PK Nate Kaeding has connected on all eight of his
field-goal attempts, including three from beyond 40 yards. He also flashed
the ability to make the clutch kick under pressure when he hit a 28-yard
field goal on the road last week in a four-point game with just over six
minutes left.
Prediction: Chargers 24, Panthers 20
