ESPN.com - NFL - Take 2: Vikings vs. Colts Friday, November 5, 2004
Scouts Inc.
Tuesday, our scouts filed their advance advance scouting report on this
week's matchup between the Vikings and Colts. Now they're back with a
second look.
The Colts secondary is a mess right now. Rookie DS Bob Sanders will get
his first NFL start for Mike Doss, who re-aggravated his strained groin
last week. Sanders is a fast, tough and aggressive player with a lot of
upside as a versatile safety in this scheme but he was one of the last
rookies in the NFL to sign his contract and he has had very little time to
get reps and prepare. Sanders played well in his first extended period of
playing time last week, but there has to be concern about him getting out
of position and making rookie mistakes against QB Daunte Culpepper.
Making matters worse is that the Colts have had to play two rookies
extensively at cornerback. Jason David is the starter on the right side
and Von Hutchins has become the nickel starter. David is a tough
cornerback with good overall athleticism but he doesn't have great size or
speed, and he seems to be playing very tentatively recently. Because of
their inconsistency and inexperience in the secondary, the Colts haven't
been able to properly execute their cover-2 scheme, which relies heavily
on communication and trusting teammates to "get one another's back." The
result is a unit that has surrendered 26 completions of 20-or-more yards
in seven games. As a comparison, after the same amount of games last
season, the Colts had only surrendered 11 of 20 yards or more.
The other big problem that has plagued the Colts this season and will
continue to plague them on Sunday is their inability to get consistent
pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Outside of RDE Dwight Freeney, the
Colts have no true threats as pass rushers. In fact, the other three
starting defensive linemen on that unit -- DT's Montae Reagor and Josh
Williams, and LDE Raheem Brock, have combined for just two sacks on the
season. Most teams need to give Freeney double-team attention on almost
every passing down, but the Vikings should be in good shape with LOT
Bryant McKinnie handling Freeney one-on-one. The last time these two met
was in college, when McKinnie absolutely erased Freeney from the game with
his quick feet and imposing size. With all the time he needs to set up and
step into his throws in the pocket, Culpepper should be in good position
to spread the ball around the field to his multitude of different weapon.
The problem that the Vikings face is that with Randy Moss out and Marcus
Robinson hobbled with a foot injury, they simply lack the explosiveness to
fully exploit the Colts defense like the Chiefs did a week ago. The Colts
won't need to roll their coverage to Moss' side or keep a linebacker out
of "the box" in order to take away the quick-slant, which in turn will
allow them to play a lot more honest on the backside and play a lot more
aggressively versus the run if they want to get Sanders more involved near
the line. Culpepper might have all the time he needs, but without Moss
drawing so much attention to his side, other skill players such as WR's
Robinson, Nate Burleson and Kelly Campbell, and H-back Jermaine Wiggins
have proven to be incapable of gaining separation nearly as often.
The Vikings have also struggled to run the football as well with Moss out
of the lineup because opponents can be a lot more honest and aggressive in
their approach. Rookie RB Mewelde Moore got off to a strong start but his
overall production has tailed off since Moss suffered his injury. The good
news, however, is that the Vikings will get back RB Onterrio Smith, who
returns from a four-game suspension. Smith is likely to split carries with
Moore and should provide a lot more power and burst for the Vikings
running attack. While this has been a unit that has passed the ball to set
up the run for much of the season, that trend might work in the reverse
this week without Moss and against a Colts' run defense that is giving up
112.9 yards per game.
The Vikings defensive front-four pressure will be a huge key in this game,
as QB Peyton Manning will absolutely pick them apart if they are forced to
blitz in order to get pressure on him. So far the unit has received solid
production, as it is getting fresh legs as a result of a heavy rotation.
With Chris Hovan moving to a backup role, he has provided a spark when he
comes into the game on passing downs. The team is also getting terrific
pressure from Lance Johnstone, who plays a situational pass-rusher role at
LDE, and UT Kevin Williams, who combined for three sacks against the
Giants last week.
Even if the Vikings don't blitz much, still look for the Colts to work the
underneath zones frequently in this game. The Vikings not only have
inexperienced linebackers in rookie Dontarrious Thomas and second-year pro
E.J. Henderson for Manning to pick on but they also miss the athleticism
in coverage of Chris Claiborne, who is doubtful because of a calf injury.
Especially if the Colts can establish a decent running game early, the
play-action passing series could spell doom for the Vikings. On top of
their inexperience and injuries at linebacker, the Vikings lack good
matchup players at the safety positions. SS Corey Chavous is tough versus
the run and is savvy in zone coverage, but his weakness is in man-coverage
and the Colts have the pass-catching tight ends in Marcus Pollard and
Dallas Clark to exploit that, especially if Manning can get Chavous to
take some false steps versus the play-fake. FS Brian Russell is
opportunistic and does a decent job in deep-middle coverage but he's not
athletic enough to match up one-on-one against a speedy receiver like
Brandon Stokley if the Colts can get Stokley in Russell's zone.
Special Teams
Indianapolis has better all-around personnel in the kicking game. PK Mike
Vanderjagt missed from 54 yards out last week but that was just his second
missed field goal in seven attempts and he remains one of the best in the
business at the position. PT Hunter Smith also ranks among the league's
elite, as he is second in the NFL with an average of 46.5 yards per punt.
The Vikings haven't been bad in the kicking game and they certainly have
two solid veterans to rely on in terms of consistency and making plays in
clutch situations, but PK Morten Andersen and PT Darren Bennett are
nowhere near as dangerous as the duo of Vanderjagt and Smith.
Neither team has been overly impressive in the return game. With such
veteran and consistent punters/kickers on both sides, don't expect either
team to buck that trend. The Colts miss RS Brad Pyatt. Without him they
have had to rely on Dominic Rhodes to return kickoffs and rookie Jason
David to return punts. The problem for the Vikings, however, is that they
don't have the explosive personnel to take advantage, as PR Nate Burleson
and KOR Kelly Campbell haven't been overly productive either.
Prediction: Colts 30, Vikings 27
Scouts Inc.
Tuesday, our scouts filed their advance advance scouting report on this
week's matchup between the Vikings and Colts. Now they're back with a
second look.
The Colts secondary is a mess right now. Rookie DS Bob Sanders will get
his first NFL start for Mike Doss, who re-aggravated his strained groin
last week. Sanders is a fast, tough and aggressive player with a lot of
upside as a versatile safety in this scheme but he was one of the last
rookies in the NFL to sign his contract and he has had very little time to
get reps and prepare. Sanders played well in his first extended period of
playing time last week, but there has to be concern about him getting out
of position and making rookie mistakes against QB Daunte Culpepper.
Making matters worse is that the Colts have had to play two rookies
extensively at cornerback. Jason David is the starter on the right side
and Von Hutchins has become the nickel starter. David is a tough
cornerback with good overall athleticism but he doesn't have great size or
speed, and he seems to be playing very tentatively recently. Because of
their inconsistency and inexperience in the secondary, the Colts haven't
been able to properly execute their cover-2 scheme, which relies heavily
on communication and trusting teammates to "get one another's back." The
result is a unit that has surrendered 26 completions of 20-or-more yards
in seven games. As a comparison, after the same amount of games last
season, the Colts had only surrendered 11 of 20 yards or more.
The other big problem that has plagued the Colts this season and will
continue to plague them on Sunday is their inability to get consistent
pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Outside of RDE Dwight Freeney, the
Colts have no true threats as pass rushers. In fact, the other three
starting defensive linemen on that unit -- DT's Montae Reagor and Josh
Williams, and LDE Raheem Brock, have combined for just two sacks on the
season. Most teams need to give Freeney double-team attention on almost
every passing down, but the Vikings should be in good shape with LOT
Bryant McKinnie handling Freeney one-on-one. The last time these two met
was in college, when McKinnie absolutely erased Freeney from the game with
his quick feet and imposing size. With all the time he needs to set up and
step into his throws in the pocket, Culpepper should be in good position
to spread the ball around the field to his multitude of different weapon.
The problem that the Vikings face is that with Randy Moss out and Marcus
Robinson hobbled with a foot injury, they simply lack the explosiveness to
fully exploit the Colts defense like the Chiefs did a week ago. The Colts
won't need to roll their coverage to Moss' side or keep a linebacker out
of "the box" in order to take away the quick-slant, which in turn will
allow them to play a lot more honest on the backside and play a lot more
aggressively versus the run if they want to get Sanders more involved near
the line. Culpepper might have all the time he needs, but without Moss
drawing so much attention to his side, other skill players such as WR's
Robinson, Nate Burleson and Kelly Campbell, and H-back Jermaine Wiggins
have proven to be incapable of gaining separation nearly as often.
The Vikings have also struggled to run the football as well with Moss out
of the lineup because opponents can be a lot more honest and aggressive in
their approach. Rookie RB Mewelde Moore got off to a strong start but his
overall production has tailed off since Moss suffered his injury. The good
news, however, is that the Vikings will get back RB Onterrio Smith, who
returns from a four-game suspension. Smith is likely to split carries with
Moore and should provide a lot more power and burst for the Vikings
running attack. While this has been a unit that has passed the ball to set
up the run for much of the season, that trend might work in the reverse
this week without Moss and against a Colts' run defense that is giving up
112.9 yards per game.
The Vikings defensive front-four pressure will be a huge key in this game,
as QB Peyton Manning will absolutely pick them apart if they are forced to
blitz in order to get pressure on him. So far the unit has received solid
production, as it is getting fresh legs as a result of a heavy rotation.
With Chris Hovan moving to a backup role, he has provided a spark when he
comes into the game on passing downs. The team is also getting terrific
pressure from Lance Johnstone, who plays a situational pass-rusher role at
LDE, and UT Kevin Williams, who combined for three sacks against the
Giants last week.
Even if the Vikings don't blitz much, still look for the Colts to work the
underneath zones frequently in this game. The Vikings not only have
inexperienced linebackers in rookie Dontarrious Thomas and second-year pro
E.J. Henderson for Manning to pick on but they also miss the athleticism
in coverage of Chris Claiborne, who is doubtful because of a calf injury.
Especially if the Colts can establish a decent running game early, the
play-action passing series could spell doom for the Vikings. On top of
their inexperience and injuries at linebacker, the Vikings lack good
matchup players at the safety positions. SS Corey Chavous is tough versus
the run and is savvy in zone coverage, but his weakness is in man-coverage
and the Colts have the pass-catching tight ends in Marcus Pollard and
Dallas Clark to exploit that, especially if Manning can get Chavous to
take some false steps versus the play-fake. FS Brian Russell is
opportunistic and does a decent job in deep-middle coverage but he's not
athletic enough to match up one-on-one against a speedy receiver like
Brandon Stokley if the Colts can get Stokley in Russell's zone.
Special Teams
Indianapolis has better all-around personnel in the kicking game. PK Mike
Vanderjagt missed from 54 yards out last week but that was just his second
missed field goal in seven attempts and he remains one of the best in the
business at the position. PT Hunter Smith also ranks among the league's
elite, as he is second in the NFL with an average of 46.5 yards per punt.
The Vikings haven't been bad in the kicking game and they certainly have
two solid veterans to rely on in terms of consistency and making plays in
clutch situations, but PK Morten Andersen and PT Darren Bennett are
nowhere near as dangerous as the duo of Vanderjagt and Smith.
Neither team has been overly impressive in the return game. With such
veteran and consistent punters/kickers on both sides, don't expect either
team to buck that trend. The Colts miss RS Brad Pyatt. Without him they
have had to rely on Dominic Rhodes to return kickoffs and rookie Jason
David to return punts. The problem for the Vikings, however, is that they
don't have the explosive personnel to take advantage, as PR Nate Burleson
and KOR Kelly Campbell haven't been overly productive either.
Prediction: Colts 30, Vikings 27
