It's bowl season. ESPN Chalk's college football Vegas experts -- Phil Steele, Will Harris, "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris Fallica -- are here to provide analysis and their best bets for every single bowl game to be played from Dec. 16 through New Year's Day.
This file will be continuously updated throughout bowl season with fresh information, providing you with a thorough one-stop destination for all of your bowl game betting advice.
Note: The College Football Playoff semifinals and national championship will be separately addressed by ESPN Chalk. All game times listed are Eastern. Lines are from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, as of Wednesday, Dec. 13.
[h=2]R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl[/h]
[h=2]Troy Trojans (-6.5, 62) vs. North Texas Mean Green[/h]Dec. 16, 1 p.m., ESPN
Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans
PickCenter: 78 percent pick North Texas
Steele: Troy tied for the Sun Belt title, while North Texas lost to Florida Atlantic in the C-USA title game. North Texas' four losses came by an average of 24.3 points per game, and five of its nine wins came by seven points or less (four were by three or less). Troy went 10-2 straight up but just 5-6 ATS. Trojans QB Brandon Silvers had more than 20 touchdown passes in both 2015 and 2016 but has only a 13-6 ratio this year. I give a slight edge at quarterback to North Texas' Mason Fine, who improved in his second year as a starter, completing 64 percent with a 28-13 ratio.
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</aside>The Mean Green have a slight edge at receiver and on special teams (I rate them No. 7 in the country) and have faced the tougher schedule (No. 94 versus No. 117). With North Texas' top running back (Jeffery Wilson) out, I give Troy the edge in the running game, led by the school's all-time rushing leader, Jordan Chunn. Troy's biggest edge is at defensive line, and its deep unit has allowed just 3.0 yards per carry and has recorded 36 sacks.
I like Troy to win the game, as the Trojans have a significant edge on defense, and I will use them in my bowl confidence contest. With the North Texas offense averaging 66 yards per game more than its opponent allows on average, and the Trojans' defense allowing foes 57 yards per game more than they come in averaging, I will lean with the over.
Pick: Over 62 total points
Harris: We love the year-round emphasis North Texas coach Seth Littrell places on winning, rather than just attending, a bowl game. It would be better if Wilson were available (he's very doubtful), but redshirt frosh Nick Smith has been an adequate fill-in, and this offense still has the C-USA Offensive Player of the Year (quarterback Mason Fine) throwing to the league's Newcomer of the Year (wideout Jalen Guyton). With 10 wins, a signature victory at LSU and a conference championship all in the bank, Troy's 2017 success is a fait accompli, while the Mean Green are still hungry for more.
ATS pick: North Texas
Score: Troy 31, North Texas 30
Fallica: Troy is the known side here after winning at LSU earlier this year. North Texas struggled to slow Florida Atlantic in the C-USA championship game, but the Mean Green won't face as prolific an offense here in Troy, which was held under 300 yards despite the win at Arkansas State to end the regular season. The Trojans' defense took a hit with the injury to top cornerback Blace Brown, so if Mason Fine doesn't turn it over and Nic Smith can continue producing for injured running back Jeffrey Wilson, I like North Texas to pull off the upset and get its 10th win of the season.
ATS pick: North Texas
Score: North Texas 34, Troy 31
[h=2]AutoNation Cure Bowl[/h]
[h=2]Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (-6, 51.5) vs. Georgia State Panthers[/h]Dec. 16, 2:30 p.m., CBSSN
Camping World Stadium, Orlando, Florida
PickCenter: 73 percent pick Georgia State
Steele: Western Kentucky defeated teams that were a combined 18-53, while Georgia State vanquished foes that were 16-56. Mike Sanford Jr. took over a Hilltoppers team that had averaged 529 yards per game and 5.4 yards per carry while scoring 46 PPG last year. Western Kentucky's offense took a big drop to just 400 yards per game of total offense (66 rushing yards per game) and just 26 PPG despite quarterback Mike White returning. White threw for 4,352 yards in 2016 with a 37-7 ratio and dropped to 3,826 yards with a 24-7 ratio this year.
The Hilltoppers allowed 22 sacks last year but yielded 42 this season. The good news is that Georgia State does not have a great pass rush, entering with just 20 total sacks. Georgia State averages only 3.2 yards per carry on offense, and quarterback Conner Manning, a Utah transfer, has just a 13-7 ratio despite facing Sun Belt foes. The Panthers' best offensive player is wide receiver Penny Hart, but he is questionable.
Western Kentucky has the edge on offense, defense and special teams, and needs a win to avoid a losing season. Georgia State is 6-5 and just happy to be in a bowl after a 3-9 record last year. The Hilltoppers were plus-23 yards per game against the five bowl teams they faced, while Georgia State was minus-165 yards per game against the three bowl teams it faced.
ATS pick: Western Kentucky
[h=2]Las Vegas Bowl[/h]
[h=2]No. 25 Boise State Broncos vs. Oregon Ducks (-7.5, 60)[/h]Dec. 16, 3:30 p.m., ABC
Sam Boyd Stadium, Las Vegas
PickCenter: 55 percent pick Boise State
Steele: Oregon coach Willie Taggart left for Florida State, but Cristobal was already on staff. I thought Cristobal did a great job at Florida International, taking over a winless team and guiding it to a pair of winning seasons in his six years. He is 1-1 in bowls. Boise has my No. 11-rated special-teams unit, while Oregon is just No. 90; all the other edges belong to the Ducks. They faced the tougher schedule and outgained foes by 95 yards per game, while Boise was only plus-64 yards per game. While Boise has the edge statistically on defense, the Ducks took on much more potent offenses. I give Oregon a small edge on the defensive line with edges at linebacker and the secondary.
The biggest wild card in this game is quarterback Justin Herbert, who started the first five games but was injured and missed five before starting the last two. Without Herbert, Oregon averaged just 15 PPG, but in his seven games they averaged an amazing 52.1. I like Oregon to win the game, but the Ducks are laying over a touchdown, so I will go with the over as the top play in this one.
Pick: Over 60 total points
Fallica: Bowls are often decided by who is motivated to play, and I think the Ducks will be motivated to play after Mario Cristobal was named head coach, replacing Willie Taggart. Quarterback Justin Herbert missed five games this year with an injury, but he's back, and the Ducks are a legit top-20 team with him in the lineup. With Herbert, they went 6-1 and averaged 50 PPG. I like the Ducks to win by double digits.
ATS pick: Oregon
Score: Oregon 38, Boise State 24
[h=2]Gildan New Mexico Bowl[/h]
[h=2]Marshall Thundering Herd vs. Colorado State Rams (-5.5, 58.5)[/h]Dec. 16, 4:30 p.m., ESPN
Branch Field at Dreamstyle Stadium, Albuquerque, New Mexico
PickCenter: 61 percent pick Colorado State
Steele: This game features two teams that started out fast and had solid hopes of winning their conferences but combined to finish 3-7 over the last five games of the season. Colorado State has the clear offensive edge with Dalyn Dawkins and Izzy Matthews at running back and Biletnikoff finalist Michael Gallup at wide receiver. The offensive line opened up holes for 5.2 yards per carry, and Marshall averaged just 3.8 yards per carry. Marshall has the clear edge on defense, as it allowed just 3.5 yards per carry, while the Rams' defense yielded 5.0 yards per carry. Marshall also ranks No. 58 in my pass defense rankings (Colorado State is No. 90).
Colorado State is closer to home, used to the altitude and played in this stadium this year. The final three factors all favor the Herd. Marshall faced the tougher schedule and is No. 16 in my special-teams ratings, while Colorado State is No. 55. Doc Holiday is a perfect 4-0 in bowl games, and Mike Bobo is 0-2. I will take the points in a possible upset.
ATS pick: Marshall
[h=2]Raycom Media Camellia Bowl[/h]
[h=2]Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves (-4, 62.5)[/h]Dec. 16, 8 p.m., ESPN
Cramton Bowl, Montgomery, Alabama
PickCenter: 68 percent pick Arkansas State
Steele: Arkansas State might have been the best team in the Sun Belt, but it did not share the title. In their last game, the Red Wolves had a 313-yard edge but lost to Troy. On the season, they outgained SBC foes by 231 yards per game. Oklahoma transfer quarterback Justice Hansen had a 34-15 ratio, and diminutive Warren Wand is the top rusher with 667 yards. Middle Tennessee came into the season in great shape with its pass game, but quarterback Brent Stockstill was injured after two games and missed six, and top wide receiver Richie James was lost for the year after eight games.
With Stockstill in the lineup, Middle Tennessee averaged 30 PPG, but without him it managed just 19.5. Arkansas State has a legitimate defensive line led by Ja'Von Rolland-Jones and Alabama transfer Dee Liner. I like Arkansas State to win the game, but I will side with the over now that Stockstill is healthier.
Pick: Over 62 total points
Coughlin: After traveling to play in the Hawai'i Bowl last season and the Bahamas Bowl in 2015, Middle Tennessee is a lot happier with this bowl game situation. The MTSU campus is less than 300 miles from Montgomery, Alabama, where this game will be played. Blue Raiders head coach Rick Stockstill and the athletic department have bought $10,000 worth of tickets for students. The Blue Raiders were the only Conference USA team to face three Power 5 opponents this season and one of only two teams from the conference to secure a Power 5 win, upsetting Syracuse 30-23. Since they got Brent Stockstill back from injury, they closed the year 3-1, including a win in the final two weeks to clinch a 6-6 season and a bowl berth. I think motivation is there for both teams to win this game. I'll take the underdog to win.
ATS pick: Middle Tennessee
Score: Middle Tennessee 31, Arkansas State 24
[h=2]Cheribundi Tart Cherry Boca Raton Bowl[/h]
[h=2]Akron Zips vs. Florida Atlantic Owls (-22.5, 61.5)[/h]Dec. 19, 7 p.m., ESPN
Howard Schnellenberger Field at FAU Stadium, Boca Raton, Florida
PickCenter: 67 percent pick FAU
Steele: This is the largest point spread in a bowl game in more than 20 years, and it is deserved. Florida Atlantic won 10 games, and seven were by 24 points or more. Florida Atlantic outgained conference foes by 127 yards per game, and Akron, despite going 6-2 against the weak MAC East, was actually outgained by 103 yards per game.
Akron quarterback Thomas Woodson was suspended a couple of games and had just 35 yards passing his last game but completed 57 percent of his passes on the year. Kato Nelson completed just 49 percent. Florida Atlantic running back Devin Singletary will be the best player on the field, and my computer calls for the Owls to rush for 301 yards and pass for 226. Florida Atlantic's biggest edge is on special teams, where I have them rated at No. 13 versus Akron at No. 129. Akron does have the edge of being a huge bowl underdog and should be highly motivated with no one giving it a chance to win. I have Florida Atlantic at the top of my bowl confidence contest to win this game, but I like the Zips to keep this within the huge spread.
ATS pick: Akron
This file will be continuously updated throughout bowl season with fresh information, providing you with a thorough one-stop destination for all of your bowl game betting advice.
Note: The College Football Playoff semifinals and national championship will be separately addressed by ESPN Chalk. All game times listed are Eastern. Lines are from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, as of Wednesday, Dec. 13.
[h=2]Troy Trojans (-6.5, 62) vs. North Texas Mean Green[/h]Dec. 16, 1 p.m., ESPN
Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans
PickCenter: 78 percent pick North Texas
Steele: Troy tied for the Sun Belt title, while North Texas lost to Florida Atlantic in the C-USA title game. North Texas' four losses came by an average of 24.3 points per game, and five of its nine wins came by seven points or less (four were by three or less). Troy went 10-2 straight up but just 5-6 ATS. Trojans QB Brandon Silvers had more than 20 touchdown passes in both 2015 and 2016 but has only a 13-6 ratio this year. I give a slight edge at quarterback to North Texas' Mason Fine, who improved in his second year as a starter, completing 64 percent with a 28-13 ratio.
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</aside>The Mean Green have a slight edge at receiver and on special teams (I rate them No. 7 in the country) and have faced the tougher schedule (No. 94 versus No. 117). With North Texas' top running back (Jeffery Wilson) out, I give Troy the edge in the running game, led by the school's all-time rushing leader, Jordan Chunn. Troy's biggest edge is at defensive line, and its deep unit has allowed just 3.0 yards per carry and has recorded 36 sacks.
I like Troy to win the game, as the Trojans have a significant edge on defense, and I will use them in my bowl confidence contest. With the North Texas offense averaging 66 yards per game more than its opponent allows on average, and the Trojans' defense allowing foes 57 yards per game more than they come in averaging, I will lean with the over.
Pick: Over 62 total points
Harris: We love the year-round emphasis North Texas coach Seth Littrell places on winning, rather than just attending, a bowl game. It would be better if Wilson were available (he's very doubtful), but redshirt frosh Nick Smith has been an adequate fill-in, and this offense still has the C-USA Offensive Player of the Year (quarterback Mason Fine) throwing to the league's Newcomer of the Year (wideout Jalen Guyton). With 10 wins, a signature victory at LSU and a conference championship all in the bank, Troy's 2017 success is a fait accompli, while the Mean Green are still hungry for more.
ATS pick: North Texas
Score: Troy 31, North Texas 30
Fallica: Troy is the known side here after winning at LSU earlier this year. North Texas struggled to slow Florida Atlantic in the C-USA championship game, but the Mean Green won't face as prolific an offense here in Troy, which was held under 300 yards despite the win at Arkansas State to end the regular season. The Trojans' defense took a hit with the injury to top cornerback Blace Brown, so if Mason Fine doesn't turn it over and Nic Smith can continue producing for injured running back Jeffrey Wilson, I like North Texas to pull off the upset and get its 10th win of the season.
ATS pick: North Texas
Score: North Texas 34, Troy 31
[h=2]AutoNation Cure Bowl[/h]
[h=2]Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (-6, 51.5) vs. Georgia State Panthers[/h]Dec. 16, 2:30 p.m., CBSSN
Camping World Stadium, Orlando, Florida
PickCenter: 73 percent pick Georgia State
Steele: Western Kentucky defeated teams that were a combined 18-53, while Georgia State vanquished foes that were 16-56. Mike Sanford Jr. took over a Hilltoppers team that had averaged 529 yards per game and 5.4 yards per carry while scoring 46 PPG last year. Western Kentucky's offense took a big drop to just 400 yards per game of total offense (66 rushing yards per game) and just 26 PPG despite quarterback Mike White returning. White threw for 4,352 yards in 2016 with a 37-7 ratio and dropped to 3,826 yards with a 24-7 ratio this year.
The Hilltoppers allowed 22 sacks last year but yielded 42 this season. The good news is that Georgia State does not have a great pass rush, entering with just 20 total sacks. Georgia State averages only 3.2 yards per carry on offense, and quarterback Conner Manning, a Utah transfer, has just a 13-7 ratio despite facing Sun Belt foes. The Panthers' best offensive player is wide receiver Penny Hart, but he is questionable.
Western Kentucky has the edge on offense, defense and special teams, and needs a win to avoid a losing season. Georgia State is 6-5 and just happy to be in a bowl after a 3-9 record last year. The Hilltoppers were plus-23 yards per game against the five bowl teams they faced, while Georgia State was minus-165 yards per game against the three bowl teams it faced.
ATS pick: Western Kentucky
[h=2]Las Vegas Bowl[/h]
[h=2]No. 25 Boise State Broncos vs. Oregon Ducks (-7.5, 60)[/h]Dec. 16, 3:30 p.m., ABC
Sam Boyd Stadium, Las Vegas
PickCenter: 55 percent pick Boise State
Steele: Oregon coach Willie Taggart left for Florida State, but Cristobal was already on staff. I thought Cristobal did a great job at Florida International, taking over a winless team and guiding it to a pair of winning seasons in his six years. He is 1-1 in bowls. Boise has my No. 11-rated special-teams unit, while Oregon is just No. 90; all the other edges belong to the Ducks. They faced the tougher schedule and outgained foes by 95 yards per game, while Boise was only plus-64 yards per game. While Boise has the edge statistically on defense, the Ducks took on much more potent offenses. I give Oregon a small edge on the defensive line with edges at linebacker and the secondary.
The biggest wild card in this game is quarterback Justin Herbert, who started the first five games but was injured and missed five before starting the last two. Without Herbert, Oregon averaged just 15 PPG, but in his seven games they averaged an amazing 52.1. I like Oregon to win the game, but the Ducks are laying over a touchdown, so I will go with the over as the top play in this one.
Pick: Over 60 total points
Fallica: Bowls are often decided by who is motivated to play, and I think the Ducks will be motivated to play after Mario Cristobal was named head coach, replacing Willie Taggart. Quarterback Justin Herbert missed five games this year with an injury, but he's back, and the Ducks are a legit top-20 team with him in the lineup. With Herbert, they went 6-1 and averaged 50 PPG. I like the Ducks to win by double digits.
ATS pick: Oregon
Score: Oregon 38, Boise State 24
[h=2]Gildan New Mexico Bowl[/h]
[h=2]Marshall Thundering Herd vs. Colorado State Rams (-5.5, 58.5)[/h]Dec. 16, 4:30 p.m., ESPN
Branch Field at Dreamstyle Stadium, Albuquerque, New Mexico
PickCenter: 61 percent pick Colorado State
Steele: This game features two teams that started out fast and had solid hopes of winning their conferences but combined to finish 3-7 over the last five games of the season. Colorado State has the clear offensive edge with Dalyn Dawkins and Izzy Matthews at running back and Biletnikoff finalist Michael Gallup at wide receiver. The offensive line opened up holes for 5.2 yards per carry, and Marshall averaged just 3.8 yards per carry. Marshall has the clear edge on defense, as it allowed just 3.5 yards per carry, while the Rams' defense yielded 5.0 yards per carry. Marshall also ranks No. 58 in my pass defense rankings (Colorado State is No. 90).
Colorado State is closer to home, used to the altitude and played in this stadium this year. The final three factors all favor the Herd. Marshall faced the tougher schedule and is No. 16 in my special-teams ratings, while Colorado State is No. 55. Doc Holiday is a perfect 4-0 in bowl games, and Mike Bobo is 0-2. I will take the points in a possible upset.
ATS pick: Marshall
[h=2]Raycom Media Camellia Bowl[/h]
[h=2]Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves (-4, 62.5)[/h]Dec. 16, 8 p.m., ESPN
Cramton Bowl, Montgomery, Alabama
PickCenter: 68 percent pick Arkansas State
Steele: Arkansas State might have been the best team in the Sun Belt, but it did not share the title. In their last game, the Red Wolves had a 313-yard edge but lost to Troy. On the season, they outgained SBC foes by 231 yards per game. Oklahoma transfer quarterback Justice Hansen had a 34-15 ratio, and diminutive Warren Wand is the top rusher with 667 yards. Middle Tennessee came into the season in great shape with its pass game, but quarterback Brent Stockstill was injured after two games and missed six, and top wide receiver Richie James was lost for the year after eight games.
With Stockstill in the lineup, Middle Tennessee averaged 30 PPG, but without him it managed just 19.5. Arkansas State has a legitimate defensive line led by Ja'Von Rolland-Jones and Alabama transfer Dee Liner. I like Arkansas State to win the game, but I will side with the over now that Stockstill is healthier.
Pick: Over 62 total points
Coughlin: After traveling to play in the Hawai'i Bowl last season and the Bahamas Bowl in 2015, Middle Tennessee is a lot happier with this bowl game situation. The MTSU campus is less than 300 miles from Montgomery, Alabama, where this game will be played. Blue Raiders head coach Rick Stockstill and the athletic department have bought $10,000 worth of tickets for students. The Blue Raiders were the only Conference USA team to face three Power 5 opponents this season and one of only two teams from the conference to secure a Power 5 win, upsetting Syracuse 30-23. Since they got Brent Stockstill back from injury, they closed the year 3-1, including a win in the final two weeks to clinch a 6-6 season and a bowl berth. I think motivation is there for both teams to win this game. I'll take the underdog to win.
ATS pick: Middle Tennessee
Score: Middle Tennessee 31, Arkansas State 24
[h=2]Cheribundi Tart Cherry Boca Raton Bowl[/h]
[h=2]Akron Zips vs. Florida Atlantic Owls (-22.5, 61.5)[/h]Dec. 19, 7 p.m., ESPN
Howard Schnellenberger Field at FAU Stadium, Boca Raton, Florida
PickCenter: 67 percent pick FAU
Steele: This is the largest point spread in a bowl game in more than 20 years, and it is deserved. Florida Atlantic won 10 games, and seven were by 24 points or more. Florida Atlantic outgained conference foes by 127 yards per game, and Akron, despite going 6-2 against the weak MAC East, was actually outgained by 103 yards per game.
Akron quarterback Thomas Woodson was suspended a couple of games and had just 35 yards passing his last game but completed 57 percent of his passes on the year. Kato Nelson completed just 49 percent. Florida Atlantic running back Devin Singletary will be the best player on the field, and my computer calls for the Owls to rush for 301 yards and pass for 226. Florida Atlantic's biggest edge is on special teams, where I have them rated at No. 13 versus Akron at No. 129. Akron does have the edge of being a huge bowl underdog and should be highly motivated with no one giving it a chance to win. I have Florida Atlantic at the top of my bowl confidence contest to win this game, but I like the Zips to keep this within the huge spread.
ATS pick: Akron
