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SWEET 16
Duke vs. LSU-- The Tigers are among the NCAA's top 5 rebounding teams, and that of course presents major problems for Duke. The Blue Devils probably won't get the calls they got in Greensboro against George Washington, (at least they shouldn't) but Duke has a huge experience edge in this one with Reddick, Dockery, and Williams. Duke has lost on the glass all season and won the game so why should this one be different? It's the team with the guards to handle Duke's pressure, and an athlete to shadow Reddick defensively that will beat the Blue Devils. Not sure LSU has that. Duke by 6
Bradley vs. Memphis -- PLAY ON BRADLEY PLUS THE POINTS Bradley has been the Missouri Valley's most talented team for 2 seasons. That talent gained experience as the season went on and F Summerville learned how to defer to C O'Bryant when need be. Once the Braves got a couple of road wins under their belt, things really started to click. Bradley really has no weaknesses, and are able to play inside or out (11 made 3FG against Kansas, only 6 attempts vs. Pitt). They allow only 40% from the field, 30% from 3 and have forced 32 turnovers in their 2 upset wins. Those are the kind of defensive numbers you don't want to lay points to. Memphis is super athletic, and definitely worthy of their #1 seed. However, Bradley just waltzed through two teams that the Tigers really aren't much better then, and there is no line adjustment. Memphis by only 1
West Virginia vs. Texas -- Only 1 team out of 334 NCAA tourney teams rebounds worse than the Mountaineers, but yet here Beilein's boys are in the Sweet 16 for the second straight year. None of those 334 rebound better than Texas (UConn is tied with the Longhorns as the nation's leader in rebounding margin), so this is indeed strength against weakness. This game all comes down to how many 3 pointers the Mountaineers' make, and note that Texas allows less than 32% from behind the arc. Texas has a huge talent edge, but WVU cannot be counted out because of basketball IQ and coaching. Texas by 5
UCLA vs. Gonzaga -- Diabetic Morrison recovering from the flu, and the Zags need him in the worst of ways, as UCLA is looking stronger by the game, especially when the Pac 10's postseason performance is factored in. The Bruins own a huge defensive advantage in this game (58 ppg vs. 73 ppg), and they can come at you 10 deep. They are also very good at not sending teams to the line, and that is huge here as Gonzaga is the nation's leader in Free Throw Attempts and Free Throw %. Line on the way down, and definitely tempted to lay the points with UCLA. However, Morrison seems determined to not play his last game, and Mark Few and the Zags know this may be their best chance at a Final Four. As much as I like UCLA, they may be a year away. Excellent West Coach matchup in Oakland. UCLA by 5
Boston College vs. Villanova-- The City of Philly was enough to help Nova win the battle of the Wildcats, but they don't have that advantage in this one. Villanova puts so much of an onus on their guards to make their 3 pointers, that you have to wonder what happens on an off shooting day, as their overall shooting, rebounding, and defensive numbers are not that great. However, they may just matchup well with a BC team allowing over 40% from downtown in away game's this season. Stopping the Eagles' powerful inside attack is another story, though, and Boston College showed tremendous heart in double overtime in the altitude off of 3 grueling ACC tourney games in 1st round Pacific thriller. PG Hinnant is very underrated for BC, as well, and their backcourt is defintely not a liability. Edge at the free throw line (76-68%) may be enough to help Nova prevail in what is one of the tourney's best matchups thus far. Nova by 1
George Mason vs. Wichita St. -- Conflicting angles in this one as both teams off of underdog wins. Both the Missouri Valley and the Colonial have looked very good in both tourneys, so no real advantage there. Patriots did win at WSU on Bracket Baster Sunday, the win that most likely earned them a spot in this tourney. They have faced a tougher road thus far than have the Shockers, and should have the edge in crowd support because of the Washington DC venue (about 40 minutes away from Fairfax, VA, the Patriots' home). Lean their way, but most are thinking that way as this line is up to GMU by 2 after opening at a pick 'em. George Mason by 3
Florida vs. Georgetown -- Gators looked like monsters in Jacksonville, but actually think Hoyas' performance against Ohio St. IN DAYTON, OH, was one of the tourament's most impressive wins. Interesting to see if a bunch of guys playing in their first NCAA tourney game can move forward off of that, and avoid a "bounce" (horse player's term). Big East pedigree may be worth a look as an underdog, and although I respect the Gators, their defensive pressure and ability to shoot the 3, not sure any of their wins warrants 3 pt. chalk over this Georgetown squad. Points worth a look. Georgetown by 1.
Washington vs. UConn-- UConn in a bit of a funk right now, and despite a 29-3 record, this bunch simply does not play to the sum of its parts. They haven't covered in their last 5, and the West Coast Huskies can win this outright if the East Coast ones continue to think they can turn it off and on. This Husky bunch has two wins over UCLA (albeit one came with the Bruins very beat up), and the Pac 10 conference has looked suprisingly strong overall this postseason. Calhoun's teams usually get stronger as the season and more importantly, this tournament progress, though, and this line would have been double digits two weeks ago. If UConn puts whats on paper on the court for 40 minutes, they are the nation's best. They simply haven't done that lately. UConn by 4.
SWEET 16
Duke vs. LSU-- The Tigers are among the NCAA's top 5 rebounding teams, and that of course presents major problems for Duke. The Blue Devils probably won't get the calls they got in Greensboro against George Washington, (at least they shouldn't) but Duke has a huge experience edge in this one with Reddick, Dockery, and Williams. Duke has lost on the glass all season and won the game so why should this one be different? It's the team with the guards to handle Duke's pressure, and an athlete to shadow Reddick defensively that will beat the Blue Devils. Not sure LSU has that. Duke by 6
Bradley vs. Memphis -- PLAY ON BRADLEY PLUS THE POINTS Bradley has been the Missouri Valley's most talented team for 2 seasons. That talent gained experience as the season went on and F Summerville learned how to defer to C O'Bryant when need be. Once the Braves got a couple of road wins under their belt, things really started to click. Bradley really has no weaknesses, and are able to play inside or out (11 made 3FG against Kansas, only 6 attempts vs. Pitt). They allow only 40% from the field, 30% from 3 and have forced 32 turnovers in their 2 upset wins. Those are the kind of defensive numbers you don't want to lay points to. Memphis is super athletic, and definitely worthy of their #1 seed. However, Bradley just waltzed through two teams that the Tigers really aren't much better then, and there is no line adjustment. Memphis by only 1
West Virginia vs. Texas -- Only 1 team out of 334 NCAA tourney teams rebounds worse than the Mountaineers, but yet here Beilein's boys are in the Sweet 16 for the second straight year. None of those 334 rebound better than Texas (UConn is tied with the Longhorns as the nation's leader in rebounding margin), so this is indeed strength against weakness. This game all comes down to how many 3 pointers the Mountaineers' make, and note that Texas allows less than 32% from behind the arc. Texas has a huge talent edge, but WVU cannot be counted out because of basketball IQ and coaching. Texas by 5
UCLA vs. Gonzaga -- Diabetic Morrison recovering from the flu, and the Zags need him in the worst of ways, as UCLA is looking stronger by the game, especially when the Pac 10's postseason performance is factored in. The Bruins own a huge defensive advantage in this game (58 ppg vs. 73 ppg), and they can come at you 10 deep. They are also very good at not sending teams to the line, and that is huge here as Gonzaga is the nation's leader in Free Throw Attempts and Free Throw %. Line on the way down, and definitely tempted to lay the points with UCLA. However, Morrison seems determined to not play his last game, and Mark Few and the Zags know this may be their best chance at a Final Four. As much as I like UCLA, they may be a year away. Excellent West Coach matchup in Oakland. UCLA by 5
Boston College vs. Villanova-- The City of Philly was enough to help Nova win the battle of the Wildcats, but they don't have that advantage in this one. Villanova puts so much of an onus on their guards to make their 3 pointers, that you have to wonder what happens on an off shooting day, as their overall shooting, rebounding, and defensive numbers are not that great. However, they may just matchup well with a BC team allowing over 40% from downtown in away game's this season. Stopping the Eagles' powerful inside attack is another story, though, and Boston College showed tremendous heart in double overtime in the altitude off of 3 grueling ACC tourney games in 1st round Pacific thriller. PG Hinnant is very underrated for BC, as well, and their backcourt is defintely not a liability. Edge at the free throw line (76-68%) may be enough to help Nova prevail in what is one of the tourney's best matchups thus far. Nova by 1
George Mason vs. Wichita St. -- Conflicting angles in this one as both teams off of underdog wins. Both the Missouri Valley and the Colonial have looked very good in both tourneys, so no real advantage there. Patriots did win at WSU on Bracket Baster Sunday, the win that most likely earned them a spot in this tourney. They have faced a tougher road thus far than have the Shockers, and should have the edge in crowd support because of the Washington DC venue (about 40 minutes away from Fairfax, VA, the Patriots' home). Lean their way, but most are thinking that way as this line is up to GMU by 2 after opening at a pick 'em. George Mason by 3
Florida vs. Georgetown -- Gators looked like monsters in Jacksonville, but actually think Hoyas' performance against Ohio St. IN DAYTON, OH, was one of the tourament's most impressive wins. Interesting to see if a bunch of guys playing in their first NCAA tourney game can move forward off of that, and avoid a "bounce" (horse player's term). Big East pedigree may be worth a look as an underdog, and although I respect the Gators, their defensive pressure and ability to shoot the 3, not sure any of their wins warrants 3 pt. chalk over this Georgetown squad. Points worth a look. Georgetown by 1.
Washington vs. UConn-- UConn in a bit of a funk right now, and despite a 29-3 record, this bunch simply does not play to the sum of its parts. They haven't covered in their last 5, and the West Coast Huskies can win this outright if the East Coast ones continue to think they can turn it off and on. This Husky bunch has two wins over UCLA (albeit one came with the Bruins very beat up), and the Pac 10 conference has looked suprisingly strong overall this postseason. Calhoun's teams usually get stronger as the season and more importantly, this tournament progress, though, and this line would have been double digits two weeks ago. If UConn puts whats on paper on the court for 40 minutes, they are the nation's best. They simply haven't done that lately. UConn by 4.
