Plays
Cincy +3
Under 37 Clev
AZ +3
Det +3
Buffalo at Cincy- Agree with initial line move off of Cincy +3-125. Line bounced off of pick 'em and is now resting at Cincy +1' at most spots. The bounce was because of QB Palmer looking doubtful for this one, just when the youngster was starting to take his place among the top 10 QB's in this league. Backup QB Kitna no slouch and actually could start for about half of the teams in the NFL right now. Kitna nearly pulled off some of last year's magic last week at Foxboro, bringing the Bengals' back from a 21 point deficit to nearly tie the game in a 35-28 loss to the Pats. A closer look at the boxscore shows that Cincy moved the ball at will against the defending Super Bowl champs, winning yardage 478-351. This team is improving every week, and we think their slugfest victory at Baltimore, and near miss at New England are more impressive than the Bills 3 consecutive blowout victories over a beat up Seattle team, Miami, and what's left of the Cleveland Browns. In the last two weeks alone, the Bills have benefited from 12 takeaways. Their current 7-2 run has been impressive, but besides the victory at Seattle, trips to Baltimore and New England were noncompetitive losses. Granted, they do have the superior defense in this one, but this unit will get all they want from a Cincinnati team that has scored 102 points the last 3 weeks. Worth noting that home dog off of B2B 24> efforts are 61-38 $ since 1980. Buffalo has slim playoff hopes, and Cincinnati's are even slimmer, but we'll lean to the never-say-die Bengals on their strong homefield (10-5 SU/ATS last 15), in a game where we think they should be about a 3 point favorite.
St.Louis at Arizona- The endless list of the "play against the Rams on the road" trends in play here today, and that would be the way we are compelled to go in this one. They need this game desperately, but are 6-16$ on the road the last 3 seasons, and a pitiful 5-20$ on natural grass. Strong 16-3 system in play on the Cardinals here today, and Bulger most likely on the sidelines for this one. Statistically, the Rams are a completely different team when away from the Dome.
San Diego at Cleveland- Couple of systems tell us to play the Browns here, but they are fielding the equivalent to an exhibition team right now, they are that decimated by injuries. There is major weather in the forecast, however, and 10 points may be a bit high(remember Oakland vs. Denver) in the elements. Especially with the warm weather Chargers.
New Orleans at Tampa Bay- New Orleans caught Dallas in a Monday Night hangover last week. They'll catch Tampa Bay in a bad mood, fighting for their playoff lives today. Lay it or leave it.
Dallas at Philly- Philly way better on both sides of the ball, but Dallas may get that running game going against 4.4ypr Philly stop unit. Most likely pass.
Minny at Detroit- The poster child for failing gut checks has another one here today. Last week's reverse pass from Randy Moss just the tip of the iceberg, as the Vikings play calling has been horrible the last two seasons. They are also without their best defensive player, CB Winfield for today's game again today. Detroit is a perfect 11-0 as a division home dog its last 11 chances. RB Jones may go wild against Vikes run D allowing 4.9ypr. Lean to the Home Dog.
Houston at Chicago- I know one thing about this game, it is going to be damn cold in Chicago. These dome boys may not be too fond of today's conditions.
Seattle at Jets- Seattle a little bit of Jeckell & Hyde all season long, and that defense is still very banged up. Both teams need this game, but have a feeling the Jets are going to be the team that gets it done. Some weather issues here as well.
Denver at Kansas City- The Broncos have absolutely tortured us the past two weeks, beating up San Diego as an underdog, and dominating Miami last week as a big favorite, failing to take home the money in either game. Will lean to the Mile High boys again this week, as they sport a 100 ypg defensive advantage in this one, and catch KC in Monday night hangover mode. However, sometimes its hard to shake that turnover bug, and a couple home dog systems are pointing towards the Chiefs.
Jacksonville at Green Bay- Favre has never lost his last home game of the season, and is 36-1 SU when the temperature is below 34F. Jags have the superior defense, though.
Baltimore at Indy- Baltimore 14-6 last 20 as an away dog, and if any defense can stop Indy's quick strike, precision passing game, it's the Ravens with their plethora of talented DB's. Lean that way, but Indy taking offensive efficiency to a whole new level right now. PASS FOR NOW.
Cincy +3
Under 37 Clev
AZ +3
Det +3
Buffalo at Cincy- Agree with initial line move off of Cincy +3-125. Line bounced off of pick 'em and is now resting at Cincy +1' at most spots. The bounce was because of QB Palmer looking doubtful for this one, just when the youngster was starting to take his place among the top 10 QB's in this league. Backup QB Kitna no slouch and actually could start for about half of the teams in the NFL right now. Kitna nearly pulled off some of last year's magic last week at Foxboro, bringing the Bengals' back from a 21 point deficit to nearly tie the game in a 35-28 loss to the Pats. A closer look at the boxscore shows that Cincy moved the ball at will against the defending Super Bowl champs, winning yardage 478-351. This team is improving every week, and we think their slugfest victory at Baltimore, and near miss at New England are more impressive than the Bills 3 consecutive blowout victories over a beat up Seattle team, Miami, and what's left of the Cleveland Browns. In the last two weeks alone, the Bills have benefited from 12 takeaways. Their current 7-2 run has been impressive, but besides the victory at Seattle, trips to Baltimore and New England were noncompetitive losses. Granted, they do have the superior defense in this one, but this unit will get all they want from a Cincinnati team that has scored 102 points the last 3 weeks. Worth noting that home dog off of B2B 24> efforts are 61-38 $ since 1980. Buffalo has slim playoff hopes, and Cincinnati's are even slimmer, but we'll lean to the never-say-die Bengals on their strong homefield (10-5 SU/ATS last 15), in a game where we think they should be about a 3 point favorite.
St.Louis at Arizona- The endless list of the "play against the Rams on the road" trends in play here today, and that would be the way we are compelled to go in this one. They need this game desperately, but are 6-16$ on the road the last 3 seasons, and a pitiful 5-20$ on natural grass. Strong 16-3 system in play on the Cardinals here today, and Bulger most likely on the sidelines for this one. Statistically, the Rams are a completely different team when away from the Dome.
San Diego at Cleveland- Couple of systems tell us to play the Browns here, but they are fielding the equivalent to an exhibition team right now, they are that decimated by injuries. There is major weather in the forecast, however, and 10 points may be a bit high(remember Oakland vs. Denver) in the elements. Especially with the warm weather Chargers.
New Orleans at Tampa Bay- New Orleans caught Dallas in a Monday Night hangover last week. They'll catch Tampa Bay in a bad mood, fighting for their playoff lives today. Lay it or leave it.
Dallas at Philly- Philly way better on both sides of the ball, but Dallas may get that running game going against 4.4ypr Philly stop unit. Most likely pass.
Minny at Detroit- The poster child for failing gut checks has another one here today. Last week's reverse pass from Randy Moss just the tip of the iceberg, as the Vikings play calling has been horrible the last two seasons. They are also without their best defensive player, CB Winfield for today's game again today. Detroit is a perfect 11-0 as a division home dog its last 11 chances. RB Jones may go wild against Vikes run D allowing 4.9ypr. Lean to the Home Dog.
Houston at Chicago- I know one thing about this game, it is going to be damn cold in Chicago. These dome boys may not be too fond of today's conditions.
Seattle at Jets- Seattle a little bit of Jeckell & Hyde all season long, and that defense is still very banged up. Both teams need this game, but have a feeling the Jets are going to be the team that gets it done. Some weather issues here as well.
Denver at Kansas City- The Broncos have absolutely tortured us the past two weeks, beating up San Diego as an underdog, and dominating Miami last week as a big favorite, failing to take home the money in either game. Will lean to the Mile High boys again this week, as they sport a 100 ypg defensive advantage in this one, and catch KC in Monday night hangover mode. However, sometimes its hard to shake that turnover bug, and a couple home dog systems are pointing towards the Chiefs.
Jacksonville at Green Bay- Favre has never lost his last home game of the season, and is 36-1 SU when the temperature is below 34F. Jags have the superior defense, though.
Baltimore at Indy- Baltimore 14-6 last 20 as an away dog, and if any defense can stop Indy's quick strike, precision passing game, it's the Ravens with their plethora of talented DB's. Lean that way, but Indy taking offensive efficiency to a whole new level right now. PASS FOR NOW.
