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ERockMoney 2021 EURO Outlook
- Thread starter ERockMoney
- Start date
Group A:
Since Mancini took over the Italians have looked like the Italy we are used to seeing. The Italians are 22-7-2 under Mancini and are on a 26 match unbeaten streak. This side is stacked defensively and are strong in he middle of the field. The group of strikers may be the only concern with this side as they should be able to defend against any team in the tournament.
At -160, there is value on the Italians winning this group.
1.0 Italy to win Grp A -160
The rest of the group features wild card Turkey, the always stingy Swiss and Wales. Turkey can score with anyone, but can also be scored against versus anyone. The Swiss are always tough and should find themselves in a battle with Turkey for second, but I expect both to advance. I’m expecting a bit of a dumpster fire from Wales, the Giggs mess is hanging over the squad and they are far less talented than the 2016 version that made a surprising deep run to the semis.
0.5 Wales to finish last in Grp A +140
0.3 Italy/Turkey straight +300
The winner of this group should have a nice draw to the semis. A matchup versus Grp C runner up will leave Holland/Austria/Ukraine in the Rd of 16 and a likely date with the Grp B winner in the quarters. Belgium is tailor made for the Italians and can expect another frustrating exit from a major tournament.
Projected Finish Grp A:
Italy 7
Turkey 6
Swiss 4 (qualify)
Wales 0
Continued success.
Since Mancini took over the Italians have looked like the Italy we are used to seeing. The Italians are 22-7-2 under Mancini and are on a 26 match unbeaten streak. This side is stacked defensively and are strong in he middle of the field. The group of strikers may be the only concern with this side as they should be able to defend against any team in the tournament.
At -160, there is value on the Italians winning this group.
1.0 Italy to win Grp A -160
The rest of the group features wild card Turkey, the always stingy Swiss and Wales. Turkey can score with anyone, but can also be scored against versus anyone. The Swiss are always tough and should find themselves in a battle with Turkey for second, but I expect both to advance. I’m expecting a bit of a dumpster fire from Wales, the Giggs mess is hanging over the squad and they are far less talented than the 2016 version that made a surprising deep run to the semis.
0.5 Wales to finish last in Grp A +140
0.3 Italy/Turkey straight +300
The winner of this group should have a nice draw to the semis. A matchup versus Grp C runner up will leave Holland/Austria/Ukraine in the Rd of 16 and a likely date with the Grp B winner in the quarters. Belgium is tailor made for the Italians and can expect another frustrating exit from a major tournament.
Projected Finish Grp A:
Italy 7
Turkey 6
Swiss 4 (qualify)
Wales 0
Continued success.
Group B:
For big tournaments, such as the EURO, I typically bounce my thoughts off a few sharp guys and we discuss our overall thoughts and impressions. In Grp A, we aligned, especially on the value on Italy and shared concerns with Wales. Group B, not so much. I expect Belgium to easily win this group, Finland to surprise, the Danes to be slightly overvalued and Russia to be a disaster.
The consensus agreed that I’m undervaluing both Denmark and Russia and wildly overvaluing Finland. I may be upside down on this group and will pass on any futures at the moment. Belgium’s odds to win the group have declined based on KDB and the ever growing hype surrounding Denmark. The Danes to get all three matches at home, while Belgium does face both Denmark and Russia away. I still don’t see Belgium having any issue with this group, even without KDB.
Belgium at -120 to win the group seems like a steal. I was also considering Belgium/Denmark at +200, Russia last place (+225) or Finland to qualify (+250), but I’ll pass for now.
Projected Finish:
Belgium 9
Denmark 4
Finland 4 (qualify)
Russia 0
Continued success.
For big tournaments, such as the EURO, I typically bounce my thoughts off a few sharp guys and we discuss our overall thoughts and impressions. In Grp A, we aligned, especially on the value on Italy and shared concerns with Wales. Group B, not so much. I expect Belgium to easily win this group, Finland to surprise, the Danes to be slightly overvalued and Russia to be a disaster.
The consensus agreed that I’m undervaluing both Denmark and Russia and wildly overvaluing Finland. I may be upside down on this group and will pass on any futures at the moment. Belgium’s odds to win the group have declined based on KDB and the ever growing hype surrounding Denmark. The Danes to get all three matches at home, while Belgium does face both Denmark and Russia away. I still don’t see Belgium having any issue with this group, even without KDB.
Belgium at -120 to win the group seems like a steal. I was also considering Belgium/Denmark at +200, Russia last place (+225) or Finland to qualify (+250), but I’ll pass for now.
Projected Finish:
Belgium 9
Denmark 4
Finland 4 (qualify)
Russia 0
Continued success.
Group C:
Group C may be the most competitive group from top to bottom in the entire tournament along with Group F. This may also feature the greatest variance in final positioning.
During our discussions on Group C we were all over the place, but were in agreement that the Dutch at -220 to win the group is severely over priced. I’m not sold on the Dutch resurgence as much as the masses appear to be. They are certainly improving, but this isn’t the same powerhouse we are used to.
Ukraine/Austria are complete wild cards. Either one of the sides could make a surge or fall flat on their faces. The Ukrainians were all the blaze a year or so ago, but their form has really slipped. Austria was everyone’s darling in 2016 and was abysmal. This team is capable of some strong performances, it is utterly inconsistent. Either side could realistically end up anywhere in this group and it wouldn’t be shocking.
N Macedonia is widely considered the weakest side in the tournament, but I suspect they may have a little more life than people are giving them credit for. While they may be headed for a last place finish, they won’t go pointless IMO and they could even sneak into third if we get a meltdown from either Ukraine or Austria.
0.3 Ukraine to win Grp. C +525
0.1 Ukraine/Austria +2500
Projected Finish:
Ukraine 5
Austria 5
Dutch 4 (qualify)
N Macedonia 1
Continued success.
Group C may be the most competitive group from top to bottom in the entire tournament along with Group F. This may also feature the greatest variance in final positioning.
During our discussions on Group C we were all over the place, but were in agreement that the Dutch at -220 to win the group is severely over priced. I’m not sold on the Dutch resurgence as much as the masses appear to be. They are certainly improving, but this isn’t the same powerhouse we are used to.
Ukraine/Austria are complete wild cards. Either one of the sides could make a surge or fall flat on their faces. The Ukrainians were all the blaze a year or so ago, but their form has really slipped. Austria was everyone’s darling in 2016 and was abysmal. This team is capable of some strong performances, it is utterly inconsistent. Either side could realistically end up anywhere in this group and it wouldn’t be shocking.
N Macedonia is widely considered the weakest side in the tournament, but I suspect they may have a little more life than people are giving them credit for. While they may be headed for a last place finish, they won’t go pointless IMO and they could even sneak into third if we get a meltdown from either Ukraine or Austria.
0.3 Ukraine to win Grp. C +525
0.1 Ukraine/Austria +2500
Projected Finish:
Ukraine 5
Austria 5
Dutch 4 (qualify)
N Macedonia 1
Continued success.
Group D:
Group D should be England’s for the taking, but the English can botch a seemingly easy group with the best of them. However, I just don’t see that happening with the Three Lions this go around, especially playing all three group matches at Wembley. Assuming England does claim first as expected, their reward is a Rd of 16 matchup with the runners up of Group F, the group of death. England will face France/Germany/Portugal in the Rd of 16 and face another early, disappointing exit from a major tournament.
Croatia’s form has been extremely questionable of late, but the talent/experience is there. I suspect that should be enough to carry them to second in a group that features Czech/Scotland sides that are far from dominant.
Scotland/Czech should be the battle for third and a possibility at advancing. One of these sides could find their way into second if the Croatian slide continues. Scotland does have the luxury of facing both Croatia and the Czech’s in Glasgow.
I’m not as high on the Czech Rep as many others, but they have been getting a little love from a few resources I trust, so maybe I’m misreading this side’s chances. Could England truly play for second?
Not much here IMO.
Projected Finish:
England 7
Croatia 7
Scotland 3
Czech Rep 0
Group D should be England’s for the taking, but the English can botch a seemingly easy group with the best of them. However, I just don’t see that happening with the Three Lions this go around, especially playing all three group matches at Wembley. Assuming England does claim first as expected, their reward is a Rd of 16 matchup with the runners up of Group F, the group of death. England will face France/Germany/Portugal in the Rd of 16 and face another early, disappointing exit from a major tournament.
Croatia’s form has been extremely questionable of late, but the talent/experience is there. I suspect that should be enough to carry them to second in a group that features Czech/Scotland sides that are far from dominant.
Scotland/Czech should be the battle for third and a possibility at advancing. One of these sides could find their way into second if the Croatian slide continues. Scotland does have the luxury of facing both Croatia and the Czech’s in Glasgow.
I’m not as high on the Czech Rep as many others, but they have been getting a little love from a few resources I trust, so maybe I’m misreading this side’s chances. Could England truly play for second?
Not much here IMO.
Projected Finish:
England 7
Croatia 7
Scotland 3
Czech Rep 0
Group E:
Group E should have an excellent battle for 2-4, as Spain should take the top spot. The Spanish side is being a bit underrated heading into the tournament, IMO. Sure, this isn’t the Spain from a decade ago, but they are still very formidable and loaded with talent throughout the lineup, despite some questionable results of late. I fully expect them to coast to first in this group, but am not willing to lay the -250 price tag.
Sweden/Poland/Slovakia should be an absolute dog fight. I lean towards the Swedes for second, but ever so slightly. I’ve never really been high on the Polish team during the Lewandowski era. He’s an incredible player, but their lines always seem to be a bit off and the squad a bit overrated. Slovakia has some fight to them and could pull a surprise or two, but they are wildly inconsistent and have a few more holes than Sweden IMO.
This should be an incredibly competitive group and could become even tighter if Spain form continues to be lacking.
0.5 Spain/Sweden +225
0.5 Poland not to qualify +165
Projected Finish:
Spain 7
Sweden 4
Poland 3
Slovakia 3
Group E should have an excellent battle for 2-4, as Spain should take the top spot. The Spanish side is being a bit underrated heading into the tournament, IMO. Sure, this isn’t the Spain from a decade ago, but they are still very formidable and loaded with talent throughout the lineup, despite some questionable results of late. I fully expect them to coast to first in this group, but am not willing to lay the -250 price tag.
Sweden/Poland/Slovakia should be an absolute dog fight. I lean towards the Swedes for second, but ever so slightly. I’ve never really been high on the Polish team during the Lewandowski era. He’s an incredible player, but their lines always seem to be a bit off and the squad a bit overrated. Slovakia has some fight to them and could pull a surprise or two, but they are wildly inconsistent and have a few more holes than Sweden IMO.
This should be an incredibly competitive group and could become even tighter if Spain form continues to be lacking.
0.5 Spain/Sweden +225
0.5 Poland not to qualify +165
Projected Finish:
Spain 7
Sweden 4
Poland 3
Slovakia 3
Group F:
The group of death. France, Germany and Portugal are crammed into Group F, along with unlucky upstarts Hungary, who are ever improving and won’t roll over against these giants. This group features the defending champions of Europe and the last two world champions.
This one should be fun and I expect the giants to beat up on each other. I favor Portugal to get it done behind their strong defensive unit and talented, balanced roster. I’m kicking myself for missing the +700 that was available a few weeks ago, but I’ll still grab a piece at +450.
Much like Spain, the Germans are being completely overlooked for this tournament, which is a mistake. This isn’t the best German side, but they are still extremely capable and feature a roster loaded with talent. This team can make a deep run even if they finish further down the standing in Grp F.
France are the defending world champions and runners up in Europe. The French will be going for the double and are absolutely loaded with talent. However, I expect their overall performance will be deemed a bust with an exit in the quarters. They’ll have their moments for sure, but failing to make the semis as the favorite of the tournament will certainly disappoint the French faithful.
Hungary could take some points from somewhere and will push the big dogs, but their chances of qualifying are minimal.
0.5 Portugal +450
0.3 Portugal/France +700
Projected Finish:
Portugal 6
France 6
Germany 6
Hungary 0
The group of death. France, Germany and Portugal are crammed into Group F, along with unlucky upstarts Hungary, who are ever improving and won’t roll over against these giants. This group features the defending champions of Europe and the last two world champions.
This one should be fun and I expect the giants to beat up on each other. I favor Portugal to get it done behind their strong defensive unit and talented, balanced roster. I’m kicking myself for missing the +700 that was available a few weeks ago, but I’ll still grab a piece at +450.
Much like Spain, the Germans are being completely overlooked for this tournament, which is a mistake. This isn’t the best German side, but they are still extremely capable and feature a roster loaded with talent. This team can make a deep run even if they finish further down the standing in Grp F.
France are the defending world champions and runners up in Europe. The French will be going for the double and are absolutely loaded with talent. However, I expect their overall performance will be deemed a bust with an exit in the quarters. They’ll have their moments for sure, but failing to make the semis as the favorite of the tournament will certainly disappoint the French faithful.
Hungary could take some points from somewhere and will push the big dogs, but their chances of qualifying are minimal.
0.5 Portugal +450
0.3 Portugal/France +700
Projected Finish:
Portugal 6
France 6
Germany 6
Hungary 0
Turkey v Italy:
1.0 Italy -177
0.5 BTTS +146
0.5 Italy/Italy +140
0.3 Over 3, 3.5 +320
0.3 Italy -1.5 +170
0.1 Italy 3-1 +1600
I’m all in on the Italians, the side I expect to win the entire tournament. I expect them to easily take down a more competitive group than people are crediting. I don’t expect the Italians to claim all nine points, but they should be in a position where a single point from the final match clinches the group.
I am also high on the Turks and expect them to make a run to the quarters. Italy will be too much in the opener and I’m in the minority expecting some fireworks in this match. Most talking heads are predicting a tough, defensive, low scoring match. I expect the opposite. Look for youngsters Chiesa and Barella to transform the Italian attack. We already known Italy is strong defensively and in the middle of the field, but I expect the young duo to raise the Italians offense to a level we have seen from Italy in some time.
Best of luck with your action.
Continued success.
1.0 Italy -177
0.5 BTTS +146
0.5 Italy/Italy +140
0.3 Over 3, 3.5 +320
0.3 Italy -1.5 +170
0.1 Italy 3-1 +1600
I’m all in on the Italians, the side I expect to win the entire tournament. I expect them to easily take down a more competitive group than people are crediting. I don’t expect the Italians to claim all nine points, but they should be in a position where a single point from the final match clinches the group.
I am also high on the Turks and expect them to make a run to the quarters. Italy will be too much in the opener and I’m in the minority expecting some fireworks in this match. Most talking heads are predicting a tough, defensive, low scoring match. I expect the opposite. Look for youngsters Chiesa and Barella to transform the Italian attack. We already known Italy is strong defensively and in the middle of the field, but I expect the young duo to raise the Italians offense to a level we have seen from Italy in some time.
Best of luck with your action.
Continued success.
