EPL weekend of 10/30/05

[quantumleap]

Wigan pk and -0.5 -102 over Fulham (Pinnacle)
Wigan has won 8 out of their last 9 (including cup competition) and are at home.

Fulham/Wigan under 2.5 -141 (Carib)
Wigan has only given up 3 goals in 5 home matches.

Tottenham pk +111 over Arsenal (Pointbet)
Arsenal has been abysmal on the road.

Arsenal/Tottenham under 2.5 -141 (Carib)
Arsenal has scored 2 goals in 4 road matches.

Birmingham +136 over Everton 3-way bet 0.55 units (Pinnacle)
Everton/Birmingham draw +228 0.45 units (Pinnacle)
Everton has one win and one draw in 9 matches. This is a bet for Everton not to win.

Everton/Birmingham under 2.5 -149 (Carib)
Everton has not participated in a match that went over 2.5 in 9 EPL matches.

More later.

 

[quantumleap]

West Ham/Liverpool under 2.5 -133 (Ladbrokes)
Neither team scoring well home/away.

Aston Villa/Man City under 2.5 -126 (Pointbet)
Villa has scored 3 goals in 5 road matches while Man City has scored 6 goals in 5 home matches.

 

[Nylon]

I see a lotta unders.................why do you think their's are so many in EPL? Is it b/c their a lotta good talent/competition equal each other out? It reminds me a little of the NFL, when good teams like Patriots-Carolina play each other and it's usually low-scoring, not because the offenses suck, but b/c the talent level is equal.

 

[quantumleap]

I noticed that too Nylon. I'm not sure as to the reason for it. I do know that later in the season things will change and the average should go higher.

The league average is currentlly at 2.2 goals scored per match. I try to look for matches between teams that average below 2 goals per match that I can get odds better than -150. With those odds you can win 3 out of 5 bets and break even. By being selective in the teams you choose you can win more than 3 out of 5 and hence you come out ahead.

Believe it or not, I'm actually looking at some matches to go over this weekend. I'll keep you posted.

 

[MarkieMark+]

I like the Tottenham +111 pick especially since Henry will not play.

MM

 

[Nylon]

Henry not playing for Arsenal should make the UNDER an solid play
.... although Reyes, Ljunberg, & Campbell are back, forgive me for asking, but are any of them strikers/goal scorers?......Serious question, I have no idea! :lolBIG:

 

[quantumleap]

Henry not playing for Arsenal should make the UNDER an solid play
.... although Reyes, Ljunberg, & Campbell are back, forgive me for asking, but are any of them strikers/goal scorers?......Serious question, I have no idea! :lolBIG:

From soccernet.espn.go.com:

"Striker Jose Antonio Reyes and midfielder Freddie Ljungberg are fit again for the Spurs clash and centre-half Sol Campbell is set to face his old club. Alexander Hleb (knee) and Ashley Cole (foot) remain out."

 

[alfarac]

Nylon... The one Arsenal is counting on to score from those 3 is Reyes, he is going to act as a striker tomorrow, Ljunberg plays in an advanced role as a MF, Campbell is there rock solid defender... He also played in the beggining of his career at Tottenham, then switched teams... He is hated in Tottenham...

As for the game, the Under is the play for me, this is a city rivalry game... Thus making it a tough, physical game... Arsenal without Henry is a different team, though they play great, they have trouble scoring goals without him (Away they have scored only 2 goals)... Still I think Arsenal are a good technical team... They could still play very good soccer, and Tottenham will have troule filling the gap Edgar Davids, who is suspended for the game, will leave...

I see a 1-0 win either way... or a 1-1 draw... Watch out for Ljungberg, he's due a goal...

 

[quantumleap]

Nice post alfarac. Thanks for contributing your insight.

 

[alfarac]

quantumleap: thanks, lets hope we have a productive day tomorrow... Will watch closely those french picks of yours, rooting for Unders!!

GL all

 

[quantumleap]

Again we see select matches go under 2.5. We'll see how long this lasts.

Wigan 1, Fulham 0 +1.69
Tottenham 1, Arsenal 1 +0.70
Everton 1, Birmingham 0 -0.33
Liverpool 2, West Ham 0 +0.75

One more match to go.

 

[quantumleap]

Man City 2, Villa 1 with time remaining so this one goes over already.

This weekend's series: +1.81

All soccer series record: 13-1

All soccer YTD: +15.89