EPL weekend of 10/23/05 (YTD: +3.22)

[quantumleap]

Birmingham/Blackburn under 2.5 -143 (Intertops)
Both teams have scored 4 goals in 4 matches while giving up 4 goals.

Blackburn -0.5 -119 over Birmingham (Pointbet)
Blackburn the much better team here and are at home. Birmingham's only victory on the road was at West Brom.

Wigan/Aston Villa under 2.5 -143 (several books)
Each of these teams is averaging 1 goal per contest.

Wigan +0.5 -111 over Aston Villa (Pointbet)
Wigan has won 5 out of their last 6. I think they can at least get a draw here.

Liverpool/Fulham under 2 and 2.5 -120 (Pinnacle)
Liverpool has scored 2 goals in 3 road matches while giving up only 2 goals on the road.

Tottenham +1 -128 over Man Utd. (Ladbrokes)
Tottenham has not lost on the road yet this year while Man Utd. has played conservatively at home. One goal is too much to give the second-place team in the league, even if it is at Old Trafford.

Charlton pk -104 over Portsmouth (Olympic)
Charlton has won 4 matches in a row on the road. They should be able to at least draw here with lowly Portsmouth.

 

[quantumleap]

Liverpool pk and -0.5 -113 over Fulham (Pointbet)
Liverpool is coming off a good showing against Anderlecht in the CL.

Charlton/Portsmouth under 2.5 -130 (betCRIS)
Portsmouth has scored 2 goals in 4 home matches.

Sunderland/Newcastle under 2.5 -133 (several books)
Sunderland has scored 2 goals in 4 road matches. Newcastle has scored 2 goals in 4 home matches.

 

[chriscol]

i agree with your addings and your charlton pk. not sure about the others.

BOL

 

[quantumleap]

Thanks for the feedback chris. It's looking good so far with Liverpool being the only loss.

 

[quantumleap]

Blackburn 2, Birmingham 0 +1.54
Wigan 2, Villa 0 +1.60
Fulham 2, Liverpool 0 -0.58
Tottenham 1, Man Utd. 1 +0.78
Charlton 2, Portsmouth 1 -0.04

So far this week: +3.30

Sunderland pending. More to come.

 

[quantumleap]

West Brom/Bolton under 2.5 -141 (Carib)
Bolton plays conservatively at home, scoring only 3 goals in 4 home matches. West Brom has scored only 1 goal in 4 road matches.

Chelsea -1 -133 over Everton (Olympic)
What can I say here? Chelsea has won by 2 or more goals in 6 out of their 9 EPL games. They have given up 1 goal in 4 road matches. Everton on the other hand has scored 1 goal in 8 matches and lie on the bottom of the league.

 

[alfarac]

Newcastle - Sunderland

Hey man, been following you guys for long, good pick on Tottenham, as I went for it too...

Im with you on Chelsea (a tie would be a shock to me), and on the WBA/Bolton UNDER (as the last 4 matchups between them have finished 1-1)


Got a question, what do you think about the Newcaslte/Sunderland game???


I was leaning towards Newcastle, but I see Michael Owen could not play, and without that guy, I dont think Newcastle could score, also Sunderland has been playing with lots of heart lately, what are your thoughts???

I might go a small amount on Sunderland and take the goal, as I believe they can pull off the draw at least...

 

[quantumleap]

Hey man, been following you guys for long, good pick on Tottenham, as I went for it too...

Im with you on Chelsea (a tie would be a shock to me), and on the WBA/Bolton UNDER (as the last 4 matchups between them have finished 1-1)


Got a question, what do you think about the Newcaslte/Sunderland game???


I was leaning towards Newcastle, but I see Michael Owen could not play, and without that guy, I dont think Newcastle could score, also Sunderland has been playing with lots of heart lately, what are your thoughts???

I might go a small amount on Sunderland and take the goal, as I believe they can pull off the draw at least...

I was looking at that one too. Since I believe it will be a rather low-scoring game I thought the +1 would be advantageous. I was rather gun-shy taking Sunderland on the road though.

Glad you cashed on the Tottenham match. We were rather lucky to get the goal on the free-kick.

I had heard that Owen was a probable start for this match. However, even if he does start his hamstring should still make a difference in his effort. I know my write-ups are rather simple, but I do really research these matches.

Good luck.

 

[alfarac]

yeah, you are probably right, after looking at it, the under seems like the better play, I am going sunderland under @-140, WBA under 2.5 @-140, also I am betting on the WBA/Bol draw @225.


BOL on Sunday...

 

[quantumleap]

Chelsea 1, Everton 1 -1.00
Newcastle 3, Sunderland 2 -1.00
Bolton 2, West Brom 0 +0.71

Series: +2.01
EPL YTD: +5.23

All series record: 11-0

Chelsea had something like 23 shots on goal to 4 for Everton. However, Everton scored their goal on a penalty shot. That's how it happens sometimes. We got a win yesterday on a penalty shot so sometimes these things even out.

Sunderland scored 2 goals in this road match compared to 2 goals in 4 previous. I'm getting the idea that the dynamic for the under may be changing as most trends do change. I'll be keeping an eye on it.

 

[Pelikan]

Great day in the EPL, Quantum !

Not the easiest of leagues to make money.

 

[quantumleap]

Great day in the EPL, Quantum !

Not the easiest of leagues to make money.

Thanks Pelikan. Saturday was a fun day. I lost a little bit on Sunday with that Chelsea mess.

Most things seem to be going according to plan so far this season. The thing that makes this a difficult league is when things start to change in the middle of the season. That's when they separate the men from the boys in the capping world.

I feel the French Ligue 1 may already be changing. I'll keep an eye on both.