EPL for the weekend of 11/6/05

quantumleap · Oct 31, 2005

Pinnacle just came out with their reduced-margin prices and I find a couple of them ridiculous.

Middlesbrough pk and +0.5 -120 over Everton (Pinnacle)
Middlesbrough just beat perennial powerhouse Man Utd. last weekend by a score of 4-1. Everton used to be on the bottom but recently climbed into 3rd from bottom by virtue of a 1-0 win on the road against 2nd-from-bottom Birmingham. The reason Everton is not still on bottom is because they have 2 victories of 1-0. They have only scored 3 goals in the league and have not won at home! The only possible obstacle to 'Boro not getting at least a draw is that they play a UEFA Cup match on Thursday and this match is on Sunday (not Saturday as Pinnacle is listing it).

Wigan pk and +0.5 -117 over Portsmouth
Here is another one I can't believe! Wigan has won 7 matches in a row (I have been cleaning up betting on this team) and they are playing against a team that has not won at home and they are getting points! Take the money and run.

quantumleap · Nov 3, 2005

I realize sometimes I write long paragraphs but I feel I must reiterate what I wrote in my previous post in this thread. You are getting + points for going against 2 teams that have never won at home. Portsmouth has scored 3 goals in 5 home matches and Everton has scored 1 goal in 4 home matches.

That being said, here is another pick-
West Ham -0.5 -104 over West Brom (Pinnacle)
West Brom has scored 1 goal in 5 road matches while giving up 9. West Ham has done well at home scoring 10 in 5 while only allowing 4 goals at home.

Charlton pk and +0.5 over Birmingham (Pinnacle)
Another much better team getting + points simply for being on the road. However Charlton has not lost or tied on the road. They are 5-0-0. Charlton is still stinging after losing at home to Bolton 0-1 last weekend which knocked them from 2nd place. Their leading scorer Darren Bent was out of this match with a virus but should return this weekend. This will give them the motivation to win this match. Birmingham has lost 5 out of their 6 home matches.

Arsenal -1.5 -124 over Sunderland (Pinnacle)
Arsenal won in the Champions League 3-0 over Sparta. Thierry Henry is back for Arsenal and they are at home so they should do well again as they have won all 5 home matches while losing none and tying none. The -1.5 handicap will scare away some but this should not be a problem for an Arsenal team hitting on all cylinders playing at home.

scripter · Nov 3, 2005

Hi QL,
very nice picks and have to say like u watch me closely cause I just thinking about this 5 picksand Newcastle - Birmingham to choose for my weekend EPL card :toast:
And my decesion is
West Ham -0.5 over West Brom
Charlton pk and +0.5 over Birmingham
Wigan pk and +0.5 over Portsmouth
Newcastle +0.5 over Birmingham
will avoid everton and arsenal.
SO GL MAN :103631605

quantumleap · Nov 3, 2005

scripter:

I was looking at Newcastle as well but thought they had not scored much this year. I see that Birmingham gives up a lot of goals though. Where are you getting +0.5? That's a good line.

Just to point out an error of mine, Charlton is playing Blackburn, not Birmingham as I had posted. I don't know if Pinnacle made an error in listing it that way (they sometimes do) or whether I made the mistake in posting it. The bet still stands..

Iwinsometimes · Nov 3, 2005

I'm loving the Arsenal Pick, Henry is back healthy and they had a good showing against Sparta. Way to go to Van Persie for his two goals against the prague.

iwin

quantumleap · Nov 3, 2005

Iwinsometimes said:
I'm loving the Arsenal Pick, Henry is back healthy and they had a good showing against Sparta. Way to go to Van Persie for his two goals against the prague.

iwin

I believe Henry is worth 1 goal per game by being in. He may not always score a goal per game but he sure attracts defenders away from other Arsenal strikers.

scripter · Nov 3, 2005

oh sorry obvious mistake
line should be newcastle -0.5

glta

alfarac · Nov 4, 2005

Love the Arsenal pick as other fellow posters, with Henry in there, Arsenal should roll and try to get their league campaign on track....

But I am not sure with Middlesborough pick... They always tend to come flat to the games they play after UEFA Cup matches... Also I do not like that they kicked Man Utd ass last time, as they are pretty inconsistent team... And finally I am not sure they can beat an Everton team that has now got a couple of good results... I would probably stay away from that one...

chriscol · Nov 4, 2005

i am also on wigan, played them almost every week as you did, so let'S go with them again...what's even more profitable is to combine their wins with the under...it's like last year's version of everton...not taken seroius by the linemakers and winning every week 1-0

MarkieMark+ · Nov 4, 2005

originally posted by quantumleap
Charlton pk and +0.5 over Birmingham (Pinnacle)
Another much better team getting + points simply for being on the road. However Charlton has not lost or tied on the road. They are 5-0-0. Charlton is still stinging after losing at home to Bolton 0-1 last weekend which knocked them from 2nd place. Their leading scorer Darren Bent was out of this match with a virus but should return this weekend. This will give them the motivation to win this match. Birmingham has lost 5 out of their 6 home matches.

Charlton is playing away at BLACKBURN this weekend and Birmingham City is playing host to NEWCASTLE.

MM

quantumleap · Nov 4, 2005

Markie Mark said:
Charlton is playing away at BLACKBURN this weekend and Birmingham City is playing host to NEWCASTLE.

MM

Thanks MM. I had noted this in an earlier post but it's good to have here a second time for those that didn't catch it in the middle of my posts.

MarkieMark+ · Nov 4, 2005

Any opinions on Liverpool vs. Aston Villa?

Olympic is offering LIVERPOOL at +120 and Pinnacle have them at +125 against a struggling Aston Villa side. This looks awfully tempting and I suspect a lot of people will be jumping all over this, especially with Liverpool's 3-0 romp over Anderlecht still fresh in everybody's mind. Much like Chelsea's line against Benfica this past week, this looks too good to be true.

Liverpool are winless on the road but have 3 Draws from 4 games and Aston Villa only have 1 win at home from 5 games. As unsavory as it seems, I think the best bet might be ASTON VILLA (+0.5) -140 from Olympic. Anybody have some thoughts on this?

MM

quantumleap · Nov 4, 2005

Markie Mark said:
Any opinions on Liverpool vs. Aston Villa?

Olympic is offering LIVERPOOL at +120 and Pinnacle have them at +125 against a struggling Aston Villa side. This looks awfully tempting and I suspect a lot of people will be jumping all over this, especially with Liverpool's 3-0 romp over Anderlecht still fresh in everybody's mind. Much like Chelsea's line against Benfica this past week, this looks too good to be true.

Liverpool are winless on the road but have 3 Draws from 4 games and Aston Villa only have 1 win at home from 5 games. As unsavory as it seems, I think the best bet might be ASTON VILLA (+0.5) -140 from Olympic. Anybody have some thoughts on this?

MM

I'm almost tempted to take the over 2 at Olympic due to Liverpool's recent successes. However they are on the road and have only scored 2 goals on the road all season.

MarkieMark+ · Nov 4, 2005

Here is how I see things for Saturday. Play it or fade it - it is up to you!

ENGLISH PREMIERSHIP
WEST HAM UNITED (-0.5) -103 over West Brom
FULHAM (pk) -115 over Manchester City
NEWCASTLE (-0.5) -150 over Birmingham City
ASTON VILLA (+0.5) -140 over Liverpool
BLACKBURN (pk) -130 over Charlton
PORTSMOUTH (pk) -160 over Wigan

MM

quantumleap · Nov 5, 2005

The Charlton bet should be pk and +0.5 -120 over Blackburn. I left out the vig in my earlier post.

Good luck.

quantumleap · Nov 5, 2005

It's strange how 1 goal can turn a record from 1-2 to 2-1. Sunderland scored a goal to bring their match to within 2-1 with Arsenal. Thierry Henry scored another goal with a few minutes left to make it 3-1 and make the bet a winner.

West Ham 1, West Brom 0 +0.96
Blackburn 4, Charlton 1 -1.00
Arsenal 3, Sunderland 1 +0.81

One more to go today and one tomorrow. Maybe more later.

quantumleap · Nov 5, 2005

Wigan wins their 8th in a row.

Wigan 2, Portsmouth 0 +0.85

Net for the day: +1.62

quantumleap · Nov 5, 2005

Chelsea pk and -0.5 +100 over Man Utd. (Pinnacle)
I have to go with this team here. Even after they suffered a draw at home and a loss at Real Betis in Champions League play. One of the reasons I am taking this team is because of the very poor play of Man Utd. They have lost 4-1 to Middlesbrough and 1-0 to Lille in Champions Play.

This match is always played hard by both clubs. Recent matchups have been defensive. However, Chelsea has done it for me for most of the season. I see no reason not to take them here against a struggling Man Utd. team.

HinesWard86 · Nov 6, 2005

Last real chance of anyone putting up a fight against Chelsea comes in this game. If Chelsea wins, it is no longer 97% over but 100% over

chriscol · Nov 6, 2005

it is 100 % over, doesnt matter what happened today (besides our lovely wigan continues to bring us cash with another amazing 27 wins in a row :suomi: