EPL for 12/14/05

quantumleap · Dec 14, 2005

West Ham/Everton under 2.5 -149 2 units (Carib)
Everton has gone under 2.5 only once in their 15 matches in the EPL this season. 1 in 15! They have scored 3 goals in 6 home matches while West Ham has scored 9 goals in 8 road matches.

Wigan +1.5 -125 over Man Utd. (10bet)
Wigan has only lost by more than 1 goal once this season to a red-hot Liverpool team in Liverpool. They lost to Chelsea last week by 1 goal at Chelsea. Man Utd. is in disarray (again!) after losing out of the CL and drawing with Everton at home last weekend.

joeyfitzclick · Dec 14, 2005

Wigam + 1.5 -145 DSI

Everton +105

quantumleap · Dec 14, 2005

Man Utd. is leading 4-0 after 77' so I'll throw in the towel here.

Everton and West Ham have gone over 2 1/2.

Net for the series: -2.00

I may bet Everton under again but I do believe I will be taking a break from the EPL.

chriscol · Dec 15, 2005

dont do that..just a bad day...we need your input here...:toast:

but watching the mu game...i think they are a ahead of a good run..the team seems to come together..like : everybody is against us, now we show the world how good we are. they looked completely different from their attitude than in recent matches.

quantumleap · Dec 15, 2005

chriscol said:
dont do that..just a bad day...we need your input here...:toast:

but watching the mu game...i think they are a ahead of a good run..the team seems to come together..like : everybody is against us, now we show the world how good we are. they looked completely different from their attitude than in recent matches.

Thanks for the words of encouragement. However, I noticed this same thing happening last year about this time and the year before as well. I have a tendency to bet trends and the trends that are valid for the first part of the year change about this time every year.

As far as Man U. goes, it's difficult to know when this team will have a crisis and when they will get things together. There are very few teams I've followed that have had such a split personality.

I won't be out for long, just taking a break to see which direction this league is taking.

ddarkside · Dec 15, 2005

quantumleap said:
Thanks for the words of encouragement. However, I noticed this same thing happening last year about this time and the year before as well. I have a tendency to bet trends and the trends that are valid for the first part of the year change about this time every year.

As far as Man U. goes, it's difficult to know when this team will have a crisis and when they will get things together. There are very few teams I've followed that have had such a split personality.

I won't be out for long, just taking a break to see which direction this league is taking.

If i can give you an advice, take more attention at the odds (many time you seem to be on the right side, but not with right odds...and in the long run it's better to be on wrong side with higher odds...imho)

For trends you are right, this is a part of the year where many teams seems to have a "crisis" (think it's a phisical reason, not psycological)...for example i'm expekting Juventus (all the Capello's team had a crisis in this part of the year in the past championships) to lose some point till the end of January (and i'm ready to bet against them :suomi:

)

After this, keep up the good work, very appreciated (in particular the analysis you do for every of your picks)...let's go cash all toghether :toast:

quantumleap · Dec 15, 2005

ddarkside said:
If i can give you an advice, take more attention at the odds (many time you seem to be on the right side, but not with right odds...and in the long run it's better to be on wrong side with higher odds...imho)

For trends you are right, this is a part of the year where many teams seems to have a "crisis" (think it's a phisical reason, not psycological)...for example i'm expekting Juventus (all the Capello's team had a crisis in this part of the year in the past championships) to lose some point till the end of January (and i'm ready to bet against them )

After this, keep up the good work, very appreciated (in particular the analysis you do for every of your picks)...let's go cash all toghether :toast:

Thanks ddarkside. When you say pay more attention to the odds do you mean the spread or the price I get for the spread?

I go to betbrain.com for each match I bet. Every price and every book I put on every post are actual bets I make. I get the best price from the books I have accounts with by going to betbrain.com to see which book has the best price at the time.

Or is this not what you meant?

ddarkside · Dec 15, 2005

quantumleap said:
Thanks ddarkside. When you say pay more attention to the odds do you mean the spread or the price I get for the spread?

I go to betbrain.com for each match I bet. Every price and every book I put on every post are actual bets I make. I get the best price from the books I have accounts with by going to betbrain.com to see which book has the best price at the time.

Or is this not what you meant?

I mean the price, but sometime it could be also the spread...i don't like the over under 2,5 lower than 1,80/1,70 i always prefer to shop a worse spread but at higher odds...for example prefer under 2,25 at 1,95 instead of under 2,50 at 1,70... when i don't like the worse spread and the good one has price too low i prefer to stay away even if i like very much this bet.
I think it also very hard to beat the market without book with very low vig in the over/under (and only asian have except o pinnacle but not in every league)...i'm talking about pointbet or some other asian (i've started a thread but no answer :sad3: ). And it's also hard to beat in asian handicap market without these book (you have more chanches to win following the moves in asian books and shopping 1x2 line before the move than shopping asian handicap at book with high vig)
Hoping it's understendable because i've it clear in my mind but it's difficult for me to explain in english

quantumleap · Dec 15, 2005

ddarkside said:
I mean the price, but sometime it could be also the spread...i don't like the over under 2,5 lower than 1,80/1,70 i always prefer to shop a worse spread but at higher odds...for example prefer under 2,25 at 1,95 instead of under 2,50 at 1,70... when i don't like the worse spread and the good one has price too low i prefer to stay away even if i like very much this bet.
I think it also very hard to beat the market without book with very low vig in the over/under (and only asian have except o pinnacle but not in every league)...i'm talking about pointbet or some other asian (i've started a thread but no answer :sad3: ). And it's also hard to beat in asian handicap market without these book (you have more chanches to win following the moves in asian books and shopping 1x2 line before the move than shopping asian handicap at book with high vig)
Hoping it's understendable because i've it clear in my mind but it's difficult for me to explain in english

I understand exactly what you are saying here ddarkside. It's hard for me to get action at Asian books because I reside in the US. I am able to get an account at PointBet through a Canadian friend. I send him money and he deposits it in Neteller from his Canadian bank account.

As far as the 2,5 versus 2,25 I guess I prefer the 2,5. Maybe I'm paranoid but I've seen so many own goals (as happened in the Everton match yesterday) to cause these to push at 2, thereby losing half my bet. Recently I have been staying away from the over/under bets except in the case of teams like Everton who have only had 2 matches over 2,5. Teams like that tell me that odds below 1,80/1,70 would be profitable.

Again, thanks for the input.