Taken from the website, www.elitesportsinvesting.com For additional analysis of tonight's total, plus complimentary plays througout the week, check the complimentary line (412)734-8435.
UCLA vs. Florida
Play UCLA plus the points
Both teams have ridden the strength of their defenses down the stretch to get to this national title game. In their last 10 games, Florida has allowed 60 ppg on 36% shooting, and UCLA 53 ppg on 38% shooting. UCLA has really turned it up on that side of the floor since their embarassing first half performance against Gonzaga where they trailed 44-29 at the half. Since then in 5 halves of play they have allowed 119 pts! This came against 3 teams that averaged 80, 80, and 74 ppg on the season! Their defense is very disruptive on the perimeter as they have allowed teams to make less than a third of their 3 pt. shots on the season, on only 14 attempts per game. In fact, during the tourney UCLA's perimeter defense has been unbreakable as they have allowed only 18% from downtown! They are also among the nation's best in keeping teams off of the offensive glass, allowing bout 8 offensive rebounds per game. They do a great job of being physical as well as playing fundamentally, and forcing the wrong person to both handle and take the shot. On both ends of the court, UCLA has really improved as it has gotten healthier. The last month is really the only time this year that Mata, Bozeman, Hollins, and a healthy Farmar have been on the court together and the results have spoken for themselves. Also note that this is a team that had to learn to play without Josh Shipp early on.
It will take a great defense to beat this Florida team that comes in averaging a nation's best 50% from the field. Florida is also great at getting to the foul line (22 att per game) and converting (74%), and they will need that part of their offense tonight, because UCLA simply does not allow good looks from 3. We already stated how well their defense has played during conf. tourney and NCAA tourney play, but we're not sure the Gators have faced the quality of offenses and for that matter, overall teams that UCLA has, especially the last couple of games. Villanova, the only team of Florida's last 3 opponents that I consider top 10-12 quality, was extremely tired and died by the 3 point attempt as many perimeter teams do in a dome setting. George Mason, while a nice story, and certainly deserving, was not in UF's league talent wise. The same could probably be said about Georgetown who probably should have beaten the Gators if not for late missed wide open shots, and some shaky officiating. Also note that teams with length and athleticism that block shots, and make the game as slow and ugly as possible like Georgetown and South Carolina have given the Gators fits all season long. UCLA certainly fits that bill. The Bruins also have multiple players at the 4-5 slots to contend with the Gators future NBA big men, Noah and Horford, and in their last 2 games, have more than neutralized Memphis' Dorsey and Williams, as well as LSU's Davis and Thomas. Florida's duo are probably the most well rounded of that bunch, but UCLA has proven it can more than hold its own inside.
It's not that I don't like or respect UF's team and what they have accomplished, it's that I think UCLA is simply on a whole other level right now. I believe they have been underrated because of their injuries and East Coast bias, and that they have as much basketball IQ and team-first attitude as any in recent memory. That is no doubt a reflection of their Head Coach, one of the nation's best, Ben Howland. I rate him the edge over Billy Donovan, and that cannot be understated in a game of this magnitude. Memphis, LSU, and Gonzaga were 3 very good teams, and since the second half of the Gonzaga game, those teams were simply dominated by the Bruins. UCLA will make this game as ugly as possible, and note that they are a perfect 8-0 SU when the Over/Under line is l29 or lower, while the Gators are only 1-4$ when they fail to hit 70 points. With the expected pace based on the fact that Howland knows his team can't get up and down the court with UF, the Gators may get stuck in the quicksand, and the emotional Brewer, Noah, and Horford may become frustrated. One final edge for the Bruins is experience as seniors Hollins and Bozeman have really played inspired, well-rounded games, and have been a fallback for the Bruins when their young guards have struggled.
A quick whistle and UCLA's inconsistency at the free throw line can defintely hurt us here, there is no doubt about that. However, with the strength and diversity of their their recent opponents, along with coaching and matchup edges, I believe the wrong team is favored here. UCLA 63-58
UCLA vs. Florida
Play UCLA plus the points
Both teams have ridden the strength of their defenses down the stretch to get to this national title game. In their last 10 games, Florida has allowed 60 ppg on 36% shooting, and UCLA 53 ppg on 38% shooting. UCLA has really turned it up on that side of the floor since their embarassing first half performance against Gonzaga where they trailed 44-29 at the half. Since then in 5 halves of play they have allowed 119 pts! This came against 3 teams that averaged 80, 80, and 74 ppg on the season! Their defense is very disruptive on the perimeter as they have allowed teams to make less than a third of their 3 pt. shots on the season, on only 14 attempts per game. In fact, during the tourney UCLA's perimeter defense has been unbreakable as they have allowed only 18% from downtown! They are also among the nation's best in keeping teams off of the offensive glass, allowing bout 8 offensive rebounds per game. They do a great job of being physical as well as playing fundamentally, and forcing the wrong person to both handle and take the shot. On both ends of the court, UCLA has really improved as it has gotten healthier. The last month is really the only time this year that Mata, Bozeman, Hollins, and a healthy Farmar have been on the court together and the results have spoken for themselves. Also note that this is a team that had to learn to play without Josh Shipp early on.
It will take a great defense to beat this Florida team that comes in averaging a nation's best 50% from the field. Florida is also great at getting to the foul line (22 att per game) and converting (74%), and they will need that part of their offense tonight, because UCLA simply does not allow good looks from 3. We already stated how well their defense has played during conf. tourney and NCAA tourney play, but we're not sure the Gators have faced the quality of offenses and for that matter, overall teams that UCLA has, especially the last couple of games. Villanova, the only team of Florida's last 3 opponents that I consider top 10-12 quality, was extremely tired and died by the 3 point attempt as many perimeter teams do in a dome setting. George Mason, while a nice story, and certainly deserving, was not in UF's league talent wise. The same could probably be said about Georgetown who probably should have beaten the Gators if not for late missed wide open shots, and some shaky officiating. Also note that teams with length and athleticism that block shots, and make the game as slow and ugly as possible like Georgetown and South Carolina have given the Gators fits all season long. UCLA certainly fits that bill. The Bruins also have multiple players at the 4-5 slots to contend with the Gators future NBA big men, Noah and Horford, and in their last 2 games, have more than neutralized Memphis' Dorsey and Williams, as well as LSU's Davis and Thomas. Florida's duo are probably the most well rounded of that bunch, but UCLA has proven it can more than hold its own inside.
It's not that I don't like or respect UF's team and what they have accomplished, it's that I think UCLA is simply on a whole other level right now. I believe they have been underrated because of their injuries and East Coast bias, and that they have as much basketball IQ and team-first attitude as any in recent memory. That is no doubt a reflection of their Head Coach, one of the nation's best, Ben Howland. I rate him the edge over Billy Donovan, and that cannot be understated in a game of this magnitude. Memphis, LSU, and Gonzaga were 3 very good teams, and since the second half of the Gonzaga game, those teams were simply dominated by the Bruins. UCLA will make this game as ugly as possible, and note that they are a perfect 8-0 SU when the Over/Under line is l29 or lower, while the Gators are only 1-4$ when they fail to hit 70 points. With the expected pace based on the fact that Howland knows his team can't get up and down the court with UF, the Gators may get stuck in the quicksand, and the emotional Brewer, Noah, and Horford may become frustrated. One final edge for the Bruins is experience as seniors Hollins and Bozeman have really played inspired, well-rounded games, and have been a fallback for the Bruins when their young guards have struggled.
A quick whistle and UCLA's inconsistency at the free throw line can defintely hurt us here, there is no doubt about that. However, with the strength and diversity of their their recent opponents, along with coaching and matchup edges, I believe the wrong team is favored here. UCLA 63-58
