Liverpool -0.5 @ 1.90
Not much to write about it as everything is already discussed. Liverpool needs the win and since the terrible start in the ECL with two losses they are really focused and seemed on a mission, which brought them in the position to have a "final" today.
For me there are two teams in ECL that are absolutely overachieving in this competition ..that s Marseille and Rosenborg (more to that later).
If you look at Marseille: they are 13th in France and that is definetely not a strong league..what have they done in ECL?? they have won at home vs. Istanbul (not a sign of outstanding quality for me), they won at Liverpool (crazy game as it happens sometimes in football). Besides that surprising start they have shown nothing and produced similar result to what they do in the domestic league...so Liverpool with a nice win.
Porto- Istanburl: Istanbul +1,+1.5 @ 1.92
i can copy Kid s write up on that. Porto needs a point (maybe not even that). they are a team that has prooven in past that can play for a required result...to be absolutely safe that would be a one goal win for them. i dont expect them put any efford in offense if they somehow take the lead. this looks like a 1-0 or 1-1 to me.
Madrid- Lazio: REal -1,-1.5 @ 1.82 and over 2.5,3 @ 1.90 !! 2 units!!
Exciting group..everybody can still make it. Real needs a draw, but they are not a team that can play for it. they will go for the quick kill. i expect at least 2 goals from them..Lazio is a bit scary, because they are not a great over team, but then again,they have to go for the win here and show some kind of offense. also their ECL games had 2,4,3,3,3 goals. the big thing here is theat there was always scoring by both teams in these games and that is always the setup i look for when betting overs.
even if they are not a powerhouse, who can not score vs. Real?
A 3-1 would be nice.
Piräus- Bremen: Bremen pk @1.95 and over 2.5,3 @1.87 !! 2 units!!
similar situation here. i rate Bremen as the better team so i take a shot with them to get the win here that they need (at least it s a pk so there is some cover for the draw). the real big play is the over and as i said already in the weekend s Bundesliga write up i ts Real and Bremen you can almost blindly bet overs. They simply cannot sit back and defend. team is not made for that..perfectly shown in weekend 3-4 loss at Hannover. Today they need the wins which almost secures that they score and probably twice. the only chance i see for Piräus is that they also score at least twice, which is alway possible againt Bremen. Piräus games had 2,4,6,0 (vs. REal with plenty of chances) ,3 goals and Bremen had 3,4,3,3,5....tell me one reason why this should end under?? if it looks easy sometimes it is.
Schalke- Rosenborg : Schalke -1 @ 1.6 !! 2 units!!
it s not the game that gives me headache here it the line, which is basically -1.5
Schalke needs a win to advance and i have no doubt they will get it. They are the overall better team and Rosenborg is somehow a fluke in this ECL group.
ROsenborg got an undeserved draw at Chelsea and than won twice vs. Valencia. to be honest that s not impressive for me at all. Valencia is more than a total mess this season. When it mattered Schalke went to Trondheim and won fairl easy 2-0 and Chelsea desroyed them 4-0. Rosenborg finished 5th in norway league which also led to firing of the coach (despite the ECL success). that really shows to me the neam is not good this year. the other big factor was shown in last game vs. Chelsea. there season is over since about 6 weeks.that s a major disadvantage when playing on that level. OK, so Schalke will win.
BUT: Schalke struggle to put teams away lately in Bundesliga. You will see the 90 min conctant pressure they usually show in home game and i have no doubt that they will score the illusive goal, but they struggle with scoring at the moment. it might be just a 1-0..with Schalke it s like either tey are hot, score and early goal and it will be possibly 2 or 3-0 at HT or they will grind out a 1-0.
I would take the risk at -1.5, but i dont want to sit infront of TV tonight being happy that i predicted the game right, but still lost the bet with a one goal win.
i will also parlay them on ML with REal heavy.
Other point of interest Kristajic and Rakitic will not play tonight as they are internally suspended for disziplinary reason (too late in a disco on saturday)...should not make a difference to the win, but again ??? for a blow out.
BOL to all
Not much to write about it as everything is already discussed. Liverpool needs the win and since the terrible start in the ECL with two losses they are really focused and seemed on a mission, which brought them in the position to have a "final" today.
For me there are two teams in ECL that are absolutely overachieving in this competition ..that s Marseille and Rosenborg (more to that later).
If you look at Marseille: they are 13th in France and that is definetely not a strong league..what have they done in ECL?? they have won at home vs. Istanbul (not a sign of outstanding quality for me), they won at Liverpool (crazy game as it happens sometimes in football). Besides that surprising start they have shown nothing and produced similar result to what they do in the domestic league...so Liverpool with a nice win.
Porto- Istanburl: Istanbul +1,+1.5 @ 1.92
i can copy Kid s write up on that. Porto needs a point (maybe not even that). they are a team that has prooven in past that can play for a required result...to be absolutely safe that would be a one goal win for them. i dont expect them put any efford in offense if they somehow take the lead. this looks like a 1-0 or 1-1 to me.
Madrid- Lazio: REal -1,-1.5 @ 1.82 and over 2.5,3 @ 1.90 !! 2 units!!
Exciting group..everybody can still make it. Real needs a draw, but they are not a team that can play for it. they will go for the quick kill. i expect at least 2 goals from them..Lazio is a bit scary, because they are not a great over team, but then again,they have to go for the win here and show some kind of offense. also their ECL games had 2,4,3,3,3 goals. the big thing here is theat there was always scoring by both teams in these games and that is always the setup i look for when betting overs.
even if they are not a powerhouse, who can not score vs. Real?
A 3-1 would be nice.
Piräus- Bremen: Bremen pk @1.95 and over 2.5,3 @1.87 !! 2 units!!
similar situation here. i rate Bremen as the better team so i take a shot with them to get the win here that they need (at least it s a pk so there is some cover for the draw). the real big play is the over and as i said already in the weekend s Bundesliga write up i ts Real and Bremen you can almost blindly bet overs. They simply cannot sit back and defend. team is not made for that..perfectly shown in weekend 3-4 loss at Hannover. Today they need the wins which almost secures that they score and probably twice. the only chance i see for Piräus is that they also score at least twice, which is alway possible againt Bremen. Piräus games had 2,4,6,0 (vs. REal with plenty of chances) ,3 goals and Bremen had 3,4,3,3,5....tell me one reason why this should end under?? if it looks easy sometimes it is.
Schalke- Rosenborg : Schalke -1 @ 1.6 !! 2 units!!
it s not the game that gives me headache here it the line, which is basically -1.5
Schalke needs a win to advance and i have no doubt they will get it. They are the overall better team and Rosenborg is somehow a fluke in this ECL group.
ROsenborg got an undeserved draw at Chelsea and than won twice vs. Valencia. to be honest that s not impressive for me at all. Valencia is more than a total mess this season. When it mattered Schalke went to Trondheim and won fairl easy 2-0 and Chelsea desroyed them 4-0. Rosenborg finished 5th in norway league which also led to firing of the coach (despite the ECL success). that really shows to me the neam is not good this year. the other big factor was shown in last game vs. Chelsea. there season is over since about 6 weeks.that s a major disadvantage when playing on that level. OK, so Schalke will win.
BUT: Schalke struggle to put teams away lately in Bundesliga. You will see the 90 min conctant pressure they usually show in home game and i have no doubt that they will score the illusive goal, but they struggle with scoring at the moment. it might be just a 1-0..with Schalke it s like either tey are hot, score and early goal and it will be possibly 2 or 3-0 at HT or they will grind out a 1-0.
I would take the risk at -1.5, but i dont want to sit infront of TV tonight being happy that i predicted the game right, but still lost the bet with a one goal win.
i will also parlay them on ML with REal heavy.
Other point of interest Kristajic and Rakitic will not play tonight as they are internally suspended for disziplinary reason (too late in a disco on saturday)...should not make a difference to the win, but again ??? for a blow out.
BOL to all
:drink:
