The next Pope to be at least 70 years old. This is as close to a lock as you'll get with a prop bet. There is ONE possible logical choice for Pope that is not 70, and that is Rodriguez from Latin America. Hummes, the Italian, and the Nigerian, are all 70. I have 33% of my account on this prop. I highly recommend it and if you want to hedge yourself you can take Yes the pope will be at least 70 prop and then bet Rodriguez to be the next individual pope. As a former Cathoholic, this is cake.
something is going on with this prop the price on the under 70 keep dropping fast. Money pouring in on the Under. My guess is there is some inside info. on a couple lesser known pope candidates who have some support and they are under 70. this was -400 on the over. as low as -302 this morning.
<TABLE width=650 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk>201 Yes</TD><TD class=main_body_blk>-312</TD><TD class=main_body_blk width=120><INPUT type=radio value=riskType name=radio00>Risk <INPUT type=radio CHECKED value=toWinType name=radio00>To Win</TD><TD width=77><INPUT size=8 name=C0P0></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD></TD><TD class=main_body_blk>202 No</TD><TD class=main_body_blk>+272</TD><TD class=main_body_blk width=120><INPUT type=radio CHECKED value=riskType name=radio01>Risk <INPUT type=radio value=toWinType name=radio01>To Win</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE width=650 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk>201 Yes</TD><TD class=main_body_blk>-312</TD><TD class=main_body_blk width=120><INPUT type=radio value=riskType name=radio00>Risk <INPUT type=radio CHECKED value=toWinType name=radio00>To Win</TD><TD width=77><INPUT size=8 name=C0P0></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD></TD><TD class=main_body_blk>202 No</TD><TD class=main_body_blk>+272</TD><TD class=main_body_blk width=120><INPUT type=radio CHECKED value=riskType name=radio01>Risk <INPUT type=radio value=toWinType name=radio01>To Win</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
I highly doubt that there is inside info on this. Remember, if a cardinal in one of these meetings leaks word to someone on what they are discussin in private he risks excommunication from the church. Also, I do not believe they have even started the deliberation process for the next pope. I think the number of cardinals that vote on this is 107. Furthermore, from past papal elections we know that these guys will vote in blocs, which is why I think this will win. The Africans and cardinals from developing countries will vote for the Nigerian Arinze (who is over 70), the Italians and some Europeans will vote for Tettamanzi (also over 70) because they feel that the church might not yet be ready for a non-European Pope (even though they'd never publicly say it). Finally, the wild card is Hummes from Latin America. He is an intriguing candidate to win it and is WELL respected among the inner circles of the Vatican. Mainly for calling out a Brazilian bishop who advocated the use of condoms to prevent the rise of AIDS in the region. Once again however, Hummes is over 70. And although some of the lesser known candidates do have support, this is not a plurality election where simply the person with the highest number of votes wins. The Papal successor has to get a clear majority of votes to step into the office. Again factor in that Pope John Paul II was one of the longest reigning Popes in history and that most Cardinals do not want someone that can sit on the throne for that long and over 70 years of age seems like a great bet
day168-
While Scola and Schoenbern are both possibilities I think the chances aren't good of them making it. Schoenbern especially, I cannot see the Catholic church choosing a 2nd straight European non-Italian to be the next pontiff. Scola is a bit more likely on the other hand, he is Italian, and is in charge of an important Italian city, Venice. However, I still see the Italians pushing for Tettamanzi, virtually eliminating Scola.
MathProf - Rivera is 62 and has an outside shot at becoming the next Pope. He is the archdiocese at Mexico City and has done a good job of running things there and you're right is very conservative. Rivera has been a teacher at a Catholic school and an outspoken critic of Mexican politics. Miguel Obando y Bravo is over 70, but has virtually no shot at becoming the next Pope. Obando y Bravo was part of a church controversy in the 1970's when he accepted a Mercedes-Benz limousine as a gift from notorious Nicaraguan dictator Anastasio Somoza. Obando I believe also supported the anti-Sandanista contras in the mid 80's, another unpopular move inside the church. To be short MathProf, Rivera has a chance but Obando has none
While Scola and Schoenbern are both possibilities I think the chances aren't good of them making it. Schoenbern especially, I cannot see the Catholic church choosing a 2nd straight European non-Italian to be the next pontiff. Scola is a bit more likely on the other hand, he is Italian, and is in charge of an important Italian city, Venice. However, I still see the Italians pushing for Tettamanzi, virtually eliminating Scola.
MathProf - Rivera is 62 and has an outside shot at becoming the next Pope. He is the archdiocese at Mexico City and has done a good job of running things there and you're right is very conservative. Rivera has been a teacher at a Catholic school and an outspoken critic of Mexican politics. Miguel Obando y Bravo is over 70, but has virtually no shot at becoming the next Pope. Obando y Bravo was part of a church controversy in the 1970's when he accepted a Mercedes-Benz limousine as a gift from notorious Nicaraguan dictator Anastasio Somoza. Obando I believe also supported the anti-Sandanista contras in the mid 80's, another unpopular move inside the church. To be short MathProf, Rivera has a chance but Obando has none
If the next Pope is European, theres a 90-95% chance he will be Italian. However, there are 3 regions that are going to play a major part in the papacy (Latin America, Africa, Europe) Id say that there's a 45% chance the next Pope is European, a 30% chance he's Latin American and a 25% chance he's African. There's only one Asian that could win the papacy, but I believe there's no chance in hell. Becuase there aren't enough Catholics in the region for that area to matter to the Church as much as the others.
The longer it takes to decide the more likely a longshot candidate is selected as a "compromise". Also, the longer it takes the more likely the Pope is to be older as the Cardinals use him as a temporary panacea while the conservative and progressive factions of the Church argue their merits. Right now, if I had to pick who I thought the next Pope would be, I'd say it would be Claudio Hummes from Brazil. He would have a lot of the Latin American community behind him, is seen as a great believer in social justice, and is a guy that nobody seems to dislike that much. Consider this as well, Hummes is in charge of the country with the largest Cathloic population in the world. For the life of me, I do not understand why people are betting on the next pope to be under 70. The 3 leading candidates are all over 70, and there has not been a mobilization of support around any of the younger candidates.
