Thanks to a rural tsunami, the GOP has moved out to a substantial ballot lead: 18,500 ballots, or almost 5 points.
In the urban counties, the Rs have a turnout advantage, including 5 points in Clark and just under a point in Washoe.
If Harris and Trump tie with indies statewide and hold 90 percent of their bases, Trump would win the state by 10,000 votes. Even if Harris were to win indies by 10 points right now and they both hold their base voters at 90 percent, she loses by 6,000 votes.
In the urban counties, the Rs have a turnout advantage, including 5 points in Clark and just under a point in Washoe.
If Harris and Trump tie with indies statewide and hold 90 percent of their bases, Trump would win the state by 10,000 votes. Even if Harris were to win indies by 10 points right now and they both hold their base voters at 90 percent, she loses by 6,000 votes.