First-time poster, long-time player. Discovered this forum mid-season and love the energy and insight here - thanks for all the great info. Figured I'd make my first post a dandy, so here goes.
Was considering blindly taking AFC -5 (-105), but decided to run the numbers through my (ahem, use at your own risk) math model beforehand.
NE -3.5 PHI (Pats 26-22)
NE -10 ATL (Pats 26-16)
PIT -2.5 PHI (Pit 21-18)
PIT -10 ATL (Pit 22-12)
Before moving on, note that everything below uses myodds, which are, for the most part, generic. Adjust the odds as you like if you wish to use this on your own.
Now for the thinking part:
Take the AFC -5, and what you're basically rooting for is an Atlanta victory over Philly. So, if you were to play Philly in the Philly/Atlanta game...
If Philly covers (50% chance), you win the bet and still have the AFC in the Super Bowl. You'll be giving an extra point or two, but the chances the points will come into play are slim.
If Atlanta wins (30% chance), you lose the Philly bet, but you have the AFC and 5 points of line value in the Super Bowl (65% chance of winning). It also opens up a potential in-between.
If Philly wins and doesn't cover (20% chance), you'd have the AFC -5 in the SB, which may be the side you'd play anyhow (it is for me).
One risk is that my math lines are completely off the mark. But, the fact that the early line is AFC -5 makes me think they're pretty close.
If you were to wager $100 on each Philly and the AFC -5, using my generic odds, here is what you'd win/lose along with the chances of each outcome occurring:
Philly covers and AFC covers (+200); chances = .5*.45 = .225
Philly covers and AFC doesn't cover (-5); chances = .5*.55 = .275
Atlanta wins and AFC covers (-10); chances = .3*.65 = .195
Atlanta wins and AFC doesn't cover (-215); chances = .3*.35 = .105
Philly wins/doesn't cover and AFC covers (-10); chances = .2*.45 =.09
Philly wins/doesn't cover and AFC doesn't cover (-215); chances = .2*.55 = .11
200*.225 - 5*.275 - 10*.195 - 215*.105 - 10*.09 - 215*.11 =
45 - 1.375 - 1.95 - 22.575 - .9 - 23.65= -5.45
In general, you'd lose $5/bet, which is the same as laying odds of -110 on each game. Wow.
Hope this saves a few of you some time and energy.
Was considering blindly taking AFC -5 (-105), but decided to run the numbers through my (ahem, use at your own risk) math model beforehand.
NE -3.5 PHI (Pats 26-22)
NE -10 ATL (Pats 26-16)
PIT -2.5 PHI (Pit 21-18)
PIT -10 ATL (Pit 22-12)
Before moving on, note that everything below uses myodds, which are, for the most part, generic. Adjust the odds as you like if you wish to use this on your own.
Now for the thinking part:
Take the AFC -5, and what you're basically rooting for is an Atlanta victory over Philly. So, if you were to play Philly in the Philly/Atlanta game...
If Philly covers (50% chance), you win the bet and still have the AFC in the Super Bowl. You'll be giving an extra point or two, but the chances the points will come into play are slim.
If Atlanta wins (30% chance), you lose the Philly bet, but you have the AFC and 5 points of line value in the Super Bowl (65% chance of winning). It also opens up a potential in-between.
If Philly wins and doesn't cover (20% chance), you'd have the AFC -5 in the SB, which may be the side you'd play anyhow (it is for me).
One risk is that my math lines are completely off the mark. But, the fact that the early line is AFC -5 makes me think they're pretty close.
If you were to wager $100 on each Philly and the AFC -5, using my generic odds, here is what you'd win/lose along with the chances of each outcome occurring:
Philly covers and AFC covers (+200); chances = .5*.45 = .225
Philly covers and AFC doesn't cover (-5); chances = .5*.55 = .275
Atlanta wins and AFC covers (-10); chances = .3*.65 = .195
Atlanta wins and AFC doesn't cover (-215); chances = .3*.35 = .105
Philly wins/doesn't cover and AFC covers (-10); chances = .2*.45 =.09
Philly wins/doesn't cover and AFC doesn't cover (-215); chances = .2*.55 = .11
200*.225 - 5*.275 - 10*.195 - 215*.105 - 10*.09 - 215*.11 =
45 - 1.375 - 1.95 - 22.575 - .9 - 23.65= -5.45
In general, you'd lose $5/bet, which is the same as laying odds of -110 on each game. Wow.
Hope this saves a few of you some time and energy.
