Early Plays For Monday

t3a · Feb 20, 2005

All plays for 2 units

Notre Dame Spread +6.5 for Game +100
love playing against BigLeast 'power' teams

New Mexico Spread pk for Game -106
Not sold on Utes invincibility..

Air Force Spread -10.5 for Game -105
get BYU after playing Utah tough

Hawaii Spread -1.5 for Game -105
UTEP on tough road trip

t3a · Feb 21, 2005

Just played 2 more units on all plays at the same lines except NMex now +2

t3a · Feb 21, 2005

Adding ETenn ST +3 (-112)

thanks to coast2coast for his analysis of the travel involved for UTC here...

Love that this game opened at pick em. UTC at 16-9 (9-5) and ETSU 9-16 (4-10) it's a no-brainer right? Now the line has moved , I am taking the points. Besides the fact that UTC can't defend the 3 (they allow almost 43% on the road, that display against Creighton was no accident) look at the last few conference games for each of these clubs:

UTC
2/5/2005 ELON 59-62 L -15
2/12/2005 @ APPALACHIAN ST 61-83 L
2/14/2005 UNC-GREENSBORO 82-68 W -11
2/17/2005 @ W CAROLINA 75-66 W -5

ETSU
2/7/2005 @ ELON 72-80 L 2.5
2/9/2005 APPALACHIAN ST 73-95 L 0
2/12/2005 UNC-GREENSBORO 105-78 W -1
2/14/2005 W CAROLINA 92-83 W -6.5

pretty close, right down to the 9 point wins over WCarolina. This is ETSU last home game of the year, they will be pumped to go out with a win against a team that whipped them by 30+ earlier this year. UTC is playing their 3rd road game in 5 days which won't help. UTC has lost 5 of their last 6 road games and 5 of their last 8 games overall while ETSU is riding a 3 game winning streak. I will take the home conference dog and buy a half point here

t3a · Feb 21, 2005

Hawaii Analysis

I got this one last night, now seeing 2's and 2.5's....

Hawaii is 38-5 SU in lined games at home in the last 3Y. So it takes a special team to come to the island and beat them. Wisc-Milw just did it, I can't see UTEP making it 2 in a row. The Miners are on the 3rd game of a road trip that staretd in San Jose, they are coming off an emotional TV loss to Pacific, I think this game has letdown written all over it. UTEP 1st year coach Doc Sadler will have his hands full getting his team up for a second stright game when faced with the distractions of Honolulu. When UTEP beat Hawaii 71-70 earlier in El Paso, they outshot the Warriors 38 to 13 from the line. I'm expecting Hawaii to get a little home cooking to help fix that discrepency here.

Played Hawaii -1.5 (-105) for 2 units and -0.5 (-130) for 2 units

t3a · Feb 21, 2005

Adding St. Peter's +6.5 (-106) 2 units

Got burned by Fairfield throwing away a home game Saturday to CSNorthridge. If this were a decent team, I might play them to bounce back from that cold shooting debacle but now the Stags have lost 3 straight home games, and the Peacocks come in on a 4 game win streak to get them 2 games over 500. I know Fairfield has owned this series, especially at home and they took St. P to OT in Jersey so maybe that explains the points offered here. Two pretty evenly matched teams but St. P's has Keydren Clark so I will take the Peacocks (despite their name) and the points

t3a · Feb 21, 2005

Update - weak bite from dogs

ND +6.5 4 unit LOSS - was going to get more when this went up to 8, glad I laid off as Irish played their worst game of the year.

St. Peter's +6.5 2 unit WIN - Fairfield collapsed in the 2nd half even worse than they did Sat, Peacocks outright

ETSU +3 2.24 unit LOSS - thought I was on the smart side when this opened at pick with a 9-16 team vs a 16-9 , but Bucs were never in the game

t3a · Feb 21, 2005

Adding KU -5 (-108)

2nd Half for 2 units. I am going on the "there won't be back-to-back blowouts on ESPN " theory

t3a · Feb 21, 2005

Adding Nevada -7 (-108)

2nd half for 2 units. Tulsa stayed in the game with 3's in the 1st half, betting they revert to form in the 2nd half

t3a · Feb 21, 2005

Update

AF -10.5 4 unit WIN - 31 point win, just like you want a fav to do it, never in doubt

NMex pk 4 unit WIN - should have waited on this, but points didn't matter dog outright by double digits. This fit perectly in the "home conference dog beating the higher rated team with no motivation" theory. Beware the power of the PIT

KU -5 2 unit WIN gotta love ESPN they won't let that 2nd game be a blowout, KU comback right on cue.

Still have Nevada 2h and Hawaill left