Josh Appelbaum examines where early smart money is leaning for Cowboys-Panthers, Patriots-Cardinals and Colts-Broncos.
Week 14 of the NFL regular season is in the books and now we turn our attention to Week 15. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our
VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
The Cowboys (5-8) just saw their two-game win streak come to an end, falling to the Bengals 27-20 and failing to cover as 4.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Panthers (3-10) have dropped three in a row but just battled hard against the Eagles, losing 22-16 but covering as 14-point road dogs. The early opening line for this game was Cowboys -1.5 on the road. However, since that time we’ve seen heavy smart money side with the Panthers, flipping Carolina from +1.5 to -2.5. Some shops are even creeping up to -3. In other words, we’ve seen sharp “dog to favorite” line movement in favor of Carolina. The Panthers are receiving 53% of spread bets but a whopping 92% of spread dollars at DraftKings, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in their favor. At Circa, the Panthers are taking in 73% of spread bets but 99% of spread dollars, further evidence of sharp money backing the home team. Those looking to mitigate some risk in what might be a close game around a key number could elect to play Carolina on the moneyline at -145. The Panthers are receiving 48% of moneyline bets but 80% of moneyline dollars at DraftKings, signaling pro money banking on Carolina to win straight up. The Panthers enjoy a rest vs tired advantage, as the Cowboys are on a short week having played on Monday night and now must travel on the road. Carolina also has value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the team who is expected to win. Non-division favorites are 100-43 (70%) straight up this season with a 3% ROI. Sharps have also leaned under, dropping the total from 44 to 43. This downward movement is notable because the public is playing the over (68% of bets at DraftKings), yet the total fell. Bill Vinovich, the lead ref, is 59% to the under historically.
The Patriots (3-10) have lost three in a row and just came up short against the Colts 25-24 but covered as 2.5-point home dogs. Similarly, the Cardinals (6-7) have also lost three straight and just fell to the Seahawks 30-18, losing outright as 3-point home favorites. This line opened with Arizona listed as a 7-point home favorite. The public isn’t scared off by the big spread and expects a Cardinals win and cover at home in a “get right” spot. However, despite receiving 69% of spread bets at both DraftKings and Circa we’ve seen Arizona fall from -7 to -6. Some shops fell as low as -5.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Patriots plus the points, as the line has moved in their direction despite being the unpopular play. The Patriots are only getting 31% of spread bets but 49% of spread dollars at Circa, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Road dogs getting 6-points or more are 27-18 ATS (60%) with a 15% ROI this season. New England enjoys a “rest vs tired” advantage as the Patriots are coming off a bye while the Cardinals played last Sunday. The Patriots are also a buy-low “bad” ATS team (5-7-1) against a sell-high “good” ATS team (8-5). Ron Torbert, the lead ref, is 57% ATS to the road team historically. Kyler Murray is 31-16 ATS (66%) as a dog but just 11-18 ATS (38%) as a favorite. We could also see some points in this one, as the total has ticked up from 44.5 to 46. This over is only receiving 33% of bets but 45% of dollars, a rare contrarian over discrepancy. The Patriots are 8-5 to the over this season, tied for the 5th best over team in the NFL.
The Colts (6-7) have won two of their last three games and just outlasted the Patriots 25-24, winning outright as 2.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Broncos (8-5) have won three in a row and just held off the Browns 41-32, covering as 6.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Denver listed as a 5-point home favorite. The public thinks this line is way too low and they’re rushing to the window to lay the points with Denver at home. However, despite receiving 77% of spread bets at DraftKings we’ve seen the Broncos fall from -5 to -4, with some shops even inching down to -3.5. Essentially, all movement and liability has come down on the Colts plus the points, as the line has been adjusted in their direction despite being the unpopular play. Indianapolis is one of the top contrarian plays of the week as they are only receiving 23% of spread bets. Road dogs are 64-58 ATS (52%) this season and 482-411 ATS (54%) with a 4% ROI since 2019. Anthony Richardson is 4-1 ATS (80%) as a dog in his career. Shane Steichen is 6-3 ATS (67%) as a dog in his career. We’ve also seen some over money show up, raising the total from 43 to 44. Some shops are even hanging 44.5. The over is receiving 54% of bets and 60% of dollars at DraftKings, indicating slight public support but also respected sharp action. The Broncos are 8-5 to the over this season (including 4-2 to the over at home), tied for the 5th best over team in the NFL. Weather shouldn’t be an issue at Mile High, as the early forecast calls for high 40s with partly cloudy skies and mild 5 MPH winds.
