Early Look (2023) British Open

[chrishansen]

Too early for weather (AM/PM) wave may have advantages closer to tee off.

Past two winners at this course
Rory and Tiger

Favors more a straight accurate hitter off tee. Much more narrow fairways than last year. Not a bomber course despite the short length. Rory and Tiger won hitting iron off tee 95% of time.

Smaller greens and firm fairways/greens.

More OB than previous opens. Accuracy again off the tee vs length can be beneficial.

Majors the past several years have been dominated by top OWGR guys

Previous winners since 2014 have all had top 10 in previous 3 majors. Notable names to cross off...

Homa, Finau, Day, Hatton, Burns, Bradley, Thomas, Lowry, Sungjae

OWGR top 30 players dominate majors.

Sweet spot odds producing winners around 20-30

Win on the season already

Good wind players Texas Aussie Euro Guys
Good short game guys

OWGR top 30

$ Scottie has win has top 10
$ Rahm has win has top 10
$ Rory has win has top 10
Cantlay xxx no win lacks majors chops to close
$ Hovland has win has top 10
Xander xxx no win has top 10 major
Smith xxx not accurate
Homa xxx not a major pedigree no top 10
$ Fitzpatrick has win has top 10
$ Clark has win has top 10
Spieth xxx no win literally can’t putt inside 3ft
$ Brooks has win has top 10 good links player
Zalatoris xxx out
Finau xxx no top 10 major
Bradley xxx has win, no top 10 major
Hatton xxx no top 10 major
Burns xxx has win no top 10 major
Young xxx no win bad form
Morikawa xxx no win
Thomas xxx no win no top 10
$ Fowler has win has top 10 good links player
Fleetwood xxx no win
Sungjae xxx no win no top 10 major
Tom Kim xxx no win
$ kitiyama has win has top 10
$ Straka has win has top 10
Day xxx has win no top 10
Harman xxx no win no top 10
$ Rose has win has top 10 major
Lowry xxx no win no top 10
Nasty yams xxx no win no top 10

Checking boxes so far....

Scottie-
Rahm-
Rory-
Hovland
Fitzpatrick
Clark
Brooks
Fowler
Kitiyama
Straka
Rose

Liv Guys lose OWGR points so DJ Reed etc lose top 30 status

Odds wise sweet spot inside 25-30 range of the above checking most boxes...

Fowler 22-1
Fitzpatrick 25-1


Wind players + good short game + good putter + decent accuracy + good links players....

Scottie- all boxes just bad putting
Rahm- leaking bad form and accuracy of late
Brooks - all boxes great links player
Hovland- all boxes decent links
Fitzpatrick- all boxes but bit less accurate of late
Fowler- all boxes good links player
Clark- all boxes decent links player in great form
Kitiyama- decant links player
Rose- all boxes good links


So far Fowler and Brooks seemed to check most boxes so far. Brooks has incredible Open track record. Fowler has great links history but no major. Hovland and Fitzpatrick in the running.

 

[chrishansen]

Few names of value to keep an eye on for T20 T10

Team Ireland....
Paddy Harrington. +15,000

Old head in good form. True links guy. Playing well on senior tour and few spot starts on PGA. Open always has an old timer show up. Don’t be fooled by the old timer. Good form and holds his own vs young guns. 50th at PGA and 27th at US open. Has plenty of experience on this course. Course will fit his game and style far better than other two majors this year. Course has similar characteristics of us open this year. And PGA two years ago where he finished top 5 the year Phil won.

Team Aussie
Min Woo Lee +6,000

Has plenty of links and Euro tour experience. Bit unpredictable but seems to thrive like Brooks in big game events. Great finishes in US and Players 5th 6th. Top 25 Masters and PGA. Goes MIA in lesser events. Super long and uses a driving iron off tee. Low running for accuracy in links style sets up well. Good putter and Iron player. Bit sketchy short game.

Team Canada
Corey Conners +5,500

Not great at putting or short game or wind. Complete robot and accurate off tee but not long. Great iron player. Can be a plotter holding ground staying with the field. Has been good at Masters several top 10. And Augusta oddly has a few correlation to links. 3 open tournaments has finished T20-25 all 3 times. Consistent is the game. If putting holds to decent to good then ability to compete up leaderboard is possible to T5 territory

Team Scotland
Robby Macyntire +8,000

Euro head with solid links. Big lefty decent overall game. Poked his head up in only 3 opens. 6th 8th 34th. Good track record. Decent approach and short game. Bit wild off tee. Long so may club down off tee to get accuracy here.


Team England
Jordan Smith +9,000

All around very solid game. Only hiccup can’t putt great. Bunker Approach Iron tee and accuracy all well above average to great. Not much experience in majors. Few respectable finishes though

 

[MAGAking1]

Gimme some DFS lookouts if you get a chance.....

 

[chrishansen]

Gimme some DFS lookouts if you get a chance.....

DFS I’m cursed with finishing in something 3 lol. These big events I’ve watched 1st slip away by A) meaningless birdie on 18 by Phil at Masters. B) Meaningless birdie last Group Si woo at memorial along with Mcarthy bogey lose in playoff. C) Rory gettin the bs ball was plugged free drop on green and Fowler bogey last putt of tournament us open. PGA championship Fitzpatrick 3 putt last hole misses 2 foot putt for Mc. Somehow still finished 33rd just 5 golfers

Masters 3rd
PGA 33rd
Memorial 3rd
Us open 3rd

Can’t Fucking make it up lmao.

I’ll predict 333rd at the open

 

[chrishansen]

Gimme some DFS lookouts if you get a chance.....

Remember go with my paint the board strategy. 2-3 USA 3-4 other. Or 3 USA 3 other countries. Group up all countries England Ireland Australia Spain etc and pick one golfer. I’d probably get an Aussie and Brit.

When pairing come out find featured groups. Say Rahm Hatton Morikawa play together. Pick 1 from the group fade the others. It’s rare 2 or more crush. Usually 1 does great 1 okay 1 bad.

Find the price groups. Say 5 golfers are 10k+ just pick 1. Pick 2-3 9k and 3-4 8k and 5-6 7k to get a base of players.

You can try the fade the studs. Scottie Rory Rahm Brooks will garner 90% ownership via the field. If they don’t win or all finish say T5 or worse you garner wicked leverage on the field.

My gut Masters was Brooks 2nd
My gut Pga was Hovland 2nd
My gut Us open was Cam Smith 3rd
My gut this open is Fowler fwi

Rahm Brooks got me 3rd masters
Hovland Brooks got me 33rd pga (Fucking Fitzpatrick)
Hovland Mcarthy got me 3rd memorial
Fowler Clark got me 3rd us open

I’ve had the winners narrowed down as I try and find two guys. Fowler and not sure my 2nd this week. Looking back I’ve been early on the winner but they have one next event.

I also like fading 80% of the top 10 guys from previous year. Last year...

Cam
Young
Rory
Fleetwood
Hovland
Harman
Johnson
Bison
Spieth
Cantlay

I’d say as always the cream shines in Majors. But 8 of those 10 finish outside top 10 this year.

So for English player I’d go.. Hatton Rose Fitzpatrick fade Tommy. Pick 1 or pick a scrub cheapie for England player

Find who didn’t play well. Scottie n Rahm N Brooks all outside T20. I’d imagine 1 rebounds inside top 10

Hatton Fitzpatrick Rose sane thing.

Just kinda go the opposite what guys did last year

156 golfers gotta narrow down weird strategy some how silly simple or dumb. Gotta cut the pool down

 

[chrishansen]

Scottie Spieth Lowry have been god awful with 3ft putts. Spieth can’t hit two footers. It’s unreal. Rory has always been sketch. As hard is it is I’d have to fade them off that. Morikawa been bad also.

Clark
Min woo
Mcarthy

Great from all ranges especially close. Bison good putter. Hatton also but I swear he just can’t compete in stacked fields vs big boys

 

[REDEYE]

Scottie Spieth Lowry have been god awful with 3ft putts. Spieth can’t hit two footers. It’s unreal. Rory has always been sketch. As hard is it is I’d have to fade them off that. Morikawa been bad also.

Clark
Min woo
Mcarthy

Great from all ranges especially close. Bison good putter. Hatton also but I swear he just can’t compete in stacked fields vs big boys

I could be wrong , but it seems like players that aren't
great putters or struggle some with putting, the Open greens don't seem to penalize you as much. The severity of these greens just isn't there. Pretty much why I liked Morikawa a couple of years ago, have him on my resume again.

 

[chrishansen]

I could be wrong , but it seems like players that aren't
great putters or struggle some with putting, the Open greens don't seem to penalize you as much. The severity of these greens just isn't there. Pretty much why I liked Morikawa a couple of years ago, have him on my resume again.

Idk I been watching Spieth and Scottie miss 2 footers in Scotland. If Scottie Spieth Morikawa could hit 2 foot putts the past 3 months they would have a win. Scottie at memorial didn’t make a putt outside 8ft and missed 2 footers. Still almost won. But those 1-2 putts missed time n time out are the difference in 1st and 3rd. It’s not just 1-2 times a tournament it’s 1-2 a round for these guys.

Scottie is 148th in field SG putting last 6 tournaments. Woodland is dead last. Finau young Thomas nasty yams right there with em.

Granted anyone can get hot with putter n go low. Just frustrating watching give me putts missed. Makes me nervous in stacked events where those strokes mean more.

Open greens are no different then lacc or travelers or heritage. Yet they still missing lay ups too often. Outside 10ft they roll it fine. But these easy putts just miss too much. Scottie has left 5 birdies inside 4 feet already this week. His ball struking is just so good though. Unreal tiger esq type run

 

[chrishansen]

Gimme some DFS lookouts if you get a chance.....

Looking back on the years there is merit to what I mention about fade previous top 10 year before

On average 2 players repeat top 10! Past 5 years exactly 2 players each repeat top 10.

The previous year winner average around 11th. With MC, 12, 11, 9, 11.

Nobody top 10 in 3 straight years.
Debut guys actually do well average of 2 per year top 10
Debut guys following year don’t do great

This leaves us with off 2022 and into 2023

1. Cam Smith Projection 11th former Winner trend

2. Cam Young Projection 30th-Mc off debut guy who top 10 previous year

3. Rory Projection 50/50 top 10

4. Fleetwood Projection 50/50 top 10

4. Hovland Projection 20th outside Top 10 based off previous two and only starts of 12 to 4. Players usually don’t peg 3 straight top 10. Or b2b top 10

6 DJ Projection same as Hovland. DJ has b2b 6th n 8th. B2b top 10 and possibly 3 straight top 10 is rare

6 Harman Projection outside top 20. B2b 6 and 19

8. Spieth Projection outsides top 10

8. Bison Projection outside top 10

8. Cantlay Projection 50/50 top 10

Based of this the most likely to top 10 this year Projection is

Cam Smith 11th
Rory Top 10
Fleetwood Top 10
Cantlay Top 10
Bison Top 10

So it’s between what two golfers from Rory Fleetwood Cantlay Bison Top 10 to pick. And Cam the heavy trend to finish exactly 11th or 11-15 range

A golfer who T 12-15 tends to T 10 next year.
Hatton fits here

Two golfers in the T 20’s something tends to T10 next year. Last year saw these guys T21

Scottie Projection likely
Fitzpatrick Projection likely
mullinex Projection no
Lowry Projection likely
Kisner Projection no
Billy Ho Projection no
Min woo Lee Projection likely

Leaving us with two of these Min Woo Lowry Fitzpatrick Scottie to likely T10

Two golfers in T 30ish tends to T 10 next year. T34 last year
Theegala Projection no
Rahm Projection likely
Gooch Projection likely
Wise Projection no
Westetwood Projection no
Detry Projection likely
Perez Projection likely
Macintyre Projection likely

Theegala gets booted off debut trend next year. Leaving us with Rahm Gooch Detry Perez Macintyre

The winner of open is top golfers OWGR.

Debut guys of note to T10 off trend who are off some note or decent to good golfers

McCarthy
Schenk
Hodge
Paul
Long
Moore
Riley
Valmiki
Taylor
R hojagard




So far off trends name/ country/ OWGR

Rory N Ireland T5
Rahm Spain T5
Scottie USA T5
Cantlay USA T19
Fleetwood England T20
Hatton England T15
Lowry Ireland T39
Fitzpatrick England T10
Min woo Australia T45
Bison USA
Macintyre Scotland
Gooch USA
Perez France T70
Detry Germany T100

Brooks Xander etc are live options based off OWGR and previous year finish. Fowler Conners and liv Guys also via other factors can’t be ruled out for win/t10

 

[MAGAking1]

interesting stuff Hansen...will read again slowly next week!

 

[chrishansen]

interesting stuff Hansen...will read again slowly next week!

Did it make sense? Short terms I’m seeing patterns to previous years.

It’s almost like buckets. Example Golfers who finish T12 or T15 one will T10 next year

This years buckets you would select 1 from each bucket
T11 bucket (A) one golfer (Has two golfers)
T15 bucket (B) one or none golfer (Has four golfers)
T21 bucket (C) one golfer (Has six golfers)
T28 bucket (D) one golfer (Has three golfers)
T34 bucket (E) one golfer (Has six golfers)
T42 bucket (F) one or none (Has four golfers)
T47 bucket (G) one or none (Has three golfers)
T53 bucket (H) one golfer (Has three golfers)

For T10 probabilities your best bet is picking one golfer from

Buckets H one golfer
Buckets E one golfer
Buckets D one golfer
Buckets C one golfer
Buckets A one golfer

It’s not a lot of golfers really, considering if ya see a shit bird like Billy Horschell or Carl Jones in a bucket who T15. I’d say they likely don’t do better. But for betting or especially dfs you can narrow down stuff. Then add in your guys or fade your guys from other trends.

 

[MAGAking1]

BE AWARE

Dfs cutoff for this event is 11 pm cst on Wed eve..........

 

[chrishansen]

Past 12 years winner trends.

Factors include
OWGR
Win on year
Top 10s
Two top 5
4 or more open starts
Previous years finish
Career starts
Previous past two starts any tournaments
Etc etc etc

Ran all the golfers and top 5 before the big axe
Lowry no win axed
Fleetwood no win axed
Harman no win axed
Hovland only 2 open starts axed

Only standing
Rory
Brooks
Rahm

If you look at past winners going back 12 years. 60% are missed cut year before. Other are finished literally between 33-47 place

Good news for
Rahm 34 ly
Brooks Mc ly
Rory 3 ly gotta axe

On average just 1.5 golfers who T10 year before go b2b T10

Leaves us with Rahm and Brooks

Average age of winners has been 28 and 33 past few years
Rahm 28
Brooks 33


If you look at past 3 majors the 4 big studs alternate finishing positions.

Masters-Rahm Brooks Scottie (Rory in back)
PGA-Brooks Scottie Rory (Rahm goes to back)
Us - Rory Scottie Rahm (Brook goes to back)

OWGR 1 hasn’t won in years. Scottie also only 2 open starts fwiw

This leans it’s Scottie time to go to back.

Not sexy value. But favors Brooks just slightly over Rahm

To win depending crazy weather bad draw
Brooks
Rahm

Posted on her last year and this similar stuff results were

2023 masters landed 3 golfers
Rahm 1st
Hovland 7th
Finau

2022 masters landed
Cam Smith 3rd
Scottie Scheffler 1st

2022 PGA landed
Will Z 2nd
Brooks Mc

2022 open landed
Cam Smith 1st
Hovland 5th


Trends say Rahm or Brooks this year. Take it fwiw

 

[MAGAking1]

Pretty good deal for a $25 dollar entry contest ...20percent rebate off the top.

 

[VIEJODINOSAUR]

Scheffler missed too many putts under 10 feet last week in Scotland…he was striking the ball wonderfully….I like his chances this week…

 

[Greenbacks]

$50
Cameron Smith +1600/$800
Tommy Fleetwood +2500/$1250
Shane Lowry +3300/$1650

 

[chrishansen]

Scheffler missed too many putts under 10 feet last week in Scotland…he was striking the ball wonderfully….I like his chances this week…

He has been missing 3 foot putts the past 4 months. He was 0-38 in putts 8ft or more at memorial. Everyone likes Scottie every week. 2nd still ain’t winning. If you pull a fan off the course to putt every putt for him then he wins by 8 strokes

 

[chrishansen]

$50
Cameron Smith +1600/$800
Tommy Fleetwood +2500/$1250
Shane Lowry +3300/$1650

5 of past 7 winners have finished Mc 11 11 11 12 9 the following week

Lowry has 1 top 10 all year.

Fleetwood hopefully has some home crowd mojo. Like to see him win it or Fowler.

 

[VIEJODINOSAUR]

The new 17th hole will give players fits…the short par 3 will be difficult to stay on the green…some liken it to the Sawgrass Island green but more difficult…expect to see big numbers…

 

[Greenbacks]

McIlroy, Rahm, Rose headline 151st Open Championship pairings.​

HOYLAKE, England -- Rory McIlroy will play the first two rounds of the 151st Open Championship at Royal Liverpool Golf Club with Masters champion Jon Rahm and former world No. 1 golfer Justin Rose.
McIlroy, who won the third of his four major championship victories the last time The Open was played at Royal Liverpool in 2014, will tee off at 9:59 a.m. ET Thursday in the late-early wave. The trio will start at 4:58 a.m. in Friday's second round.
McIlroy will attempt to end a nearly nine-year drought without a major championship victory.
Defending Open Championship winner Cameron Smith is in the opposite early-late wave. He'll tee off with U.S. Open champion Wyndham Clark and Xander Schauffele at 4:58 a.m. ET Thursday and 9:59 a.m. ET Friday.
World No. 1 golfer Scottie Scheffler is playing with England's Tommy Fleetwood and Australia's Adam Scott. They'll go off at 4:47 a.m. ET Thursday and 9:48 a.m. ET Friday.
Other featured groups include Jordan Spieth, Matt Fitzpatrick and Jason Day (4:03 a.m. ET Thursday/9:04 a.m. ET Friday); Patrick Cantlay, PGA Championship winner Brooks Koepka and Hideki Matsuyama (4:36 a.m. ET Thursday/9:37 a.m. ET Friday); Viktor Hovland, Tony Finau and Justin Thomas (9:48 a.m. ET Thursday/4:47 a.m. ET Friday); and Collin Morikawa, Max Homa and Tyrrell Hatton (10:10 a.m. ET Thursday/5:09 a.m. Friday).
With rain in the weather forecast for northwest England this week, getting on the right side of the draw could once again be a factor in The Open. "[The rough] is spotty," Morikawa said. "Some places are really bad. Some places you can get a really good lie. Obviously, if it's wet, it changes a lot. There's some spots out there where you might be chipping out sideways. but also a foot away the ball might be sitting up and you might be able to go for the green. Things got to go your way."