I think this is an inflated line just like last night to get you on the Suns. Why would you give the Suns so many points after the blowout win in Phoenix? Because both Dallas wins were both by 7 pts. The Mavs will win this game tonight and cover the spread. Public money is all over the Suns. I'll wait closer to game time to see if public will drive the line down a little. I think the Suns is a sucker bet tonight, just like the Heat last night. As soon as the line came out, I thought to myself...Miami could win this game, why so many points (6)? Then I realized Detroit has some good shooters and they are playing at home. All the games have gone under so far. I watched the game and Det kept the lead 1 to 5 points for most of the game until the end when Heat fouled them over and over and Det covers easy 1st half, game, and 2nd half. Oh, and 70% of public jumped on that +6. Same thing is happening tonight fellas. I won't play Mavs 1H, as Suns have been consistently winning the 1st half of all 4 games.
If you're a great team, you should be able to recover from a 20 point shalacking on the road. Dallas will try to prove that they are able to do it, while Phoenix is blooming with confidence and treating this like a Game 7. Phoenix has a great chance at running out of Dallas with a win, but I'm sure Avery gave his players a lot of lectures on how to improve upon their past performances. Speed will kill the Mavs until this series ends, so there is no reason why the Suns can't win also.
The line is 7 because that's been the established home spread for dallas in this series. Games 1+2 had 7 and I'm sure you'll see 7 again if there's a game 7. Game 6 will probably have a pk or -1 line for the Suns. Good luck but this is another coin toss game.
The line is 7 because that's been the established home spread for dallas in this series. Games 1+2 had 7 and I'm sure you'll see 7 again if there's a game 7. Game 6 will probably have a pk or -1 line for the Suns. Good luck but this is another coin toss game.
Just a brief reminder, that in Game 2, with Dallas having lost Game 1 and in a "must win" situation, the line closed at Dallas -8. Dallas lost the cover on a meaningless layup by Nash at the buzzer. This line actually opened -7.5 and has moved down to the current -6.5. If you happen to like Dallas, not so sure this one will move any lower. If it does, certainly not lower then -6.
Some similarities but one big difference - Detroit has been playing like a team that has fallen apart compared to its regular season performance. Dallas, in contrast, has been the most dominant team in the playoffs. You needed to take a leap of faith last night to bet Detroit. That is not the case tonight. You have the best team in the NBA in a major bounceback situation. This is a no-brainer.
Well I have a really slow day at work so I went and looked back at Dallas's schedule this season. What I wanted to know was two-fold. How have the Mavs responded to a loss this season, and how have they responded to a big loss? Didn't really take point spreads into consideration, just margin of victory or loss in their next game.
Off a SU loss this year, the Mavs are 23-5 SU. 16 of the 23 wins came by 7 or more points.
Off a big loss this year, of 9 or more points, Dallas is 11-2 SU. 9 of these 11 wins came by 7 or more points. In fact, all 9 of these wins were by double digits.
Off of a SU playoff loss this year, Dallas is 3-1 SU. In all 3 of their wins, they won by 7 or more.
So what do we have? What are Dallas's chances of winning by 7 or more tonight?
Off a SU loss this year Dallas wins by 7 or more 57% of the time.
Off a big loss this year Dallas wins by 7 or more 69% of the time.
Off a playoff loss this year Dallas wins by 7 or more 75% of the time.
If you think Dallas will win SU tonight, but don't want to lay the points, it is worthwhile to mention this...
Off a loss this year, Dallas's SU wins have come by 7 or more 70% of the time.
Off a big loss this year, Dallas's SU wins have come by 7 or more 82% of the time.
Off a playoff loss this year, Dallas's SU wins have come by 7 or more 100% of the time.
Over the last 2 years, Dallas is 22-11 ATS off a road loss, and 13-4 ATS off a road loss by 10+ points.
All I could look at for Phoenix was the playoffs, I need to get back to work soon
Phoenix is 4-5 SU off a playoff win this year. 4 of the 5 losses came by 7 or more. So again, if you think Phoenix will lose SU but stay within the number, remember that off a playoff win this year, 80% of their losses (if they lose) in the next game have come by 7 or more.
Off a SU loss this year, the Mavs are 23-5 SU. 16 of the 23 wins came by 7 or more points.
Off a big loss this year, of 9 or more points, Dallas is 11-2 SU. 9 of these 11 wins came by 7 or more points. In fact, all 9 of these wins were by double digits.
Off of a SU playoff loss this year, Dallas is 3-1 SU. In all 3 of their wins, they won by 7 or more.
So what do we have? What are Dallas's chances of winning by 7 or more tonight?
Off a SU loss this year Dallas wins by 7 or more 57% of the time.
Off a big loss this year Dallas wins by 7 or more 69% of the time.
Off a playoff loss this year Dallas wins by 7 or more 75% of the time.
If you think Dallas will win SU tonight, but don't want to lay the points, it is worthwhile to mention this...
Off a loss this year, Dallas's SU wins have come by 7 or more 70% of the time.
Off a big loss this year, Dallas's SU wins have come by 7 or more 82% of the time.
Off a playoff loss this year, Dallas's SU wins have come by 7 or more 100% of the time.
Over the last 2 years, Dallas is 22-11 ATS off a road loss, and 13-4 ATS off a road loss by 10+ points.
All I could look at for Phoenix was the playoffs, I need to get back to work soon
Phoenix is 4-5 SU off a playoff win this year. 4 of the 5 losses came by 7 or more. So again, if you think Phoenix will lose SU but stay within the number, remember that off a playoff win this year, 80% of their losses (if they lose) in the next game have come by 7 or more.
