Don't over-emphasize one game
By Big Al McMordie
The first week of the NFL season is over and college football teams are beginning to get a few games under their belts. Which means it's a good time to talk about misconceptions regarding the outcome of one game.
Smart handicappers understand patience and the ability to look at the whole picture, and that's especially important this time of year. Over the course of an entire season, stats are going to even out.
For example, in Week 1 the Miami Dolphins got 86 total rushing yards against the Texans, an average of 3.9 yards per carry in the stunning 20-21 home loss to Houston. The Texans ranked 31st in the NFL last year running the football, yet outgained Miami on the ground 127-86 in the opener. Odd? Of course. This was shocking, as Miami had the No. 1 rushing attack in all of pro football in 2002, and averaged 4.8 yards per carry behind Ricky Williams.
It could have been one bad game, it could have been poor play-calling and execution, or it could have been an inspired effort from Houston's defense. The point is, don't make a statistical handicapping assumption that Miami's potent ground game from a year ago has gone 'poof'. When the season ends, it's most likely –barring an injury to Williams – that Miami will have one of the top rushing attacks in pro football again, while the Texans will be back near the bottom. After all, those 1,853 yards rushing from Williams over 16 games last season was not a mirage.
Novice handicappers invariably look at the most recent game and make incorrect assumptions and predictions about what might happen this weekend, which leaves them way off the map. Instead, take each game as one piece of a giant puzzle, and make sure you analyze both the individual pieces and the whole picture.
Compare Miami's running game analogy with what happened in the Jets-Redskins game. New York looked awful on offense, with 158 total yards in the 13-16 loss at Washington. This was a pretty potent Jets' offense a year ago, so was this one bad game, or has their offense slipped considerably from 2002?
This is an example of one game telling a lot about a team. The Jets have lost two key offensive players from last season in free agent Laveranues Coles (their best receiver) and QB Chad Pennington (injury). On top of that, aging Vinny Testaverde feuded last year with offensive coordinator Paul Hackett. The two clearly don't get along and it even showed on the field, as the Jets' offense was terrible during a 1-5 start under Testaverde last season before Pennington stepped in and turned things around.
On top of all that, Hackett is a poor offensive coordinator. Now, Hackett and Testaverde have been forced to work together again, and the results so far have been, well, just like last September, when New York scored seven, three and three points respectively in losses to the Patriots, Dolphins and Jaguars. Those three games happened B.C. (Before Chad). Simply put, the Jets will likely continue to struggle to score points because of the loss of Coles and the injury to Pennington.
It's important to know what to look for when analyzing statistics, and just as important to know how to weigh that data and what to do with it. Overall, it's not wise to focus too much on how a team did in one game.
A great example of that has been South Carolina. The Gamecocks looked awful in an uninspired 14-7 victory over LA-Lafayette as a 24½-point favorite. That's why they were a home 'dog this past weekend to Virginia, but South Carolina looked very different in a 31-7 rout of the Cavaliers. Apparently Lou Holtz was playing possum, hiding his best plays and just going through the motions against Lafayette.
Holtz obviously knows the old saying "One game does not a season make" can be true for coaches as well as handicappers.
Big Al McMordie jumped out to the lead in the prestigious $275,000 Hilton Superbook Contest with an awesome 5-0 record in Week 1. Don't miss Big Al's Hilton Selections for Week 2 at Covers Experts.
By Big Al McMordie
The first week of the NFL season is over and college football teams are beginning to get a few games under their belts. Which means it's a good time to talk about misconceptions regarding the outcome of one game.
Smart handicappers understand patience and the ability to look at the whole picture, and that's especially important this time of year. Over the course of an entire season, stats are going to even out.
For example, in Week 1 the Miami Dolphins got 86 total rushing yards against the Texans, an average of 3.9 yards per carry in the stunning 20-21 home loss to Houston. The Texans ranked 31st in the NFL last year running the football, yet outgained Miami on the ground 127-86 in the opener. Odd? Of course. This was shocking, as Miami had the No. 1 rushing attack in all of pro football in 2002, and averaged 4.8 yards per carry behind Ricky Williams.
It could have been one bad game, it could have been poor play-calling and execution, or it could have been an inspired effort from Houston's defense. The point is, don't make a statistical handicapping assumption that Miami's potent ground game from a year ago has gone 'poof'. When the season ends, it's most likely –barring an injury to Williams – that Miami will have one of the top rushing attacks in pro football again, while the Texans will be back near the bottom. After all, those 1,853 yards rushing from Williams over 16 games last season was not a mirage.
Novice handicappers invariably look at the most recent game and make incorrect assumptions and predictions about what might happen this weekend, which leaves them way off the map. Instead, take each game as one piece of a giant puzzle, and make sure you analyze both the individual pieces and the whole picture.
Compare Miami's running game analogy with what happened in the Jets-Redskins game. New York looked awful on offense, with 158 total yards in the 13-16 loss at Washington. This was a pretty potent Jets' offense a year ago, so was this one bad game, or has their offense slipped considerably from 2002?
This is an example of one game telling a lot about a team. The Jets have lost two key offensive players from last season in free agent Laveranues Coles (their best receiver) and QB Chad Pennington (injury). On top of that, aging Vinny Testaverde feuded last year with offensive coordinator Paul Hackett. The two clearly don't get along and it even showed on the field, as the Jets' offense was terrible during a 1-5 start under Testaverde last season before Pennington stepped in and turned things around.
On top of all that, Hackett is a poor offensive coordinator. Now, Hackett and Testaverde have been forced to work together again, and the results so far have been, well, just like last September, when New York scored seven, three and three points respectively in losses to the Patriots, Dolphins and Jaguars. Those three games happened B.C. (Before Chad). Simply put, the Jets will likely continue to struggle to score points because of the loss of Coles and the injury to Pennington.
It's important to know what to look for when analyzing statistics, and just as important to know how to weigh that data and what to do with it. Overall, it's not wise to focus too much on how a team did in one game.
A great example of that has been South Carolina. The Gamecocks looked awful in an uninspired 14-7 victory over LA-Lafayette as a 24½-point favorite. That's why they were a home 'dog this past weekend to Virginia, but South Carolina looked very different in a 31-7 rout of the Cavaliers. Apparently Lou Holtz was playing possum, hiding his best plays and just going through the motions against Lafayette.
Holtz obviously knows the old saying "One game does not a season make" can be true for coaches as well as handicappers.
Big Al McMordie jumped out to the lead in the prestigious $275,000 Hilton Superbook Contest with an awesome 5-0 record in Week 1. Don't miss Big Al's Hilton Selections for Week 2 at Covers Experts.
