I would say it is tough to argue that fixing in team sports is persistent because you just do not see line movement before the match/game that would indicate such. Now individual sports are a different matter. In tennis, I had Philip Petzschner in a parlay in a 1st round match against Jan Hajek in Zabreb a few weeks ago. The price on Petzchner when I put the bet on was about -400. Pre-match it went to over -1200. Addtionally, many books took the match OTB. I would conclude that the match was at least suspicious, particularly since Hajek was known for such things in the past. Petz won in straight sets, had only 40% of this first serves in but won 70% of points on serve. If there was any impropriety in Petzchner-Hajek match, it was extremely difficult to keep it secret. Surely, if it was a team sport, it would be difficult if not impossible to keep a secret.
Whenever you have BILLIONS of $$$$ involved in any industry, there is always business being done. It can be banks...oil companies or any other large corporations. If there is large amounts of money to be won or made, someone is doing something to get it the "easy" way!
You don't need the highest paid player to put in the "fix", you just need the refs! You can stop the best runner in football by calling "holding", or get the ball down field for the worst passing team by calling "pass interference". And wouldn't you know it....none of the above are subject to instant replay! I wonder why?
You don't need the highest paid player to put in the "fix", you just need the refs! You can stop the best runner in football by calling "holding", or get the ball down field for the worst passing team by calling "pass interference". And wouldn't you know it....none of the above are subject to instant replay! I wonder why?
Yes I believe there are decisions and calls made in a game based on the interest of the officials,referee, players, coaches. You really never know whats going on even unless you got the IN on those MAC fixes a few years ago .... Here an example where information became very useful. Its not even a fix but it sure was useful for the opposition.
I know a quality CFL Place Kicker and Punter(10 years ago) and we have a close mutual friend. the friend calls me and says he got released mid-week and he s really pissed, the player had friends on the other team. He was real angry and bitter and he gave the other team's player(s) the punt and field goal formations and made suggestions on how to get pressure and block them. I'm thinking even if he does that it's not rocket science and his old team will make adjustments at the line and block accordingly....etc.... Much to my amazement they blocked 2 punts in the game and the opposing team covered the spread. A FIX - NO but knowledge was power in that game.
I know a quality CFL Place Kicker and Punter(10 years ago) and we have a close mutual friend. the friend calls me and says he got released mid-week and he s really pissed, the player had friends on the other team. He was real angry and bitter and he gave the other team's player(s) the punt and field goal formations and made suggestions on how to get pressure and block them. I'm thinking even if he does that it's not rocket science and his old team will make adjustments at the line and block accordingly....etc.... Much to my amazement they blocked 2 punts in the game and the opposing team covered the spread. A FIX - NO but knowledge was power in that game.
I truly believe international soccer league matches are fixed. At one point (between mlb and nba seasons) i put a lot into researching these leagues and attempting to to make money on the sport. Time after time, massive underdogs would win, or huge odd draws would occur. When I say huge i mean +1000 or greater. A team could be completely outmatched, on the road, and somehow pull out a 0-0 draw. Many of these countries are very relaxed in their regulatory system, and I envision some powerful people (and players) cashing in on these matches.
So which leagues did you bet on exactly and which exact games produced those +1000 and higher time after time?
Underdogs of +1000 and greater barely ever come up unless you look at home games by the top-tier-teams like Barca/Real Madrid/Atletico Madrid/Valencia/Malaga (Spain), Bayern Munich/Dortmund/Schalke (Germany) or ManU/ManCity/Chelsea (England: The teams mentioned so far this year went a combined 16-4-0 in Spain, 10-0-2 in Germany and 10-1-1 in England.
And if you take those three losses, Dortmund lost to Schalke and Schalke lost to Bayern, so in both cases you certainly didn't have +1000 odds. The lone loss in England was ManU losing to Tottenham, another top5 team in the PL, so I kind of doubt you could get them higher than +1000.
Obviously you get upsets and higher odds (it's a 3way bet and generally way lower scores than in football/basketball, so a game ending in a tie after regular time is far more likely, hence the higher odds), but in the bigger leagues usually these upsets are far more likely to occur because of fatigue, regulars getting rested for upcoming games (teams playing Euro League or Champions League on Tuesday/Wednesday or Thursday and league games on Saturday while their opponent could rest and prepare for the game during the week) and in general a rather high parity in the leagues, when you take away the top2-3 clubs.
So it's not that unlikely for a 12th place team to come up with a road win or draw on the road against a 4th or 5th place time from time to time.
Similar story are cup competitions like Copa del Rey: Teams like Barca often times don't care much about those games and send out a team consisting out of their substitutes: Still top players, but often times players that haven't seen game action in weeks and a team, that has never played together in that formation/line-up and thereby have no real "feel" for each other and their teammates tendencies/running lanes etc. And obv. the odds in those cases usually are based on the perception of the 1st unit playing and thereby present +EV opportunities. But that rarely applies for league games.
In most other leagues there is so much parity, that odds on road teams usually peak out at +600 to +800....
Besides all that if a team is just out to keep a clean sheet defending with all 11 players, it can get extremely difficult to create scoring opportunities, no matter how skilled your players are and how overmatched your competition appears on paper....
@QL: Never did, never will do, couldn't afford to even if I wanted to *LOL*
But no need to either in some of those leagues.
@Murphy: Ajax/ManCity is currently being played, champions league match...
These matches were all over; brazil, albania, russia, germany, sweden, euroleague, europa,etc.... and I do not remember the exact odds of each situation, but there was clearly examples of something fishy. and that brings me to my point on what you said...The section of your post that I quoted is a perfect example of what I consider sketchy about those leagues. How could one ever determine when a team was going to employ the "just keep a clean sheet" strategy unless they had inside information. Imagine this scenario; a top team is matched at home against a far weaker opponent, hundreds of thousands of dollars are wagered on this better team to win. However, a select few involved in the fix know that the other team is simply going to play defense the entire game to create a push. That is only one example of how those few in power cash in big time. And I will never again throw my money away when there are much more legitimate sports out there.
You should check out the book, THE FIX, by Declan Hill, very interesting and eye opening read
I know that book and actually don't think it's a good read.
Don't get me wrong, there are fixed matches especially when you bring up leagues like Albania, Euroleague (esp. if you're talking about the qualifying matches) or even 2nd/3rd division soccer matches in Germany were fixed in the past. But that's still just a fraction of games played and it's even less likely the bigger the competition/league is. Also a fix, that affects the scoring is not that easy and in my opinion def. not more likely than point shaving in f.e. a basketball game: Any action leading up to a goal in soccer is far more likely to be looked at than a foul/turnover/bad defense or missed FT/FG in a basketball game, especially if you think about f.e. a double digit spread because that game is already decided and any such action can be blamed on a lack of motivation (missed shot/turnover) or padding up your stats (useless buzzer-beater in an already decided game).
About the quoted area: It's tough to crack a 10man defense in soccer, but not impossible and tbh 9/10 opponents travelling to Barca or Munich f.e. won't travel there intending to light up the scoreboard, but to slow down the game and try to take away any open space for their offense. That kind of "knowledge" does you no good at all and certainly doesn't justify high stake bets.
I just used that example to show, that at times not converting on 2-3 good scoring opportunities is all it takes in soccer to turn a 3-0 or 4-0 into a scoreless tie. Because once you score the 1st goal and are up, your opponent has to open up there defense, which gives you more open space to use. It also depends on the kind of strikers you have, a guy like Messi (or Barca in general) is far more affected by this than f.e. someone like Drogba because Drogba is far more likely to score a header than Messi.
Still, a team like Barca with their quick, short-passing game usually finds holes in even the tightest defense and thanks to the ballhandling skills of people like Messi, they create holes and mismatches even under those circumstances. So defending the entire game means, they will attack relentlessly and therefore usually create an abundance of scoring opportunities, so often times it's just a matter of time until someone scores.
Besides obvious fixes, where players/refs are paid off, those big guns usually have way better information about injuries or players not being 100%. In leagues like Brazilian Seria A you often time get early odds, that are way off, because they are based on stats and the last couple of games, but don't take into account that a team like f.e. Santos won't play their stars like Neymar because of an upcoming Copa Libertadores game 2-3 days later, which they deem more important. So a game like that might f.e. start out with their opponent at +140 and kick-off with them being around +100 instead.
Or you look into lower level amateur leagues, where amateur teams and farm teams of some pro teams are matched up...at times, the pro team might have a bye week (or for some other reason) and send down several pros to play for the farm team, which in 9/10 cases gives you odds that are completely off (9/10 because at times those pros don't give a shit about these games and do nothing but jog around a bit...).
This imo is far more valuable information and there are lots of different angles/setups like this every year in all kind of soccer competitions. So many times it's more about doing your homework and realizing those spots than it is about some inside job or fix...
Don't get me wrong, there are fixed matches especially when you bring up leagues like Albania, Euroleague (esp. if you're talking about the qualifying matches) or even 2nd/3rd division soccer matches in Germany were fixed in the past. But that's still just a fraction of games played and it's even less likely the bigger the competition/league is. Also a fix, that affects the scoring is not that easy and in my opinion def. not more likely than point shaving in f.e. a basketball game: Any action leading up to a goal in soccer is far more likely to be looked at than a foul/turnover/bad defense or missed FT/FG in a basketball game, especially if you think about f.e. a double digit spread because that game is already decided and any such action can be blamed on a lack of motivation (missed shot/turnover) or padding up your stats (useless buzzer-beater in an already decided game).
About the quoted area: It's tough to crack a 10man defense in soccer, but not impossible and tbh 9/10 opponents travelling to Barca or Munich f.e. won't travel there intending to light up the scoreboard, but to slow down the game and try to take away any open space for their offense. That kind of "knowledge" does you no good at all and certainly doesn't justify high stake bets.
I just used that example to show, that at times not converting on 2-3 good scoring opportunities is all it takes in soccer to turn a 3-0 or 4-0 into a scoreless tie. Because once you score the 1st goal and are up, your opponent has to open up there defense, which gives you more open space to use. It also depends on the kind of strikers you have, a guy like Messi (or Barca in general) is far more affected by this than f.e. someone like Drogba because Drogba is far more likely to score a header than Messi.
Still, a team like Barca with their quick, short-passing game usually finds holes in even the tightest defense and thanks to the ballhandling skills of people like Messi, they create holes and mismatches even under those circumstances. So defending the entire game means, they will attack relentlessly and therefore usually create an abundance of scoring opportunities, so often times it's just a matter of time until someone scores.
Besides obvious fixes, where players/refs are paid off, those big guns usually have way better information about injuries or players not being 100%. In leagues like Brazilian Seria A you often time get early odds, that are way off, because they are based on stats and the last couple of games, but don't take into account that a team like f.e. Santos won't play their stars like Neymar because of an upcoming Copa Libertadores game 2-3 days later, which they deem more important. So a game like that might f.e. start out with their opponent at +140 and kick-off with them being around +100 instead.
Or you look into lower level amateur leagues, where amateur teams and farm teams of some pro teams are matched up...at times, the pro team might have a bye week (or for some other reason) and send down several pros to play for the farm team, which in 9/10 cases gives you odds that are completely off (9/10 because at times those pros don't give a shit about these games and do nothing but jog around a bit...).
This imo is far more valuable information and there are lots of different angles/setups like this every year in all kind of soccer competitions. So many times it's more about doing your homework and realizing those spots than it is about some inside job or fix...
