Do any of these teams honestly have a chance of not winning the first game?

[Hawklet2]

Based on the moneyline, this is the aprox. percentage of these teams to win. Do these not seem quite low for these teams (expeciallly for the first game of the WC):

Germany 81% over costa rica
Englad 64% over paraguay
Sweden 81% over Trinidad and Tabago
Argintina 67% over Ivory Coast
Netherlands 55% over Serbia and Montenegro
Mexico 64% over Iran
Portugal 76% over Angola
Italy 64% over Ghana
Brazil 71% over Croatia

In particular the Brazil, Italy, and Netherlands MLs.

What are the reasons for those being so low?

 

[fhmesq44]

Well, anything can happen. Brazil should be higher. Croatia is the second best team in the group, but Brazil is head and shoulders better than they are. Ghana is good, physical, quick and playing well. Italy could retreat into a defensive mindset as is their history (although they are playing in a much more offensive manner under Lippi). Plus, zambrotta is likely out, same with Nesta and perhaps Totti, not to mention the scandal drama. S&M plays really solid defense, maybe the best of anyone, 0-0 is not out of the question in that game.

 

[RapStar]

The upset pick is Ghana over Italy for me.

 

[trytrytry]

i think Brazil draws in game one

 

[HinesWard86]

I don't think Portugal beats Angola

 

[jwblue]

Sweden might be the closest thing to a lock.

IS

 

[JohnMolson]

Iran will give the Mexicans all they can handle

 

[HPark1]

Based on the moneyline, this is the aprox. percentage of these teams to win. Do these not seem quite low for these teams (expeciallly for the first game of the WC):

Germany 81% over costa rica
Englad 64% over paraguay
Sweden 81% over Trinidad and Tabago
Argintina 67% over Ivory Coast
Netherlands 55% over Serbia and Montenegro
Mexico 64% over Iran
Portugal 76% over Angola
Italy 64% over Ghana
Brazil 71% over Croatia

In particular the Brazil, Italy, and Netherlands MLs.

What are the reasons for those being so low?

In their own qualifying Brazil only won 9 out of their 18 games played (9wins/7draws/2losses). You can't assume they are going to run over quality opponents off their continent.

Ghana is one of the better African sides. They have a strong defence which allowed only 4 goals in their 12 qualifying games. Any team that has quality and can defend is not easily beaten.

Holland has some injury concerns...Midfielders Philip Cocu, Wesley Sneijder and Rafael van der Vaart and defender Giovanni van Bronckhorst are all nursing injuries and questionable for the tournament. Their opponents like Ghana have a very good defence. They shut out 9 of their 10 opponents in qualifying.

 

[-Slim-]

I have a sneaking suspicion that Japan draws Brazil

 

[Experto]

I don't think Portugal beats Angola

:missingte

 

[Concorde]

Sweden might be the closest thing to a lock.

IS