Well GL anyway Sean...as I've said, I'm pretty much following certain teams that I think will leave me + money overall over the course of weeks, so day-by-day I have to expect some losses but hope the keep being outweighed by the wins.
peckerlips - I don't really ever get into picks for first 5 innings but I would say that I like the White Sox. Danks looked good, though not dominant, in his frst outing and the Tigers are throwing a young guy out there. In a matchup of two offense who are killing the ball, I'll take the more proven commodity.
GL everyone
peckerlips - I don't really ever get into picks for first 5 innings but I would say that I like the White Sox. Danks looked good, though not dominant, in his frst outing and the Tigers are throwing a young guy out there. In a matchup of two offense who are killing the ball, I'll take the more proven commodity.
GL everyone
Horseshoe-
No, I just use my own knowledge combined with a new strategy I developed really. The "system" I've been using is one that I kinda made up a few days before the season. I looked into the general public/Vegas oddsmakers expectations for each team and then went over all the rosters and depth charts and came to my own conclusions about teams. I ended up choosing three "follows" (teams I considered to be underrated) and three "fades" (teams I thought were getting too much respect). What I've done is bet every game played by those 6 teams based on that theory and expected that in the long run it would come out in positive amounts. So my teams are predetermined each day (but by my own long-term handicapping, not a system onf stats like accuscore). The RL/ML decisions I do day-by-day based on my knowledge/expectations of that day's specific matchups.
So far, obviously, pretty much everything I've done has worked...but I've been quite open about the fact that I don't know how long it will last. :think2:
I'm already keeping an eye out for teams overachieving/underachieving with the expectation that I will drop a few of my current teams and/or add a few new teams every couple of weeks at least. Hopefully this plan to jump on hot teams at the right time and also jump on at the right time to fade cold teams will work for an extended period. If it doesn't, then I'll keep whatever I have from profit and start doing day-by-day capping again (but with a nice cushion to work with). Maybe I'll even follow other people's systems or do a little of both. But as of now, I have no reason to jump off these teams because it seems too early still and the lines havent completely adjusted to them...which is of course, to our benefit!
You should check out Broncos thread for Accuscore info. It seems to work very well for him in NBA and MLB. I respect those guys who use number systems and other things like that, but it has no bearing on what I'm doing here. So sorry, I don't think I'm much help on your question.
GL tonight
No, I just use my own knowledge combined with a new strategy I developed really. The "system" I've been using is one that I kinda made up a few days before the season. I looked into the general public/Vegas oddsmakers expectations for each team and then went over all the rosters and depth charts and came to my own conclusions about teams. I ended up choosing three "follows" (teams I considered to be underrated) and three "fades" (teams I thought were getting too much respect). What I've done is bet every game played by those 6 teams based on that theory and expected that in the long run it would come out in positive amounts. So my teams are predetermined each day (but by my own long-term handicapping, not a system onf stats like accuscore). The RL/ML decisions I do day-by-day based on my knowledge/expectations of that day's specific matchups.
So far, obviously, pretty much everything I've done has worked...but I've been quite open about the fact that I don't know how long it will last. :think2:
I'm already keeping an eye out for teams overachieving/underachieving with the expectation that I will drop a few of my current teams and/or add a few new teams every couple of weeks at least. Hopefully this plan to jump on hot teams at the right time and also jump on at the right time to fade cold teams will work for an extended period. If it doesn't, then I'll keep whatever I have from profit and start doing day-by-day capping again (but with a nice cushion to work with). Maybe I'll even follow other people's systems or do a little of both. But as of now, I have no reason to jump off these teams because it seems too early still and the lines havent completely adjusted to them...which is of course, to our benefit!
You should check out Broncos thread for Accuscore info. It seems to work very well for him in NBA and MLB. I respect those guys who use number systems and other things like that, but it has no bearing on what I'm doing here. So sorry, I don't think I'm much help on your question.
GL tonight
btw a quick note for anybody may be actually following me...I recommend staying consistent with 1 unit (as I have) and not getting greedy. Because like I said in the last post, you never know when a few of these teams will hit a rough patch and we'll have to re-adjust. Obviously for my own personal benefit and for anybody following me, I'm doing my best to gauge when that will happen to certain teams so I can hopefully "pre-emptively" adjust. But you never know for sure and you dont want to have one 0-5 night wipe out a +20 unit start to the season because you got overly confident...so keep it consistent. Inconsistency with unit sizes hurts alot of people including me in past seasons.
Adding these for the night games:
Cardinals -1.5 (+120), Reds +123, Mariners -103, Royals -1.5 (+140)
Leaving me with a full card of (All 1 Unit, of course):
Runlines
White Sox -1.5 (+130) PPD
Cardinals -1.5 (+120)
Royals -1.5 (+140)
Moneylines
Marlins +138
Reds +123
Mariners -103
Like I said last night, I like today's lines again. Not quite as high on them as I was yesterday's picks, but more along the lines of the two weekend days which racked up a couple units for us. I've had a good sense for how it will turn out each night so far so I hope to be right again. One of my most confident picks today (White Sox) was already rained out in the afternoon, unfortunately, but I still see no reason why we cant get 3 or 4 wins tonight. I'll take that any day...remember dont get greedy!
Lets get it done again tonight guys! GL all
Cardinals -1.5 (+120), Reds +123, Mariners -103, Royals -1.5 (+140)
Leaving me with a full card of (All 1 Unit, of course):
Runlines
White Sox -1.5 (+130) PPD
Cardinals -1.5 (+120)
Royals -1.5 (+140)
Moneylines
Marlins +138
Reds +123
Mariners -103
Like I said last night, I like today's lines again. Not quite as high on them as I was yesterday's picks, but more along the lines of the two weekend days which racked up a couple units for us. I've had a good sense for how it will turn out each night so far so I hope to be right again. One of my most confident picks today (White Sox) was already rained out in the afternoon, unfortunately, but I still see no reason why we cant get 3 or 4 wins tonight. I'll take that any day...remember dont get greedy!
Lets get it done again tonight guys! GL all
4-0, +5 units (approx)...and Cardinals game was looking good a couple minutes ago at 3-0 w/ Carpenter dealing. Unfortunately, he left the game injured and the bullpen quickly got to work on blowing the lead.
Looks like a bad injury break might cost us the undefeated week so far, which would suck...but theres still some hope. Plus, can't complain even if it does cost us since everything else has been breaking our way lately. <><>
I'll be waiting til after the Cards game is final to post a full and official summary.
GL everyone, finish strong! :toast:
Looks like a bad injury break might cost us the undefeated week so far, which would suck...but theres still some hope. Plus, can't complain even if it does cost us since everything else has been breaking our way lately. <><>
I'll be waiting til after the Cards game is final to post a full and official summary.
GL everyone, finish strong! :toast:
Well the bullpen imploded towards the end and seems as if they've cost us the 5-0 night. Carpenter's injury was almost certainly the difference in this one, as he was likely going deep into the ballgame which would have changed the whole bullpen situation. 
hno:
Sucks to lose because of an unforeseeable injury to an ace pitcher...but if going 4-1 is the worst thing that happens all week, I think things are still looking up
Still a small chance of a comeback, so we can pray for that...but most likely I'll be updating in a few minutes with as disappointing a 4-1 night as possible lol Glad I didn't go with the parlay on the side tonight
Hope everyone had a profitable evening.
hno:Sucks to lose because of an unforeseeable injury to an ace pitcher...but if going 4-1 is the worst thing that happens all week, I think things are still looking up
Still a small chance of a comeback, so we can pray for that...but most likely I'll be updating in a few minutes with as disappointing a 4-1 night as possible lol Glad I didn't go with the parlay on the side tonight
Hope everyone had a profitable evening.
I've said enough in the last few posts about the disappointing Cardinals game so I'll go right into the summary now:
Runlines
White Sox -1.5 (+130) PPD
Cardinals -1.5 (+120) LOSER -1 Unit
Royals -1.5 (+140) WINNER +1.4 Units
Moneylines
Marlins +138 WINNER +1.38 Units
Reds +123 WINNER +1.23 Units
Mariners -103 WINNER +1 Unit
Daily Total: 4-1, +4.01 Units :toast:
This Week's Total: 8-1, +11.61 Units* (includes +3.17 parlay)
YTD 29-12, +25.48 Units
I'm pretty sure I'll have tonights picks (at least partly) up at some point tonight but can't gaurantee it. I'll always post them well before any games start though, worst case. Hope everyone had a good night and GL tomorrow!
Runlines
White Sox -1.5 (+130) PPD
Cardinals -1.5 (+120) LOSER -1 Unit
Royals -1.5 (+140) WINNER +1.4 Units
Moneylines
Marlins +138 WINNER +1.38 Units
Reds +123 WINNER +1.23 Units
Mariners -103 WINNER +1 Unit
Daily Total: 4-1, +4.01 Units :toast:
This Week's Total: 8-1, +11.61 Units* (includes +3.17 parlay)
YTD 29-12, +25.48 Units
I'm pretty sure I'll have tonights picks (at least partly) up at some point tonight but can't gaurantee it. I'll always post them well before any games start though, worst case. Hope everyone had a good night and GL tomorrow!
No specific time but I'll generally post some of them around 1:30-2:00am EST (mostly for day games or games I want to grab an early line on). The others I'll have up early afternoon for me so late morning for you. I always have them up well before the games start though...is there a specific reason you need to have them? I can always try my best to help out...as long as I'm winning I want others to be gettin some of it too lol
well, i'm usually not by a computer while i'm at work, so i won't be able to get your picks. i usually get online about 10am EST so i can place bets for all games that start before 7pm EST. but i'll do my best to check online in the morning for your morning games and try to get online before the 7pm EST games start. thanks.
ya some nights I might get them all in late at night for the next day...it's tough, just depends on what I have going on. One thing I can definitely do is if I'm just waiting for a better line on a certain game, I'll try to post the team at least and add in my odds later.
Would that be better for you? I'll always be betting the team at some point in those cases, so I promise I wont be leaving you out to dry lol its just the matter of me probably getting slightly better odds than you would
Would that be better for you? I'll always be betting the team at some point in those cases, so I promise I wont be leaving you out to dry lol its just the matter of me probably getting slightly better odds than you would
