DJax's 2009 MLB Picks - Season Thread

[DJax24]

YTD (Week 1 Total): 20-11, +13.87 Units

Posting this one tonight because its the only day game I'm going to be wagering on for Monday and I dont see the line getting any better if I wait. Probably will get worse if anything so I'm just gonna grab it now and post the others tomorrow afternoon.


Moneyline
White Sox +113 for 1 Unit

GL guys

 

[DJax24]

YTD (Week 1 Total): 20-11, +13.87 Units

Posting this one tonight because its the only day game I'm going to be wagering on for Monday and I dont see the line getting any better if I wait. Probably will get worse if anything so I'm just gonna grab it now and post the others tomorrow afternoon.


Moneyline
White Sox +113 for 1 Unit

GL guys

Adding the rest of the plays now:

Royals -123, Reds +130, Cardinals -105


Full Card looks like this (all 1 Unit):

Moneyline

White Sox +113
Royals -123
Reds +130
Cardinals -105

**Parlay of White Sox ML, Royals ML, Reds ML, Cardinals ML for 0.2 Unit (pays 3.17 Units)**


**Smaller card tonight and I really love the games compared to some of the other nights so I decided to add a little parlay of the four teams on the side. It's not something I'll normally be doing, especially on nights with 5-6 games, but this presents a solid reward opportunity for an almost unnoticeable amount risked if it loses. Keep in mind, the single game picks are carrying the season record and the one parlay I tried (Saturday) did lose. That being said, I think this is worth the chance as a very small play since it could potentially increase profits by over 70% on a 4-0 night and will hardly make a difference otherwise.

GL everyone, lets keep this rolling. :toast:

 

[PatsFanatic]

Was already on the white sox before I saw your post but now thinking of doubling up! Probably throw it in an open parlay and fill it later.

Great start last week, keep up the good work!!! @)

 

[DJax24]

Thanks PatsFan, GL with your bet. I think it should win but you never know. IMO the two teams ar epretty equal in most parts of the game so I love getting the much better Starting Pitcher with a +110 or so line, especially since I think their offense seemed to really get going the last few days after aslow start. I'd be surprised if White Sox didn't get 5 or 6 runs today and I think Floyd can hold them to whatever's necessary. It's definitely good value, man...hopefully we cash it in! :toast:

 

[DJax24]

Congrats PatsFanatic! I hope you doubled up...nice easy (sort of) winner. Despite the scoring being 10-6 it was a little scary for a while, but it worked out well.

As for my picks, started 1-0 and all 3 other ones are later tonight so I'll be back during/after those!

GL all

 

[seanm0520]

GL the rest of the day!

 

[PatsFanatic]

Sweet!!!

Nice Job DJAX!!! Love starting the week this way, thx man:toast:

Got to find something to fill this winner with...(nice problem to have)

 

[DJax24]

how many more games are u looking for to fill it? haha

if it helps, my best bet (value-wise) the rest of the night is probably the Cardinals at the odds they have. I would also suggest taking MisterMJ's pick if he has one tonight...he's always money and has helped me many times lol

GL guys

 

[HacheMan]

Gl dj!

 

[DogDaze]

Can you elaborate on the Reds pick?

Thanks for posting and good luck!

 

[DJax24]

Home Dogs, you might want to refer to the bottom of my first post in this thread to see my plan for the beginning of the season. I'm not picking so much night-by-night as I am following certain teams that I thought were underrated preseason/fading teams I thought were overrated preseason. That way we could get some great values for at least a few weeks and then adjust when necessary throughout the year. I haven't done a strategy like this before so I'm not sure how long it will last with these 6 choices (4 play tonight)...but I would expect a few weeks and hopefully more before public/Vegas adjust completely.

I can't say that I would recommend following just for one game because my "system(?)" is more based on a steady rise by pulling out 3-1 or 4-2 nights hopefully. But I did say that I love tonight's lines for the teams that I had already pre-determined to follow and I've had a good sense for that thus far. So I'll try to explain it the best I can for this particular game, I'll always try to help...

Gallardo and Volquez are both very very good young pitchers and that matchup I consider to be a bit unpredictable but I tend to say its a draw on most nights (maybe a very small lean to Gallardo at home, but not worth -150/+130 line). After that, I think the Brewers lineup isnt much better (if it all) than the Reds on most nights. Granted the Brewers have a solid lineup but I think the Reds are underrated offensively and will turn it on very soon. As far as the bullpen goes, I actually really like the Reds BP (which surprises most people I'm sure) so I think thats probably an advantage for them. Therefore, I see tonight as just about a toss-up (good value for +130 Cincy). Also, Reds come in off a win and Brewers havent started to well and may be disappointed after losing tough series to Cubs this weekend.

Random fact I saw someone post last night too was that Reds 10-2 (approx) coming off losses last year when Volquez starts the game.

GL watever you decide, I hope I help you rather than hurt you lol

 

[DJax24]

Thanks Hache!

You generally do MLB picks as well or just over for a look? I didnt have a chance to post earlier but, I'm with you and Numberz on Cavs...anytime both of you have the same I'm in for sure haha

I'll be back on NBA more often at end of the week for some playoffs action

 

[v3candyman]

Nice Job DJ

 

[DJax24]

Adding the rest of the plays now:

Royals -123, Reds +130, Cardinals -105


Full Card looks like this (all 1 Unit):

Moneyline

White Sox +113
Royals -123
Reds +130
Cardinals -105

**Parlay of White Sox ML, Royals ML, Reds ML, Cardinals ML for 0.2 Unit (pays 3.17 Units)**


**Smaller card tonight and I really love the games compared to some of the other nights so I decided to add a little parlay of the four teams on the side. It's not something I'll normally be doing, especially on nights with 5-6 games, but this presents a solid reward opportunity for an almost unnoticeable amount risked if it loses. Keep in mind, the single game picks are carrying the season record and the one parlay I tried (Saturday) did lose. That being said, I think this is worth the chance as a very small play since it could potentially increase profits by over 70% on a 4-0 night and will hardly make a difference otherwise.

GL everyone, lets keep this rolling. :toast:

Dodged some bullets towards the end of the early evening games, gotta get lucky sometimes though if you want to win! 3-0 so gauranteed at least +2 Units on the night but Cardinals make the difference between 5 more!

LETS GO CARDS!!! CLOSE IT OUT BOYS!!!!! @)

 

[DJax24]

GOT IT! 4-0 plus the parlay of the 4...+7.5 units tonight approximately, will have update soon

:toast::toast::toast::toast::toast::toast::toast::toast:

 

[DJax24]

Moneyline

White Sox +113 WINNER +1.13 Units
Royals -123 WINNER +1 Unit
Reds +130 WINNER +1.30 Units
Cardinals -105 WINNER +1 Unit

0.2 Unit Parlay of White Sox ML, Royals ML, Reds ML, Cardinals ML WINNER +3.17 Units

Well, I've had a pretty good feeling for how good the "system" (if thats what we wanna call it) will do each night...I was most excited for today which is why I put down the parlay on the side as well. It wasn't easy at all, last 3 came down to the very end but a big reason I liked those teams with the lines they had tonight was their solid bullpens

Daily Total: 4-0 (+parlay), +7.6 Units

Going to split up parlays and sides (so one previous loss will be dropped from original record down to "parlays" record):

Sides: 24-10, +19.3 Units
Parlays: 1-1, +2.17 Units


YTD 25-11, +21.47 Units

Quick look at tomorrow's lines has me pretty confident again...not quite todays level but more like yesterday (no parlay for huge night but grabbed a few units).Tomorrow's picks up soon but for now gotta celebrate the RARE sweep!

:cripwalk:

Hope everyone had a profitable evening! :drink:

 

[DJax24]

Once again, playing one day game tomorrow so I'm going to get that out now. Also going to post a second play early because I think the odds will get worse over night...On the other four, I'll wait to see if we can get improved lines in the morning. For now:

(All 1 Unit)

Runline
White Sox -1.5 (+130)

Moneyline
Marlins +138

GL tomorrow guys, I like these two a lot (especially at the odds Marlins are currently available for)

 

[DJax24]

Quick overall summary as well, broken down into categories (I'll do this once a week on Sunday night/Monday mornings from now on):

YTD 25-11, +21.47 Units

Sides: 24-10, +19.30 Units
Parlays: 1-1, +2.17 Units

Week 1 (+13.87 Units) = Sides: 20-10, +14.87 Units / Parlays: 0-1, -1.0 Unit
Week 2 (+7.6 Units, in progress) = Sides: 4-0, +4.43 Units / Parlays: 1-0, +3.17 Units


:toast::toast:

 

[PatsFanatic]

how many more games are u looking for to fill it? haha

if it helps, my best bet (value-wise) the rest of the night is probably the Cardinals at the odds they have. I would also suggest taking MisterMJ's pick if he has one tonight...he's always money and has helped me many times lol

GL guys

Filled my White Sox winner with the Cards on your recommendation! Thanks a ton!! Although it wouldn't have matter which one of your plays I filled it with would it

You are en fuego buddy and I will continue to ride your hot hand!!!
Thanks a bunch DJAX!!!:toast:

 

[DJax24]

Oh good..I was thinking about that towards the end of the Cardinals game. All three night games were nailbiters for me, and I was thinking "I hope the game I told PatsFan was my best bet isnt the one that decides to lose on a heartbreaking walk-off". I was afraid that we were due to lose that one at the very end because I just barely survived on some nice escape jobs by the Reds/Royals bullpens. :lol:

But I'm glad it worked out for you....lets hope we can keep it going today. For you or anyone else interested and didn't see yet, I posted two of my plays for today already (look a few posts earlier than this). The lines are still similar and I would still take them as they are. LETS GET IT DONE AGAIN!@)