As with any sport, when it gets to the Final stages, the Public’s interest grows and more bets are taken. These yearly punters rarely have a personal handle on the games and tend to take trends and the like more seriously. So in setting the lines, Books not only look at the match-up but also anything, which may be of influence.
With Stats like, home Teams 45-11 since 1990, Pittsburgh, 15-2 against The Jets, 8-2 ATS against The Jets, The Eagles have similar Stats, you can understand why the line in those 2 games have been extended beyond the norm.
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I don’t wish to get involved in the Atlanta and New England games, both which revolve around the play of Vick and Manning. I see no point in betting on games that will probably come down to the last play. Of the other games, there is no doubt both lines are inflated, -2, & -3 earlier in the season has become –9. As I said earlier, the books have their reasons, The Steelers and The Eagles have seemingly improved significantly since, a Weeks rest as opposed road trips and the extra money expected from the Public. The number is still high no matter, and knowing the Books don’t give their money away, those Stats and thoughts of traps make everyone think twice, which is where the Books want everybody. To show how good these lines are, early in the Week, I was pretty confident in my bets but the views of posters I respect, Hansen, ESQAJM among others, I have tempered my enthusiasm.
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I have copied the following from an earlier post to save me typing my explanations again.
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The thing that sticks out when looking at my figures for the AFC is apart to a lesser degree Indianapolis, how similar all the Teams have played this Year. It’s easy to say run the ball and stop the run but not always easy to do. This gave me the notion that maybe the talent divide between Teams is bigger than we think. After digging up some stats, this does appear to be the case. I understand how stats can say what you want them to say and how you can get bogged down by them. So I have tried to keep things as simple as possible at all times, basically what I found overall was, compared to 2003, more Teams were less proficient running the ball and stopping the run. Below shows a few numbers:
Off Rushing Yds Per Game………………………Def Rushing Yds Per Game
YDS....No of Teams..2003……2004……YDS……..2003………2004
110-129…………..........3………..12……………80-89……….4………….1
100-109………………..9…………6…………….90-99……….2………….0
90-99…………………..4………….3……………100-109…….8………….2
80-89…………………,1…………2……………110-119…….5………….6<o></o>
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So, a quick review, the Play-off Teams in the AFC have been feasting all year on opponents who cannot run and stop the run. Putting it all together, my view is that there is not that much difference between the Teams now the easy run yards are gone.<o></o>
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It could be said Pittsburgh have proved their point by beating Philly, New England and the Jets, but bear in mind Philly are in the NFC, New England got beat by Cincy and The Jets game could have gone either way. There are a myriad of excuses for The Jets losing at Pittsburgh, including Penalties, Turnovers, wrong cleats and Injuries but my reason for favouring them goes back to the earlier findings, that there is nothing between all these Teams. The Eagles game is the same, points can be made for both sides but the over-riding factor is, nobody would be surprised if both Dogs won. There has been good points made on the Forum all Week, many though I feel, are double edged, Game film without TO for one. <o></o>
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Like Hansen pointed out in one of his threads, I am also finding the Pts spread doesn’t seem to be critical. As an Ex-Bookmaker, I am loathe to bet odds on at the best of times, and although in theory I am saying there is too many Pts available, considering the way the season has unfolded and posters reasoning, I will be betting both M/Ls, smaller on Minny because of Hansen.<o></o>
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As always, best of luck this Week-end.<o></o>
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With Stats like, home Teams 45-11 since 1990, Pittsburgh, 15-2 against The Jets, 8-2 ATS against The Jets, The Eagles have similar Stats, you can understand why the line in those 2 games have been extended beyond the norm.
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o></o>I don’t wish to get involved in the Atlanta and New England games, both which revolve around the play of Vick and Manning. I see no point in betting on games that will probably come down to the last play. Of the other games, there is no doubt both lines are inflated, -2, & -3 earlier in the season has become –9. As I said earlier, the books have their reasons, The Steelers and The Eagles have seemingly improved significantly since, a Weeks rest as opposed road trips and the extra money expected from the Public. The number is still high no matter, and knowing the Books don’t give their money away, those Stats and thoughts of traps make everyone think twice, which is where the Books want everybody. To show how good these lines are, early in the Week, I was pretty confident in my bets but the views of posters I respect, Hansen, ESQAJM among others, I have tempered my enthusiasm.
<o
></o>I have copied the following from an earlier post to save me typing my explanations again.
<o
></o>The thing that sticks out when looking at my figures for the AFC is apart to a lesser degree Indianapolis, how similar all the Teams have played this Year. It’s easy to say run the ball and stop the run but not always easy to do. This gave me the notion that maybe the talent divide between Teams is bigger than we think. After digging up some stats, this does appear to be the case. I understand how stats can say what you want them to say and how you can get bogged down by them. So I have tried to keep things as simple as possible at all times, basically what I found overall was, compared to 2003, more Teams were less proficient running the ball and stopping the run. Below shows a few numbers:
Off Rushing Yds Per Game………………………Def Rushing Yds Per Game
YDS....No of Teams..2003……2004……YDS……..2003………2004
110-129…………..........3………..12……………80-89……….4………….1
100-109………………..9…………6…………….90-99……….2………….0
90-99…………………..4………….3……………100-109…….8………….2
80-89…………………,1…………2……………110-119…….5………….6<o
></o><o
></o>So, a quick review, the Play-off Teams in the AFC have been feasting all year on opponents who cannot run and stop the run. Putting it all together, my view is that there is not that much difference between the Teams now the easy run yards are gone.<o
></o><o
></o>It could be said Pittsburgh have proved their point by beating Philly, New England and the Jets, but bear in mind Philly are in the NFC, New England got beat by Cincy and The Jets game could have gone either way. There are a myriad of excuses for The Jets losing at Pittsburgh, including Penalties, Turnovers, wrong cleats and Injuries but my reason for favouring them goes back to the earlier findings, that there is nothing between all these Teams. The Eagles game is the same, points can be made for both sides but the over-riding factor is, nobody would be surprised if both Dogs won. There has been good points made on the Forum all Week, many though I feel, are double edged, Game film without TO for one. <o
></o><o
></o>Like Hansen pointed out in one of his threads, I am also finding the Pts spread doesn’t seem to be critical. As an Ex-Bookmaker, I am loathe to bet odds on at the best of times, and although in theory I am saying there is too many Pts available, considering the way the season has unfolded and posters reasoning, I will be betting both M/Ls, smaller on Minny because of Hansen.<o
></o><o
></o>As always, best of luck this Week-end.<o
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