Dirtydog's Week #17 NFL "BEST BET" and other Selections with analysis.....Good Luck!!

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Nice Post. I hope you have a great week.

%^_Hello Scoops...

Thank you for the kind words my friend, hopefully you will have a great week as well and a Happy Happy New Year!!

Take care and be well

Dirtydog

:103631605
 

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good scenario breakdown Dog!

really feel strongly that Farvey will win his last game..... then hopefully no bullshit all year about coming back
:ohno:big game for new england, cheat-a-check is very good in those!!! bills crowd should be weak or alot will attend with free tickets?... but they got their big win last week in denver and pats should pull it off

:howdy:

Hello billbeater...

Thank you for your kind words my friend, they say "Revenge is a dish best served cold", with that in mind wouldn't it be poetic justice for the guy that the Jet organization kicked to the curb (Pennington) to come back to town with his new team and put a beat down on the Jets with their new QB for the divisional crown?

....as a side note HOW IN THE HELL did John Maddens' favorite player (Brett Favre) make the Pro Bowl this year?

Favre recently broke the all time record for career interceptions and has tossed more interceptions this year thus far than any other QB in the league, his TD to INT ratio is currently 21 to 19 with a QB rating of 84.0%....yet this guy makes the Pro Bowl.

In contrast Miami QB Chad Pennington, who was unceremoniously sent packing by the Jets when Favre became available, has thrown the LEAST amount of interceptions of any starting QB this year and he has a TD to INT ratio of 17-7...

...Pennington is completing 67% of his tosses and has a QB rating of 96.4%, thusly, I think its safe to say that Miami definately has the edge at the QB position in this contest.

The ole weather man is predicting a windy day with temps in the low 40's for Buffalo's final home game of the year, keeping in mind that the Bills played their last two games on the road and performed well in those affairs, I would look for a good turn out for the home crowd...

...Buffalo has a chance of avoiding a losing season with a win here which will give them a final record of 8-8, these Bills also have a good chance at sticking it to Mr Cut off Sweat shirt, afterall, Buffalo fans literally HATE New England.

As mentioned in my original analysis, I think the Bills have a good shot at pulling the upset, New England QB Matt Cassel might prove me wrong but I fully expect to see him choke in this situation on the road in a must win setting....all the pressure in this game is squarely on Cassel and New England.

Take care and be well my friend

Dirtydog

:wink:
 

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very nice write ups including your input on the games.. Wasn't considering those games till now..
Good Luck This Weekend

%^_Hello ThE jAcK...

Thank you for your kind words my friend...

Take care and be well

Dirtydog

:103631605
 

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NFL Week 17 Injury Report

CAROLINA PANTHERS at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
— CAROLINA: OUT: WR Kenneth Moore (hamstring). DOUBTFUL: DT Damione Lewis (shoulder). QUESTIONABLE: DT Ma’ake Kemoeatu (ankle). PROBABLE: TE Jeff King (knee), WR Muhsin Muhammad (foot), TE Dante Rosario (illness), DE Hilee Taylor (calf). NEW ORLEANS: OUT: TE Jeremy Shockey (ankle). QUESTIONABLE: DT Kendrick Clancy (hamstring), RB Pierre Thomas (wrist, back). PROBABLE: T Jammal Brown (ankle), CB Usama Young (ankle).

CHICAGO BEARS at HOUSTON TEXANS
– CHICAGO: OUT: S Mike Brown (calf). DOUBTFUL: CB Marcus Hamilton (ankle), LB Hunter Hillenmeyer (ankle), RB Kevin Jones (hamstring). QUESTIONABLE: RB Jason McKie (quadricep). PROBABLE: CB Charles Tillman (ankle). HOUSTON: QUESTIONABLE: LB Xavier Adibi (groin), S Nick Ferguson (knee). PROBABLE: DE Anthony Weaver (knee).

CLEVELAND BROWNS at PITTSBURGH STEELERS
— CLEVELAND: DOUBTFUL: TE Kellen Winslow (ankle). QUESTIONABLE: TE Darnell Dinkins (ribs), LB Leon Williams (knee), P Dave Zastudil (right knee). PROBABLE: WR Joshua Cribbs (ankle), DT Shaun Rogers (ankle), WR Donte’ Stallworth (neck), G Eric Steinbach (back), RB Lawrence Vickers (back). PITTSBURGH: OUT: S Ryan Clark (shoulder). QUESTIONABLE: LB James Harrison (hip). PROBABLE: QB Ben Roethlisberger (ankle).

DALLAS COWBOYS at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
— DALLAS: OUT: G Montrae Holland (ankle), WR Isaiah Stanback (shoulder). QUESTIONABLE: RB Marion Barber (toe). PROBABLE: CB Alan Ball (ankle), LB Bobby Carpenter (knee, calf), S Keith Davis (knee, neck), S Ken Hamlin (foot), QB Tony Romo (illness), WR Roy Williams (foot), TE Jason Witten (ankle). PHILADELPHIA: OUT: DE Victor Abiamiri (foot), G Shawn Andrews (back). DOUBTFUL: TE L.J. Smith (shoulder). QUESTIONABLE: WR Hank Baskett (knee), LB Stewart Bradley (rib, groin), S Brian Dawkins (illness). PROBABLE: WR Kevin Curtis (calf), S Quintin Demps (quadriceps), G Todd Herremans (shoulder, ankle), WR Greg Lewis (knee), T Jon Runyan (knee, ankle), RB Brian Westbrook (knee, ankle).

DENVER BRONCOS at SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
— DENVER: PROBABLE: CB Champ Bailey (groin), CB Josh Bell (knee), T Ryan Clady (ankle), TE Daniel Graham (ankle), T Ryan Harris (back), LB Niko Koutouvides (back), G Chris Kuper (hand), LB Spencer Larsen (groin), S Marquand Manuel (ankle), WR Brandon Marshall (hip), S Marlon McCree (ankle), TE Chad Mustard (knee), CB Karl Paymah (groin), WR Eddie Royal (thumb), WR Brandon Stokley (foot), LB D.J. Williams (knee, shoulder). SAN DIEGO: DOUBTFUL: WR Malcom Floyd (lung), LB Brandon Siler (foot). PROBABLE: LB Anthony Waters (hamstring), DT Jamal Williams (foot).

DETROIT LIONS at GREEN BAY PACKERS
— DETROIT: DOUBTFUL: QB Daunte Culpepper (right shoulder). QUESTIONABLE: CB Travis Fisher (concussion), LB Ernie Sims (knee), DE Corey Smith (hamstring), RB Kevin Smith (ankle), DE Dewayne White (calf). PROBABLE: DT Chuck Darby (calf), WR Calvin Johnson (knee). GREEN BAY: OUT: T Breno Giacomini (ankle), DT Justin Harrell (hip). DOUBTFUL: RB Brandon Jackson (wrist). QUESTIONABLE: RB Korey Hall (knee). PROBABLE: T Chad Clifton (knees), LB Spencer Havner (ankle), CB Joe Porter (concussion), G Jason Spitz (knee), CB Charles Woodson (toe).

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS at BALTIMORE RAVENS
— JACKSONVILLE: PROBABLE: RB Maurice Jones-Drew (knee). BALTIMORE: OUT: LB Antwan Barnes (chest), WR Marcus Maxwell (hip). QUESTIONABLE: T Willie Anderson (foot), LB Jarret Johnson (calf), WR Derrick Mason (shoulder), S Ed Reed (thigh), RB Ray Rice (calf), CB Samari Rolle (ankle), T Adam Terry (knee), CB Fabian Washington (toe). PROBABLE: WR Yamon Figurs (head), DE Trevor Pryce (illness).
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS at CINCINNATI BENGALS – KANSAS CITY: PROBABLE: DE Alfonso Boone (thigh). CINCINNATI: OUT: T Stacy Andrews (knee), QB Carson Palmer (right elbow). DOUBTFUL: T Levi Jones (hamstring). QUESTIONABLE: WR Chad Johnson (hamstring). PROBABLE: RB Cedric Benson (ankle), CB Jamar Fletcher (back), WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh (back), RB Chris Perry (ankle), DT Pat Sims (biceps), RB Kenny Watson (hamstring).

MIAMI DOLPHINS at NEW YORK JETS
— MIAMI: QUESTIONABLE: CB Will Allen (groin), LB Channing Crowder (knee). NEW YORK: QUESTIONABLE: WR Laveranues Coles (thigh), T Wayne Hunter (shoulder), LB Bryan Thomas (shoulder). PROBABLE: LB Eric Barton (knee), WR Jerricho Cotchery (shoulder), LB David Harris (groin), DE Kris Jenkins (hip).

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS at BUFFALO BILLS
— NEW ENGLAND: OUT: LB Tedy Bruschi (knee), S Raymond Ventrone (jaw), G Billy Yates (hand). QUESTIONABLE: LB Gary Guyton (ankle), T Mark LeVoir (ankle), CB Deltha O’Neal (ankle), LB Vince Redd (ankle), S James Sanders (abdomen), CB Lewis Sanders (shoulder), DE Richard Seymour (back), DE Ty Warren (groin). PROBABLE: CB Ellis Hobbs (shoulder), T Matt Light (shoulder), DT Vince Wilfork (shoulder). BUFFALO: OUT: CB Jabari Greer (knee), WR James Hardy (knee). DOUBTFUL: LB Teddy Lehman (groin), WR Roscoe Parrish (knee), T Jason Peters (knee). QUESTIONABLE: RB Marshawn Lynch (shoulder), LB Kawika Mitchell (knee).

NEW YORK GIANTS at MINNESOTA VIKINGS
— NEW YORK: OUT: CB Aaron Ross (concussion), LB Gerris Wilkinson (knee). DOUBTFUL: TE Kevin Boss (ankle, concussion). QUESTIONABLE: DT Barry Cofield (knee), RB Brandon Jacobs (knee), T Kareem McKenzie (back). PROBABLE: DT Fred Robbins (shoulder), DE Justin Tuck (lower leg). MINNESOTA: OUT: DT Pat Williams (shoulder). QUESTIONABLE: WR Bernard Berrian (ankle), T Artis Hicks (elbow), WR Darius Reynaud (foot). PROBABLE: DE Jared Allen (knee), QB Gus Frerotte (back), CB Cedric Griffin (illness), RB Maurice Hicks (back), S Darren Sharper (knee).

OAKLAND RAIDERS at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
— OAKLAND: OUT: LB Ricky Brown (groin), DE Kalimba Edwards (wrist). DOUBTFUL: WR Ronald Curry (toe). QUESTIONABLE: CB Nnamdi Asomugha (neck), RB Darren McFadden (ankle), CB Stanford Routt (groin). PROBABLE: RB Justin Fargas (neck). TAMPA BAY: QUESTIONABLE: DE Gaines Adams (ankle), LB Derrick Brooks (hamstring), DT Jovan Haye (knee), RB Clifton Smith (shoulder), DE Greg White (shoulder). PROBABLE: QB Jeff Garcia (calf), DT Chris Hovan (knee).

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS at ARIZONA CARDINALS
– SEATTLE: OUT: DE Brandon Miller (wrist). DOUBTFUL: LB LeRoy Hill (neck), LB D.D. Lewis (shin). QUESTIONABLE: K Brandon Coutu (groin), QB Matt Hasselbeck (back), WR Koren Robinson (knee). PROBABLE: CB Jordan Babineaux (concussion). ARIZONA: DOUBTFUL: DE Travis LaBoy (ankle), S Matt Ware (calf). QUESTIONABLE: RB J.J. Arrington (knee), WR Anquan Boldin (shoulder), S Aaron Francisco (ribs), DE Kenny Iwebema (concussion), TE Stephen Spach (ankle), DT Gabe Watson (team decision), S Adrian Wilson (toe). PROBABLE: CB Ralph Brown (ribs), CB Roderick Hood (knee), G Deuce Lutui (knee), WR Sean Morey (shoulder).

ST. LOUIS RAMS at ATLANTA FALCONS
— ST. LOUIS: DOUBTFUL: CB Fakhir Brown (ankle). QUESTIONABLE: G Jacob Bell (hamstring), G Richie Incognito (illness). PROBABLE: CB Eric Bassey (hamstring), TE Daniel Fells (knee), DT La’Roi Glover (knee), RB Steven Jackson (hamstring), RB Antonio Pittman (ankle). ATLANTA: QUESTIONABLE: DE John Abraham (thigh, shoulder), DE Jamaal Anderson (ankle), T Sam Baker (hip, back), WR Harry Douglas (toe, shoulder), WR Brian Finneran (calf), DT Grady Jackson (knee), WR Michael Jenkins (shoulder), S Lawyer Milloy (back), T Todd Weiner (knee), LB Coy Wire (knee).

TENNESSEE TITANS at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
— TENNESSEE: OUT: DT Albert Haynesworth (knee), C Kevin Mawae (elbow), DE Kyle Vanden Bosch (groin). DOUBTFUL: DE Dave Ball (back), CB Nicholas Harper (groin), LB David Thornton (hip). QUESTIONABLE: DT Tony Brown (ankle), RB LenDale White (illness). INDIANAPOLIS: OUT: LB Gary Brackett (fibula), RB Dominic Rhodes (chest). QUESTIONABLE: CB Melvin Bullitt (shoulder), DT Keyunta Dawson (hip), LB Freddy Keiaho (hamstring), S Bob Sanders (knee), RB Chad Simpson (ankle).

WASHINGTON REDSKINS at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
— WASHINGTON: QUESTIONABLE: LB London Fletcher (foot), DT Kedric Golston (ankle), T Jon Jansen (knee). PROBABLE: G Pete Kendall (knee). SAN FRANCISCO: PROBABLE: LB Ahmad Brooks (back), RB Frank Gore (ankle), C Eric Heitmann (abdomen), S Michael Lewis (abdomen), S Mark Roman (knee), T Adam Snyder (ankle).ankle
 

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:howdy:Hello my friends...

I thought I would post my thoughts on a few other games that I am keeping my eye on but haven't done anything with as of yet, although I might if the line moves in the right direction...

The GB-Detroit game has now moved to Green Bay laying somewhere between -11 and -12 dependig on where you look, the number opened at most shops at less than -10 which of course means that the public and/or sharps have beat this number to a pulp, it the number falls back to GB -10 I will make a small wager on the Packers.

I still haven't figured out what to do with Giant-Minny game, the line opened up with home town Minny laying -6.5 to the visiting Gints but the number is now Minny -7 at most shops, mainly because of need, because the Giants have locked up the #1 seed while the Vikes are still playing for playoff positioning...

...the Gints will in all liklihood play their starters sparingly but I still can't see HC Tom Coughlin just letting his team roll over and play dead for the Vikes, if this were a normal game my numbers show the Gints winning by 4 points which represents an 11 point reversal with regard to my numbers showing Gints by 4 points versus the current line of Gints +7...

...if the line goes to Vikes -7.5 it will be wayyyy to tempting to pass up as I will undoubtably jump on the Gints plus the 7.5 points, keep in mind that the Gints have a reliable back up QB in David Carr who is better than who the Vikes will start (Tavarus Jackson).

Kansas City is intriquing as they are a lovable loser that is still trying, the problem is that the same could be said for the Bungles as well as they have now won back to back games, albiet over struggling Washington and over dead-in-the-water Cleveland but its still a shot in the arm for Cincy...

...the Chiefs meanwhile have played well since switching to a spread offense sprinkled with some wildcat formations, Kansas City has lost three straight games but they were in each affair and those losses came against teams in playoff contention while the Bungles last two wins were over teams eliminated...

...the line opened up with Cincy -3 but has since been bet down to Cincy laying 2 or 2.5 points depending on where you look, if the line moves back upward and lands on a solid 3 again I will take the Chiefs for a small wager.

Alot of folks are on the Niners -3 over the visiting Deadskins and from the outset that seems like a good play, however, what bothers me is that it seems too darn easy...

...the Skins were on a three game losing skid but got off the ole snide last week by defeating arch rival Philly 10-3, meanwhile, the home town Niners in this contest have won 3 of their last 4 outings in straight up fashion (3-1 ATS) and are playing their final home game of the season, the Niners have also just signed Mike Singletary on to be the man for next year which should give them more motivation.

...however, I just can't put my finger on what bothers me about this game, it might be the fact that Washington has the NFL's 8th best rushing attack going up against the Niners 15th ranked rush defense, it might be the fact that Washington is a dead even 17-17 in the give-a-way take-a-way department while the Niners are a sorry 34-17 for a -17 turnover ratio...

...or it might be that Washington has the better record of these two teams, plays in the much tougher division, and wants to win this game to finish the year with a winning mark of 9-7, meanwhile, the Niners have played hard coming down the stretch in an attempt to win Mike Singletary that head coaching job, now that he has the job will the Niners simply exhale and relax?...

...Either way my numbers show the Deadskins winning by a single point, if this line happens to move to Niners -3.5 points I will make a small wager on the Skins in this affair as the value will be too hard to pass up.

As it is now my official plays are as follows:
_____________________________________________________________

RECAP OF PLAYS FOR THIS WEEK:


MIAMI +3 over Jets
Sunday 12/28/08 4:15 pm est
5*****BEST BET


HOUSTON -1 over Chicago
Sunday 12/28/08 1:00 pm est
5*****BEST BET


BALTIMORE -12.5 over Jacksonville
Sunday 12/28/08 4:15 pm est
3***Play Selection


BUFFALO +6.5 over New England
Sunday 12/28/08 1:00 pm est
3***Play Selection
_____________________________________________________________


Take care and be well my friends......GOOD LUCK!!!

Dirtydog

:wink::wink:
 

FOOTBALL FORECASTOR
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:howdy:Hello my friends...

I'm running out the door to watch the Steeler game with the wife but thought I would post my final play for today...

...as outlined above I have been watching several games for line movement and have in the end elected to place a small 2**Play Selection on WASHINGTON +3 over San Francisco.

RECAP OF PLAYS FOR THIS WEEK:


MIAMI +3
over Jets
Sunday 12/28/08 4:15 pm est
5*****BEST BET


HOUSTON -1 over Chicago
Sunday 12/28/08 1:00 pm est
5*****BEST BET


BALTIMORE -12.5 over Jacksonville
Sunday 12/28/08 4:15 pm est
3***Play Selection


BUFFALO +6.5 over New England
Sunday 12/28/08 1:00 pm est
3***Play Selection

WASHINGTON +3 over San Francisco
Sunday 12/28/08 4:15 pm est
2**Play Selection


_____________________________________________________________


Take care and be well my friends......GOOD LUCK!!!

Dirtydog

:wink::wink:
 
Last edited:

Dain Bramaged
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Have a feeling you are going to have a HUGE day!!

Enjoy :toast:
 

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Have a feeling you are going to have a HUGE day!!

:howdy:Hello Twisted_One...

Thank you my friend, as it is you were entirely correct in that I was fortunate enough to nail down BOTH of my 5*****BEST BET's and overall posted a mark of 3-1-1 ATS this week with my five selections for +9.70 units...

...I've been pretty hot over the past three weeks in going 12-4-1 ATS for a winning rate of 75.00%, hopefully it'll carry over to the playoffs.

Take care and be well my friend

Dirtydog

:smoker2:
 

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DirtyDog,Nice job today on your picks as I tailed you on Houston & Miami today!:toast:
 

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DirtyDog,Nice job today on your picks as I tailed you on Houston & Miami today!

:howdy:Hello Gravy...

Thank you for the kind words my friend, Houston and Miami were my two BEST BET's today and fortunately I nailed them both for 5 units each, it was a good day overall as well in going 3-1-1 ATS, I wish Buffalo hadn't blew their scoring opportunity just before the half when they stupidly let the time run out on them.

I really liked the Gints and Cards today as well but unfortunately didnt play them, as I outlined in an earlier posting in this thread it was hard to believe the G-Men were being spotted that many points regardless of them resting players or not, afterall, it was Minny they were playing for goodness sakes...

...if the line hadn't shot up so rapidly on the Cards I would have played them as well, the point spread opened with Arizona -3.5 and almost immediately shot up to -6.5 and closed out at -7, needless to say with that much action on Arizona I stayed far away from that game.

Take care my friend and good luck in the playoffs!

Dirtydog

:wink:
 

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Nicely done DirtyDog :pope:

With you on Mia, Houston, against you on 49ers... turned into a +++ day afterall.:dancefool

Thanks and BOL this playoffs... will keep an eye out for your writeups.:toast:
 

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Props to you sir. I followed your slections and of course am very happy. If not for poor poor coaching, clock mgmt, etc (did I say how poor it was?) Buff should have at least pushed.%^_
 

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Nicely done DirtyDog :pope:

With you on Mia, Houston, against you on 49ers... turned into a +++ day afterall.:dancefool

Thanks and BOL this playoffs... will keep an eye out for your writeups.

:howdy:Hello tbonestk...

Thank you for the kind words my friend, yeah I LOVED Miami and Houston as well, I ended up snagging Washington +3 but got a PUSH with it...oh well.

Take care and be well my friend

:103631605
 

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Props to you sir. I followed your slections and of course am very happy. If not for poor poor coaching, clock mgmt, etc (did I say how poor it was?) Buff should have at least pushed.

:howdy:Hello doogieboy...

Thank you my friend, I ended up a happy camper and you ended up a happy camper but I am quite sure our books haven't been happy campers!!

Take care and have a Safe and Happy New Year!!

Dirtydog

:wink:
 

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Nice job you dirty dog! Your 5's have been $$!

:howdy:Hello Ketch...

Thank you for the kind words my friend.

Take care and have a Safe and Happy New Year!!

Dirtydog

:103631605
 

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