OK, did some math and thought I would share.
First, I know that there are a lot of reasons to choose a book but I wanted to do a heads up comparison on discounted lines compared to bonus dollars.
Second, there are many variables in the comparison calculation. Some I hold constant - so your mileage will vary.
Assumption: Whatever amount you have to wager (X amount) you will have more to wager with the bonus (X amount + bonus). One cycle through will be X amount for the non bonus side and X amount + bonus for the bonus side.
OK for the variables (some I'm holding constant):
Bonus percent - I'm using a 10 percent bonus
Rollover - I'm using 5x rollover. Obviously the more rollover the more in favor of reduced juice and vversa.
Juice - compare dime lines to 20 cent lines. -105 ats compared to -110 ats. The more favorites you play the more it moves in favor of reduced juice (eg. -235 vs -240). The more long shots you play the more it moves in favor the bonus(eg. +175 vs +170). For this run through I will use -105 and -110.
Average winning percentage - At the end of the day it all comes down to winning the bet. The higher the percentage of wining is the more in the bonus favor it goes and vversa (if the bonus is above the juice diff which in this example it is).
So the setup is:
10% bonus 5X rollover -110 vs 0% bonus 5X rollover -105
The break even is a winning percent of approx. 54%. i.e. at 54% neither has the advantage.
At 50% winning you would have lost $120 per 1000 (at 5X) on the Reduced juice compared to 150/1000 on the Bonus line (actually lost 250 - 100 bonus dollars).
At 60% winning you would have won 857/1000 on reduced juice compared to 900/1000 on the bonus line (800 winnings plus 100 bonus).
At 100% ..... send me your picks and I'll do the bookkeeping for you:toast:
First, I know that there are a lot of reasons to choose a book but I wanted to do a heads up comparison on discounted lines compared to bonus dollars.
Second, there are many variables in the comparison calculation. Some I hold constant - so your mileage will vary.
Assumption: Whatever amount you have to wager (X amount) you will have more to wager with the bonus (X amount + bonus). One cycle through will be X amount for the non bonus side and X amount + bonus for the bonus side.
OK for the variables (some I'm holding constant):
Bonus percent - I'm using a 10 percent bonus
Rollover - I'm using 5x rollover. Obviously the more rollover the more in favor of reduced juice and vversa.
Juice - compare dime lines to 20 cent lines. -105 ats compared to -110 ats. The more favorites you play the more it moves in favor of reduced juice (eg. -235 vs -240). The more long shots you play the more it moves in favor the bonus(eg. +175 vs +170). For this run through I will use -105 and -110.
Average winning percentage - At the end of the day it all comes down to winning the bet. The higher the percentage of wining is the more in the bonus favor it goes and vversa (if the bonus is above the juice diff which in this example it is).
So the setup is:
10% bonus 5X rollover -110 vs 0% bonus 5X rollover -105
The break even is a winning percent of approx. 54%. i.e. at 54% neither has the advantage.
At 50% winning you would have lost $120 per 1000 (at 5X) on the Reduced juice compared to 150/1000 on the Bonus line (actually lost 250 - 100 bonus dollars).
At 60% winning you would have won 857/1000 on reduced juice compared to 900/1000 on the bonus line (800 winnings plus 100 bonus).
At 100% ..... send me your picks and I'll do the bookkeeping for you:toast:
