Steve Makinen breaks down data from the last 3 1/2 seasons of NFL football to determine true home-field advantage.Determining the NFL’s true home-field advantage:
One of the most important and debated factors in handicapping pro football games is in determining how much weight to be given to home-field advantage. The numbers have varied greatly in recent years and were influenced greatly by the COVID-19 pandemic and the policies instituted by leagues or teams, but now that we’re back in what seems to be full-blown normalcy again, it never hurts to look at the subject closely again to see if anything has changed. I usually do this around the midpoint of every football season, but it had to be pushed back a bit for various reasons, and you’ll see shortly why I regret having to do so. That said, there’s never a bad time to revisit the subject of home-field advantage, and specifically, what it is worth from a quantitative perspective. You can find my college football home-field advantage study here.A few of the things I set out to find when breaking down my data over the last 3 1/2 seasons of pro football were 1) Has home-field advantage picked up or dropped off recently? 2) Have oddsmakers adjusted appropriately for any changes? 3) Have any teams set themselves apart in terms of home-field performance?
In my history of oddsmaking, and since doing the strength ratings for VSiN, I have always found that one of the most important factors in analyzing teams’ strengths is determining how much home-field advantage to assign. I remember many years ago always hearing that three points should be the typical HFA. It actually dropped in half when the games were played in empty or near-empty stadiums during the pandemic. I also know some handicappers issue a standard two to three points depending on how much they value that particular factor. Others such as myself develop team-specific home-field edges, assuming some environments are tougher than others across the football landscape.
Let’s face it, we almost have to do the team-specific method as bettors because there are many reasons why certain teams have a more definitive home-field advantage than others. Among these are weather, field surface as it fits the roster, crowd capacity/enthusiasm, confidence level of a team and perhaps even distractions for a visiting team. The degree to which these things factor into play can also vary from season to season based on how a team is faring. For instance, this season, the Bears have come to benefit a lot from their home-field advantage, while the prominent edge the Cowboys have enjoyed in recent seasons is all but gone. I am positive that there is no way that every team’s advantage is the same. Judging home-field edges as equal across the board can lead to mistakes and missed betting opportunities. I am also sure that you will be convinced after I share my quantified performance results.
To determine which teams hold the best true home-field advantage, I have taken the teams’ game logs at home since the start of the 2021 season, or essentially the last 3 1/2 seasons. I compared their average power rating in those games to their opponents’ average power rating, using my actual logged numbers for every game. This margin would be considered the amount they should have won or lost by when meeting on a neutral field, or the expected margin. I then compared this amount to the actual point differential the team accumulated in those games. Obviously, the teams that had a greater actual differential than expected differential played the “best” at home. The top home-field edge belonged to Detroit at +6.3, while the worst went to Washington at -1.5.
I mentioned a bit of regret earlier as I didn’t take into account enough some of the changing patterns in HFA this season when it comes to my Best Bets. I apologize. Had I looked more closely, I probably would have backed away from fading the Bears on Sunday and backing the Cowboys on “Monday Night Football.” I’ll know better moving forward.
In general, I believe most bookmakers will assign an average of about 2.0 points to a home team in the NFL. The NFL average over the last 3 1/2 seasons has crept back up to around 2.0 after hovering around the 1.6 mark in last year’s study. That said, for the 2024 season, I am officially adjusting my figures to average 2.0 for true home-field advantage in the NFL.
One important thing to note, I don’t specifically assign the home-field ratings following the exact order of the true home-field rating, as I also give strong consideration to the straight-up and ATS records, as well as the perceived difficulty of playing at a particular stadium. In recent years of this study, I have found that single games in which a team won or lost big have tended to falsely affect the overall ratings. That said, again for 2024, I have removed the two best and two worst point-spread losses for every team during the 3 1/2 year span from the calculations. These results are still noted in the SU and ATS records but they didn’t factor into the formulas.
Let’s take a quick look at some of the other highlights I have found from my pro football home-field advantage study, then stay tuned over the next couple of days as I do the same exercise for road performance.
NFL Home-Field Advantage Study Highlights
· The division with the best overall true home-field advantage rating is the NFC North, at +3.65. That is almost 0.7 points better than the AFC East (+2.98) and AFC North (+2.88). It doesn’t seem coincidental that these three divisions are in volatile weather areas, and only Detroit and Minnesota play indoors in those divisions.· The division with the worst collective true home-field advantage is the NFC South, with three of the four teams at +1 or less or even in negative territory. The four teams in that division combine for a +0.7 True HF rating. The NFC West (+1.0) is close, however.
· Three teams boast home-field records of better than 70% since the start of the 2021 NFL season. They are Kansas City (29-7), Buffalo (27-7) and Green Bay (21-9). Of the three, only the Packers are at home this week, hosting the 49ers.
· The worst outright home record since the start of 2021 is shared by the Patriots and Cardinals at 10-20. Interestingly, the Cardinals are 4-2 at home in 2024, which explains why they are leading the NFC West. No other teams have won less than 33% of their home games since the start of 2021, although the Panthers are at 34%.
· Only two teams have compiled ATS records of at least 60% in the NFL at home since the start of the 2021 season, and strangely, they are divisional rivals with completely different environments in terms of weather and fan engagement. They are Detroit (22-8 ATS) and Green Bay (18-12 ATS). Las Vegas (59%) and Pittsburgh (57%) have also been good covers at home. The Packers host the 49ers this weekend in a big NFC game, while the Raiders welcome the Broncos in a game that could be overlooked for upset potential.
· Four teams have gone under 40% ATS at home over the last 3 1/2 seasons. They are Atlanta (10-20 ATS), New England (10-18 ATS), New Orleans (10-17 ATS) and Carolina (11-17 ATS). Of these, Carolina is the only one hosting a game on Sunday, versus Kansas City.
· The four teams that have played to the average biggest point spreads at home are Buffalo (-9.3), San Francisco (-7.1), Kansas City (-6.9) and Dallas (-6). None of these teams is at home this weekend.
· Three teams have been worse than three-point underdogs at home in recent seasons — the Texans (+3.3), Jets (+3.2) and Giants (+3.1). The Texans are home this weekend, hosting divisional rival Tennessee, but obviously they will not be an underdog.
· Four teams have averaged at least 27 PPG in their home games over the last 3 1/2 seasons, they are:
DALLAS — 31.1 PPG
DETROIT—30.8
BUFFALO—29.9
PHILADELPHIA— 28.7
· Three teams have allowed fewer than 18 PPG in home games since the start of the 2021 season:
BUFFALO — 17.0 PPG
DENVER — 17.9
CLEVELAND — 17.9
· The only teams that have outscored opponents by more than 9.0 PPG at home since 2021 are Buffalo (+12.9 PPG) and Dallas (+9.0).
· Comparing how much teams have won by at home with how much they were supposed to win by based on average power ratings, the top teams for true home-field advantage in the NFL over the last 3 1/2 seasons have been:
1. DETROIT +6.3
2. BUFFALO +5.3
3. BALTIMORE +5.1
4. DALLAS +4.7
5. MIAMI +3.6
Of those five teams, only Miami is at home on Sunday, hosting New England.
· The teams with the worst true home-field advantage ratings based on their home performances over the last 3 1/2 seasons are:
1. WASHINGTON -1.5
2. CAROLINA -0.9
3. NEW YORK GIANTS -0.7
4. ARIZONA -0.5
5. ATLANTA +0
This weekend, Washington hosts Dallas and Carolina welcomes Kansas City to town.
Here’s the list of all 32 NFL teams and their home-field performance on the chart below. They are sorted in order of TRUE HOME-FIELD ADVANTAGE rating.
