Derby winner American Pharoah draws unfavorable No. 1 post for Preakness.

[TheComputerGroup]

Victor can leave the whip in the jocks room......Cake walk in my opinion.

I agree......AP will wire this field. Coming from post #1, he has only one shot, & that's to go to the front........& he will do so by wiring the field.

 

[JustinCruise]

lets see, you are going to get 4/5 on a horse used hard to barely win his last race at an incredibly slow time and the 1 post.
maybe look at something else

I think the value betting against him will be found in the Belmont when he is 1-5 after trouncing the field in the Preakness

 

[fade2win]

American Pharoah wins Preakness Stakes -120

American Pharoah wins Preakness not Belmont +180

American Pharoah wins Triple Crown +290

American Pharoah won't win Triple Crown -350


5dimes

 

[slapshot]

AP won't hit the board

 

[GoSooners]

I'm glad everybody's on the same page...LOL

 

[arniesarmy]

If AP is the best horse, I just don't see where he can use the 1 hole as an excuse if he loses in an eight-horse field. Even if he gets pinched in the first turn, he has a lot of time to make up for it. Don't think he is worth an odds-on bet, but don't think the 1-hole can be used an excuse if he loses. I'll probably bet Firing Line.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

If AP is the best horse, I just don't see where he can use the 1 hole as an excuse if he loses in an eight-horse field. Even if he gets pinched in the first turn, he has a lot of time to make up for it. Don't think he is worth an odds-on bet, but don't think the 1-hole can be used an excuse if he loses. I'll probably bet Firing Line.

I agree, he's been hyped up as the next coming of Seattle Slew......but that slow derby time, I don't see the comparison.

Baffert hyped him up a lot in previous months leading up to the derby saying he's the best horse he's ever had.....& for Baffert to say those words, I believe he knows he has a special horse.

AP out of the #1 post in a 8 horse field should still win if he's a great horse.

I think he wires the field w/o being whipped in the Preakness......I think Dortmund bounces off his derby performance.

 

[Greenbacks]

And down the stretch they come

 

[carlspackler]

Post 1 would be fine at almost any other track.
pimlico is different

Why? Honest question.

 

[Betallsports]

Why? Honest question.

Well it was posted above about pimlico race track's Tight turns.

I will add a few other things, From the gate with post #1 most horses get squeezed from the rail when the gate opens.
Going back to the 1960's, there has only been ONE horse to win the Preakness from the rail, and that was in 1986 and if you take the last 28 years, post position #1 has a 4% winning %
The Horse I like ( I liked him in the Derby ) #2 has a 0% winning % ... meaning the #2 position has Not won in the last 28 years.
Now if AP plans on shooting out of the gate like a cannon, the Jockey should re-think as well... There has been only TWO horse to wire the field in the past 25 Years. Last time was the Great Filly Rachel Alexandra

I will note that the info above has only been historically for the Preakness ( Post #1 ) * Everyday racing, Post #1 has a 23-24% Winning %

and for the people saying well it's only a 8 horse field, the Avg. Field over the years is 10

I'm not trying to take anything away from AP ( but in no way is he the Greatest Horse of anything ) I think I can say this because I've seen .....Secretariat race live twice, and he was by far the Best.
anyway, That's my 2.5 cents

 

[fade2win]

Cali Chrome > AP

and Cali Chrome is not on the same page as a "Great Horse"

 

[Akillies]

The prop odds on 10 lengths+ would be interesting to know. Any ideas?

<cite>American Pharoah must run for action</cite>
Sat 5/16		671 Victory Margin: 8 lengths or more		<input id="editx" name="M1_77" size="4"> +940
6:15PM		672 Victory Margin: 7 3/4 lengths or less		<input id="editx" name="M2_77" size="4"> -1675

<tbody>
</tbody>

 

[Akillies]

<cite>American Pharoah must run for action</cite>
Sat 5/16		673 Victory Margin: 11 lengths or more		<input id="editx" name="M1_78" size="4"> +1600

<tbody>
</tbody>

 

[jimmythegreek]

Espinoza whipped American Pharoah 32 times down the stretch of its Derby win, despite one of the slowest Derby races in the last decade and a half.

if the horse is tons the best why did he need 32 cracks to get the job done.

anybody ever watched horses run before lol.

 

[wabashwonders]

Every year we hear about the tight turns at Pimlico but this is a myth and not true at all. The layout of Pimlico is very similar to Churchill Downs. If you took an overview of Pimlico and placed it on top of an overview of Churchill there are identical. The difference is the banking of the tracks. Churchill has a slight banking around the turns where as Pimlico is relatively flat. But the turns themselves are identical. Here is a story explaining it from today's USA today edition...

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sport...pimlico-debunking-myths-tight-turns/27340749/

 

[JudgeWapner]

I'll take a shot with a horse from off the pace. Not many in this race who can close.

 

[wabashwonders]

I'll take a shot with a horse from off the pace. Not many in this race who can close.

With AP and Dortmund both on the inside I think the pace will be much quicker than the Derby. I think we could see a closer steal this race. I like Divining Rod to stalk the pace behind the top 3(and probably Mr. Z) and then run them down in stretch.

 

[JudgeWapner]

WW, that"s my thinking. Looking at DR as well as Danzig Moon.

 

[JudgeWapner]

Hmm Tale of the Verve is interesting.

 

[GoSooners]

Every year we hear about the tight turns at Pimlico but this is a myth and not true at all. The layout of Pimlico is very similar to Churchill Downs. If you took an overview of Pimlico and placed it on top of an overview of Churchill there are identical. The difference is the banking of the tracks. Churchill has a slight banking around the turns where as Pimlico is relatively flat. But the turns themselves are identical. Here is a story explaining it from today's USA today edition...

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sport...pimlico-debunking-myths-tight-turns/27340749/

Doesn't this first turn at Pimlico come up quicker than it dies at Churchill or Belmont? It's always seemed to me that Pimlico has a quick first turn but a long down the stretch run.