Denver @ Indy Thoughts

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Rx. Senior
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No mirages or smoke screens about these two, and to a point, have played up to expectations. Both have put in disappointing games this Year and looking for excuses or reasons could give a false impression. Last Year Indianapolis played their only flat game of the season in defeat to Denver and then took advantage of Denvers weaknesses in the Play-offs. Although Denver players talk of the humiliation and others talk of a revenge factor, it has to be remembered, no motivation is needed this time of the Year.

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What was taken out of that game was the realisation to Shanahan that to progress any further, he had to get a good secondary at all costs. That cost of course was Clinton Portis. I was not surprised at the trade, as I have always believed Shanahan was never sold on Portis, but would have had to twist many arms to get his way. Shanahan got his top CB and added John Lynch to a budding secondary. Although they lost Berry, it’s not easy to know how much with the absence of Pryce through injury. So, this is the litmus test, are all Shanahans plans going to come good.

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The Colts high scoring this Year has once again, made people forget about their desperate Defense and even for some to say it’s improved. They are awful against the run, looking particularly bad lately against Baltimore and Houston. Denver will have no trouble running, so to me, it all comes back to the secondary stopping The Colts, if they do that, they win. I am optimistic that they can be successful, a lot will depend on the fitness of Pryce, but now that he has had his wishes, you can be sure Shanahan has played this game a thousand times in his head. The 10pt spread seems way too high, so it’s M/L for me, covering the stake with the spread.

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Like The Rams game yesterday, I haven’t a clue of the outcome in the Green Bay game. All I can say is lately, for sporting, interest bets, I rely on the two Dogs next door. If I see the Alsatian first, it’s a home win, Terrier, road. The Alsatian is sitting out there now.
 

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Winbet:

First, wanted to congratulate you on hitting the Jets ML yesterday. As usual, you present a thoughtful argument for the Broncos today and taking the ML is a bold step indeed. I too thought the pick-up of Champ Bailey and John Lynch was a wise decision by Shanahan in light of the "no touch" rules now currently in place. Since championships are won with defense, having shutdown corners and solid free safeties is paramount to winning. The release of Portis was easily replaceable as it is the Denver offensive line blocking scheme that dictates the success of the run, no matter who the back is behind it. That being said, can't help but remember Marvin Harrison turning another shutdown cornerback Chris McAllister of the Ravens on his ear with an outside in move that completely turned him around and left Harrison yards open in the end zone. Honestly, don't believe this Bronco defense is good enough to stop the Colts offense. Now, that being said, it is still open to question whether the Colts defense can stop the Broncos either. That's why they play the games. As always, best of luck to you today.
 

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Hey Winbet..

Like Ted I would like to extend my congrats on the JET moneyline win as well, personally I stayed away from the side and simply played the UNDER 42 in the game, hopefully you won't mind but I had already posted my thoughts about the Denver/indy game in another thread and am going to just re-post in yours for your consideration....good luck today!

Ted...I have come to really enjoy reading your thoughts and analysis on the various games, good luck with the OVER in the GB/minny game, I played GB -6 in that one and because of the excellent write up you did on the OVER also played a moneyline parlay with GB and OVER 50...good luck today!

Hey ego74...

Nice writeups!

I must disagree with you however on your colt selecion, not including their final game against Denver because they rested players, we see that these colts only played five games against opponents with a top 10 defense...New England, Baltimore, San Diego, and Jacksonville ( twice ).

The colts went 3-2 straight up and 2-2-1 ATS in those games overall, however, the colts margin of victory was only by a meager 3 points in three of those games ( against NE, Jags, and SD ) and in these five games against top 10 defenses the colts largest margin of victory was by 10 points over Baltimore ( 20-10 ), however, keep in mind that Baltimore is "Offenseless" and of these top 10 defenses had the lowest ranked offense at #16.

Of the five games the colts played against these top 10 defenses this season, only New England and San Diego fielded a top 10 offense to go along with their top 10 defense...New England defeated the colts 27-24 and San Diego lost in OT 34-31...both games were decided by a FG.

Enter Denver in this playoff game against the colts...as 10 point dogs...a look at how Denver has fared statisically this season shows that the Broncos finished with the NFL's #3 offense and finished with the NFL's #3 defense.

Thus, Denver falls into the pattern of having a top 10 offense AND a top 10 defense and as we already know as illustrated above, these colts have struggled against both New England and San Diego who also field top 10 offensive and defensive units going 1-1 straight up and 0-1-1 ATS in those games.

Most think this is the same Denver team that got rocked by the colts 41-10 in last years wildcard round as 3 point dogs, however, this is a very different team as Denver HC Mike Shanahan acquired DB's John Lynch and Champ Bailey during the off-season for the express purpose of handling the colts in a playoff rematch.

My money is firmly on Denver +10 in this game as I feel this is way too many points for the colts to be laying, I also played a little on the Money-Line because it will not surprise me in the least if Denver wins this game with an UPSET.


take care and good luck!

Deb
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Rx. Senior
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Thanks Deb, you must type fast, that would take me a good hour to do. It seems a few of us at least, are on the same page.
Good Luck
 

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Hey Winbet...

I'm an Advertising Exec, which of course means that I pound on my laptop all day long and then use my desktop to handicap by evening....thanks for the kind words and good luck to us!

Deb
 

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winbet

love it my friend:103631605 say do you have any golden doodles over there (mixture of golden retriever and standard poodle)????

if the favs go down today -- so will the jameson:drink:


gl
 

Rx. Senior
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Ted,

As always, best of luck today, I shall be cheering your over on. As for my bet being bold, 5/1 in a match never worries me, odds-on does. I must also point out that I am not locked into any bet as I have Betfair in-running available to me.
 

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Remember when you bet the Broncos you are dealing with a subpar over paid QB!!
 

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