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SPEEDFIGURES . COM -- DAILY SPOT PLAY
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DEL MAR -- Race #4 -- TOP INGREDIENTS (#9)
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The 4th race is a $32,000 maiden claiming race for Cal-bred fillies with a
par of 95. TOP INGREDIENTS will be very tough to beat today as she comes
off a hard fought 2nd against a similar field last time out. The Wally
Dollase filly will be making her 3rd lifetime start and really hasn't run a
bad race yet. She was off slow in her first start but made solid ground at
every point of call while earning an 85-91+ back in mid-May. On June 22nd
she was up closer to the early pace while stalking behind the leaders, made
a nice move between horses in the 2 path and then fought to the wire in a
narrow loss while earning a 92-96. The raw time for that 6-1/2 furlong
sprint was a slow 1:19 but the adjusted figures were actually slightly
better than par for the level because the track that day was playing
extremely slow all day. Straight maiden fillies went 7 furlongs earlier in
the day in a 1:25 and change and a high level field of 3 year old claimers
went 6-1/2 in 1:17 and change. So the effort of TOP INGREDIENTS was very
good and another big one should be on tap for today.
DANCES ON CLOUDS usually gets a lot of betting in these races. Her early
speed is an asset, but she's lost 7 times already and has racked up 4
seconds and a third in her 5 tries against maiden claimers. She just lacks
the will to win and has become a tease for the win spot at this level. Last
time out she was in front of TOP INGREDIENTS early but the other filly
blasted right past her at the top of the stretch. DANCES ON CLOUDS held 3rd
but was never a threat to the top pick and it's doubtful that she would
suddenly turn the tables today. With her "close but no cigar" record it's
obvious she has a chance to hit the board for the exotics but there are a
few others who might go overlooked and will offer better value in the
exotics.
In the maiden claiming ranks I always pay close attention to the pace figure
earned by each filly and give a big look to any lightly raced maiden
claiming horse who earned a big pace figure against better horses and drops
today. LAURA'S THEME fits that profile to a "T" and should be considered
the major threat to TOP INGREDIENTS. At 10-1 morning line you need to use
that combination for the exotics. LAURA'S THEME will only be making her 2nd
start so immediately has a big reason to improve, but also earned a solid
100 pace figure against Cal-bred straight maidens before fading. She was
steadied at the start that day and ran a big race for the first three points
of call. Tyler Baze should have her much closer to the pace today. She
really is a major threat in here and if the price on TOP INGREDIENTS goes
way down while this filly gets overlooked you may want to go for the value.
MORNING RISER also has talent but has been her own worst enemy. She's
making her 3rd career start today and has been under the care of a new
trainer in each start. Today it's Jeff Mullins who manages her and he
claimed her for $50,000 last time out. He's already taking a drop with her
and is trying to tweak her with an equipment change by taking off the
blinkers. She was bet down to the role of favorite last time out but was
acting up terribly before the race and only ran for about 1/4 mile. She's
obviously better than that race indicates but she's also shown herself to be
a bit of a freak so it's not surprising that Jeff Mullins immediately had to
give her a few months off. He may have figured out how to make her run but
he may also be disappointed with his claim. Since she drew the rail off the
layoff and has so many question marks I would leave her completely off any
ticket until she proves that she will actually run a race without losing her
mind before the start.
TOP INGREDIENTS is the reliable one in here and is the spot play. I
recommend using her with the 10-1 shot LAURA'S THEME in a quinella because
both of them may run big races today. DANCES ON CLOUDS has a legitimate
shot only at the minor awards and won't offer any value if teamed up with
TOP INGREDIENTS. I won't use her for that reason alone. I like the first
combo mentioned and will concentrate on that in here. Good luck.
Handicapper: Matt Matuska
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other Del Mar comments
SPEEDFIGURES . COM -- DAILY SPOT PLAY
____________________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________________
DEL MAR -- Race #4 -- TOP INGREDIENTS (#9)
____________________________________________________________________
The 4th race is a $32,000 maiden claiming race for Cal-bred fillies with a
par of 95. TOP INGREDIENTS will be very tough to beat today as she comes
off a hard fought 2nd against a similar field last time out. The Wally
Dollase filly will be making her 3rd lifetime start and really hasn't run a
bad race yet. She was off slow in her first start but made solid ground at
every point of call while earning an 85-91+ back in mid-May. On June 22nd
she was up closer to the early pace while stalking behind the leaders, made
a nice move between horses in the 2 path and then fought to the wire in a
narrow loss while earning a 92-96. The raw time for that 6-1/2 furlong
sprint was a slow 1:19 but the adjusted figures were actually slightly
better than par for the level because the track that day was playing
extremely slow all day. Straight maiden fillies went 7 furlongs earlier in
the day in a 1:25 and change and a high level field of 3 year old claimers
went 6-1/2 in 1:17 and change. So the effort of TOP INGREDIENTS was very
good and another big one should be on tap for today.
DANCES ON CLOUDS usually gets a lot of betting in these races. Her early
speed is an asset, but she's lost 7 times already and has racked up 4
seconds and a third in her 5 tries against maiden claimers. She just lacks
the will to win and has become a tease for the win spot at this level. Last
time out she was in front of TOP INGREDIENTS early but the other filly
blasted right past her at the top of the stretch. DANCES ON CLOUDS held 3rd
but was never a threat to the top pick and it's doubtful that she would
suddenly turn the tables today. With her "close but no cigar" record it's
obvious she has a chance to hit the board for the exotics but there are a
few others who might go overlooked and will offer better value in the
exotics.
In the maiden claiming ranks I always pay close attention to the pace figure
earned by each filly and give a big look to any lightly raced maiden
claiming horse who earned a big pace figure against better horses and drops
today. LAURA'S THEME fits that profile to a "T" and should be considered
the major threat to TOP INGREDIENTS. At 10-1 morning line you need to use
that combination for the exotics. LAURA'S THEME will only be making her 2nd
start so immediately has a big reason to improve, but also earned a solid
100 pace figure against Cal-bred straight maidens before fading. She was
steadied at the start that day and ran a big race for the first three points
of call. Tyler Baze should have her much closer to the pace today. She
really is a major threat in here and if the price on TOP INGREDIENTS goes
way down while this filly gets overlooked you may want to go for the value.
MORNING RISER also has talent but has been her own worst enemy. She's
making her 3rd career start today and has been under the care of a new
trainer in each start. Today it's Jeff Mullins who manages her and he
claimed her for $50,000 last time out. He's already taking a drop with her
and is trying to tweak her with an equipment change by taking off the
blinkers. She was bet down to the role of favorite last time out but was
acting up terribly before the race and only ran for about 1/4 mile. She's
obviously better than that race indicates but she's also shown herself to be
a bit of a freak so it's not surprising that Jeff Mullins immediately had to
give her a few months off. He may have figured out how to make her run but
he may also be disappointed with his claim. Since she drew the rail off the
layoff and has so many question marks I would leave her completely off any
ticket until she proves that she will actually run a race without losing her
mind before the start.
TOP INGREDIENTS is the reliable one in here and is the spot play. I
recommend using her with the 10-1 shot LAURA'S THEME in a quinella because
both of them may run big races today. DANCES ON CLOUDS has a legitimate
shot only at the minor awards and won't offer any value if teamed up with
TOP INGREDIENTS. I won't use her for that reason alone. I like the first
combo mentioned and will concentrate on that in here. Good luck.
Handicapper: Matt Matuska
Click here for
other Del Mar comments
